Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season?

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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#41 » by Apz » Sat Aug 1, 2020 5:39 pm

I for one blame the coaching for many of those late losses. I kinda love R.C, but there have been so many times this season in clutch time that he made decisions that made me scratch my head.

And ye, Luka looked gassed last night, but that kinda what u get when u dont treat the scrimmage games as real games. Everyone that done sports knows that no training really prepares u for a full game on court and that kinda stamina u only get by playing games. Doesnt help when he last night were pretty much the only one allowed to handle the ball. We really miss JJB and Brunson. Hopefully last nights performance make RC trust Burke to have more responisbility.

So I'm not surprised at all that Luka looked gassed, and his game revolves alot about getting in rhytm, which might take a few games to get into to after this long break.

Still find it kinda funny that the Knicks dumps put up 94 points last night without even C.Lee who I really like even playing.

To summarize, I'm not really worried. The roster is a bit thin with all those guys gone atm. Courtney Lee been very important for Mavs this season with his leadership and veteran presence, lacking both him and JJB hurts more then people want to acknowledge.
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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#42 » by Harcore Fenton Mun » Sat Aug 1, 2020 5:39 pm

Young teams have to learn how to win, especially late in game.

They can run out to the lead early, holding on to it however...not so easy.
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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#43 » by lebron stopper » Sat Aug 1, 2020 5:42 pm

pontius wrote:Doncic is gassed by the 4th quarter.


Also, I find that him and Porzingis settle for tons of quick threes in the 4th quarter this season.
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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#44 » by homecourtloss » Sat Aug 1, 2020 8:30 pm

Classic young team, but also their play style is best suited for low pressure situations when the shots are going up without that feeling of pressure.

Their expected Pythagorean Wins are at 46 but they have only 40 wins. Their SRS is 5.76 (usually indicative of a 55+ win type team) which means they have had some massive blowout wins after they get leads, too, but when there’s resistance, they’ve fallen apart.

—Mavs are -17.9 per 100 possessions in the last 5 minutes of games that are within 5 points either way. All those shots that go down earlier in games don’t towards the end of games.

—Effective FG% for season: 54.8%
Effective FG% in the last 5 minutes of games +/- 5 point differential: 42.1%

—3p% season: 37%
3p% in the last 5 minutes of games +/- 5 point differential: 21.8%

That’s the biggest drop off for any team I believe.

It’s a good sign for the future, though. They’ve actually underachieved and with more experience, they’ll start winning more of these games.
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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#45 » by Sixerscan » Sat Aug 1, 2020 9:08 pm

There are more leads blown league wide than there were in the past due to how many more 3s teams take and how much more variability that adds. Not surprising if a young great offense/bad defense team like the Mavs would blow a lot.
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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#46 » by jpengland » Sat Aug 1, 2020 9:20 pm

Lack of veterans. Lack of defense. Doncic centric offense.

Dallas are miles ahead of their curve. Doncic has exploded and is leading an all time great offense. That's reset expectations to an unrealistic level.

This team lacks experience and is easily attacked in the crunch due to defensive frailties that are exposed more on single positions than entire games. We have nobody capable of stopping elite perimeter scorers. DFS comes closest but outside of that it's not good.

As a Dallas fan, a playoff series is beating most people's expectations. So I'm happy however this plays out.

If KP continues to find his groove, we add a perimeter stopper and a couple of vets arrive this summer, the league will need to watch out.
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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#47 » by jpengland » Sat Aug 1, 2020 9:22 pm

homecourtloss wrote:Classic young team, but also their play style is best suited for low pressure situations when the shots are going up without that feeling of pressure.

Their expected Pythagorean Wins are at 46 but they have only 40 wins. Their SRS is 5.76 (usually indicative of a 55+ win type team) which means they have had some massive blowout wins after they get leads, too, but when there’s resistance, they’ve fallen apart.

—Mavs are -17.9 per 100 possessions in the last 5 minutes of games that are within 5 points either way. All those shots that go down earlier in games don’t towarss the end of games.

—Effective FG% for season: 54.8%
Effective FG% in the last 5 minutes of games +/- 5 point differential: 42.1%

—3p% season: 37%
3p% in the last 5 minutes of games +/- 5 point differential: 21.8%

That’s the biggest drop off for any team I believe.

It’s a good sign for the future, though. They’ve actually underachieved and with more experience, they’ll start winning more of these games.


Great Post.

All the key stuff is there. This is a team playing exceptionally well and built fantastically offensively.. The weaknesses are easily addressed longer term. Wing defenders and veteran savvy.
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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#48 » by leolozon » Sat Aug 1, 2020 9:24 pm

Apz wrote:And ye, Luka looked gassed last night, but that kinda what u get when u dont treat the scrimmage games as real games. Everyone that done sports knows that no training really prepares u for a full game on court and that kinda stamina u only get by playing games.


Yeah, during the scrimmage, I didn't understand why RC didn't find a way to put the starters to finish the games considering that was the biggest problem for this team. I don't mind Luka playing 25 min during the scrimmages, but he should have been put back for the end of the 4th to get used to it. I certainly don't understand going from 26min to 37min two days later. I can't even remember if Luka played 37min in 4 quarters this season before yesterday. How could RC think that he would have the energy? That sudden jump doesn't make sense to me.
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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#49 » by Mr B » Sat Aug 1, 2020 11:12 pm

2012NadalShadow wrote:Tonight against the Rockets, the Mavs blew a 7 points lead with under a minute to go in the 4th Quarter.

Now, this has been a repeating occurrence during the season for the Mavs. They have lost numerous game due to blowing leads in the 4th quarter when they were in control of the game.

The most famous example this season has to be when the Mavs led by 30 points with 2:52 remaining in the 3rd Quarter against the Raptors and lost the game.

Why does this keep happening over and over to the Mavs?

Is Carlisle unable to figure out what is happening, are the Mavs incapable of preventing it from happening, or do they not listen to what Carlisle is telling them when they have a lead?

They’re young and inexperienced. You have to remember this is only the 2nd or 3rd season playing in the NBA for a lot of these guys on the Mavs roster. Eventually they will be on the other side of these losses. My bet is that next season they won’t lose as many close games.


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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#50 » by Mr B » Sat Aug 1, 2020 11:17 pm

wolfram wrote:They seem passive after big, comfortable leads. Their defence is bad and after they go cold on offence they're in trouble. Coach could do a better job of changing something as this is now a pattern. Don't know why they become so stagnant on offence.

That’s part of being a young inexperienced team. They get what they think is a comfortable lead and the tend to coast. That may have worked in Europe of in college but this is the NBA and pretty much every team has at least 1 superstar that will take advantage of you when your team goes into a lull, especially late in games. Harden and Westbrook and most of the Houston players have been around the league for a while. If you give them an opening they’re going to punch you right in the mouth. That’s what happen to the Mavs Friday night. They will eventually learn though and I would expect that this problem gets corrected next season.


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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#51 » by Mr B » Sat Aug 1, 2020 11:21 pm

Lalouie wrote:at this point,,,,,,they're thinking about it.

and they're young.

all the vet team have won so far, folks. i don't see this trend NOT continuing throughout the bubble

I think for this season it will absolutely continue. I would not be shocked at all if a scenario like this ends their season in the playoffs. As they gain experience though they will get better in these situations.


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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#52 » by Mr B » Sat Aug 1, 2020 11:25 pm

ocelot17 wrote:Mavs basically took their foot off the pedal in the last 3-4 minutes of the fourth quarter. They thought they had the game won.

This! Again, all part of the learning curve. They need to learn to resist the urge to milk the clock late in games when they have a lead a veteran team like the Rockets are going to take advantage of you every single time if you let up.


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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#53 » by Johnny Bball » Sat Aug 1, 2020 11:28 pm

Jcity08 wrote:
sikma42 wrote:
Jcity08 wrote:There needs to be more late game discipline as well, that foul on Harden near the end of the 4th was absolutely atrocious and left me scratching my head. You force Harden to take a tough 3 and live with the consequences.

And luckily it was a two shot foul instead of a three shot foul but then to allow a putback of a purposely missed free throw was just terrible.

Theres no disciple and a lack of urgency late in the clock.

The talent on the Mavs is not an issue, if this roster was coached by Pop for example, he wouldn't stand for those type of mistakes and lack of execution.
I doubt the team would be any better with Pop. They are well coached and made Pop his share of mistakes closing games. Carlisle is an all time great coach too.

Its a young team going through growing pains.

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I'm not knocking Rick Carlisle's coaching. But the lack of discipline late game is why teams blow leads in such a manner. Coach Pop has his flaws but he'll also bench players like Luka just to make a point.


Yeah, at some point here it is fair to knock Carlisle for this though.
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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#54 » by 2012NadalShadow » Mon Aug 3, 2020 3:57 am

Well, tonight against the Suns, the Mavs had a 13 point lead entering the 3rd Quarter and proceeded to get outscored 36-19 in that Quarter.

Another double digits lead blown in the second half by the Mavs who played well in the first half.
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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#55 » by sikma42 » Mon Aug 3, 2020 3:59 am

Is the team underachieving as a whole? I dont think many even had then definitively in the playoffs before the season. And they are a scary team to see in the first round imo
Johnny Bball wrote:
Jcity08 wrote:
sikma42 wrote:I doubt the team would be any better with Pop. They are well coached and made Pop his share of mistakes closing games. Carlisle is an all time great coach too.

Its a young team going through growing pains.

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I'm not knocking Rick Carlisle's coaching. But the lack of discipline late game is why teams blow leads in such a manner. Coach Pop has his flaws but he'll also bench players like Luka just to make a point.


Yeah, at some point here it is fair to knock Carlisle for this though.


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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#56 » by dirkforpres » Mon Aug 3, 2020 4:43 am

Rick Carlisle is the most overrated coach in the league. I can’t wait for Cuban to fire his dumb ass
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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#57 » by wolfram » Mon Aug 3, 2020 7:44 am

sikma42 wrote:Is the team underachieving as a whole? I dont think many even had then definitively in the playoffs before the season. And they are a scary team to see in the first round imo
Johnny Bball wrote:
Jcity08 wrote:
I'm not knocking Rick Carlisle's coaching. But the lack of discipline late game is why teams blow leads in such a manner. Coach Pop has his flaws but he'll also bench players like Luka just to make a point.


Yeah, at some point here it is fair to knock Carlisle for this though.


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To be real, Clippers are the worst matchup for Mavs and most likely will be a sweep. But that's reality of this team right now.
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Re: Why have the Mavs blown so many leads in the Second Half this season? 

Post#58 » by syntax » Mon Aug 3, 2020 8:33 am

Doesn't most of the blowing happen in the Mav's front office?

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