Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them"

[vxmike]

18 month journey? I dont think the people/economy will stand for that

They don't have a choice. Ignoring this virus doesn't make it go away - it just makes it spread faster and do more damage, and it's already been proven out in many places that you can't have a fully functional economy, at least in the way it existed pre-pandemic, with covid cases rising out of control. People get freaked out and stop going out and spending money. As long as large swaths of the public are getting extremely sick and dying that'll be the case.

How do Sweden, Belarus and the non locked down countries look ?

Even if it was doing untold damage, societies cant afford it

You mean we can’t continue to print our way out of this crisis? /s

[GhosDini]

I've seen many fans say they don't care about ratings and the financial health of the league. And they don't care if players are making less because they make so much anyway.

But I'm wondering how fans will feel when their team suddenly has no money for free agents and starts making roster moves simply to cut costs. That doesn't sound super awesome to me.

A lot of damage was caused by that one Morey tweet. The one where he just tweeted and didn't actually follow up with some action plan to help those in trouble.

Yet it was the players that were financially affected by this error that ultimately led to no change at all for the people affected by china. People even got upset with the players for being annoyed by this.

Thats such BS. Since when is someone expe ted to have a flushed out plan of action when they speak up for the oppressed? Do players have an action plan for all of their blm slogans that alienated millions of fans?

[PaulieWal]

A lot of damage was caused by that one Morey tweet. The one where he just tweeted and didn't actually follow up with some action plan to help those in trouble.

Yet it was the players that were financially affected by this error that ultimately led to no change at all for the people affected by china. People even got upset with the players for being annoyed by this.

Oh come on. Morey tweet has nothing to do with the ratings in a free fall in North America and the virus has basically taken away 40% of the league's revenue due to no fans in the arena.

With or without the China tweet, the league would operate in the red without fans in the stands. Players were mostly annoyed because it would cost them endorsement money rather than actually the salary cap. Let's be real with that.

China accounts for 7% revenue and that's non-arena income that has very little expense to create. Arena revenue is high but expenses to operate that is also high, the net profit would be smaller than you think and the net profit from china would come close to matching it.

If the net profit from arena income was only close to whatever that 7% revenue generates from China, I somehow doubt that the owners would be so freaked out and against starting the next season without fans in the stands. The profit margins must be really high, there's a reason I pay $12 for a beer at the game and my nosebleeds cost me $100-$150 depending upon the game.

Edit: For many teams like the Warriors, arena revenue is about 70% of their total revenue and the average arena revenue during the playoffs is over $1MM per game for teams across the league.

[ItsDanger]

Ratings have nothing to do with the cap. It would only matter if the league contract was up and networks were not willing to pay as much. But so far nothing indicates networks won't pay billions for live sports rights.

There is a possibility of contract amendment to account for <70 game season, therefore the ratings may matter a lot near term.

[pavementplmokn]

I know I'm a crazy socialist and all, but the cap SHOULD be kept "artificially high," with the difference being covered by the owners.

The players deserve every cent they can get.

[tbhawksfan1]

Maybe all these real world, really important issues like Covid, three fourths of the US west burning during the summer ie climat change; social unrest due to institutional inequalities, collapsing economy, increasing global conflict resulting in trade barriers and protectionism / nationalism are going to actually change things... naaay! It ain't happening

[Duke4life831]

I know I'm a crazy socialist and all, but the cap SHOULD be kept "artificially high," with the difference being covered by the owners.

The players deserve every cent they can get.

What like the owners havent put a ton of financial risk into the league already? Ya let's make it so the owners take the entire financial hit while the players don't get hit... All parties in this will see the consequences of a financial hit.

[PaulieWal]

I know I'm a crazy socialist and all, but the cap SHOULD be kept "artificially high," with the difference being covered by the owners.

The players deserve every cent they can get.

And how long do you want the owners to do that? 1 season? 2? 3? In perpetuity?

They might do it for a season or two but after that if this continues there will be massive decline to players salaries and rightfully so but I also think we will be over corona in 1-2 years and things will recover.

[oldncreaky]

They don't have a choice. Ignoring this virus doesn't make it go away - it just makes it spread faster and do more damage, and it's already been proven out in many places that you can't have a fully functional economy, at least in the way it existed pre-pandemic, with covid cases rising out of control. People get freaked out and stop going out and spending money. As long as large swaths of the public are getting extremely sick and dying that'll be the case.

How do Sweden, Belarus and the non locked down countries look ?

Even if it was doing untold damage, societies cant afford it

just because a place isn't locked down that doesn't mean covid isn't changing habits. You can't force people to go out and spend money. And even though Sweden's economy shrunk a little less than some others who did lock down, they still had their worst quarter in half a century. Why do you think that was?

Also, I never said it was 18 months of lockdown; rather, 18 months (at least) of having this virus out there infecting people.

You are absolutely right - 18 months of having the virus infecting people is an optimistic scenario

The economic recovery will be measured in years. The economic damage is continuing, is already many times worse than the 2008 Great Recession, and will likely continue for another year. It is the biggest hole, ever, in the global economy. In financial terms, it may take a decade for the NBA to get back to 2019.

[tbhawksfan1]

Dang! I feel terrible for the owners, players, coaches investors that are going to have to do with a few million less, maybe billion for the owners. Let the ticket prices drop and bring sports back to the masses where it belongs

[tbhawksfan1]

Easy solution. Lower revenue = lower cost. Doesn't mean the end of the NBA, just the end of the money cow

[Capn'O]

I've seen many fans say they don't care about ratings and the financial health of the league. And they don't care if players are making less because they make so much anyway.

But I'm wondering how fans will feel when their team suddenly has no money for free agents and starts making roster moves simply to cut costs. That doesn't sound super awesome to me.

A lot of damage was caused by that one Morey tweet. The one where he just tweeted and didn't actually follow up with some action plan to help those in trouble.

Yet it was the players that were financially affected by this error that ultimately led to no change at all for the people affected by china. People even got upset with the players for being annoyed by this.

Perfectly said.

[amcoolio]

That's why I think teams might give away really good assets to shed money, like the Sixers, Pacers, Warriors and Rockets, to teams with capspace. It will be easier to buy picks and future picks than it ever has before.

[VanWest82]

How do Sweden, Belarus and the non locked down countries look ?

Even if it was doing untold damage, societies cant afford it

just because a place isn't locked down that doesn't mean covid isn't changing habits. You can't force people to go out and spend money. And even though Sweden's economy shrunk a little less than some others who did lock down, they still had their worst quarter in half a century. Why do you think that was?

Also, I never said it was 18 months of lockdown; rather, 18 months (at least) of having this virus out there infecting people.

You are absolutely right - 18 months of having the virus infecting people is an optimistic scenario

The economic recovery will be measured in years. The economic damage is continuing, is already many times worse than the 2008 Great Recession, and will likely continue for another year. It is the biggest hole, ever, in the global economy. In financial terms, it may take a decade for the NBA to get back to 2019.

I hate to throw around terms like global economic depression but that was my fear back in March and remains so today. I just don't think we understand yet the full extent of how the NBA is going to be impacted long-term, let alone every day life for many.

[shakes0]

this is why I don't want ATL to spend any of their money on free agents this summer unless it's something minor. The cap space they have could end being massively valuable in a couple years.

[pavementplmokn]

I know I'm a crazy socialist and all, but the cap SHOULD be kept "artificially high," with the difference being covered by the owners.

The players deserve every cent they can get.

And how long do you want the owners to do that? 1 season? 2? 3? In perpetuity?

They might do it for a season or two but after that if this continues there will be massive decline to players salaries and rightfully so but I also think we will be over corona in 1-2 years and things will recover.

They can afford to do it, yes, in perpetuity. Wanna bet that if owners have to subsidize player contracts, billionaires still continue to line up to own NBA franchises? Because it's crazy profitable, and would continue to be so, even if that margin is cut into a little bit to continue to pay the workers that create all the value in the league.

[Buckets22]

The players should get a haircut. Many football(soccer) teams lowered their salaries to cushion the impact.

[pavementplmokn]

I know I'm a crazy socialist and all, but the cap SHOULD be kept "artificially high," with the difference being covered by the owners.

The players deserve every cent they can get.

What like the owners havent put a ton of financial risk into the league already? Ya let's make it so the owners take the entire financial hit while the players don't get hit... All parties in this will see the consequences of a financial hit.

Lol owning an NBA team is not a risky investment. It's a surefire way to turn millions of dollars into billions of dollars over a decade or two. That's insane and has made a lot of megamillionaires/billionaires a lot of money. The narrative that owning an NBA team is some kind of huge risk is just not true.

That's why billionaires line up to own NBA teams...

[PaulieWal]

I know I'm a crazy socialist and all, but the cap SHOULD be kept "artificially high," with the difference being covered by the owners.

The players deserve every cent they can get.

And how long do you want the owners to do that? 1 season? 2? 3? In perpetuity?

They might do it for a season or two but after that if this continues there will be massive decline to players salaries and rightfully so but I also think we will be over corona in 1-2 years and things will recover.

They can afford to do it, yes, in perpetuity. Wanna bet that if owners have to subsidize player contracts, billionaires still continue to line up to own NBA franchises? Because it's crazy profitable, and would continue to be so, even if that margin is cut into a little bit to continue to pay the workers that create all the value in the league.

You do realize if the situation comes where the owners will have to keep the cap artificially high in perpetuity, the league won't be profitable and the values of the franchise will drop as well, so no, what you are saying is objectively not sustainable nor realistic.

[CS707]

Ratings have nothing to do with the cap. It would only matter if the league contract was up and networks were not willing to pay as much. But so far nothing indicates networks won't pay billions for live sports rights.

But there surely be a credit due for the games missed the networks could challenge the terms of the contracts should the league not be able fulfill their future obligations. And, albeit unlikely, I’m sure there is language in the contracts with regard to political messaging in terms of impact to ratings that might merit some renegotiation. I’m guessing those conversations occurred at the time but there are ways ratings could impact the revenue stream.