Re: 3rd year players - where they are - small sample size in 3rd season
Posted: Tue Jan 5, 2021 9:47 pm
by Buzzard
Huerter has started finishing in the paint. From what I have seen it has to to with his midrange shot just inside the foul line. His 2PT% has improved to .485 and his 3P% is a stellar .412. His minutes are also down by over 5 a game but it is not impacting his improved efficiency.
DeAndre Hunter. I saved the best for last. Hunter's minutes have not gone down but his efficiency has skyrocketed. His current TS% is .660. His counting stats are 15.9/6.7/2.0. Per 36 minutes he would be averaging 17.7/7.5/2.2. He is only a 2nd year player but I had to give him a mention.
Re: 3rd year players - where they are - small sample size in 3rd season
Posted: Tue Jan 5, 2021 10:03 pm
by Bob8
bwgood77 wrote:Found this interesting and I admit I do have Suns bias, but nice to see after 10 years of putrid play
What exactly does this TPA says? Graph looks funny. Nice pictures though.
Re: 3rd year players - where they are - small sample size in 3rd season
Posted: Tue Jan 5, 2021 10:03 pm
by Scalabrine
Not on the same level as a lot of those guys, but Kevin Knox has finally looked like a rotation level player. He's a versatile defender, his shooting mechanics look great, and he's just playing with way more confidence. He came in as the youngest player in the league, and was obviously really raw, but it's nice to see its starting to come together.
Re: 3rd year players - where they are - small sample size in 3rd season
Posted: Tue Jan 5, 2021 10:08 pm
by niQ
Bob8 wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:Found this interesting and I admit I do have Suns bias, but nice to see after 10 years of putrid play
What exactly does this TPA says? Graph looks funny. Nice pictures though.
total points added The concept of total points added (TPA). We're looking at both defensive and offensive effectiveness on a per-possession basis while also incorporating the amount of playing time the contributor in question receives. https://nbamath.com/tpa-model/
What exactly does this TPA says? Graph looks funny. Nice pictures though.
As such, the formula for TPA is rather simple. It’s broken down into two parts—offensive points added (OPA) and defensive points saved (DPS)—and each is calculated in the same vein.
OPA is derived by adjusting offensive box plus/minus (OBPM) to account for the number of possessions the player in question is present for. Similarly, DPS is derived from a similar adjustment of defensive box plus/minus (DBPM) with that same number of possessions. OBPM and DBPM, both calculated by Basketball-Reference.com, estimate the per-100-possessions value of a player on either end of the court.
Add OPA and DPS together, and you have TPA. A score of zero indicates a player was perfectly average (by no means a bad thing for rookies or lifelong end-of-bench players), while anything positive means they were better than an average-level replacement.
At the heart of the theory is this comparison between two hypothetical players:
Player A makes an average team 5 points better per 100 possessions than an average player would in his spot, and he plays 500 possessions. Player B makes an average team 10 points better per 100 possessions than an average player would in his spot, and he plays 250 possessions. Player B is more effective on a per-possession basis—twice as effective, in fact. But Player A spends twice as much time on the court. Theoretically, they should have identical values, as they would both add 25 points to an average team.
It shows minutes on that so you can kind of filter out small sample size if needed,but typically guys who add on offense and defense don't get a lot of minutes anyway so are on the left, usually below the line.
There are other charts that break down offense and defense.
Here you can see offense and defense....further to the right is offense, higher up is defense, so you see a guy like Trae, way ahead on offense, but really bad on defense.
What exactly does this TPA says? Graph looks funny. Nice pictures though.
total points added The concept of total points added (TPA). We're looking at both defensive and offensive effectiveness on a per-possession basis while also incorporating the amount of playing time the contributor in question receives. https://nbamath.com/tpa-model/
I understand that, but graph looks exaggerated. You have vast majority of players very close. Too close. And then you have extreme differences in the corners. Bagley has bad season, but not that bad.
Re: 3rd year players - where they are - small sample size in 3rd season
Posted: Tue Jan 5, 2021 10:26 pm
by blueNorange
mitchell robinson
Re: 3rd year players - where they are - small sample size in 3rd season
Posted: Tue Jan 5, 2021 10:26 pm
by Prez
Donte is awesome and I’m honestly glad the Bogdan trade didn’t happen. Good swiss army knife 4th guy after Giannis/Jrue/Khris
Re: 3rd year players - where they are - small sample size in 3rd season
Posted: Tue Jan 5, 2021 10:34 pm
by Duffman100
Scalabrine wrote:Not on the same level as a lot of those guys, but Kevin Knox has finally looked like a rotation level player. He's a versatile defender, his shooting mechanics look great, and he's just playing with way more confidence. He came in as the youngest player in the league, and was obviously really raw, but it's nice to see its starting to come together.
I've oddly believed in Knox and wanted the Raps to make an offer for him this offseason. His shooting stroke looked good and I always thought he was close. Glad to see him developing.
Re: 3rd year players - where they are - small sample size in 3rd season
Posted: Tue Jan 5, 2021 10:38 pm
by Texas Chuck
Trae and Bagley on that 2nd graph.
Re: 3rd year players - where they are - small sample size in 3rd season
Posted: Tue Jan 5, 2021 10:40 pm
by 510TWSS
sss but it's not a good look for Marvin. If he wants out of Sac he better start ballin
Re: 3rd year players - where they are - small sample size in 3rd season
Posted: Tue Jan 5, 2021 10:52 pm
by Bob8
bwgood77 wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Spoiler:
bwgood77 wrote:Found this interesting and I admit I do have Suns bias, but nice to see after 10 years of putrid play
What exactly does this TPA says? Graph looks funny. Nice pictures though.
As such, the formula for TPA is rather simple. It’s broken down into two parts—offensive points added (OPA) and defensive points saved (DPS)—and each is calculated in the same vein.
OPA is derived by adjusting offensive box plus/minus (OBPM) to account for the number of possessions the player in question is present for. Similarly, DPS is derived from a similar adjustment of defensive box plus/minus (DBPM) with that same number of possessions. OBPM and DBPM, both calculated by Basketball-Reference.com, estimate the per-100-possessions value of a player on either end of the court.
Add OPA and DPS together, and you have TPA. A score of zero indicates a player was perfectly average (by no means a bad thing for rookies or lifelong end-of-bench players), while anything positive means they were better than an average-level replacement.
At the heart of the theory is this comparison between two hypothetical players:
Player A makes an average team 5 points better per 100 possessions than an average player would in his spot, and he plays 500 possessions. Player B makes an average team 10 points better per 100 possessions than an average player would in his spot, and he plays 250 possessions. Player B is more effective on a per-possession basis—twice as effective, in fact. But Player A spends twice as much time on the court. Theoretically, they should have identical values, as they would both add 25 points to an average team.
It shows minutes on that so you can kind of filter out small sample size if needed,but typically guys who add on offense and defense don't get a lot of minutes anyway so are on the left, usually below the line.
There are other charts that break down offense and defense.
Here you can see offense and defense....further to the right is offense, higher up is defense, so you see a guy like Trae, way ahead on offense, but really bad on defense.
Then a guy like Bridges really on high defense, and good on offense as well.
Luka solid on offense, neutral on D.
Ayton, solid on defense, slightly positive on offense, which may be surprising based on his rookie year play.
Fat Luka looks pretty good on this graph. I always liked Bridges the most in Suns.
Re: 3rd year players - where they are - small sample size in 3rd season
Posted: Tue Jan 5, 2021 10:56 pm
by Buzzard
With a very small sample size it looks like Huerter should be starting. Bogi and Reddish coming off the bench. I do look for a change soon at the starting shooting guard spot.
Re: 3rd year players - where they are - small sample size in 3rd season
Posted: Tue Jan 5, 2021 11:01 pm
by Bob8
Buzzard wrote:With a very small sample size it looks like Huerter should be starting. Bogi and Reddish coming off the bench. I do look for a change soon at the starting shooting guard spot.
I don't believe this tells you anything how starting 5 should look.
Re: 3rd year players - where they are - small sample size in 3rd season
Posted: Tue Jan 5, 2021 11:05 pm
by Buzzard
Bob8 wrote:
Buzzard wrote:With a very small sample size it looks like Huerter should be starting. Bogi and Reddish coming off the bench. I do look for a change soon at the starting shooting guard spot.
I don't believe this tells you anything how starting 5 should look.
I am sure it does not tell you anything since you said so. It shows me Huerter is having a decent season. This is night and day compared to last season. He was not a neutral value defender or offensively efficient player last season. This season he is.
Re: 3rd year players - where they are - small sample size in 3rd season
Posted: Tue Jan 5, 2021 11:16 pm
by Bob8
Buzzard wrote:
Bob8 wrote:
Buzzard wrote:With a very small sample size it looks like Huerter should be starting. Bogi and Reddish coming off the bench. I do look for a change soon at the starting shooting guard spot.
I don't believe this tells you anything how starting 5 should look.
I am sure it does not tell you anything since you said so. It shows me Huerter is having a decent season. This is night and day compared to last season. He was not a neutral value defender or offensively efficient player last season. This season he is.
I didn't watch a single Hawks game, but it looks to me that Hawks had relatively light schedule and more importantly, it's not the same if you play against starters or bench. You basically need to find the best fit with Trae. I would say, whoever plays better D. should start.
