Unfair race to the 8th/9th seed

[phanman]

I seen it somewhat addressed on the forum prior to the bubble games taking place but it's a real shame that Portland has the advantage in the race by virtue of playing more games. Portland has played 73, Phoenix/Memphis 72, and San Antonio 70. Portland was able to nab that 8th seed over Memphis by winning what can be considered a bonus game (or 3 of if you count San Antonio).

Bubble results thus far: Phoenix is 7-0, Portland & SA both went 5-2, and Memphis 1-6. Since winning percentages will ultimately determine seeds:

- 8th seed Portland at 34-39 is at 46.57% > Win = 47.29% & Loss = 45.94%

- 9/10th seed Memphis & Phoenix at 33-39 are at 45.83% > Win = 46.57% & Loss = 45.2%

- 11th seed San Antonio at 32-38 is at 45.71% > Win = 46.4% & Loss = 45%

Curious to know if fans of Phoenix or San Antonio are upset with how it will all ultimately play out if all teams pull out a W. I'd be pretty angry as a Phoenix fan for example if they went 8-0 but Portland & Memphis won their final game and they were stuck outside the play-in. They technically have the tie-breaker over Portland since their division record is better but its a moot point with Portland winning a bonus game.

[mademan]

Why would these teams be upset? They spent the majority of the year being bad; they only got themselves to blame. More importantly, they came into this with their eyes wide open. Rules werent changed last minute or anything. Spurs and, more precisely, Suns, knew it was a complete long shot from the beginning and that they would need help from a team/teams ahead of them

[RyderMike]

Honestly, they should change it to a 4 team bracket if all 4 are within a half game of each other.

8v11
9v10

Winner vs Winner

Would still be the same 2 day timeline they scheduled and only one extra game

[Hornet Mania]

Honestly, they should change it to a 4 team bracket if all 4 are within a half game of each other.

8v11
9v10

Winner vs Winner

Would still be the same 2 day timeline they scheduled and only one extra game

That would be a lot of fun to watch.

[phanman]

Honestly, they should change it to a 4 team bracket if all 4 are within a half game of each other.

8v11
9v10

Winner vs Winner

Would still be the same 2 day timeline they scheduled and only one extra game

Yeah I'd agree with the mini tournament. Would be pretty exciting to see that NCAA styled theme taking place in NBA.

[HoopsterJones]

It’s no different than a team limping into the playoffs on a losing streak in a typical NBA season. Memphis played well enough in 75% of the season to qualify for the playoffs. They controlled their own destiny but lost enough games to keep 3 other teams in the hunt.

[schnakenpopanz]

the point is to have an equal chance of making the payoffs.
unfortunately the teams did not start with even games in their record.
so if you want to somehow have a fair playing field and each team round about the same number of games.
but having portland play 3 more than san antonio seems unfair to me.
1 more game than memphis or phoenix is not a big deal.

[Myth]

Couple of thoughts:

1: Yes, I can see that the number based on the percentage makes it unfair. I want to acknowledge that right off the bat.

2: It could also be considered unfair if a team had more or less games than other teams in the bubble to make up for that difference. Whether you argue that is because only the upper end teams are in the bubble, or because opponents in the bubble may have more or less reason to try hard in a game, or because the nature of the games in the bubble themselves are not quite the same as regular season games. The point being, there was no way to make the season fully fair. Though, even in the regular season things aren't always fair. Strength of schedule is always a thing, sometimes you get 2 home games and 1 away game vs a tough team while another team matches against that same tough team 4 times.

3: There was also some unfairness in the opposite direction based on these percentages as well when it comes to lottery/draft. Yes, Portland got the advantage based on that starting percentage in regards to getting to the playoffs. However, if they hypothetically **** the bed in the bubble, they wouldn't have improved their lottery odds/draft position even if they dropped below a team. Despite being in a virtual lock with multiple lottery teams coming into the bubble, Portland only had 3 draft/lottery position options: 17th (if they make the playoffs), 14th (if they miss the playoffs and Grizzlies make the playoffs), and 13th (if they and the Grizzlies missed the playoffs). Compare that to the Suns. Suns have played out of their minds to put themselves in the playoff conversation. But if they do miss the playoffs, their consolation prize will be the 10th pick even if they are in the 9th seed spot that would usually land them the 14th pick. So there is unfairness all around that I think kind of balances everything out.

[Flash Falcon X]

Just curious and haven't checked, but how is the difficulty of remaining schedule for each team in the Playoff race? I remember Portland heading to the bubble with an incredibly difficult schedule, but haven't compared to the other teams.

[Myth]

Honestly, they should change it to a 4 team bracket if all 4 are within a half game of each other.

8v11
9v10

Winner vs Winner

Would still be the same 2 day timeline they scheduled and only one extra game

I was also up for more than just the 9th seed play in option.

[phanman]

Just curious and haven't checked, but how is the difficulty of remaining schedule for each team in the Playoff race? I remember Portland heading to the bubble with an incredibly difficult schedule, but haven't compared to the other teams.

Only a single game left for each team all happening on tomorrow:
- Memphis gets Milwaukee @4pm
- Phoenix gets Dallas @4pm
- San Antonio gets Utah @630pm
- Portland gets Brooklyn @9pm

The San Antonio could be real anti-climatic if either Memphis or Phoenix win out. Portland controls their destiny against an injury ravaged Brooklyn team.

[spanishninja]

Just curious and haven't checked, but how is the difficulty of remaining schedule for each team in the Playoff race? I remember Portland heading to the bubble with an incredibly difficult schedule, but haven't compared to the other teams.

Memphix and Phoenix also had tough schedules. New Orleans was the only team the league clearly rigged the schedule for and they somehow **** it up.

[Rapcity_11]

Just curious and haven't checked, but how is the difficulty of remaining schedule for each team in the Playoff race? I remember Portland heading to the bubble with an incredibly difficult schedule, but haven't compared to the other teams.

Memphix and Phoenix also had tough schedules. New Orleans was the only team the league clearly rigged the schedule for and they somehow **** it up.

The schedule was literally based on the teams actual schedule. How the **** was it rigged?

[Rapcity_11]

Couple of thoughts:

1: Yes, I can see that the number based on the percentage makes it unfair. I want to acknowledge that right off the bat.

2: It could also be considered unfair if a team had more or less games than other teams in the bubble to make up for that difference. Whether you argue that is because only the upper end teams are in the bubble, or because opponents in the bubble may have more or less reason to try hard in a game, or because the nature of the games in the bubble themselves are not quite the same as regular season games. The point being, there was no way to make the season fully fair. Though, even in the regular season things aren't always fair. Strength of schedule is always a thing, sometimes you get 2 home games and 1 away game vs a tough team while another team matches against that same tough team 4 times.

3: There was also some unfairness in the opposite direction based on these percentages as well when it comes to lottery/draft. Yes, Portland got the advantage based on that starting percentage in regards to getting to the playoffs. However, if they hypothetically **** the bed in the bubble, they wouldn't have improved their lottery odds/draft position even if they dropped below a team. Despite being in a virtual lock with multiple lottery teams coming into the bubble, Portland only had 3 draft/lottery position options: 17th (if they make the playoffs), 14th (if they miss the playoffs and Grizzlies make the playoffs), and 13th (if they and the Grizzlies missed the playoffs). Compare that to the Suns. Suns have played out of their minds to put themselves in the playoff conversation. But if they do miss the playoffs, their consolation prize will be the 10th pick even if they are in the 9th seed spot that would usually land them the 14th pick. So there is unfairness all around that I think kind of balances everything out.

No, fairly small changes in lottery odds don't nearly balance out with the win% issue. Not even close.

[Bornstellar]

It is bs and I am mad but at the same time ultimately it is the Spurs/Pops fault. They should not be in this position the begin with. Their early season play is why we are fighting for a playoff spot so yeah it sucks but at the end of the day SA and other teams shot themselves in the foot to begin with

[Texas Chuck]

Just curious and haven't checked, but how is the difficulty of remaining schedule for each team in the Playoff race? I remember Portland heading to the bubble with an incredibly difficult schedule, but haven't compared to the other teams.

Memphix and Phoenix also had tough schedules. New Orleans was the only team the league clearly rigged the schedule for and they somehow **** it up.

The schedule was literally based on the teams actual schedule. How the **** was it rigged?

yeah that narrative sticking is insane. Lazy media started the whole the NBA is only doing this for Zion. Which okay, I think we all agree the league would have liked him in the playoffs. But then fans just started running with this schedule thing which was totally false. I'm embarrassed for anyone still spitting those lines.

[Kabookalu]

It's just a crappy situation all around. If you gave San Antonio more games just to catch up and match game totals, it'd be against teams that are either already eliminated, or playoff squads that aren't going to take the game seriously. All of a sudden the disadvantage goes against Portland who played more games where both teams actually tried.

[TheBullsDynasty]

Since all of these teams are under .500, it's - statistically speaking - an advantage to play less games...

[Klinky]

You would somehow have to schedule the games in a way that the teams competing for seeding at the bottom wouldn't play each other, which then becomes a bit of a nightmare, and could then disrupt seeding at the top. Basically the scheduling of games becomes significantly more complex, than simply picking up the next 8 games on the schedule, while skipping teams excluded from the bubble.

Yes some teams were granted fewer games to win, but you could also see that as fewer games to lose. All teams battling for the 8th seed have *losing* records, so the likelihood of them losing those 2 or 3 extra games is higher than them winning them.

Ultimately the goal was to give teams with a mathematical chance to be within 4 games of the 8th seed a chance, even if it was a small one. I think the 4 game buffer makes it pretty fair, that's your handicap for not getting equal games played.

[13th Man]

Why would these teams be upset? They spent the majority of the year being bad; they only got themselves to blame. More importantly, they came into this with their eyes wide open. Rules werent changed last minute or anything. Spurs and, more precisely, Suns, knew it was a complete long shot from the beginning and that they would need help from a team/teams ahead of them

It's still unfair though if certain teams have better opportunities to improve than others. I agree with the OP I found it weird how there can be such a huge discrepancy in the total number of games played between the teams.

How hard would it have been to not have one team play 5 more games than other wtf.