Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world?

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Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#1 » by GSP » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:12 am

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/

Their predictions and forecasts make 0 sense.

They had Houston as a heavy favorite to make the finals and beat Lakers.

I think pre season going in and even during much of the season they didnt have Lakers as a top 3 seed maybe even top 4. I dont know how the hell the ods are even working the way they are now.

From the Bucks/Rockets/Clips/Raps and i think Sixers even earlier and some Jazz love theyve been wrong wrong wrong

they also had Hilary Clinton at 90 something % to beat Trump.............
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#2 » by baldur » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:13 am

they are just good at selling their products. Other than that, one shouldn't take them seriously at all.
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#3 » by Homer38 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:14 am

Yes and this is not close

I remember that the 2017 celtics were favorite against the cavs before game 1 in the ECF by 538 I think.
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#4 » by Buckets22 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:59 am

This is what happens when you rely solely on numbers conjured out of nowhere...these folks make Charles Barkley look like a clairvoyant
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#5 » by TheSheriff » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:31 am

GSP wrote:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/

Their predictions and forecasts make 0 sense.

They had Houston as a heavy favorite to make the finals and beat Lakers.

I think pre season going in and even during much of the season they didnt have Lakers as a top 3 seed maybe even top 4. I dont know how the hell the ods are even working the way they are now.

From the Bucks/Rockets/Clips/Raps and i think Sixers even earlier and some Jazz love theyve been wrong wrong wrong

they also had Hilary Clinton at 90 something % to beat Trump.............


You can also go find all the predictions they have gotten right over the years...
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#6 » by WestGOAT » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:38 am

GSP wrote:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/


they also had Hilary Clinton at 90 something % to beat Trump.............


Not true. They were actually one of the few organizations that gave Trump the best odds to beat Hilary, they basically gave him 2-1 odds (33.33% chance).

The likes of NYT, CNN etc were the ones hopelessly wrong.
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#7 » by GSP » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:00 pm

Homer38 wrote:Yes and this is not close

I remember that the 2017 celtics were favorite against the cavs before game 1 in the ECF by 538 I think.


In 2018 they gave teams like the Raptors better odds at winning the title than Warriors lmfao
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#8 » by nikster » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:12 pm

GSP wrote:
Homer38 wrote:Yes and this is not close

I remember that the 2017 celtics were favorite against the cavs before game 1 in the ECF by 538 I think.


In 2018 they gave teams like the Raptors better odds at winning the title than Warriors lmfao

You have to take it for what it is, a statistical models. Like any there will be flaws that you have to account for. That example is easy, GSW was coasting in the regular season so don't look dominant by statistical models. Conversely Raptors played hard and used their depth to dominate the regular season, but depth and certain players dont translate to playoffs.
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#9 » by Texas Chuck » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:14 pm

I mean it helps if people understand what predictions mean. Like being a favorite is not the same thing as guaranteed victor.
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#10 » by mastermixer » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:16 pm

WestGOAT wrote:
GSP wrote:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/


they also had Hilary Clinton at 90 something % to beat Trump.............


Not true. They were actually one of the few organizations that gave Trump the best odds to beat Hilary, they basically gave him 2-1 odds (33.33% chance).

The likes of NYT, CNN etc were the ones hopelessly wrong.



You sure? At what point in 2016?

I remember them predicting Hilary to win


But piggybacking on the op, I was just thinking about this.

538 presents their predictions in a very neat and professional way, plus they don’t just present the data, they go to the extra step of interpreting the data and giving the reader a conclusion, they’re just always wrong lol
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#11 » by NyKnicks1714 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:30 pm

GSP wrote:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/

Their predictions and forecasts make 0 sense.

They had Houston as a heavy favorite to make the finals and beat Lakers.

I think pre season going in and even during much of the season they didnt have Lakers as a top 3 seed maybe even top 4. I dont know how the hell the ods are even working the way they are now.

From the Bucks/Rockets/Clips/Raps and i think Sixers even earlier and some Jazz love theyve been wrong wrong wrong

they also had Hilary Clinton at 90 something % to beat Trump.............


That's because you didn't bother to read about their model. If you don't learn about their models and the parameters that go into them, and if you equate a favorite with a guarantee, then of course they're going to seem like a bad "prediction site". As for 2016, they had Trump with roughly a 1 in 3 chance to win, which was better than anyone else. His victory didn't make their forecast bad in any way. Analogy: If a 70% ft shooter goes to the line for 1, and I predict that he'll make it, it doesn't make my prediction bad if he winds up missing.

If you actually want to learn about what goes into their RAPTOR-based forecast:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nba-predictions-work/
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#12 » by TheSheriff » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:40 pm

mastermixer wrote:
WestGOAT wrote:
GSP wrote:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/


they also had Hilary Clinton at 90 something % to beat Trump.............


Not true. They were actually one of the few organizations that gave Trump the best odds to beat Hilary, they basically gave him 2-1 odds (33.33% chance).

The likes of NYT, CNN etc were the ones hopelessly wrong.



You sure? At what point in 2016?

I remember them predicting Hilary to win


But piggybacking on the op, I was just thinking about this.

538 presents their predictions in a very neat and professional way, plus they don’t just present the data, they go to the extra step of interpreting the data and giving the reader a conclusion, they’re just always wrong lol


They are also not always wrong. For example. They were the most accurate model at predicting the 2018 midterm elections.
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#13 » by Goner » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:49 pm

Is it really any surprise that a site that makes predictions based on statistics heavily favored Houston? Also, I see a bunch of people making the statistical fallacy hand-over-fist in here. An outcome having a greater likelihood of being the case doesn't necessarily preclude the contrary.
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#14 » by Yallbecrazy » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:49 pm

They are amazing at political predictions. Very poor at sports, but they are improving
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#15 » by Hroz » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:57 pm

mastermixer wrote:
WestGOAT wrote:
GSP wrote:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/


they also had Hilary Clinton at 90 something % to beat Trump.............


Not true. They were actually one of the few organizations that gave Trump the best odds to beat Hilary, they basically gave him 2-1 odds (33.33% chance).

The likes of NYT, CNN etc were the ones hopelessly wrong.



You sure? At what point in 2016?

I remember them predicting Hilary to win


But piggybacking on the op, I was just thinking about this.

538 presents their predictions in a very neat and professional way, plus they don’t just present the data, they go to the extra step of interpreting the data and giving the reader a conclusion, they’re just always wrong lol


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

This was their election day forecast.
Trump to win @ 28.6% (which was similar to the odds the Trump team have themselves).

They'll probably admit they and everyone else is new to predicting sports models and it's a very new science.
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#16 » by TheSheriff » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:06 pm

Hroz wrote:
mastermixer wrote:
WestGOAT wrote:
Not true. They were actually one of the few organizations that gave Trump the best odds to beat Hilary, they basically gave him 2-1 odds (33.33% chance).

The likes of NYT, CNN etc were the ones hopelessly wrong.



You sure? At what point in 2016?

I remember them predicting Hilary to win


But piggybacking on the op, I was just thinking about this.

538 presents their predictions in a very neat and professional way, plus they don’t just present the data, they go to the extra step of interpreting the data and giving the reader a conclusion, they’re just always wrong lol


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

This was their election day forecast.
Trump to win @ 28.6% (which was similar to the odds the Trump team have themselves).


So they thought Trump had the same odds of winning as Doncic has of hitting a game winning three?
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#17 » by CarMalone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:12 pm

They are really good at predicting politics, in 2008 and 2012- they got 101/102 states + DC correct. They were also spot on in the 2018 midterms as well. Heck, even in 2016, they performed well.
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#18 » by loserX » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:13 pm

If you throw a six-sided die, the odds of rolling a 4 are 1-in-6, or a little under 17%. Statistically unlikely by anyone's standards.

That does not mean it is impossible to roll a 4.
It also does not mean that if you *do* roll a 4, that the odds were wrong.

Odds are not guarantees; they get beaten from time to time. If someone is going to criticize the accuracy of statistical probability models you need to at least be able to get this part down.
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#19 » by hoosierdaddy34 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:18 pm

mastermixer wrote:
WestGOAT wrote:
GSP wrote:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/


they also had Hilary Clinton at 90 something % to beat Trump.............


Not true. They were actually one of the few organizations that gave Trump the best odds to beat Hilary, they basically gave him 2-1 odds (33.33% chance).

The likes of NYT, CNN etc were the ones hopelessly wrong.



You sure? At what point in 2016?

I remember them predicting Hilary to win


But piggybacking on the op, I was just thinking about this.

538 presents their predictions in a very neat and professional way, plus they don’t just present the data, they go to the extra step of interpreting the data and giving the reader a conclusion, they’re just always wrong lol


Nate Silver nailed 99 out of 100 elections Presidential states in 2008, and 2012. He missed like 1 senate race in that time period as well. He still had Trump at 33% in 2016. And had a very strong 2018 mid-term election.

So you clearly do not know and are just making crap up.
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Re: Is 538 the worst prediction site in the world? 

Post#20 » by mastermixer » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:53 pm

hoosierdaddy34 wrote:
mastermixer wrote:
WestGOAT wrote:
Not true. They were actually one of the few organizations that gave Trump the best odds to beat Hilary, they basically gave him 2-1 odds (33.33% chance).

The likes of NYT, CNN etc were the ones hopelessly wrong.



You sure? At what point in 2016?

I remember them predicting Hilary to win


But piggybacking on the op, I was just thinking about this.

538 presents their predictions in a very neat and professional way, plus they don’t just present the data, they go to the extra step of interpreting the data and giving the reader a conclusion, they’re just always wrong lol


Nate Silver nailed 99 out of 100 elections Presidential states in 2008, and 2012. He missed like 1 senate race in that time period as well. He still had Trump at 33% in 2016. And had a very strong 2018 mid-term election.

So you clearly do not know and are just making crap up.



Fair enough, I get your point. I’m not too much into politics so don’t really pay much attention to that stuff.

Back to the sports side. I know they’re just models and not guarantees, but I can’t think of a single instance of where I saw a model/ prediction on 538 that was out of the ordinary and turned out to be true.

I feel like every time I’ve looked at there models and there was some sort of outlier (Marcus Smart has superstar potential, rockets a favorite to win the Championship), it has not turned out to be a correct prediction.


That’s all I’m saying. But no, I haven’t gone in depth to their proprietary algorithms, the point is that they’re supposed to be smarter than me and do the math for me (the stupid consumer), to show me what I’m missing.

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