Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace"

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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#141 » by AussieRules » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:39 pm

G35 wrote:
XxIronChainzxX wrote:
AussieRules wrote:
He is TOP 10 ALL TIME. No question.


He's not. And he simply can't break into. His peak is not good enough and his longevity doesn't get him there. All he has are his # of titles, and 3 of them come when he played with an actual top 10 guy. Anyone else he's up against as a potential top 10 guy would have won in his place.

See? It's this nonsense that starts it all.



Was Shaq a top 10 player in 2000?

You only get ranked higher AFTER you win titles.

Like Dwyane Wade would not be ranked as high as he is if he only won the one title in 2006. Or does that mean Lebron was playing with a top 20 guy for two of his titles?

See this is they hypocrisy you see all the time.

The problem with Lebron is (and you'll see it in the responses) all the players he played with got WORSE playing next to Lebron.

All the players that played next to Kobe got BETTER. All the players who were better next to Kobe:

Shaq won his only MVP next to Kobe
Pau became more efficient and a better rebounder next to Kobe
Lamar Odom
Bynum
Ariza


Then you look at Lebron

Wade was worse
Bosh was worse
Love was worse
Kyrie bailed

There is a lot of pressure on Lebron to prove he can enable talent like Kobe did multiple times. Its easy to be ball dominant and stack stats...its much harder to enable your teammates to be great at the same time, which Lebron has not shown he can do......


Smush went from being one of the worst players of all time, to having his 2 best years next to Kobe. Then went back to being one of the worst players in history of the NBA after the lakers didn’t bring him back.
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#142 » by BIG Game » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:58 pm

Advanced Analytics will allow you to build Momentum and Pace if used correctly. To me Analytics are nothing more than a new tool. I watched a video where Bezos talked about the internet being similar to electricity. The infrastructure for electricity was built initially so that people could have light bulbs in their houses. Because that infrastructure was developed, it allowed appliances to be brought into homes. As you can image the first appliances were huge and inefficient. As time went on they became cheaper and better until a completely new infrastructure was built to support. The idea is that initially we got bad products but over time they became better and better until they are common place. Those first adaptors had to work through months/years of market tension but eventually it became commonplace. Analytics like the internet is the same; initially it was slow clunky and not reliable. However, as time has gone on it’s become common place. So much so, that teams are developing their own stats and their own staffs to find insight. It’s a new tool that has over time developed, and I think that some of these older players remember the clunky period and don’t see the value.
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#143 » by johanliebert » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:19 pm

BIG Game wrote:Advanced Analytics will allow you to build Momentum and Pace if used correctly. To me Analytics are nothing more than a new tool. I watched a video where Bezos talked about the internet being similar to electricity. The infrastructure for electricity was built initially so that people could have light bulbs in their houses. Because that infrastructure was developed, it allowed appliances to be brought into homes. As you can image the first appliances were huge and inefficient. As time went on they became cheaper and better until a completely new infrastructure was built to support. The idea is that initially we got bad products but over time they became better and better until they are common place. Those first adaptors had to work through months/years of market tension but eventually it became commonplace. Analytics like the internet is the same; initially it was slow clunky and not reliable. However, as time has gone on it’s become common place. So much so, that teams are developing their own stats and their own staffs to find insight. It’s a new tool that has over time developed, and I think that some of these older players remember the clunky period and don’t see the value.

analytics is far from new..NBA teams have used analytics since kobe was drafted teams are just letting fans get privy now tho so the casual fan believes hes an expert.

a couch potatoe cant relate to playing at a competitive level but some of these stats are readily available to them.
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#144 » by snaquille oatmeal » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:41 pm

My favorite part of analytics is the anal part...durum dum
Said the 12 year old in me
Not literally in me! That be jail bait....durum dum!
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#145 » by Luke » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:43 pm

tv24lakers wrote:
KyRo23 wrote:Kind of rich coming from Kobe, a guy who went for numbers instead of winning for awhile.


Yes, because we all know how badly Kobe wanted the team to tank so he can jack up his stats. :crazy:



It's incredible to see such false statements coming from people who should know something about basketball.

Kobe asked to be traded from the Lakers after his best scoring seasons of his career, because he wanted to win championships.

He could have been satisfied with his stats (62 in 3 quarters, 81; 35+ points per game...), but he wanted to win, and gladly shared the stats with Gasol in order to be competitive and win...
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#146 » by picc » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:52 pm

Kobe back dominating the GB again...

Feels good mayne.
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#147 » by BIG Game » Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:05 pm

johanliebert wrote:
BIG Game wrote:Advanced Analytics will allow you to build Momentum and Pace if used correctly. To me Analytics are nothing more than a new tool. I watched a video where Bezos talked about the internet being similar to electricity. The infrastructure for electricity was built initially so that people could have light bulbs in their houses. Because that infrastructure was developed, it allowed appliances to be brought into homes. As you can image the first appliances were huge and inefficient. As time went on they became cheaper and better until a completely new infrastructure was built to support. The idea is that initially we got bad products but over time they became better and better until they are common place. Those first adaptors had to work through months/years of market tension but eventually it became commonplace. Analytics like the internet is the same; initially it was slow clunky and not reliable. However, as time has gone on it’s become common place. So much so, that teams are developing their own stats and their own staffs to find insight. It’s a new tool that has over time developed, and I think that some of these older players remember the clunky period and don’t see the value.

analytics is far from new..NBA teams have used analytics since kobe was drafted teams are just letting fans get privy now tho so the casual fan believes hes an expert.

a couch potatoe cant relate to playing at a competitive level but some of these stats are readily available to them.


I dont think they had the ablity to capture the game with computers as they do now. When kobe was in the league there where they mesuring play movement? Or could they reliably chart where players where taking shots? I think when Kobe was playing they were using mostly counting stats to develop insight, but today they are using advanced camaras and AI to gain insight. Am I off on this?
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#148 » by levon » Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:15 pm

ShotCreator wrote:
levon wrote:I think pre-analytics NBA thought is really interesting and is undervalued by blog boys all the time. Being dismissive and smart-alecy about the mental aspects of the game when you've never played NBA ball isn't more empirical; it's actually less responsible because you're actively dropping qualitative information that can either be quantified, be used to interpret the numbers, or both.

Kobe's approach to the game was deception. He would start off by imposing his will and getting the defense to react a certain way, and then do the opposite to throw them off. He would do this in something as small scale as a single move, or across possessions, or across games within a playoff series. He would be very informed by film and scouting reports, focusing on tendencies and less on local optima.

It seems to me the dominant school of thought now is to do the most locally optimal thing per possession. It's definitely less of a mental/emotional calculation and more of just referring to data and basically executing a simple min-max. But I think winning is largely a separate experiential skillset, based on very minute details. That's something Kobe loves talking about.

The only thing that would allow Kobe to be effective in diversifying his approach to the game would be talent and ability, which analytics has tracked pretty well for years now.


I really don’t think people understand just how good the right analytics can be at forecasting outcomes. There are guys who watch zero sports and literally farm millions through daily fantasy using algorithms similar to RAPM for forecasting box scores.

Things as violatile as PTS/TRB/AST/STL/BLK every night.

Kobe makes it sound like(or even says directly), the most important skills to have in basketball are untrackable and mental. Absolute ****.

It’s a game of substance, and talent. The ability to play it out a high level(which is always trackable) is BY FAR the most important aspect.

Quote is nothing more than arrogance and superstition.

I am a big data hound as well. You're welcome to your absolutist opinion about analytics. I personally find it more arrogant than Kobe saying that analytics don't tell the whole story. Models aren't correct; that's part of the definition of a model.

And point me out to folks that "literally farm millions using algorithms based on box scores". That sounds like bot-generated clickbait.

Also, what the hell is "talent" and how does it differ from "ability"?
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#149 » by levon » Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:24 pm

Ripp wrote:
levon wrote:I think pre-analytics NBA thought is really interesting and is undervalued by blog boys all the time. Being dismissive and smart-alecy about the mental aspects of the game when you've never played NBA ball isn't more empirical; it's actually less responsible because you're actively dropping qualitative information that can either be quantified, be used to interpret the numbers, or both.

Kobe's approach to the game was deception. He would start off by imposing his will and getting the defense to react a certain way, and then do the opposite to throw them off. He would do this in something as small scale as a single move, or across possessions, or across games within a playoff series. He would be very informed by film and scouting reports, focusing on tendencies and less on local optima.

It seems to me the dominant school of thought now is to do the most locally optimal thing per possession. It's definitely less of a mental/emotional calculation and more of just referring to data and basically executing a simple min-max. But I think winning is largely a separate experiential skillset, based on very minute details. That's something Kobe loves talking about.


A "locally optimal" strategy is probably near-optimal for basketball, since temporarily ignoring things like fatigue, it isn't clear that following some other strategy actually improves long-term reward at the cost of short-term reward.

For certain games like chess, you definitely cannot be short-sighted otherwise you'll win the battle but lose the war.

But for basketball, you want to try to win each possession (again, temporarily ignoring fatigue).

I'm not so sure about that. Possessions affect subsequent possessions, even if the predictive power of possession P isn't differentiable from noise at possession P + 3. But there's absolutely covariance between possessions.

Here's a simple example that's easily empirical: team's that shoot 3s at a high volume from the top of the key will also increase the fast break opportunities of the opponent because long shots generate long rebounds. Then you can imagine that the fast-breaking teams may not have the legs to run in the 4th. What if you exploit that? What if you know exactly what they run in half-court sets in that scenario, and that goes into your gameplan?

Point being, there's absolutely correlation between possessions, games, etc. And interpretation of data + strategizing based on data and non-quantitative stuff is extremely valuable.
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#150 » by freethedevil » Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:33 am

johanliebert wrote:
BIG Game wrote:Advanced Analytics will allow you to build Momentum and Pace if used correctly. To me Analytics are nothing more than a new tool. I watched a video where Bezos talked about the internet being similar to electricity. The infrastructure for electricity was built initially so that people could have light bulbs in their houses. Because that infrastructure was developed, it allowed appliances to be brought into homes. As you can image the first appliances were huge and inefficient. As time went on they became cheaper and better until a completely new infrastructure was built to support. The idea is that initially we got bad products but over time they became better and better until they are common place. Those first adaptors had to work through months/years of market tension but eventually it became commonplace. Analytics like the internet is the same; initially it was slow clunky and not reliable. However, as time has gone on it’s become common place. So much so, that teams are developing their own stats and their own staffs to find insight. It’s a new tool that has over time developed, and I think that some of these older players remember the clunky period and don’t see the value.

analytics is far from new..NBA teams have used analytics since kobe was drafted teams are just letting fans get privy now tho so the casual fan believes hes an expert.

a couch potatoe cant relate to playing at a competitive level but some of these stats are readily available to them.

A shame that the couch potato who can't relate to playing at a competitive level is now more informed than you. :(

Or are you projecting?
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: 

Post#151 » by freethedevil » Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:35 am

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:
CallMeKahn wrote:
fianchetto wrote:
The goal of analytics is to make intangibles tangible. How can you say they never will?


Because it's like Science trying to prove God. The goal of analytics isn't to prove an intangible thing. It's goal is to provide data, isolate trends, and possible future performance. But it doesn't predict health, emotional states, or even fluke outliers that can affect the whole (think regression to the mean). Grayson f***ing Allen dropped 40 in a game last year. Even if it's a scrub game with neither side having anything to play for, no one predicted that.

Simply put, having the data available helps and is wickedly valuable. But if it's the end-all-be-all, why haven't the Rockets won a chip lately?


Are you serious?
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#152 » by Baski » Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:32 am

CallMeKahn wrote:
fianchetto wrote:
IgorK wrote:
Analytics point to past performance trends. They're not great at predicting true winning, and they never will be since they don't take into account intangible factors like motivation and health.


The goal of analytics is to make intangibles tangible. How can you say they never will?


Because it's like Science trying to prove God. The goal of analytics isn't to prove an intangible thing. It's goal is to provide data, isolate trends, and possible future performance. But it doesn't predict health, emotional states, or even fluke outliers that can affect the whole (think regression to the mean). Grayson f***ing Allen dropped 40 in a game last year. Even if it's a scrub game with neither side having anything to play for, no one predicted that.

Simply put, having the data available helps and is wickedly valuable. But if it's the end-all-be-all, why haven't the Rockets won a chip lately?

I keep seeing this repeated and I don't understand. Who is the nutjob that says Analytics is the be all end all? Who is that idiot that says "Screw your talent. Gimme Ricky Rubio and shooters over Lebron+Giannis+Westbrook+Simmons+Dray. Analytics all day. Our threes will crush your twos you bricklayers."
Who is that delusional sucker? He'll never ever win a title, but then again he doesn't exist. Leave him alone. Stop responding to his words that he never said because he doesn't exist.


As a side note: People need to stop repeating these abstract things like it's new information. Everybody knows that some things can't be measured. However, it's because of "context" that TS was developed. It's because of stuff like "pace and momentum" that NBA.com allows you to apply virtually any filter you want to find your stats within any period of time. Also that SportsVu stuff is recording data to an absurd degree of accuracy. Constantly saying banal crap like "numbers can't measure heart" misses the fact that analytics are getting there and makes you look dumber for saying something so obvious.
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#153 » by Gnik » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:01 am

BIG Game wrote:
johanliebert wrote:
BIG Game wrote:Advanced Analytics will allow you to build Momentum and Pace if used correctly. To me Analytics are nothing more than a new tool. I watched a video where Bezos talked about the internet being similar to electricity. The infrastructure for electricity was built initially so that people could have light bulbs in their houses. Because that infrastructure was developed, it allowed appliances to be brought into homes. As you can image the first appliances were huge and inefficient. As time went on they became cheaper and better until a completely new infrastructure was built to support. The idea is that initially we got bad products but over time they became better and better until they are common place. Those first adaptors had to work through months/years of market tension but eventually it became commonplace. Analytics like the internet is the same; initially it was slow clunky and not reliable. However, as time has gone on it’s become common place. So much so, that teams are developing their own stats and their own staffs to find insight. It’s a new tool that has over time developed, and I think that some of these older players remember the clunky period and don’t see the value.

analytics is far from new..NBA teams have used analytics since kobe was drafted teams are just letting fans get privy now tho so the casual fan believes hes an expert.

a couch potatoe cant relate to playing at a competitive level but some of these stats are readily available to them.


I dont think they had the ablity to capture the game with computers as they do now. When kobe was in the league there where they mesuring play movement? Or could they reliably chart where players where taking shots? I think when Kobe was playing they were using mostly counting stats to develop insight, but today they are using advanced camaras and AI to gain insight. Am I off on this?

You are on point and then some.
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#154 » by dhsilv2 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:13 pm

johanliebert wrote:
BIG Game wrote:Advanced Analytics will allow you to build Momentum and Pace if used correctly. To me Analytics are nothing more than a new tool. I watched a video where Bezos talked about the internet being similar to electricity. The infrastructure for electricity was built initially so that people could have light bulbs in their houses. Because that infrastructure was developed, it allowed appliances to be brought into homes. As you can image the first appliances were huge and inefficient. As time went on they became cheaper and better until a completely new infrastructure was built to support. The idea is that initially we got bad products but over time they became better and better until they are common place. Those first adaptors had to work through months/years of market tension but eventually it became commonplace. Analytics like the internet is the same; initially it was slow clunky and not reliable. However, as time has gone on it’s become common place. So much so, that teams are developing their own stats and their own staffs to find insight. It’s a new tool that has over time developed, and I think that some of these older players remember the clunky period and don’t see the value.

analytics is far from new..NBA teams have used analytics since kobe was drafted teams are just letting fans get privy now tho so the casual fan believes hes an expert.

a couch potatoe cant relate to playing at a competitive level but some of these stats are readily available to them.


Sports Vue is really when analytics became a real thing. Before that it was this old school archaic stuff like PER. Even the plus minus stuff which is the best basic stats we have is now extremely dated. Sadly we the fans don't really have access to the work that's being done with the real data, at least yet.
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#155 » by IgorK » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:37 pm

Baski wrote:
CallMeKahn wrote:
fianchetto wrote:
The goal of analytics is to make intangibles tangible. How can you say they never will?


Because it's like Science trying to prove God. The goal of analytics isn't to prove an intangible thing. It's goal is to provide data, isolate trends, and possible future performance. But it doesn't predict health, emotional states, or even fluke outliers that can affect the whole (think regression to the mean). Grayson f***ing Allen dropped 40 in a game last year. Even if it's a scrub game with neither side having anything to play for, no one predicted that.

Simply put, having the data available helps and is wickedly valuable. But if it's the end-all-be-all, why haven't the Rockets won a chip lately?

I keep seeing this repeated and I don't understand. Who is the nutjob that says Analytics is the be all end all? Who is that idiot that says "Screw your talent. Gimme Ricky Rubio and shooters over Lebron+Giannis+Westbrook+Simmons+Dray. Analytics all day. Our threes will crush your twos you bricklayers."
Who is that delusional sucker? He'll never ever win a title, but then again he doesn't exist. Leave him alone. Stop responding to his words that he never said because he doesn't exist.


As a side note: People need to stop repeating these abstract things like it's new information. Everybody knows that some things can't be measured. However, it's because of "context" that TS was developed. It's because of stuff like "pace and momentum" that NBA.com allows you to apply virtually any filter you want to find your stats within any period of time. Also that SportsVu stuff is recording data to an absurd degree of accuracy. Constantly saying banal crap like "numbers can't measure heart" misses the fact that analytics are getting there and makes you look dumber for saying something so obvious.


Did you even bother to read the entire post you quoted? You singled out ONE phrase out of a post that actually says quite clearly that analytics have its place.
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#156 » by E-Balla » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:49 pm

Buzzard wrote:
PistolPeteJR wrote:
YogurtProducer wrote:The threshold is actually 60% really or close to. The early 2000’s was lower but outside of that and Westbrook, almost everyone is approaching 60TS%.


Why is your minimum threshold here DRose? I was shocked when you pointed out he put up .55 TS% as I didn’t think he ever hit that mark. Turns out he hit it, once, and you fit the narrative to fit him in? I hope that’s not what you did, but it sure seems so. Not trying to take a shot at you, just curious to see.

You are funny. Yes I made DRose shoot a .550TS% the year he won the MVP. He did that to fit my narrative, that is how much he likes me :lol:

I consider .550 to be an average TS% in today's game. I don't think it is great, I see it as a bare minimum to be considered an efficient scorer.

Average is 56 TS%.
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#157 » by TurinTurambar » Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:55 pm

Pennebaker wrote:I don't think Kobe even properly understands what the analytics effort is about - quantifying what was previously thought of as absolutely unquantifiable i.e. scientifically exploring amorphous terms like "emotion" and "assassin". Trying to get to truth, essentially.


This is a fine enough point on its own. Unfortunately, its surrounded by this:

Pennebaker wrote:Kobe is defensive as usual and not using his brain again. Momentum, tempo and pace are all numbers.

I suspect Kobe will always argue that there are some facets that can never be explained because that's what protects him and his inefficient game and his fragile ego.

In other words, Kobe's game is built for ignorance and he looks worse and worse the closer we get to truth, so he doesn't want to go there.


If "truth" is the goal, then the armchair psychoanalysis of strangers based on 10 minute interviews can be left at home. There's absolutely zero "truth" in it.
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#158 » by Buzzard » Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:31 pm

E-Balla wrote:
Buzzard wrote:
PistolPeteJR wrote:
Why is your minimum threshold here DRose? I was shocked when you pointed out he put up .55 TS% as I didn’t think he ever hit that mark. Turns out he hit it, once, and you fit the narrative to fit him in? I hope that’s not what you did, but it sure seems so. Not trying to take a shot at you, just curious to see.

You are funny. Yes I made DRose shoot a .550TS% the year he won the MVP. He did that to fit my narrative, that is how much he likes me :lol:

I consider .550 to be an average TS% in today's game. I don't think it is great, I see it as a bare minimum to be considered an efficient scorer.

Average is 56 TS%.

Thanks for the info :D Considering I was to lazy to look it up, 55 TS% was a decent educated guess.
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#159 » by Ben-N1ce » Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:52 pm

Play any pace you want and play like crap and get no momentum. Play good at any pace and gain momentum.
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Re: Kobe on Advanced Analytics: "The Game is about Momentum and Pace" 

Post#160 » by Baski » Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:57 am

IgorK wrote:
Did you even bother to read the entire post you quoted? You singled out ONE phrase out of a post that actually says quite clearly that analytics have its place.

You can't say it has it's place and then proceed to invalidate that stance by saying "if it's the be all end all" a paragraph later. That makes no sense. If you understand the value of analytics you wouldn't ask why the Rockets don't have a title because you'd know the role it's played in the Rockets great success over the last decade or so. That looked to me like your typical fluff compliment you see before someone really tears into something he/she doesn't like. Eg. "I love Kobe and think he's a phenomenal player but he was always carried by others". My post was meant to highlight how silly it is to keep fighting that same exact strawman that people like to fight when criticizing analytics, especially when noone ever really says that.
The rest of my post is addressing the "banal crap" like "But it doesn't predict health, emotional states, or even fluke outliers that can affect the whole (think regression to the mean). Grayson f***ing Allen dropped 40 in a game last year. Even if it's a scrub game with neither side having anything to play for, no one predicted that."
Does this stuff really need to be said everytime? Is this really new information? Is it not painfully obvious enough? Analytics can't predict fluke outlier games, ok so what, is your in-built "flukeoutlierometer" going to predict Grayson Allen's next big game? Can you predict his next outlier game by watching and applying some algorithm you got from the eye test? How would you predict player A's next performance based on the fact that last week his wife gave birth to a healthy baby boy and he's been ecstatic ever since? Analytics can't do that but what can?
Hope you get my point. All that stuff doesn't add to the discussion. All it does is highlight "flaws" which will likely always be flaws. It's like saying the fact that we can't get to Saturn is a reason why the moon landing was a bad idea and waste of money.
Funniest Nicknames for NBA players I've ever heard on realgm:
1. Nicholas Kaboom
2. Lasoftus Aldridge
3. Glass
4. LeBaby
5. Zaza Pacheapshot
6. Stone Cold Steve Adams
7. Rapestaps Rapezingis :lol: :lol: :lol:
8. Yawnnis Icantshootthough

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