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40 mil/5 years in NBA salary + $ 100 million in an offshore account via Balmer Inc.

Up-And-Coming wrote:

ClipsFanSince98 wrote:

Up-And-Coming wrote:Harrell is good but am I missing something? He's never averaged more than 6 rebounds. 16.6 point and 6 rebounds last year which is solid production off the bench.

The guy played a career high 26 minutes per game. Were you expecting 10+ rpg in that time? 23/9/2 blocks PER 36 on insane efficiency.

Per 36 is a flawed stat as you know. He's a good player who will probably continue to improve, but it just sounds like you keep hyping him up for everyone else.

But to answer the question, I think 3 years $45 million is fair and I can see someone offering 4 years $60 mil.

Seems fair (maybe even an overpay). Valancianus just got 45/3 and even he’s a better defender than Harrell.

Anyone saying $20 mil a year is off their rocker. Doesn’t stretch the floor and is bad defensively. He’s a bench player.

He wont produce anywhere near the same because of who came into LA. Scrubs get paid in the nba

Buzzard wrote:

ClipsFanSince98 wrote:

Pinkyring wrote:He's dwight Powell, pretty much the same strengths and weaknesses and we just have powell a 3/30 extension, Harrell is a tad better and younger so a 3/39 sure, but any team paying 20m will regret it

I think you are underselling him a fair bit, the metrics bore that out as well. That being said, I'd LOVE to lock him up for 3/39. You also have to look at the circumstances of why we may be forced to overpay him. That being said, the Clippers have been pretty ruthless trading guys who don't take discounts in recent years, so they may just trade him when his value is peaked if they think he's gonna demand max.

I think he is underselling him to.

Powells per 36 last season:
17.7 PTS, 8.9 TRB, 1.1 BLK, 1.0 STL
Harrell per 36 last season:
22.7 PTS, 8.9 TRB, 1.8 BLK, 1.2 STL

There is no doubt in my mind Harrell has the bigger impact when he is on the floor. Powell is better suited on the bench and he is being paid that way. The team that chases and pays Harrell will be chasing him to be a starter. There is a big difference between those two types of pay days.

This is absurd using raw numbers, powell has a higher ts, offensive rating, defensive rating and ws, damn near every stat says powell is powell is better across the board, again I'm not arguing as the eye test for me gives harrell a slight edge but paying him 20 when a comparable player just got 10 is a sucker move. Harrell was solid 2017-2018 and only got a 6 mil deal without even having a po

He's great to watch but without Stretching the floor or protecting the rim hes difficult to put pieces around.

He likely gets 4/70 from somebody. But I personally wouldn't pay more than 10m per year for him

Pinkyring wrote:

Buzzard wrote:

ClipsFanSince98 wrote:
I think you are underselling him a fair bit, the metrics bore that out as well. That being said, I'd LOVE to lock him up for 3/39. You also have to look at the circumstances of why we may be forced to overpay him. That being said, the Clippers have been pretty ruthless trading guys who don't take discounts in recent years, so they may just trade him when his value is peaked if they think he's gonna demand max.

I think he is underselling him to.

Powells per 36 last season:
17.7 PTS, 8.9 TRB, 1.1 BLK, 1.0 STL
Harrell per 36 last season:
22.7 PTS, 8.9 TRB, 1.8 BLK, 1.2 STL

There is no doubt in my mind Harrell has the bigger impact when he is on the floor. Powell is better suited on the bench and he is being paid that way. The team that chases and pays Harrell will be chasing him to be a starter. There is a big difference between those two types of pay days.

This is absurd using raw numbers, powell has a higher ts, offensive rating, defensive rating and ws, damn near every stat says powell is powell is better across the board, again I'm not arguing as the eye test for me gives harrell a slight edge but paying him 20 when a comparable player just got 10 is a sucker move. Harrell was solid 2017-2018 and only got a 6 mil deal without even having a po

Dwight Powell is a really good player. I wouldn't say he was as good, but as you said it's unfair to say one is way better or anything. The main difference for me is Harrell took on a bigger role in each other of the last couple years and kept improving. In every other aspect Powell is on par or better, but when it comes to scoring he's just not close. He can't generate his own post offense like Harrell can. Harrell showed even in the playoffs he can get buckets at will, even when guarded by Draymond. He put up 20 ppg on stupid efficiency vs the Warriors, leading Draymond to say he was "dominant". With Powell I feel like a lot more of his offense is put backs/hustle and lobs than Harrell who's an elite post up scorer and PNR creator off the dribble.

As for the pay, you keep getting tunnel vision on worth instead of looking at the specific circumstances. It's more about teams being desperate to overpay for talent, weak 2020 free agency and the teams trying to sabotage good opponents than Harrell actually deserving a 20+ mill contract etc. Believe me man, I WANT you to be right. I want the Clippers to steal him for 10 mill a year.

I feel like Clips are going to move him before the deadline unless he just reaches insane levels of production. I really love the guy on the team, but I can't see the Clips paying him more than 15m a year and he seems like he has already played himself way out of that range.

Loujitsu wrote:I feel like Clips are going to move him before the deadline unless he just reaches insane levels of production. I really love the guy on the team, but I can't see the Clips paying him more than 15m a year and he seems like he has already played himself way out of that range.

His handles/shot look SO much better this summer. I think he honestly is far more likely to become an elite 3rd option in a "big 3" than be traded.

GeorgeMarcus wrote:Similar contract to Julius Randle I imagine. Whether it'd be warranted is debatable (for both players).

I thought the Randle contract is pretty team friendly, especially as it’s a 2 year commitment.

I’d expect Montrez gets something much longer term.

I like Harrell as a player, but I think he'll get highly over-paid. He'll get a 18-20 million per and will immediately get looked at as another Kenneth Faried, where his team is constantly trying to upgrade over him.

4-5/100-125m if he repeats his performance from last year, especially considering that if he repeats his performance from last year Clips have a ring. He is getting Draymond money.

He will get 4 years 72-78 mil. About what Myles Turner got even though they are two different players.

He'll be closer to $25M a year than to $20M. I can see him getting a $100M contract or even slightly more, depending on the number of teams with a need for a guy like him. He'll one of the top free agents in a weak crop next summer.

I already assume he's gone from the Clippers after the season tbh, which sucks cause he's one of the most fun guys to root for in the league.

Kampuchea wrote:

GeorgeMarcus wrote:Similar contract to Julius Randle I imagine. Whether it'd be warranted is debatable (for both players).

I thought the Randle contract is pretty team friendly, especially as it’s a 2 year commitment.

I’d expect Montrez gets something much longer term.

I actually forgot it was that short so yeah, I agree with you. On a per year basis I'm not convinced Randle is worth that much (could be wrong) but the upside is worth a 2 year gamble.

ClipsFanSince98 wrote:If he doesn't improve one lick... he's still worth 15-20 million per year at his current production/level of play. In other words, hell yes he's going to get paid. Combine this with the fact that he's worked his ass off all summer on shooting/ballhandling/passing and hasn't taken any rest... I am pretty confident he takes another leap this year. It's quite unfortunate the timing of it, but we may be forced to pay Harrell max or near max next year. I pray Rich Paul and our FO can come to a more reasonable deal like 20 mill a year tops.

I was furious when he was re-signed for just two years. I said over and over that was going to bite us in the ass later. Sure enough it looks like it will. Team would of been smarter to do anything they can to lock him up for 4 years, even if it meant paying him 8-10 a year instead of 6.

I totally agree with you that 15-20 million a year is reasonable if he doesn't improve. I'd look at Valanciunas who got 3/45 to Julius Randle who got 3/62. I think he's closer to Jonas than Julius and could maybe get a little less than if he doesn't improve.

As far as it biting the Clippers in the ass... you guys are already capped out and you have his bird rights. Balmer will pay the man simply because you won't be able to replace him otherwise and I doubt he has a problem going into the tax if the team is winning, which it should be.

ClipsFanSince98 wrote:

Up-And-Coming wrote:

ClipsFanSince98 wrote:
Explain the flaws. As his minutes rose his numbers bore out PER 36 perfectly. In fact, in Harrell's case if you look at year by year, it proves the validity of the stat.

It's an unreliable stat in that Montrezl Harrell never in his career played close to 36 mpg. You're defensive when I wasn't even overtly critical of your Clipper

I'm not defensive or upset at all. I'm saying if anything Harrell is a perfect example of why PER 36 is a useful metric. I wanted you to explain what flaws you were referring to.

PER 36 is not meant to be used to extrapolate larger minutes, that is not a statistically valid way to use it. It's meant to standardize comps for players that play around 36 minutes but not exactly the same number of minutes.

j-ragg wrote:4/60 was the first thing that came to mind. I like him a lot. But bigs are pretty abundant.

Quality bigs aren't exactly a dime a dozen.

All it takes is one team with cap space falling in love with what he brings to the table.

When guys like Portis are signing deals at $15 million per you mean to tell me that Harrell can't get at least $80 million over 4 years?

queridiculo wrote:

j-ragg wrote:4/60 was the first thing that came to mind. I like him a lot. But bigs are pretty abundant.

Quality bigs aren't exactly a dime a dozen.

All it takes is one team with cap space falling in love with what he brings to the table.

When guys like Portis are signing deals at $15 million per you mean to tell me that Harrell can't get at least $80 million over 4 years?

He will get at least what Portis got. Probably more and a big plus in his favor is he has no locker room baggage to bring along.

It'll be interesting to read this thread next offseason once Trez has blown up

Forte IV wrote:It'll be interesting to read this thread next offseason once Trez has blown up

From a analytics perspective, job #1 should be continuing to improve that free throw percentage. There are more than a few GMs that won't touch you as a starter if you cannot shoot free throws.