Presti's Endgame?

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How long before Thunder becomes a contender again?

2020/21 season
1
1%
2021/22 season
4
5%
2022/23 season
19
23%
in next 4-6 seasons
40
48%
in next 7-10 season
8
10%
I don't think they can realistically reach that heights again
11
13%
 
Total votes: 83

Un4given
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Presti's Endgame? 

Post#1 » by Un4given » Sun Nov 22, 2020 1:54 am

With the all the assets hoarded and the current cap flexibility at his disposal, what do You think his endgame is going to look like? Is OKC gonna rebuild strictly though draft or we can expect some major moves sooner rather then later?

I believe we won't see any major moves this season and that tank/development mode is currently fully activated but
as of Today this should be the situation for them entering the 2021/22 season. Feel free to correct me if I missed something with all those crazy activity in the last days...

Draft picks

2021: the two most favorable of own 1st round pick, Miami's 1st round pick and Houston's 1st round pick (if Houston pick lands 1-4, then it's OKC's + Miami's pick) + Golden State's 1st round pick (protected 1-20, if not conveyed Golden State's 2nd round pick in 2021 + Golden State's 2nd round pick in 2022)

2022: own 1 round pick (protected 1-14, else going to Atlanta) + Clippers' 1 round pick + Phoenix's first round pick (protected 1-12, if not conveyed then protected 1-10 in 2023, 1-8 in 2024 and unprotected in 2025) + own second round pick

2023: the more favorable between Clippers' 1 round pick and own first round pick + Miami's 1st round pick (protected 1-14, if not conveyed then protected 1-14 in 2024, 1-14 in 2025 and unprotected in 2026) + own second round pick + Hornets' second round pick

2024: own 1 round pick + Clippers 1st round pick + Houston's 1st round pick (protected 1-10, if not conveyed Houston's 2nd round pick in 2024 + Houston's 2nd round pick in 2025) + Denver's first round pick (protected 1-14) + own second round pick + Minnesota's 2nd round pick + Washington's second round pick

2025: the most favorable of own 1st round pick, Clippers 1st round pick and Houston's 1st round pick (if Houston pick lands 1-10, then more favorable between Clippers' 1 round pick and own first round pick) + own second round pick

2026: own 1 round pick + Clippers 1st round pick + Houston's 1st round pick (protected 1-4, if not conveyed Houston's 2nd round pick in 2026) + own second round pick

Amazing stash with probably biggest concern in fact that Houston could actually suck enough in forthcoming years for some of those protections being activated.


Payroll

Al Horford: $27M / $26,5M ($14,5M guaranteed)
George Hill: $10M ($1,3M guaranteed)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: $5,5M TO / $7,5M QO with $16,5M CH
Darius Bazley: $2,5M (TO) / $4,3M (TO) / $6,2M QO with $12,8M CH
Ty Jerome: $2,4M (TO) / $4,2M (TO) / $6,2M QO with $12,7M CH
Luguentz Dort: $1,8M ($0,2M guaranteed) / $2,0M ($0,3M guaranteed)
Isaiah Roby: $1,8M (non guaranteed) / $2,0M (TO)
Kyle Singler: $1,0M (dead cap)
Aleksej Pokusevski: draft rights with contract starting around $2,7M

They are obviously going to sign few more guys in next few days but I'm expecting a combination of 1yr contracts and cheap guys with some untapped potential. I see Horford, SGA, Dort, Pokusevski and Bazley as the only guys I'm considering a sure thing to remain in books before entering 2021 FA. With $1,3M guaranteed money Hill is owed + dead cap of Singler that should still leave them around $70M below the cap, $60M if You take into consideration reservations for unsigned draft picks and free roaster space.

Personally, I think Presti is smart enough not to overplay his cards like Ainge tends to do sometimes or try to exclusive build through draft following Hinkie footsteps. The biggest think staying on his way is unfortunately being in a relatively small market. Imagine Knicks being in this situation, we would probably already have multiple fantasy scenarios of possible superteams.

So do You think there is a chance of Oklahoma becoming title contender any time soon? And if so, is few years of building through draft the only way or it could be done through trades and signing free agents?
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#2 » by HotelVitale » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:00 am

You don't get to say when you're going to become a contender again. The whole point is just to put yourself in a position to take advantage of opportunities that could arise, but you have no control over when those opportunities will come or if you're going to be able to capitalize on them. If I was betting, I would guess that the Thunder don't become contenders any time soon because rebuilding from nothing to contending status is extremely difficult. (Also because the majority of the upcoming draft picks aren't blue chip type things that could easily net you stars, the ones coming up in the next few years are mostly from good to great teams so they're unlikely to find you big building blocks.) It's been really cool to see OKC make a lot of clever, well-calculated moves over the past 2 years but none of those lay a path to contention on their own, need a ton of luck for that to work.
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#3 » by ThunderBolt » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:02 am

A true contender? Four to six seasons at best. There is a lot of room for progress between true contender and where they are today.
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#4 » by Tor_Raps » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:03 am

They hope to land another star from the draft and then they'll be in a spot to trade for any disgruntled star. How can a team turn down an offer for all those picks?

OKC just has to make sure they don't "Ainge" the draft picks lol.
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#5 » by Capn'O » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:06 am

HotelVitale wrote:You don't get to say when you're going to become a contender again. The whole point is just to put yourself in a position to take advantage of opportunities that could arise, but you have no control over when those opportunities will come or if you're going to be able to capitalize on them. If I was betting, I would guess that the Thunder don't become contenders any time soon because rebuilding from nothing to contending status is extremely difficult. (Also because the majority of the upcoming draft picks aren't blue chip type things that could easily net you stars, the ones coming up in the next few years are mostly from good to great teams so they're unlikely to find you big building blocks.) It's been really cool to see OKC make a lot of clever, well-calculated moves over the past 2 years but none of those lay a path to contention on their own, need a ton of luck for that to work.


They do have a blue chip prospect and some other good ones which helps.
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#6 » by Cactus Jack » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:07 am

ThunderBolt wrote:A true contender? Four to six seasons at best. There is a lot of room for progress between true contender and where they are today.

Depends on what the OP is implying here. Landing a player the caliber of KD again (via the draft) is very very small. They basically hit the lottery & drafted three future MVP's in back to back to back years.

If they rebuild the right way (which it looks like they will), they could be a playoff team in 2-3 years again.

But again, the chances of them replicating the original big 3 (KD, Russ, Harden) is small. :wink:
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#7 » by Soulyss » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:11 am

They will need to draft a first team all nba to be a contender... then augment with those picks and via trade. Assuming a top3 pick next year ans the year after that... 4 yrs out seems about right.
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#8 » by namlede » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:19 am

OKC already has a blue chip prospect which speeds up the process. But it really comes down to can OKC get really high picks in the next 2 years and hit on them. If they hit on them they could be contending in 4 years, if not will be longer.

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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#9 » by Un4given » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:33 am

Cactus Jack wrote:
ThunderBolt wrote:A true contender? Four to six seasons at best. There is a lot of room for progress between true contender and where they are today.

Depends on what the OP is implying here. Landing a player the caliber of KD again (via the draft) is very very small. They basically hit the lottery & drafted three future MVP's in back to back to back years.

If they rebuild the right way (which it looks like they will), they could be a playoff team in 2-3 years again.

But again, the chances of them replicating the original big 3 (KD, Russ, Harden) is small. :wink:


Well, I was actually thinking about all those posts how Presti is genius for collecting picks and most people assuming that rebuilding through draft is a sure thing and only possibility for them despite drafting is a ****shot in most case and like You've said they already use their lottery draft ticket by landing 3 MVPs in a row.

Also, I was trying to imagine how much must be easier to be a GM of a big market team. Don't get me wrong, but if this was the thread about Lakers, Knicks or some other "major" team being in the same place as Thunder is now, my guess is that most people would see that team with similar assets and quite a clean payroll sheet as a contender in two or max 3 years. With ideas like trade Horford + picks for superstar #1 then sign another two via free agency (not necessary in that order). And You already have forth star on cheap contract which You could easily resign using bird rights, some nice role players on great deals and trade exceptions to land few more players who are going to take a paycut to get their ring.
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#10 » by DunkedOn » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:35 am

Hold onto SGA, hopefully hit on next year's draft, potentially getting a star via a trade down the road.
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#11 » by macNcheese3 » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:37 am

I don’t see them becoming a “true contender” for many years. They have to get the right prospects through the draft, develop and make the right signings all around. Presti was never great at signing role players.
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#12 » by Jabroni Lames » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:37 am

The end-game is lifetime employment by lowering expectations and making people salivate over future “potential” without actually winning.
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#13 » by Best2EverDoIt » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:41 am

ThunderBolt wrote:A true contender? Four to six seasons at best. There is a lot of room for progress between true contender and where they are today.
Idk man, it took Ainge 2 or 3 years, and I don't think he's half the GM Presti is.
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#14 » by Cactus Jack » Sun Nov 22, 2020 2:57 am

Best2EverDoIt wrote:
ThunderBolt wrote:A true contender? Four to six seasons at best. There is a lot of room for progress between true contender and where they are today.
Idk man, it took Ainge 2 or 3 years, and I don't think he's half the GM Presti is.

If they're bad enough & land good picks (top 3/5). Then it could speed up the process.

Ainge had the Brooklyn picks up his sleeve. Which really saved his ass. If Presti can replicate that, then they'll be in good shape.
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#15 » by DrCoach » Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:01 am

Easy, try to draft another KD, Harden and Westbrook and hopefully owners pay them. Plus they will have caproom and assets to get FA’s or trade for them.
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#16 » by djsunyc » Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:09 am

with 20 first round picks, he's hoping there's a few infinity stones in there somewhere.
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#17 » by cjmcallist » Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:58 am

Four to six years is best case scenario. In that same scenario I think playoffs could happen in two to four years.

But, that’s really best case.

When Presti started this in Seattle it was a 10-12 year roadmap/plan. That’s part of why they didn’t pay the tax for Harden - they were planning to pay it several times in the future.

I think we see the same ten-ish year cycle here.
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#18 » by 76ciology » Sun Nov 22, 2020 5:36 am

I’d call it..

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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#19 » by ThunderBolt » Sun Nov 22, 2020 9:55 am

Best2EverDoIt wrote:
ThunderBolt wrote:A true contender? Four to six seasons at best. There is a lot of room for progress between true contender and where they are today.
Idk man, it took Ainge 2 or 3 years, and I don't think he's half the GM Presti is.

It could be faster if we win the cade Cunningham sweepstakes and he is as good as advertised. Also if someone on the roster takes a surprising leap, that helps too. However what if you miss with a couple of years of picks and some of your young guys have major injuries? You can be a good/great gm and have things not workout out right away. I hope it’s sooner but 4-6 years factors in that some things may not work out.
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Re: Presti's Endgame? 

Post#20 » by Dez » Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:09 am

I just assumed he wanted to be in a position where he had picks 1 through 30 in the same draft.

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