Phoenix hit 24 3 pointers in preseason game

[SuppaSlick]

There defense has been much better in the preseason. Just adding a real PF to the roster along with other legitimate guys at positions will improve their rebounding, which improves their defense. Monty is much more of a no nonsense type of coach and will keep players in check.

No offense, but 24 - 28 wins is absolutely laughable. You can't have paid any type of even cursory attention to what the Suns have done in the off-season other than what the "experts" told you were LOLSUNS moments to come up with that total.

Let's wait and see...

I want to see your insightful analysis on this team to justify your prediction. I have a feeling you think it's the same roster with the same huge holes as last season.

The Phoenix Suns win total predictions are 29.5. If your confident they are going to smash the predictions then put your money where your mouth is and bet that they go way over.

Vegas is usually pretty good at making the predictions, barring injury or trade of course

[ellobo]

I semi-jokingly refer to Cam Johnson as the "white Steve Novak."

Similar body types and styles, but Novak had a little better college shooting stats:
Novak:
Career:
12.4 ppg/4.2 rpg/1.0 apg
46.1 3P% (6.1 3PA per game)/93.1 FT% (2.1 FTA per game)

Senior:
17.5 ppg/5.9 rpg/1.3 apg
46.7 3P% his senior year (8.4 3PA per game)/97.4 FT% (2.5 FTA per game)

Johnson:
Career:
11.2 ppg/4.1 rpg/1.8 apg
40.5 3P% (4.7 3PA per game)/81.7 FT% (2.0 FTA per game)

Senior:
16.9 ppg/5.8 rpg/2.4 apg
45.7 3P% (5.8 3PA per game)/81.8 FT% (3.1 FTA per game)

So for Novak, that's a 5.6 higher 3P% on 129 more career attempts and 11.4 higher FT% on 13 fewer career attempts (Johnson played 9 more career games than Novak).

Then there's this:

Watch on YouTube

[In2ition]

Let's wait and see...

I want to see your insightful analysis on this team to justify your prediction. I have a feeling you think it's the same roster with the same huge holes as last season.

The Phoenix Suns win total predictions are 29.5. If your confident they are going to smash the predictions then put your money where your mouth is and bet that they go way over.

Vegas is usually pretty good at making the predictions, barring injury or trade of course

Don't you worry. I did.

[bwgood77]

I semi-jokingly refer to Cam Johnson as the "white Steve Novak."

Similar body types and styles, but Novak had a little better college shooting stats:
Novak:
Career:
12.4 ppg/4.2 rpg/1.0 apg
46.1 3P% (6.1 3PA per game)/93.1 FT% (2.1 FTA per game)

Senior:
17.5 ppg/5.9 rpg/1.3 apg
46.7 3P% his senior year (8.4 3PA per game)/97.4 FT% (2.5 FTA per game)

Johnson:
Career:
11.2 ppg/4.1 rpg/1.8 apg
40.5 3P% (4.7 3PA per game)/81.7 FT% (2.0 FTA per game)

Senior:
16.9 ppg/5.8 rpg/2.4 apg
45.7 3P% (5.8 3PA per game)/81.8 FT% (3.1 FTA per game)

So for Novak, that's a 5.6 higher 3P% on 129 more career attempts and 11.4 higher FT% on 13 fewer career attempts (Johnson played 9 more career games than Novak).

Then there's this:

Watch on YouTube

Interesting the other guy you see in that video is the other Suns rookie.

[Moochthemonkey]

Im predicting a 2 to 6 win improvement on last year.

Honestly, I do agree with much of your analysis, but that 2-6 improvement seems pretty pessimistic.

The Suns won 19 games last season.

This suggests that Ayton and Bridges (even 22 y/o Booker) won't make improvements - independent of upgrading to an accomplished point guard in Rubio from fringe NBA players and a geriatric Jamal Crawford as the main ball handlers last season.

Devin Booker and TJ Warren missed a good amount of games last season for 'basketball reason'. Deandre Ayton was shut down during the end. Kelly Oubre and Tyler Johnson - two net positive acquisitions, missed the last quarter of the season with injuries.

The Suns won 19 games last season- pretty much everything had to go wrong. For the Suns to win 21 games this year, everything would have to go wrong again. (Granted, everything went wrong in 2018 as well.)

[In2ition]

Let's wait and see...

I want to see your insightful analysis on this team to justify your prediction. I have a feeling you think it's the same roster with the same huge holes as last season.

Poor interior and exterior defense. Both will be better with a year more experience from Ayton & Bridges. The additions of Rubio and a year of Tyler Johnson & Oubre helps on the exterior. Baynes, Saric, & Kaminsky help the interior at least with defensive rebounding, where the Suns were last in the NBA last year, when they played without an actual NBA PF.

Poor penetration from the wings. Oubre and Bridges can penetrate and Booker is one of the best penetrators and finisher in the league at SG.

Lack of depth. Last year they had no depth and only 3-4 NBA contributing players. This year they have around 10-12 of those players.

Lack of players from winning cultures. Counting the trades made last year, they added 6 players that have started in the playoffs. (Oubre, Tyler Johnson, Rubio, Baynes, Saric, Kaminsky)

Ayton and Booker put up numbers but I don't see that translating to wins. It's awfully hard to have those numbers translate to wins when you don't have NBA players at PG & PF or any depth. Besides the fact that Ayton was a 20 yr old rookie. Create roster balance(both age wise and positionally) along with depth at all positions and that should help tremendously.

Decision making is poor. Rubio helps with this but doesn't negate it. Once again, this is a take from last year, which was totally true. This year is a different story. They added smart players that can shoot and pass in the off-season. In fact the team is full of them and they discarded the players that were poor decision makers and couldn't pass or shoot. Josh Jackson comes to mind on decision making. TJ Warren couldn't or wouldn't pass.

I have no confidence that Monty Williams can coach this team to significant improvement. Sure, that's ok. He seems to have learned his lessons in offense. He has experience working with Embiid, AD, LaMarcus Aldridge, KD and Adams. He's helped them all and all have a great deal of respect for him. I don't think they respected Igor last year.

Im predicting a 2 to 6 win improvement on last year.

Oh and having just checked, the over/under is 28.5 so I'm hardly out of kilter with expectations.

As i have said, we will see. But im fairly confident they don't break 30.

If they would have had Tyler Johnson and Oubre all year last year they would have pushed 30 wins. In the short 12 games they had Tyler for they went 6-6.

I'm pretty confident that the Suns will be one of if not the most improved team in the league and it may not be close.

[jehosafats]

I expect them to win at least 35-38 games this season. Because remember they won just 19 games last season. Their core of Ayton, Saric, Oubre Jr., Rubio, Baynes, Johnson, and Booker is enough to rectify the situation.

I don’t see enough defense there to make headway in a tough Western conference. They should definitely be improved but idk about anything over the ~30ish win range

Most projections I've seen put them in the low 30ish range. I'm assuming they've done enough to win something like 40 games. Substandard defense is less of a liability in a run and gun conference. They can sell out, put up a lot points, and double their win total.

[Illmatic12]

I expect them to win at least 35-38 games this season. Because remember they won just 19 games last season. Their core of Ayton, Saric, Oubre Jr., Rubio, Baynes, Johnson, and Booker is enough to rectify the situation.

I don’t see enough defense there to make headway in a tough Western conference. They should definitely be improved but idk about anything over the ~30ish win range

Most projections I've seen put them in the low 30ish range. I'm assuming they've done enough to win something like 40 games. Substandard defense is less of a liability in a run and gun conference. They can sell out, put up a lot points, and double their win total.

I don’t think so. The Kings won around 40 games last season and most of their jump was due to defensive improvement. New Orleans should be much improved as well.

Unless you have transcendent offensive talent, have to be able to guard somebody to win games

[jehosafats]

I don’t see enough defense there to make headway in a tough Western conference. They should definitely be improved but idk about anything over the ~30ish win range

Most projections I've seen put them in the low 30ish range. I'm assuming they've done enough to win something like 40 games. Substandard defense is less of a liability in a run and gun conference. They can sell out, put up a lot points, and double their win total.

I don’t think so. The Kings won around 40 games last season and most of their jump was due to defensive improvement. New Orleans should be much improved as well.

Unless you have transcendent offensive talent, have to be able to guard somebody to win games

Opponents averaged 115 points per game against the Kings last season.

Phoenix could have the offensive chops to stop the bleeding on defense. Although I will acknowledge Rubio/Booker is arguably the worst defensive backcourt in the league.

[Crives]

I am a bit more optimistic on the suns defensive potential... at the end of the day it mostly comes down to DeAndre Ayton... I’m hopeful he can make big strides this year. I think Baynes and Monty + a positive culture can really help Ayton.

-Rubio/Bridges/Tyler/Oubre will be great defenders on the perimeter.
-Baynes can provide a solid solid defensive anchor for the 2nd unit.
-Saric/Cam/Ty are not the most athletic but they are all smart team defenders.
-Book is considered a good 1-1 defender but a poor team/help defender. I think Books team defense can see significant improvements this year when he no longer surrounded by gleaguers.

[The_Hater]

The Suns were in 15th place, 14 games behind the 14th place team last season. They had a a bottom 3 offense and a bottom 3 defense. There isn’t a high ceiling here unless that ceiling is finishing 14th in the west. That’s possible.

[Crives]

The Suns were in 15th place, 14 games behind the 14th place team last season. They had a a bottom 3 offense and a bottom 3 defense. There isn’t a high ceiling here unless that ceiling is finishing 14th in the west. That’s possible.

That’s a pretty lazy analysis...

The roster is completely different from the start of last season.

[Moochthemonkey]

The Suns were in 15th place, 14 games behind the 14th place team last season. They had a a bottom 3 offense and a bottom 3 defense. There isn’t a high ceiling here unless that ceiling is finishing 14th in the west. That’s possible.

Comparatively no, there's no high ceiling. Unless the Suns catch lightning in a bottle like in '14.

+14 wins would be a great improvement in of itself though.

[Illmatic12]

Most projections I've seen put them in the low 30ish range. I'm assuming they've done enough to win something like 40 games. Substandard defense is less of a liability in a run and gun conference. They can sell out, put up a lot points, and double their win total.

I don’t think so. The Kings won around 40 games last season and most of their jump was due to defensive improvement. New Orleans should be much improved as well.

Unless you have transcendent offensive talent, have to be able to guard somebody to win games

Opponents averaged 115 points per game against the Kings last season.

Phoenix could have the offensive chops to stop the bleeding on defense. Although I will acknowledge Rubio/Booker is arguably the worst defensive backcourt in the league.

Adjusted for pace, Sac was 19th in defensive efficiency. Phoenix was 29th (and there was a meaningful separation between #29 and #28)

I don't see how they make the jump you're suggesting unless they take a huge step up in defense. And none of their additions this summer would qualify as elite defensive personnel.. they added mostly offensive guys/shooters.

[homecourtloss]

Shows you the strength of the NBA. This team is predicted (along with Memphis) to finish at the bottom of the Western conference and yet this team has muchmore talent than most middling .500 teams did in the ‘80s and ‘90s.

[The_Hater]

The Suns were in 15th place, 14 games behind the 14th place team last season. They had a a bottom 3 offense and a bottom 3 defense. There isn’t a high ceiling here unless that ceiling is finishing 14th in the west. That’s possible.

That’s a pretty lazy analysis...

The roster is completely different from the start of last season.

Wel let’s compare it to the one that finished last season poorly instead. Booker, Ayton, Bridges. Oubre. Johnson. The key pieces look pretty much the same and I personally don’t think that adding role players around the edges moves the needle significantly for any team. Rubio improves PG on paper but his poor shooting might be a bad fit playing beside Booker. Saric Is ok but doesn’t move the needle. Baynes is a 15 mpg back up. Kaminsky just isn’t good. Cam Johnson isn’t going to help as a rookie. I like Jerome, but again he isn’t going to help much in the current season.

Call it lazy if you like but i think it’s more realistic then predicting something big to happen because they added a bunch of role players. They should win more than 19 games but they’re won’t finish above 14th in the west.

[Crives]

The Suns were in 15th place, 14 games behind the 14th place team last season. They had a a bottom 3 offense and a bottom 3 defense. There isn’t a high ceiling here unless that ceiling is finishing 14th in the west. That’s possible.

That’s a pretty lazy analysis...

The roster is completely different from the start of last season.

Wel let’s compare it to the one that finished last season poorly instead. Booker, Ayton, Bridges. Oubre. Johnson. The key pieces look pretty much the same and I personally don’t think that adding role players around the edges moves the needle significantly for any team. Rubio improves PG on paper but his poor shooting might be a bad fit playing beside Booker. Saric Is ok but doesn’t move the needle. Baynes is a 15 mpg back up. Kaminsky just isn’t good. Cam Johnson isn’t going to help as a rookie. I like Jerome, but again he isn’t going to help much in the current season.

Call it lazy if you like but i think it’s more realistic then predicting something big to happen because they added a bunch of role players. They should win more than 19 games but they’re won’t finish above 14th in the west.

I’m not saying your conclusion is wrong.... more that saying because the team was bad last year they have no ceiling this year is pretty lazy.

Booker, Ayton, Oubre, Johnson, Bridges didn’t play many games together last year as Oubre/Johnson were acquired mid season and then went down with injuries.... when they were together they looked pretty good... a bunch of big wins against teams like Milwaukee/GSW/Lakers (right after “playoff mode”).... not to mention the injuries Book dealt with.

I think the Suns would have won ~25 last year if they started the season with The roster they finished last season with.

This year I think they fall within the 28-38 range...

[The_Hater]

That’s a pretty lazy analysis...

The roster is completely different from the start of last season.

Wel let’s compare it to the one that finished last season poorly instead. Booker, Ayton, Bridges. Oubre. Johnson. The key pieces look pretty much the same and I personally don’t think that adding role players around the edges moves the needle significantly for any team. Rubio improves PG on paper but his poor shooting might be a bad fit playing beside Booker. Saric Is ok but doesn’t move the needle. Baynes is a 15 mpg back up. Kaminsky just isn’t good. Cam Johnson isn’t going to help as a rookie. I like Jerome, but again he isn’t going to help much in the current season.

Call it lazy if you like but i think it’s more realistic then predicting something big to happen because they added a bunch of role players. They should win more than 19 games but they’re won’t finish above 14th in the west.

I’m not saying your conclusion is wrong.... more that saying because the team was bad last year they have no ceiling this year is pretty lazy.

Booker, Ayton, Oubre, Johnson, Bridges didn’t play many games together last year as Oubre/Johnson were acquired mid season and then went down with injuries.... when they were together they looked pretty good... a bunch of big wins against teams like Milwaukee/GSW/Lakers (right after “playoff mode”).... not to mention the injuries Book dealt with.

I think the Suns would have won ~25 last year if they started the season with The roster they finished last season with.

This year I think they fall within the 28-38 range...

That’s fair, I defintiley think they’re better, I just don’t think they’ve improved as significantly as you seem to indicate. Playing in the west isn’t going to help them either because somebody still has to lose games and their just aren’t many bad teams. Things would look a lot better if they were playing in the east.

I just don’t see 32-38 wins as realistic. 30 wins would be a massive improvement on its own.

[Buckeye-NBAFan]

Cameron Johnson is going to be one of the best shooters in this league.

Cameron Johnson is older than Devin Booker. He should look good for a rookie, there isn't a ton of upside there.

[Crives]

Wel let’s compare it to the one that finished last season poorly instead. Booker, Ayton, Bridges. Oubre. Johnson. The key pieces look pretty much the same and I personally don’t think that adding role players around the edges moves the needle significantly for any team. Rubio improves PG on paper but his poor shooting might be a bad fit playing beside Booker. Saric Is ok but doesn’t move the needle. Baynes is a 15 mpg back up. Kaminsky just isn’t good. Cam Johnson isn’t going to help as a rookie. I like Jerome, but again he isn’t going to help much in the current season.

Call it lazy if you like but i think it’s more realistic then predicting something big to happen because they added a bunch of role players. They should win more than 19 games but they’re won’t finish above 14th in the west.

I’m not saying your conclusion is wrong.... more that saying because the team was bad last year they have no ceiling this year is pretty lazy.

Booker, Ayton, Oubre, Johnson, Bridges didn’t play many games together last year as Oubre/Johnson were acquired mid season and then went down with injuries.... when they were together they looked pretty good... a bunch of big wins against teams like Milwaukee/GSW/Lakers (right after “playoff mode”).... not to mention the injuries Book dealt with.

I think the Suns would have won ~25 last year if they started the season with The roster they finished last season with.

This year I think they fall within the 28-38 range...

That’s fair, I defintiley think they’re better, I just don’t think they’ve improved as significantly as you seem to indicate. Playing in the west isn’t going to help them either because somebody still has to lose games and their just aren’t many bad teams. Things would look a lot better if they were playing in the east.

I just don’t see 32-38 wins as realistic. 30 wins would be a massive improvement on its own.

If nobody improves I think 30 alone will be tough... but I think the suns have a ton of guys with upside for this season that could break out which extends the ceiling...

For example
-If Book improves again he’s going to be putting up Harden level numbers... only 22
-If Ayton figures out how to play defense and is able to add another 4-5 shots at ~ 5% below last seasons TS% he could be a top 7 center next year.
- Oubre could take a big leap.. great per 36 numbers post all star break.
- Saric could return to Philly form.. or get even better
-Bridges could break out as a all nba defender with improved offensive game.
- Rubio could return to Minnesota form in a different system... great World Cup.
- one or two of Cam/Jerome could have an impact.. both are seasoned college players that have had an impressive summer league run.
- Frank K could have a break out year... had some really good shooting numbers at the end of last year and just had an extremely impressive game against Portland.

Monty/JJ/Sarver could actually change the culture.
If just 2-3 of these happen a 35 win season feels possible.