BigLurch92 wrote:The bundislega in Germany seems to be working fine. Why cant american sports take a page out of that book?
Because the epidemiological situation in Germany is nothing like the one in the US.
Definitely true, on the whole. For example, in my opinion, there is no way you could try to have a team operating in Chicago or New York City at this time. It's not safe (IMO).
However, the good news is that the two counties that seem to be in play here (Orange County, Florida where Orlando is and Clark County, Nevada where Vegas is) actually seem to compare favorably with Germany (which has done well in handling the virus) in regards to the virus. That is, they seem to be doing a lot better than places like Chicago or New York City as regards the virus, at least at this moment.
References for the data at the end of this post. The quick summary of the totals is this, before I convert them to "per thousand" and "per million". The Germany data is already converted to that on the Worldmeter site.
ORANGE COUNTY, FLORIDA
Population = 1,393,452
Cases = 1,744
Deaths = 38
CLARK COUNTY, NEVADA
Population = 2,266,715
Cases = 5,815
Deaths = 322
So now let's take this information and standardize it (per thousand, per million) and compare it with Germany. Because there is some controversy over Florida's counting of deaths, I'm going to double the figure for "deaths per million" for Orange County just to try to adjust for that. I'm going to list the three entities in order of Cases Per Thousand, with the lowest number going first. I'll also include New Jersey (hit hard by the virus) at the end just to give a comparison. Anyone is free to check my math here but I think I am at least in the ballpark with my calculations, if not exactly correct.
ORANGE COUNTRY, FLORIDA
Cases per thousand = 1.25
Deaths per million (doubled) = 54 (was 27)
Cases per thousand = 2.15
Deaths per million = 100
CLARK COUNTY, NEVADA
Cases per thousand = 2.57
Deaths per million = 142
Cases per thousand = 17.4
Deaths per million = 1,248
This is the kind of thing that I would imagine the NBA and its health consultants are looking at, among other factors, when choosing if they can resume the season, and where they can resume the season if they choose to do so. This type of data would seem key to determine the viability of the concept, in general, and the viability of a particular location.REFERENCES
1. Clark County, NV Covid data page [Vegas]http://www.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/covid-19-dashboard/
2. Florida Covid data page (click on Orange County [Orlando] for info)https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
3. Germany virus info (WorldMeter)https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
4. New Jersy virus info (Worldmeter)https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
4. Population of Orange County, FL [Orlando]https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/orangecountyflorida
5. Population of Clark County, NV [Vegas]https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/clarkcountynevada