Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them"

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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#61 » by Duke4life831 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:41 pm

pavementplmokn wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
pavementplmokn wrote:I know I'm a crazy socialist and all, but the cap SHOULD be kept "artificially high," with the difference being covered by the owners.

The players deserve every cent they can get.

What like the owners havent put a ton of financial risk into the league already? Ya let's make it so the owners take the entire financial hit while the players don't get hit... All parties in this will see the consequences of a financial hit.


Lol owning an NBA team is not a risky investment. It's a surefire way to turn millions of dollars into billions of dollars over a decade or two. That's insane and has made a lot of megamillionaires/billionaires a lot of money. The narrative that owning an NBA team is some kind of huge risk is just not true.

That's why billionaires line up to own NBA teams...

Okay so you expect these businessmen to drop billions into a team, then have them be responsible to artificially inflate the salary cap so the players salaries dont get affected? How long should they be expected to do that? And guess what it wouldnt just be them putting money up to inflate the cap, they would be losing a ton more money in valuation for their team. Because guess what happens to the teams value for the league once revenue for the league begins to take a major hit, the valuation of the teams will begin to take a major hit. The main reason why we have seen such a sharp spike in NBA team value over the last decade, has been because the NBA saw a massive spike in revenue. Once that revenue arrow starts dropping, so does the teams value.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#62 » by pavementplmokn » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:43 pm

PaulieWal wrote:
pavementplmokn wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:
And how long do you want the owners to do that? 1 season? 2? 3? In perpetuity?

They might do it for a season or two but after that if this continues there will be massive decline to players salaries and rightfully so but I also think we will be over corona in 1-2 years and things will recover.


They can afford to do it, yes, in perpetuity. Wanna bet that if owners have to subsidize player contracts, billionaires still continue to line up to own NBA franchises? Because it's crazy profitable, and would continue to be so, even if that margin is cut into a little bit to continue to pay the workers that create all the value in the league.


You do realize if the situation comes where the owners will have to keep the cap artificially high in perpetuity, the league won't be profitable and the values of the franchise will drop as well, so no, what you are saying is objectively not sustainable nor realistic.


No I do not realize that... In fact I am arguing the exact opposite. You think the like $15 million per team that is being talked about that each owner would subsizide would drop franchise valuations and take a huge chunk out of league profits? LOL!

I don't mean to be an ass, but I think you guys kind of have no idea how much money the NBA makes and how incredibly solid of an investment these franchies have been for the mega-rich for the last few decades.

Subzidizing $15 million or so per team per year to make sure that teams can actually be built properly and players get paid what they are now at least..... that is absolutely nothing.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#63 » by bwgood77 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:44 pm

Calamity_Cometh wrote:I don't think that it is outrageous to say that we are in unprecedented territory here. Every single person reading this has had that moment of "whoa, what world am I in right now. "


Yes, your username was spot on.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#64 » by NZB2323 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:47 pm

vxmike wrote:
NZB2323 wrote:
pipfan wrote:I personally think they should just let it ride out, and let the cap drop. Do we really care that owners and players will "lose money"? This is millionaires vs. billionaires. Let the cap go down, but they should keep the lux tax where it is.

As a Bulls fan, I am just bummed (but understand) if we don't see NBA ball again until March or April.


NBA owners care if they lose money, and there’s no guarantee we get NBA ball in March or April. There’s no guarantee we get a 2021 season. Players don’t want to do a bubble and lots of owners can’t afford to pay the salaries with no revenue from ticket sales. COVID-19 spreads worse in the winter and as cases get better we loosen restrictions and then cases get worse.


If they don’t play 70 games I think there is no TV money at all. They have to play some kind of season even if they do another bubble. Could do an East bubble and a West bubble and just play inter-conference games for one regular season.


The players don’t want to play in a bubble and owners don’t want to have a season that they lose money on. There was no MLB in 1995 and there’s no guarantee we have NBA in 2021.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#65 » by pavementplmokn » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:47 pm

Duke4life831 wrote:
pavementplmokn wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:What like the owners havent put a ton of financial risk into the league already? Ya let's make it so the owners take the entire financial hit while the players don't get hit... All parties in this will see the consequences of a financial hit.


Lol owning an NBA team is not a risky investment. It's a surefire way to turn millions of dollars into billions of dollars over a decade or two. That's insane and has made a lot of megamillionaires/billionaires a lot of money. The narrative that owning an NBA team is some kind of huge risk is just not true.

That's why billionaires line up to own NBA teams...

Okay so you expect these businessmen to drop billions into a team, then have them be responsible to artificially inflate the salary cap so the players salaries dont get affected? How long should they be expected to do that? And guess what it wouldnt just be them putting money up to inflate the cap, they would be losing a ton more money in valuation for their team. Because guess what happens to the teams value for the league once revenue for the league begins to take a major hit, the valuation of the teams will begin to take a major hit. The main reason why we have seen such a sharp spike in NBA team value over the last decade, has been because the NBA saw a massive spike in revenue. Once that revenue arrow starts dropping, so does the teams value.



I'm gonna stop trying I think, cause you all won't engage with my actual argument, but no i don't think it's an artificial inflation, i think it's paying the players (STILL LESS THAN) they are worth.

And 15 million/year or so in subsidies just won't do ANYTHING to valuations or dent these billionaire's pockets at all.

Sorry you find the need to identify with people who have absolutely ungodly amounts of money and don't give a **** about you.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#66 » by ItsDanger » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:51 pm

FYI, many teams financial situations are different. Some owners strictly have the franchise for tax purposes. During these times, cash flow for some teams becomes important. Making financial generalizations when the franchises are in different markets and have different ownerships is over simplifying the situation.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#67 » by Richard4444 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:52 pm

ThunderBolt wrote:
bisme37 wrote:I've seen many fans say they don't care about ratings and the financial health of the league. And they don't care if players are making less because they make so much anyway.

But I'm wondering how fans will feel when their team suddenly has no money for free agents and starts making roster moves simply to cut costs. That doesn't sound super awesome to me.

Making moves to cut costs how? Trading to other teams that don't have cap space? Its going to impact everyone so even bad teams that beforehand might have been willing to back and bad contract won't do so. I could be wrong but it seems like it makes sense that most teams, good or bad, will simply be stuck for a while.


1) A broken team can salary dump players to cap spaced teams like Atlanta, Knicks, and Detroit giving away assets if needed.

2) A broken team can refuse to re-sign good players, wave no guaranteed deals, not picking team options, sign and trade RFA players for cheap, or not matching his offer sheets.

3) A broken team can make a trade with a capped out team receiving only 80% of the salary back.

4) A broken team can trade their pick for an upcoming worse pick in a future draft to save some money. Or trading down for cheap.

8) A broke team can trade picks for cash consideration up to 5,5M.

6) A broken team can select a euro stash under contract overseas to save money this season.

7) A broken team can opt to only sign 13 players (less than the 15 limit).

8) A broken team can refuse to pay 120% of the rookie scale (what is far from normal) or sign a 2 way deal with early second-rounders. I don't know if the select player has a say about that but I know it's not the best way to start a relationship. Maybe teams would talk to the players beforehand about that if it would be a problem, making the club select a worse player who is ok with that to avoid the headache.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#68 » by BlazersBroncos » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:56 pm

Just let it drop. I dont see the big deal. Its the realities of the pandemic. Everyone is dealing with something. It will bounce back in time.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#69 » by PaulieWal » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:57 pm

pavementplmokn wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
pavementplmokn wrote:
Lol owning an NBA team is not a risky investment. It's a surefire way to turn millions of dollars into billions of dollars over a decade or two. That's insane and has made a lot of megamillionaires/billionaires a lot of money. The narrative that owning an NBA team is some kind of huge risk is just not true.

That's why billionaires line up to own NBA teams...

Okay so you expect these businessmen to drop billions into a team, then have them be responsible to artificially inflate the salary cap so the players salaries dont get affected? How long should they be expected to do that? And guess what it wouldnt just be them putting money up to inflate the cap, they would be losing a ton more money in valuation for their team. Because guess what happens to the teams value for the league once revenue for the league begins to take a major hit, the valuation of the teams will begin to take a major hit. The main reason why we have seen such a sharp spike in NBA team value over the last decade, has been because the NBA saw a massive spike in revenue. Once that revenue arrow starts dropping, so does the teams value.



I'm gonna stop trying I think, cause you all won't engage with my actual argument, but no i don't think it's an artificial inflation, i think it's paying the players (STILL LESS THAN) they are worth.

And 15 million/year or so in subsidies just won't do ANYTHING to valuations or dent these billionaire's pockets at all.

Sorry you find the need to identify with people who have absolutely ungodly amounts of money and don't give a **** about you.


You didn't post it in response to one of my posts but I personally don't identify with billionaires but we can also acknowledge that NBA players have done fantastically done well for themselves as a workers' group. I am pretty pro-player empowerment, sorry you feel the need to lash out but no business owner is going to take a $20-$30 million haircut in perpetuity. That's just not how things work and it wouldn't even be sustainable.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#70 » by Duke4life831 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:57 pm

pavementplmokn wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
pavementplmokn wrote:
Lol owning an NBA team is not a risky investment. It's a surefire way to turn millions of dollars into billions of dollars over a decade or two. That's insane and has made a lot of megamillionaires/billionaires a lot of money. The narrative that owning an NBA team is some kind of huge risk is just not true.

That's why billionaires line up to own NBA teams...

Okay so you expect these businessmen to drop billions into a team, then have them be responsible to artificially inflate the salary cap so the players salaries dont get affected? How long should they be expected to do that? And guess what it wouldnt just be them putting money up to inflate the cap, they would be losing a ton more money in valuation for their team. Because guess what happens to the teams value for the league once revenue for the league begins to take a major hit, the valuation of the teams will begin to take a major hit. The main reason why we have seen such a sharp spike in NBA team value over the last decade, has been because the NBA saw a massive spike in revenue. Once that revenue arrow starts dropping, so does the teams value.



I'm gonna stop trying I think, cause you all won't engage with my actual argument, but no i don't think it's an artificial inflation, i think it's paying the players (STILL LESS THAN) they are worth.

And 15 million/year or so in subsidies just won't do ANYTHING to valuations or dent these billionaire's pockets at all.

Sorry you find the need to identify with people who have absolutely ungodly amounts of money and don't give a **** about you.


Again the subsidizing is not the thing that is going to hurt the owners or the valuation of the teams. Its the fact that they would need subsidies for the cap that is going to hurt the valuation of the teams. We are talking about a major major hit in TV ratings which can lead to a major hit in the next TV deal. We have no clue when we will be able to get fans back into stadiums. Then there is the whole China issue. The NBA could be seeing a major hit to its revenue over the next few seasons. That is what would do major damage to the valuation of these franchises.

Also dont get where Im "identifying" with the owners. Im talking about basic economics. Also if you think Im "identifying" with the owners, that would mean you're identifying with the multi-millionaire players that have ungodly amounts of money and dont give a **** about you. You arent taking the side of the kid making minimum wage at Walmart, youre also taking the side of the "evil" 0.1%ers.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#71 » by PaulieWal » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:03 pm

Duke4life831 wrote:Also dont get where Im "identifying" with the owners. Im talking about basic economics. Also if you think Im "identifying" with the owners, that would mean you're identifying with the multi-millionaire players that have ungodly amounts of money and dont give a **** about you. You arent taking the side of the kid making minimum wage at Walmart, youre also taking the side of the "evil" 0.1%ers.


Yep, if it comes down to the person making minimum wage at Walmart vs. Walmart's management/the Walton Family, I am 100% siding with the worker. But the NBA players have done pretty well for themselves and I think there is a healthy balance now between workers vs. business owners within that league. Now if you were to talk to me about NFL or MLB players, yeah, I'd say the owners there have a lot more to give - especially in the NFL. If the NBA's revenues have peaked and the league is going to start declining in total revenue, the players will have to eat some of that.

And you are 100% right, the players are already a part of the 0.000001% crew and don't give a flying **** about any of the fans, any more than the owners do.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#72 » by Dominater » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:11 pm

celticfan42487 wrote:While the salaries will be lower, and free agents will prefer 1 year deals because of it.

This should land to the same priority for free agents.

1) Goto a big city to make money outside of the NBA in endorsements
2) Winning team to get to the playoffs to increase one's marketability for endorsements

When that new TV revenue hits though after the contract expires if these trends continue we may actually see a contraction in the league for franchises. Or perhaps some negative ramifications for the Dleague and the financial black hole that is the WNBA.

We're living in a dangerous time for the financial health of the league.

You can say that about society as a whole
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the wave that's about to hit them" 

Post#73 » by jimmy keys » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:12 pm

VanWest82 wrote:
Tor_Raps wrote:I just hope they do a better job of lowering the cap this year and increasing it the following year once things return to normal. The downturn and spike can lead to other Durant to Gstate like situations in 2021.


One of the concerns I'm positive the NBA has is that things don't return to "normal" for them.

We haven't really seen/felt the full extent of the economic consequences from the pandemic yet. We're six months into an 18 month (or longer) journey, and that's just the safety side of it. Economies can and will hit a point of long-term economic change if recession persists. A lot of the lost commerce will never come back if that happens. Will consumers still be able to afford games when it's finally safe to do so?

We also don't know how many sports fans will still want to be part of a packed stadium now that the public is so much better informed of the manner in which viruses can spread. And further to Windy's point, no fans or way less fans = huge losses.

Then there's the current geo-political landscape with heightened tensions and NBA's battle with cord cutting and an inability to convince their customers to stop stealing their product.

We might see a scenario where there is no NBA for a while unless/until the players make some major concessions. None of these owners are going to sign up to lose tens of millions of dollars per year just to honor their existing payrolls, and no one's going to shell out billions of dollars to buy them out of a business that all of a sudden has so much uncertainty.


Good analysis. Do you think any teams are in danger of contraction? Seems kind of bleak for 1/3 of the league.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#74 » by VanWest82 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:14 pm

pavementplmokn wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
pavementplmokn wrote:I know I'm a crazy socialist and all, but the cap SHOULD be kept "artificially high," with the difference being covered by the owners.

The players deserve every cent they can get.

What like the owners havent put a ton of financial risk into the league already? Ya let's make it so the owners take the entire financial hit while the players don't get hit... All parties in this will see the consequences of a financial hit.


Lol owning an NBA team is not a risky investment. It's a surefire way to turn millions of dollars into billions of dollars over a decade or two. That's insane and has made a lot of megamillionaires/billionaires a lot of money. The narrative that owning an NBA team is some kind of huge risk is just not true.

That's why billionaires line up to own NBA teams...


It wasn't really a risk over the past decade but it sure looks like one now: an entertainment business that lives off discretionary spending, whose business model is public enemy #1 in a pandemic, operating in the middle of a recession (soon to be global depression). If you can't withstand the short-term losses over a few years you'll be bankrupt and won't be around to see those potential gains in asset value down the road.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#75 » by C3H6N6O6 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:20 pm

Cap will be lowered 4-5 million every year instead of 15+ mil in one year. It will also increase slowly once viewership increases after Covid.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#76 » by vxmike » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:20 pm

NZB2323 wrote:
vxmike wrote:
NZB2323 wrote:
NBA owners care if they lose money, and there’s no guarantee we get NBA ball in March or April. There’s no guarantee we get a 2021 season. Players don’t want to do a bubble and lots of owners can’t afford to pay the salaries with no revenue from ticket sales. COVID-19 spreads worse in the winter and as cases get better we loosen restrictions and then cases get worse.


If they don’t play 70 games I think there is no TV money at all. They have to play some kind of season even if they do another bubble. Could do an East bubble and a West bubble and just play inter-conference games for one regular season.


The players don’t want to play in a bubble and owners don’t want to have a season that they lose money on. There was no MLB in 1995 and there’s no guarantee we have NBA in 2021.


I’m sure the players would be on a plane to the bubble tomorrow if the alternative is no paycheck and a 50% cap hit moving forward. The broadcasters could possibly even cancel the TV deal under a force majure clause if there is no season....that would be devastating
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the wave that's about to hit them" 

Post#77 » by VanWest82 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:22 pm

jimmy keys wrote:Good analysis. Do you think any teams are in danger of contraction? Seems kind of bleak for 1/3 of the league.


Good question. I hope not. I wouldn't be surprised to see some owner bankruptcies or fire sales eventually (Edit: maybe a franchise relocation??). It really depends on how bleak the economy gets and for how long. My guess is NBA would try to do everything it could to prevent that.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#78 » by Richard4444 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:23 pm

NZB2323 wrote:
pipfan wrote:I personally think they should just let it ride out, and let the cap drop. Do we really care that owners and players will "lose money"? This is millionaires vs. billionaires. Let the cap go down, but they should keep the lux tax where it is.

As a Bulls fan, I am just bummed (but understand) if we don't see NBA ball again until March or April.


NBA owners care if they lose money, and there’s no guarantee we get NBA ball in March or April. There’s no guarantee we get a 2021 season. Players don’t want to do a bubble and lots of owners can’t afford to pay the salaries with no revenue from ticket sales. COVID-19 spreads worse in the winter and as cases get better we loosen restrictions and then cases get worse.


I think owners would have further losses if there is not a 2021 season. Players under contract will get paid for sure. Payroll is more than 50% of the total revenue.

If they cancel the season, it will be no revenue, only costs. O think we would not see a season only if the Player Association doesn't agree with the owners's requests, and the owners go for a lockout.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#79 » by Dominater » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:24 pm

Duke4life831 wrote:
pavementplmokn wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:Okay so you expect these businessmen to drop billions into a team, then have them be responsible to artificially inflate the salary cap so the players salaries dont get affected? How long should they be expected to do that? And guess what it wouldnt just be them putting money up to inflate the cap, they would be losing a ton more money in valuation for their team. Because guess what happens to the teams value for the league once revenue for the league begins to take a major hit, the valuation of the teams will begin to take a major hit. The main reason why we have seen such a sharp spike in NBA team value over the last decade, has been because the NBA saw a massive spike in revenue. Once that revenue arrow starts dropping, so does the teams value.



I'm gonna stop trying I think, cause you all won't engage with my actual argument, but no i don't think it's an artificial inflation, i think it's paying the players (STILL LESS THAN) they are worth.

And 15 million/year or so in subsidies just won't do ANYTHING to valuations or dent these billionaire's pockets at all.

Sorry you find the need to identify with people who have absolutely ungodly amounts of money and don't give a **** about you.


Again the subsidizing is not the thing that is going to hurt the owners or the valuation of the teams. Its the fact that they would need subsidies for the cap that is going to hurt the valuation of the teams. We are talking about a major major hit in TV ratings which can lead to a major hit in the next TV deal. We have no clue when we will be able to get fans back into stadiums. Then there is the whole China issue. The NBA could be seeing a major hit to its revenue over the next few seasons. That is what would do major damage to the valuation of these franchises.

Also dont get where Im "identifying" with the owners. Im talking about basic economics. Also if you think Im "identifying" with the owners, that would mean you're identifying with the multi-millionaire players that have ungodly amounts of money and dont give a **** about you. You arent taking the side of the kid making minimum wage at Walmart, youre also taking the side of the "evil" 0.1%ers.

Exactly. This guy is kissing the players feet, when they are in the same boat as the owners... Rich people that don't give a damn about us. This scene sums it up perfectly

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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#80 » by karkinos » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:29 pm

love how realgm posters speak with such confidence on what it means to be a billionaire and how there is like "no risk" in owning a team

atlanta hawks, buffalo bills, carolina panthers, and houston rockets were all bought and sold in the past 5 years

if it were easy money, they never would have been sold.

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