Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them"

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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#81 » by Richard4444 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:33 pm

snaquille oatmeal wrote:And so the free agent one year and done signing era begins.


Knciks are at the forefront of this tendency. They started 2 seasons ago.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the wave that's about to hit them" 

Post#82 » by jimmy keys » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:36 pm

vxmike wrote:
BoogieTime wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:
They don't have a choice. Ignoring this virus doesn't make it go away - it just makes it spread faster and do more damage, and it's already been proven out in many places that you can't have a fully functional economy, at least in the way it existed pre-pandemic, with covid cases rising out of control. People get freaked out and stop going out and spending money. As long as large swaths of the public are getting extremely sick and dying that'll be the case.


How do Sweden, Belarus and the non locked down countries look ?

Even if it was doing untold damage, societies cant afford it


You mean we can’t continue to print our way out of this crisis? /s


The average person isn't even aware of how close we are to hyperinflation or how much money has been printed in the last 6 months.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#83 » by Duke4life831 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:37 pm

karkinos wrote:love how realgm posters speak with such confidence on what it means to be a billionaire and how there is like "no risk" in owning a team

atlanta hawks, buffalo bills, carolina panthers, and houston rockets were all bought and sold in the past 5 years

if it were easy money, they never would have been sold.

Yup I mean there is always risk in investing money. For example the Nets were just purchased for 2.3 billion dollars in 2019. You think the group that made that purchase arent biting their nails right now. If news breaks that there wont be any fans next year, or even worse the TV ratings dont turn around before the next TV deal. The valuation of that franchise (all the franchises) will have taken a big hit.

Dont get me wrong, Im not saying to have sympathy for these mega rich people. But financially speaking, ya there is billions on the line and that is a major risk.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the wave that's about to hit them" 

Post#84 » by ReddoverKobe » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:37 pm

Jkam31 wrote:Ratings don’t matter though


What are racist watching these days by the way?

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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#85 » by Warriorfan » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:42 pm

snaquille oatmeal wrote:And so the free agent one year and done signing era begins.


With a lot of uncertainty I think this will be a positive outcome for everyone except the overpaid middle class player or the aging former superstar.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#86 » by jimmy keys » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:43 pm

karkinos wrote:love how realgm posters speak with such confidence on what it means to be a billionaire and how there is like "no risk" in owning a team

atlanta hawks, buffalo bills, carolina panthers, and houston rockets were all bought and sold in the past 5 years

if it were easy money, they never would have been sold.


Not to mention the franchise valuations jumped 500+% in the last decade. Imagine buying the Rockets for $2.2 billion. You think Fertitta ever recovers that investment?
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#87 » by ThunderBolt » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:44 pm

Richard4444 wrote:
ThunderBolt wrote:
bisme37 wrote:I've seen many fans say they don't care about ratings and the financial health of the league. And they don't care if players are making less because they make so much anyway.

But I'm wondering how fans will feel when their team suddenly has no money for free agents and starts making roster moves simply to cut costs. That doesn't sound super awesome to me.

Making moves to cut costs how? Trading to other teams that don't have cap space? Its going to impact everyone so even bad teams that beforehand might have been willing to back and bad contract won't do so. I could be wrong but it seems like it makes sense that most teams, good or bad, will simply be stuck for a while.


1) A broken team can salary dump players to cap spaced teams like Atlanta, Knicks, and Detroit giving away assets if needed.

2) A broken team can refuse to re-sign good players, wave no guaranteed deals, not picking team options, sign and trade RFA players for cheap, or not matching his offer sheets.

3) A broken team can make a trade with a capped out team receiving only 80% of the salary back.

4) A broken team can trade their pick for an upcoming worse pick in a future draft to save some money. Or trading down for cheap.

8) A broke team can trade picks for cash consideration up to 5,5M.

6) A broken team can select a euro stash under contract overseas to save money this season.

7) A broken team can opt to only sign 13 players (less than the 15 limit).

8) A broken team can refuse to pay 120% of the rookie scale (what is far from normal) or sign a 2 way deal with early second-rounders. I don't know if the select player has a say about that but I know it's not the best way to start a relationship. Maybe teams would talk to the players beforehand about that if it would be a problem, making the club select a worse player who is ok with that to avoid the headache.

And most of those options will be significantly more difficult than they were expected to be about 8 months ago.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#88 » by jimmy keys » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:48 pm

Duke4life831 wrote:
karkinos wrote:love how realgm posters speak with such confidence on what it means to be a billionaire and how there is like "no risk" in owning a team

atlanta hawks, buffalo bills, carolina panthers, and houston rockets were all bought and sold in the past 5 years

if it were easy money, they never would have been sold.

Yup I mean there is always risk in investing money. For example the Nets were just purchased for 2.3 billion dollars in 2019. You think the group that made that purchase arent biting their nails right now. If news breaks that there wont be any fans next year, or even worse the TV ratings dont turn around before the next TV deal. The valuation of that franchise (all the franchises) will have taken a big hit.

Dont get me wrong, Im not saying to have sympathy for these mega rich people. But financially speaking, ya there is billions on the line and that is a major risk.


What do you think Fertitta would get for if the Rockets were up for sale again in the next 36 months? Or if the Nets went up for sale?
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#89 » by ItsDanger » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:49 pm

karkinos wrote:love how realgm posters speak with such confidence on what it means to be a billionaire and how there is like "no risk" in owning a team

atlanta hawks, buffalo bills, carolina panthers, and houston rockets were all bought and sold in the past 5 years

if it were easy money, they never would have been sold.

Its because they have little knowledge of tax planning.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#90 » by donnieme » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:00 pm

I wonder if all these players opting out of their present contracts are going to regret the decision to test their value in a market they should have known was uncertain. Some agents are about to get fired
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#91 » by Duke4life831 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:06 pm

jimmy keys wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
karkinos wrote:love how realgm posters speak with such confidence on what it means to be a billionaire and how there is like "no risk" in owning a team

atlanta hawks, buffalo bills, carolina panthers, and houston rockets were all bought and sold in the past 5 years

if it were easy money, they never would have been sold.

Yup I mean there is always risk in investing money. For example the Nets were just purchased for 2.3 billion dollars in 2019. You think the group that made that purchase arent biting their nails right now. If news breaks that there wont be any fans next year, or even worse the TV ratings dont turn around before the next TV deal. The valuation of that franchise (all the franchises) will have taken a big hit.

Dont get me wrong, Im not saying to have sympathy for these mega rich people. But financially speaking, ya there is billions on the line and that is a major risk.


What do you think he'd get for them if they Rockets were for sale again in the next 36 months?

I have no clue. All of this becomes a moot point if China relations return to normal, full attendance is allowed and TV ratings bounce back and the next TV deal brings in the same kind of revenue. A lot can happen in the next 3 years.

On the flip side, what if the ratings we saw these finals are the new norm, we are talking about a 3-4x market share hit. Just for a game to game comparison, the gamee 6 of the 2013 Finals saw a 12.3 rating, the game 6 of this final saw a 4.2. So that is a significant TV rating drop. A 3-4 rating all finals is beyond horrific. Why would any TV channel or streaming service drop 2.5 billion a year for a TV deal when 2.5 billion was previously getting 3-4x the market share. So if TV ratings stay the same, I would expect a significantly lower TV deal. Between the TV deal and China, that is about 3 billion dollars a year. Those are two things in major question at the moment.

But ya if Im the Rockets ownership group that just purchased them in 2017 for 2.2 billion or the Nets ownership group that just purchased them in 2019 for 2.3 billion. Ya Id be pretty worried right now that there might be a big hit to those valuations in the next few months if China relations dont return to normal and they cant solve this TV ratings issue.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#92 » by Lalouie » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:09 pm

xdrta+ wrote:I'd say a better take would be that Windhorst has no idea what's about to happen.


no,,,but he's basing it on things as they are now
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#93 » by xdrta+ » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:17 pm

donnieme wrote:I wonder if all these players opting out of their present contracts are going to regret the decision to test their value in a market they should have known was uncertain. Some agents are about to get fired


Who are "all these players" that are opting out of their contracts? I haven't seen any. There are 28 player options available, and the vast majority will opt-in. A few minimum contracts, like Rondo will opt out, since the worst they'll do is get another min contract, and AD since he's guaranteed a bigger contract, but almost all the rest will take the safe money.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#94 » by xdrta+ » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:22 pm

Lalouie wrote:
xdrta+ wrote:I'd say a better take would be that Windhorst has no idea what's about to happen.


no,,,but he's basing it on things as they are now


The best guess from most sources is that the cap and tax lines will be frozen at about the level they were last year. There's not going to be this $20M drop that Windhorst talks about.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#95 » by PaulieWal » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:33 pm

xdrta+ wrote:
Lalouie wrote:
xdrta+ wrote:I'd say a better take would be that Windhorst has no idea what's about to happen.


no,,,but he's basing it on things as they are now


The best guess from most sources is that the cap and tax lines will be frozen at about the level they were last year. There's not going to be this $20M drop that Windhorst talks about.


They are being frozen because the owners are going to artificially hold the cap for next season. I mean we lost a bunch of RS games, when we came back there were no fans for the RS or the PS games, and you don't think that's going to be have a significant impact on the revenue? The cap is directly related to the revenue and the NBA has taken a substantial revenue hit this season
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#96 » by xdrta+ » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:43 pm

PaulieWal wrote:
xdrta+ wrote:
Lalouie wrote:
no,,,but he's basing it on things as they are now


The best guess from most sources is that the cap and tax lines will be frozen at about the level they were last year. There's not going to be this $20M drop that Windhorst talks about.


They are being frozen because the owners are going to artificially hold the cap for next season. I mean we lost a bunch of RS games, when we came back there were no fans for the RS or the PS games, and you don't think that's going to be have a significant impact on the revenue? The cap is directly related to the revenue and the NBA has taken a substantial revenue hit this season


That's all true, but I said nothing about revenue. Of course there's a big drop in revenue, but the cap will be frozen, there won't be a giant "capwave," and it will remain frozen even as revenues increase and things get back to normal. Unless you buy the Chicken Little theory that the NBA is finished, in years to come things will slowly normalize.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#97 » by killmongrel » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:50 pm

Why is it that I always imagine Windhorst being out of breath when he types?
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the wave that's about to hit them" 

Post#98 » by bigpimpatl » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:53 pm

Jkam31 wrote:Ratings don’t matter though


I don’t care about ratings.

I just like basketball.

If the NBA as an organization ain’t around, who cares? The NBA ain’t basketball. There will still be basketball, and there will still be people to pay to watch basketball. Life will move on!
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#99 » by spikeslovechild » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:14 pm

I don't care. Players will have to make do with less like millions of other Americans. Cry me a river windbag! I couldn't think of more undeserving group to cape for then a bunch of entitled millionaires.
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Re: Windhorst: "players have no idea about the capwave that's about to hit them" 

Post#100 » by Buckeye-NBAFan » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:17 pm

karkinos wrote:love how realgm posters speak with such confidence on what it means to be a billionaire and how there is like "no risk" in owning a team

atlanta hawks, buffalo bills, carolina panthers, and houston rockets were all bought and sold in the past 5 years

if it were easy money, they never would have been sold.


The bills, panthers and rockets were all sold for estate planning/estate distribution purposes

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