Annual Embiid Impact Thread

Moderators: Domejandro, bwgood77, zimpy27, BombsquadSammy, GeorgeMarcus, PockyCandy, Prez, Yuri Vaultin, ken6199, Dirk

freethedevil
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,086
And1: 2,099
Joined: Dec 09, 2018
         

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#61 » by freethedevil » Sat Nov 9, 2019 12:12 pm

homecourtloss wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:I promised I would, and I'm a man of my word. In honor of Embiid's return from suspension...


15-16 (pre-Embiid)
Sixers: 10-72 (12.20%)

16-17 (minute restricted Embiid)
Sixers w/ Embiid: 13-18 (41.94%)
Sixers w/o Embiid: 15-36 (29.41%)
Net Winning%: +12.53
On/Off: +11.1

17-18
Sixers w/ Embiid: 41-22 (65.08%)
Sixers w/o Embiid: 11-8 (57.89%)
Net Winning%: +7.19
On/Off: +12.7
Playoff On/Off: +6.3

18-19
Sixers w/ Embiid: 43-21 (67.19%)
Sixers w/o Embiid: 8-10 (44.44%)
Net Winning%: +22.75
On/Off: +10.0
Playoff On/Off: +41.3

19-20
Sixers w/ Embiid: 3-0 (100.00%)
Sixers w/o Embiid: 2-1 (66.67%)
Net Winning%: +33.33
On/Off: +16.1

Total
Sixers w/ Embiid: 100-61 (62.11%)
Sixers w/o Embiid: 36-55 (39.56%)
Net Winning%: +22.55
On/Off: +11.3


I'll add that in every dataset, SOS with Embiid was greater than it was without him. That makes the results even more impressive. All hail the best/most impactful C in the league :king:


He’s literally one of the most impactful players in NBA history at any position. How many players whom we have data for can boast this much impact in their first four+ years?

A fanstastic case study of why raw +/- isn't useful
VanWest82
General Manager
Posts: 7,735
And1: 8,282
Joined: Dec 05, 2008

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#62 » by VanWest82 » Sat Nov 9, 2019 1:47 pm

Can’t call him the best center in the league if he gets thoroughly outplayed h2h by the other guy with a claim for best center in the league.
syrus3
Junior
Posts: 338
And1: 248
Joined: May 19, 2013

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#63 » by syrus3 » Sat Nov 9, 2019 2:05 pm

GeorgeMarcus wrote:
syrus3 wrote:Jokic gets his first win against Embiid and outplays him once again, 26 to 19.


I'll give Jokic this one but it was the only time he outplayed Embiid of the 3 H2H games. We'll see how the big Serb holds up when they play in Philly :wink:


Jokic owns him!

The individual numbers in their four head-to-head matchups paint a similar picture:

Joel Embiid:19.3 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.5 blocks, 1.0 steals, 5.3 turnovers, 50.6 true shooting percentage, 12.1 game score

Nikola Jokic: 23.0 points, 8.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.8 blocks, 1.5 steals, 2.3 turnovers, 56.4 true shooting percentage, 19.6 game score
mdenny
Sophomore
Posts: 214
And1: 183
Joined: Jul 05, 2019
         

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#64 » by mdenny » Sat Nov 9, 2019 2:20 pm

syrus3 wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:
syrus3 wrote:Jokic gets his first win against Embiid and outplays him once again, 26 to 19.


I'll give Jokic this one but it was the only time he outplayed Embiid of the 3 H2H games. We'll see how the big Serb holds up when they play in Philly :wink:


Jokic owns him!

The individual numbers in their four head-to-head matchups paint a similar picture:

Joel Embiid:19.3 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.5 blocks, 1.0 steals, 5.3 turnovers, 50.6 true shooting percentage, 12.1 game score

Nikola Jokic: 23.0 points, 8.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.8 blocks, 1.5 steals, 2.3 turnovers, 56.4 true shooting percentage, 19.6 game score





I love Jokic...but what these stats don't tell us? How many bad shots were taken because Joel was standing under Philly's bucket?
User avatar
GeorgeMarcus
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,817
And1: 14,262
Joined: Jun 17, 2006
   

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#65 » by GeorgeMarcus » Sat Nov 9, 2019 6:30 pm

freethedevil wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:He’s literally one of the most impactful players in NBA history at any position. How many players whom we have data for can boast this much impact in their first four+ years?

A fanstastic case study of why raw +/- isn't useful


Interesting you feel that way as I didn't actually cite raw +/- :)
"In my hood, bullies get bullied." - Zach Randolph

The Legend of George Marcus
User avatar
GeorgeMarcus
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,817
And1: 14,262
Joined: Jun 17, 2006
   

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#66 » by GeorgeMarcus » Sat Nov 9, 2019 6:31 pm

syrus3 wrote:
GeorgeMarcus wrote:
syrus3 wrote:Jokic gets his first win against Embiid and outplays him once again, 26 to 19.


I'll give Jokic this one but it was the only time he outplayed Embiid of the 3 H2H games. We'll see how the big Serb holds up when they play in Philly :wink:


Jokic owns him!

The individual numbers in their four head-to-head matchups paint a similar picture:

Joel Embiid:19.3 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.5 blocks, 1.0 steals, 5.3 turnovers, 50.6 true shooting percentage, 12.1 game score

Nikola Jokic: 23.0 points, 8.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.8 blocks, 1.5 steals, 2.3 turnovers, 56.4 true shooting percentage, 19.6 game score


Not at all. Embiid dominated Jokic in shared minutes on the court in both other games. There's a lot more to basketball than looking at the box numbers.
"In my hood, bullies get bullied." - Zach Randolph

The Legend of George Marcus
mudsak
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,763
And1: 1,416
Joined: Aug 12, 2016
 

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#67 » by mudsak » Sat Nov 9, 2019 7:30 pm

WestGOAT wrote:
mudsak wrote:
NoDopeOnSundays wrote:

They are a very poor fit together, because of his lack of jumpshot the Sixers invert their offense a lot of the time with Horford and Embiid being the ones spotting up outside the 3 point line while Simmons tries to post up. Embiid & Simmons generally speaking don't really play off one another either, they exist on the court together but because of Brown's offense and Simmons limitations they don't run any PnR between Simmons and Embiid. Almost all of Embiid's offense is either a post up or a spot up, he gets very little from being the rollman, it's really a waste of potentially easy buckets.


I've noticed in the little bit that I've watched them that there didn't really seem to be much of a "system" in terms of offense. Strange that they wouldn't utilize the p/r. I would have to imagine that combo could destroy other teams. Both of those guys can finish at the rim.

I've thought Simmons would be an issue for Philly. He's an amazing player, but being a PG and unable to shoot is REALLY tough on any team in the NBA today. Even more so for this Philly roster who's obviously going to garner the majority of points in the paint. Looking at Simmons' shot stats for the season you can see he's hardly shot anything beyond 8ft form the basket. Paint is clogged on this team.

It would be interesting to see what kind of impact CP3 would have on this Philly team. I know they'd never make that move, but win-now-mode?... it could potentially be the difference maker for them in the playoffs.


They don't have a system cause Simmons can't shoot :lol:. Opposing teams can safely switch their p/r with no worries. Even Rondo coould hit a jumper if left wide-open.


Simmons is an elite finisher though... he's highly effective in the paint... so that has to be respected. Could easily milk a ton of points off of that alone. The Jazz do this a lot with Joe Ingles/Gobert, and neither Gobert/Ingles are as talented offensively as Simmons/Embiid. Ingles pushes the defenders to the rim while Gobert rolls... defense has to make a decision. Ingles/Favors was even better at this because Favs has better hands. Simmons/Embiid could be deadly with that.
User avatar
NoDopeOnSundays
Analyst
Posts: 3,534
And1: 4,875
Joined: Nov 22, 2005
         

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#68 » by NoDopeOnSundays » Sat Nov 9, 2019 7:45 pm

mudsak wrote:
WestGOAT wrote:
mudsak wrote:
I've noticed in the little bit that I've watched them that there didn't really seem to be much of a "system" in terms of offense. Strange that they wouldn't utilize the p/r. I would have to imagine that combo could destroy other teams. Both of those guys can finish at the rim.

I've thought Simmons would be an issue for Philly. He's an amazing player, but being a PG and unable to shoot is REALLY tough on any team in the NBA today. Even more so for this Philly roster who's obviously going to garner the majority of points in the paint. Looking at Simmons' shot stats for the season you can see he's hardly shot anything beyond 8ft form the basket. Paint is clogged on this team.

It would be interesting to see what kind of impact CP3 would have on this Philly team. I know they'd never make that move, but win-now-mode?... it could potentially be the difference maker for them in the playoffs.


They don't have a system cause Simmons can't shoot :lol:. Opposing teams can safely switch their p/r with no worries. Even Rondo coould hit a jumper if left wide-open.


Simmons is an elite finisher though... he's highly effective in the paint... so that has to be respected. Could easily milk a ton of points off of that alone. The Jazz do this a lot with Joe Ingles/Gobert, and neither Gobert/Ingles are as talented offensively as Simmons/Embiid. Ingles pushes the defenders to the rim while Gobert rolls... defense has to make a decision. Ingles/Favors was even better at this because Favs has better hands. Simmons/Embiid could be deadly with that.


Ingles can shoot, any decent team will just have the center drop and the on ball defender go under the screen on a Simmons pick. Simmons won't even attempt free throw line jumpers and is afraid of contact because he's a poor foul shooter, so it's insanely difficult to run a PnR with him. Even if he were paired with someone like KAT that would only work if KAT only ever pops out and doesn't rim roll.

In the halfcourt when he doesn't have the ball he's a screener and hangs out near the baseline one step outside the paint allowing his defender to guard the rim. He is a liability in the halfcourt vs good teams, he's a bottom team bully, he'll kill teams like my Knicks but will have little impact on offense against the top teams.
NY 567
Starter
Posts: 2,014
And1: 2,395
Joined: Dec 18, 2016

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#69 » by NY 567 » Sat Nov 9, 2019 7:52 pm

Jokic>Embiid. Embiid is still a fantastic player though
Karate Diop
Analyst
Posts: 3,013
And1: 3,421
Joined: May 19, 2017
 

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#70 » by Karate Diop » Sat Nov 9, 2019 7:57 pm

Anyone know if Embiid is okay? Dude always disappears when someone gives it to him... If bruh is gonna bark then bark against all opponents not just the weakass Drummond's of the world.
mike76
Junior
Posts: 326
And1: 301
Joined: Jan 21, 2018
         

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#71 » by mike76 » Sat Nov 9, 2019 8:18 pm

Embiid stats with Ben in 19-20: 64.1% TS%, 33.1% USG%, 1.26 PPP, 18.2% AST%, 10% TOV%
Embiid's stats without Ben in 19-20: 53% TS%, 40% USG%, 0.97 PPP, 22.5% AST%, 16.5% TOV%
mike76
Junior
Posts: 326
And1: 301
Joined: Jan 21, 2018
         

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#72 » by mike76 » Sat Nov 9, 2019 8:25 pm

Jojo with Ben in 18-19 (RS + PO): 59% TS%, 33.4% USG%, 1.12 PPP, 16.7% AST%, 13.4% TOV%
Jojo without Ben in 18-19 (RS + PO): 57.5% TS%, 37.1% USG%, 1.12 PPP, 22.7% AST%, 10.6% TOV%
mike76
Junior
Posts: 326
And1: 301
Joined: Jan 21, 2018
         

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#73 » by mike76 » Sat Nov 9, 2019 8:29 pm

Jojo with Ben in 17-18: 58.2% TS%, 32.8% USG%, 1.11 PPP, 17.5% AST%, 12.0% TOV%
Jojo without Ben in 17-18: 53% TS%, 38.4% USG%, 1.00 PPP, 18.5% AST%, 14.8% TOV%
mike76
Junior
Posts: 326
And1: 301
Joined: Jan 21, 2018
         

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#74 » by mike76 » Sat Nov 9, 2019 8:34 pm

Jojo with Ben for entire career: 58% TS%, 33.1% USG%, 1.12 PPP, 17.1% AST%, 12.3% TOV%
Jojo without Ben for entire career: 55% TS%, 37.9% USG%, 1.06 PPP, 20.9% AST%, 12.7% TOV%
mike76
Junior
Posts: 326
And1: 301
Joined: Jan 21, 2018
         

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#75 » by mike76 » Sat Nov 9, 2019 8:41 pm

Never in the history of lies, has there been a more propagated lie that Ben hurts Embiid's offensive game.

If anything on 2 and quarter worth of season data (both regular season and postseason), Ben has made Embiid more efficient, less tunnel-vision-ish, and less turnover prone.

And this is only looking at offense and ignoring defensive data (which of course Ben + Jojo is so much better on defense than Jojo - Ben …. because you know an elite defender + great defender is better than one elite defender).

People who want to see Jojo and Ben split up are people who actively want to see the Sixers worse. Because that is the only possible explanation for wanting Ben and Jojo split up and traded. There is no other logical counterargument. Because there is 800+ days worth of data supporting the contrary.
mike76
Junior
Posts: 326
And1: 301
Joined: Jan 21, 2018
         

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#76 » by mike76 » Sat Nov 9, 2019 8:56 pm

But that's not all folks:

Ben + Jojo OffRtg 19-20: 104
Jojo - Ben OffRtg 19-20: 99.4

Ben + Jojo OffRtg 18-19: 112.8
Jojo - Ben OffRtg 18-19: 110.5

Ben + Jojo OffRtg 17-18: 113.3
Jojo - Ben OffRtg 17-18: 102.6

"The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - George Orwell

Edit: Also keep in mind that despite being able to stagger Ben and Butler last year so that there was always at least one quality point guard on the floor (which would lessen the offensive dropoff when one of Ben or Butler left), Jojo + Ben still outperformed Jojo - Ben). It is absolutely insane what people on this board choose to believe despite all the evidence pointing in one direction.
Roddy B for 3
Starter
Posts: 2,371
And1: 515
Joined: Jan 13, 2012
       

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#77 » by Roddy B for 3 » Sat Nov 9, 2019 9:35 pm

I was box score wat hung that game live and Philly couldn't but a bucket to finish the game out while the Nuggets went on a crazy comeback win. Embiid was on the floor.

Your 7'+ you got to get your team a bucket to close out the game if you want to be the best 5 in the league
7/1/2019
(I broke a mirror on 7-1-2012)
In SVG We Trust
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,692
And1: 1,155
Joined: Mar 14, 2016
   

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#78 » by In SVG We Trust » Sat Nov 9, 2019 9:37 pm

bulliedog8 wrote:Modern day Shaq but with a better shot. Both on and off the court.

17ppg against Raptors in the Playoffs. Modern day Alonzo Mourning maybe.
User avatar
Sgt Major
Rookie
Posts: 1,061
And1: 1,784
Joined: Nov 09, 2018
 

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#79 » by Sgt Major » Sat Nov 9, 2019 9:43 pm

He's good, no doubt, nothing wrong about being the 2nd best C on the planet.
Det. Frank Pembleton: You know, sometimes you're funny. Then there's now.
KqWIN
RealGM
Posts: 13,487
And1: 4,727
Joined: May 15, 2014
 

Re: Annual Embiid Impact Thread 

Post#80 » by KqWIN » Sat Nov 9, 2019 10:02 pm

I don’t find the raw on/off that compelling and absolute as far as evidence that Simmons+Embiid is not a bad fit. As always, you have to consider the context of when the minutes came and who else was on the court.

Embiid w/o Simmons minutes typically come in that middle stint at the end of the first and beginning of the second. This is primarily a bench rotation which is very different to the other two stints which is primarily a starters vs starters situation at the beginning and ending of halves.

Furthermore, who is replacing Ben Simmons? In 18/19 and 17/18 that was primarily TJ McConnell and a little Fultz. Not only are these guys significantly worse players than Ben Simmons, but they both share the same weakness that people believe is the source of a bad fit between Ben and Embiid.

I can’t say the duo is not a problem because the offense is better than a situation that I also believe is a problem. Being better than McConnell is not what I would consider to be conclusive evidence.

Lastly, something can work and still not be ideal. Ben+Embiid can be good in spite of their fit and not because of their fit because they are both talented players. For years I’ve been saying that Favors+Gobert was not a good fit. I think everybody can accept that now, but if check out the lineup data that duo was always positive. Doesn’t mean they were a good fit.

Return to The General Board