is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii

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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#81 » by sackings916 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:34 am

Duke4life831 wrote:
sackings916 wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:He’s a bust


Bagley is 21 years old and missed pretty much his entire sophomore season, and a quarter thru his 3rd season you have concluded he is a bust. Please explain.

He is the same player he was as a freshman at Duke. Trust me I am not a Bagley hater, Ive been the captain of the Bagley hype train for years now. But he is the same exact player he was at Duke 3 years ago. His per minute rebounds, steals, assists are all identical to his rookie year. His PPG are down and his blocks are cut in half. Rookie year he was at 56 TS% which was league average, so far this year he is at 54% which is 3% below league average.

The only thing where he has shown progression is his 3pt shot, but like I said in another post. The fact that his FT% has plummeted, I would lean to the 3pt shooting number as more of an outlier than the new norm. Since FT% is usually the best indication on shooting improvement. But even if the 3pt shooting is for real, he still hasn't improved his defensive awareness, he still has no right hand, he still doesn't know what the word pass means.


I agree with some of your points and disagree with others. I actually think with shooting you have it opposite, his 50% FT shooting is an outlier and his 3pt % is his norm lol. I guess we will see who’s right over time. He is still a bad defender yes, but he has shown some improvement recently and better awareness. Has also been sliding more and not as “hoppy” which leads to him being out of position a ton. Bagley right now is capable of being a 20/10 guy, the problem is he can’t stay on the floor long enough to get those numbers because he kills you on defense. If he can figure it out on defense to at least being average he’ll be OK.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#82 » by SNPA » Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:54 am

For those saying he should be playing at center...LOL.

Maybe someday he can be a center, but currently the Kings are historically atrocious on D and putting Bagley at center would be throwing jet fuel on that fire. It’d be unbelievably bad.

Having said that, Bags has started to show some signs on D. He isn’t hopping around as much, moving his feet better. And he has started to take some quality charges which shows some skill and awareness.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#83 » by Lalouie » Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:38 am

it looks better when you capitolize the "i" :D :D :D
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#84 » by Duke4life831 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:34 pm

sackings916 wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
sackings916 wrote:
Bagley is 21 years old and missed pretty much his entire sophomore season, and a quarter thru his 3rd season you have concluded he is a bust. Please explain.

He is the same player he was as a freshman at Duke. Trust me I am not a Bagley hater, Ive been the captain of the Bagley hype train for years now. But he is the same exact player he was at Duke 3 years ago. His per minute rebounds, steals, assists are all identical to his rookie year. His PPG are down and his blocks are cut in half. Rookie year he was at 56 TS% which was league average, so far this year he is at 54% which is 3% below league average.

The only thing where he has shown progression is his 3pt shot, but like I said in another post. The fact that his FT% has plummeted, I would lean to the 3pt shooting number as more of an outlier than the new norm. Since FT% is usually the best indication on shooting improvement. But even if the 3pt shooting is for real, he still hasn't improved his defensive awareness, he still has no right hand, he still doesn't know what the word pass means.


I agree with some of your points and disagree with others. I actually think with shooting you have it opposite, his 50% FT shooting is an outlier and his 3pt % is his norm lol. I guess we will see who’s right over time. He is still a bad defender yes, but he has shown some improvement recently and better awareness. Has also been sliding more and not as “hoppy” which leads to him being out of position a ton. Bagley right now is capable of being a 20/10 guy, the problem is he can’t stay on the floor long enough to get those numbers because he kills you on defense. If he can figure it out on defense to at least being average he’ll be OK.

Which was the exact same thing said his rookie year, but nothing has changed. He still is putting up the same production with slightly less scoring in the same amount of minutes as his rookie year because he is still the same exact player with the same exact issues.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#85 » by ItsDanger » Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:37 pm

SNPA wrote:For those saying he should be playing at center...LOL.

Maybe someday he can be a center, but currently the Kings are historically atrocious on D and putting Bagley at center would be throwing jet fuel on that fire. It’d be unbelievably bad.

Having said that, Bags has started to show some signs on D. He isn’t hopping around as much, moving his feet better. And he has started to take some quality charges which shows some skill and awareness.

WTF, its matchup dependent.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#86 » by SNPA » Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:41 pm

ItsDanger wrote:
SNPA wrote:For those saying he should be playing at center...LOL.

Maybe someday he can be a center, but currently the Kings are historically atrocious on D and putting Bagley at center would be throwing jet fuel on that fire. It’d be unbelievably bad.

Having said that, Bags has started to show some signs on D. He isn’t hopping around as much, moving his feet better. And he has started to take some quality charges which shows some skill and awareness.

WTF, its matchup dependent.

Bagley has a regular center would be a disaster currently. Small ball 5 against a team minus a real big...ok.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#87 » by sackings916 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:20 pm

Duke4life831 wrote:
sackings916 wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:He is the same player he was as a freshman at Duke. Trust me I am not a Bagley hater, Ive been the captain of the Bagley hype train for years now. But he is the same exact player he was at Duke 3 years ago. His per minute rebounds, steals, assists are all identical to his rookie year. His PPG are down and his blocks are cut in half. Rookie year he was at 56 TS% which was league average, so far this year he is at 54% which is 3% below league average.

The only thing where he has shown progression is his 3pt shot, but like I said in another post. The fact that his FT% has plummeted, I would lean to the 3pt shooting number as more of an outlier than the new norm. Since FT% is usually the best indication on shooting improvement. But even if the 3pt shooting is for real, he still hasn't improved his defensive awareness, he still has no right hand, he still doesn't know what the word pass means.


I agree with some of your points and disagree with others. I actually think with shooting you have it opposite, his 50% FT shooting is an outlier and his 3pt % is his norm lol. I guess we will see who’s right over time. He is still a bad defender yes, but he has shown some improvement recently and better awareness. Has also been sliding more and not as “hoppy” which leads to him being out of position a ton. Bagley right now is capable of being a 20/10 guy, the problem is he can’t stay on the floor long enough to get those numbers because he kills you on defense. If he can figure it out on defense to at least being average he’ll be OK.

Which was the exact same thing said his rookie year, but nothing has changed. He still is putting up the same production with slightly less scoring in the same amount of minutes as his rookie year because he is still the same exact player with the same exact issues.


Yes and my point is it’s not fair to label him a bust and not give him a chance to figure things out defensively when he’s 21 years old and a quarter of a way into his 3rd season, after missing pretty much his entire 2nd season.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#88 » by ItsDanger » Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:34 pm

In 4 games w/o Holmes, Bagley is 26 MPG 19.8 PPG 50% FG, 9 RPG. The Kings roster construction is the real issue.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#89 » by Duke4life831 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:44 pm

sackings916 wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
sackings916 wrote:
I agree with some of your points and disagree with others. I actually think with shooting you have it opposite, his 50% FT shooting is an outlier and his 3pt % is his norm lol. I guess we will see who’s right over time. He is still a bad defender yes, but he has shown some improvement recently and better awareness. Has also been sliding more and not as “hoppy” which leads to him being out of position a ton. Bagley right now is capable of being a 20/10 guy, the problem is he can’t stay on the floor long enough to get those numbers because he kills you on defense. If he can figure it out on defense to at least being average he’ll be OK.

Which was the exact same thing said his rookie year, but nothing has changed. He still is putting up the same production with slightly less scoring in the same amount of minutes as his rookie year because he is still the same exact player with the same exact issues.


Yes and my point is it’s not fair to label him a bust and not give him a chance to figure things out defensively when he’s 21 years old and a quarter of a way into his 3rd season, after missing pretty much his entire 2nd season.

But again its the complete lack of development in his entire game. He's not rebounding better, he's not passing the ball better, he still doesnt have a right hand, there has been no signs of improvement on defense. He is the same player he was when he first walked onto Duke's campus.

Again Im not a Bagley hater, I was one of his biggest supporters on here for a long time. But I have to call a spade a spade. He is the exact same player I saw 3.5 years ago play his first game at Duke. The total lack of progression in that time span is why Im off the Bagley train.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#90 » by sackings916 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:15 pm

Duke4life831 wrote:
sackings916 wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:Which was the exact same thing said his rookie year, but nothing has changed. He still is putting up the same production with slightly less scoring in the same amount of minutes as his rookie year because he is still the same exact player with the same exact issues.


Yes and my point is it’s not fair to label him a bust and not give him a chance to figure things out defensively when he’s 21 years old and a quarter of a way into his 3rd season, after missing pretty much his entire 2nd season.

But again its the complete lack of development in his entire game. He's not rebounding better, he's not passing the ball better, he still doesnt have a right hand, there has been no signs of improvement on defense. He is the same player he was when he first walked onto Duke's campus.

Again Im not a Bagley hater, I was one of his biggest supporters on here for a long time. But I have to call a spade a spade. He is the exact same player I saw 3.5 years ago play his first game at Duke. The total lack of progression in that time span is why Im off the Bagley train.


He doesn’t need to rebound better. He is reading double teams better knowing when to pass and be aggressive, he has already made improvements defensively this season. He will get stronger and smarter over time and with game reps which he hasn’t had up to this point. Are you watching the actual games to come up with these conclusions?
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#91 » by Duke4life831 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:30 pm

sackings916 wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
sackings916 wrote:
Yes and my point is it’s not fair to label him a bust and not give him a chance to figure things out defensively when he’s 21 years old and a quarter of a way into his 3rd season, after missing pretty much his entire 2nd season.

But again its the complete lack of development in his entire game. He's not rebounding better, he's not passing the ball better, he still doesnt have a right hand, there has been no signs of improvement on defense. He is the same player he was when he first walked onto Duke's campus.

Again Im not a Bagley hater, I was one of his biggest supporters on here for a long time. But I have to call a spade a spade. He is the exact same player I saw 3.5 years ago play his first game at Duke. The total lack of progression in that time span is why Im off the Bagley train.


He doesn’t need to rebound better. He is reading double teams better knowing when to pass and be aggressive, he has already made improvements defensively this season. He will get stronger and smarter over time and with game reps which he hasn’t had up to this point. Are you watching the actual games to come up with these conclusions?

Why doesnt he need to rebound better? 10 boards per 36 when youre 6'11 and super explosive. Yes he can improve on his rebounding.

His passing stats from his rookie year to this year are practically identical.

Rookie year: 23 passes per game, 1.8 potential assists per game, 0.1 secondary assists per game
This year: 25 passes per game, 1.8 potential assists per game, 0.1 secondary assists per game

He is sporting his career worse in DRAPM, DBPM, On/Off wise they were 2.3 points worse with him on the court his rookie year, this year they are 3.9 points worse with him on the court. And yes Im not only looking at stats, Ive watched plenty of Kings games, many posts on game threads where Im praising Fox as Im watching a Kings game. He still isnt getting consistent minutes on a bad team, because of his defense, that was the same issue for his rookie year.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#92 » by sip » Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:41 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:He's a bust. He was overpicked by at least 5-6 spots because the other top picks were refusing to meet with the Kings and Bagley was publicly saying he wanted to be a King. Which is why the guy who ran that draft no longer has that job with the team.

It was a bad pick, and he's done nothing in coming on 3 years to show any growth. Bigs who won't defend and can't space have no value and its made worse by being overdrafted so he makes big money for a rookie.

If a team offers an expiring and a 2nd they should take it as an addition by subtraction move. Maybe he eventually figures it out, but the Kings are starting to put some pieces into place and shouldn't be wasting more time with this guy.

I get fans just look at age and draft spot and think just give him time, but he's only got one more rookie year left and again at a big number so there is no value there. Smart franchises are willing to cut their losses. Fans hold on to the bitter end--as sadly do poorly run franchises and then he has a 12 game stretch late next year of 20/10 so they give him 4/$100M thinking he's arrived and now you've really hamstrung the franchise.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#93 » by sackings916 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:42 pm

Duke4life831 wrote:
sackings916 wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:But again its the complete lack of development in his entire game. He's not rebounding better, he's not passing the ball better, he still doesnt have a right hand, there has been no signs of improvement on defense. He is the same player he was when he first walked onto Duke's campus.

Again Im not a Bagley hater, I was one of his biggest supporters on here for a long time. But I have to call a spade a spade. He is the exact same player I saw 3.5 years ago play his first game at Duke. The total lack of progression in that time span is why Im off the Bagley train.


He doesn’t need to rebound better. He is reading double teams better knowing when to pass and be aggressive, he has already made improvements defensively this season. He will get stronger and smarter over time and with game reps which he hasn’t had up to this point. Are you watching the actual games to come up with these conclusions?

Why doesnt he need to rebound better? 10 boards per 36 when youre 6'11 and super explosive. Yes he can improve on his rebounding.

His passing stats from his rookie year to this year are practically identical.

Rookie year: 23 passes per game, 1.8 potential assists per game, 0.1 secondary assists per game
This year: 25 passes per game, 1.8 potential assists per game, 0.1 secondary assists per game

He is sporting his career worse in DRAPM, DBPM, On/Off wise they were 2.3 points worse with him on the court his rookie year, this year they are 3.9 points worse with him on the court. And yes Im not only looking at stats, Ive watched plenty of Kings games, many posts on game threads where Im praising Fox as Im watching a Kings game. He still isnt getting consistent minutes on a bad team, because of his defense, that was the same issue for his rookie year.


I’m not arguing Bagley is a good player now, my argument is that he has potential and has shown growth this season to not label him a bust at 21 years old. He has played what 100 games in the NBA? He has never had to play defense in college or before, his body is nowhere near developed or filled out yet. He has had no in game reps to learn or develop.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#94 » by SNPA » Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:46 pm

ItsDanger wrote:In 4 games w/o Holmes, Bagley is 26 MPG 19.8 PPG 50% FG, 9 RPG. The Kings roster construction is the real issue.

Not at all corollary, none less causal.

Putting Bagley at the Center in normal lineups right now would be absurd. It's just making a terrible defense worse by taking the best defensive player (Holmes) off the floor and putting Bagley against guys he can't defend.

Someday Bagley might be a Center, today he isn't close.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#95 » by Sactowndog » Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:50 pm

Soulyss wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:He's a bust. He was overpicked by at least 5-6 spots because the other top picks were refusing to meet with the Kings and Bagley was publicly saying he wanted to be a King. Which is why the guy who ran that draft no longer has that job with the team.

It was a bad pick, and he's done nothing in coming on 3 years to show any growth. Bigs who won't defend and can't space have no value and its made worse by being over drafted so he makes big money for a rookie.

If a team offers an expiring and a 2nd they should take it as an addition by subtraction move. Maybe he eventually figures it out, but the Kings are starting to put some pieces into place and shouldn't be wasting more time with this guy.

I get fans just look at age and draft spot and think just give him time, but he's only got one more rookie year left and again at a big number so there is no value there. Smart franchises are willing to cut their losses. Fans hold on to the bitter end--as sadly do poorly run franchises and then he has a 12 game stretch late next year of 20/10 so they give him 4/$100M thinking he's arrived and now you've really hamstrung the franchise.


Was he a poor pick... ABSOLUTELY, you pick DONCIC every, single, time... (Atlanta also screwed that up btw, no matter how many times they try to justify Trae Young... PHX as well).

Is he really a bust? He's shooting nearly 40% from 3pt, Give him 30+ minutes per game and he probably averages 15/10/2/1... I mean it's brutal to see that and then remembering you passed on DONCIC, but that is a FO failing, not Bagley's...

He's not a great defender, but he shouldn't be playing the PF... He's a C. I also don't understand why the heck he's only playing 25 MPG, to me that seems like a coaching / development issue.

I can't believe I am defending a member of the KANGZ... I feel so dirty...


He is even worse defensively at center as he doesn’t have the BBIQ to defend the pick and role. His only hope is to move his feet on the perimeter and be a 4. He is still horrible but he is doing a bit better. The truth is Bagley is one of the most fundamentally unsound players around.

For now he is driving the Kings tank and our hope for a high pick. So I keep him and play him this year. Might as well give him a year and see how he develops.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#96 » by Sactowndog » Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:59 pm

ItsDanger wrote:In 4 games w/o Holmes, Bagley is 26 MPG 19.8 PPG 50% FG, 9 RPG. The Kings roster construction is the real issue.


Yeah because Bagley can’t play center defensively and doesn’t stretch the floor on offense. Those numbers are the definition of empty stats because without Holmes we are terrible on D.

But again Bagley as tank commander works just fine.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#97 » by basketballRob » Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:50 pm

Sactowndog wrote:
ItsDanger wrote:In 4 games w/o Holmes, Bagley is 26 MPG 19.8 PPG 50% FG, 9 RPG. The Kings roster construction is the real issue.


Yeah because Bagley can’t play center defensively and doesn’t stretch the floor on offense. Those numbers are the definition of empty stats because without Holmes we are terrible on D.

But again Bagley as tank commander works just fine.
Wasn't impressed with Holmes when the Magic played them. I think Vuc got an easy 40 on him.

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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#98 » by Time for Change » Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:10 pm

If you take a step back and look at the thread, the bust callers are presenting statistics, evidence of lack of progression or improvement, injury concerns, defensive concerns. The non-bust argument is that in their opinion he has a “chance to be a 20/10 guy”. Hope and optimism is nice, but when all the evidence is pointing to the optimistic outcome being exceedingly unlikely, then maybe its time to reevaluate that opinion.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#99 » by SNPA » Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:11 pm

Time for Change wrote:If you take a step back and look at the thread, the bust callers are presenting statistics, evidence of lack of progression or improvement, injury concerns, defensive concerns. The non-bust argument is that in their opinion he has a “chance to be a 20/10 guy”. Hope and optimism is nice, but when all the evidence is pointing to the optimistic outcome being exceedingly unlikely, then maybe its time to reevaluate that opinion.

Lol. The guy came in the league really young, got hurt multiple times his rookie year, missed most of his second year and has less than half a season played this year...and his career average is 14.5/7.5/1. The guy has barely ever got comfortable before something happened. He can barely buy beer. The game is just starting to slow down for him.
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Re: is the jury still out on marvin bagley iii 

Post#100 » by HardenToSixers » Tue Feb 23, 2021 11:36 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
babyjax13 wrote:
To be fair to Bagley, he is shooting 39% from three this year on three attempts. Still a bust relative to available prospects, but he might turn into something useful, maybe a better Bobby Portis or a worse John Collins, in terms of playstyle.



I think I should have avoided the word "bust". It was clearly triggering to some other posters and it can be misleading. I don't mean he can't stick in the league for a dozen years and provide some offense for a bench. But it's hard to imagine a good team finding a way to start him.

I was aware he's shooting okay on low volume but he's still not a spacer because teams aren't concerned about him out there. He's shooting 40% because he's getting all day to shoot. Watch how teams defend him and how teams defend Bjelica when he gets into games. Bjelica is having a terrible shooting season because he can't get into rhythm without a consistent role, but teams are afraid of him and close out much harder.

It's like Delon Wright last year with Dallas. He shot a good percentage but if you watched the games he'd only shoot if he had 15 feet of space and passed up tons of shots the offense needed him to take. The percentages don't tell the whole story on how a guy impacts an offense.

gets called out on completely being wrong for saying a guy doesn't space the floor. downplays 39% from 3 on decent volume this season from a 21 year old big man using completely nonsense reasoning. finally admits that he was wrong calling him a bust by taking a jab at posters for saying he "triggered" them.

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