Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022

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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#61 » by JujitsuFlip » Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:09 pm

Lockdown504090 wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
Lockdown504090 wrote:its because of his role defensively. He has the best player all the time, hes going to get scored on. Then theres scheme, which doesnt allow him to get better stats and they match his minutes with the other teams best player, and often run lineups where his job is to play the guy without a lot of help to prevent the star from getting playmaking oppourtunities. Then theres the fact that the guys subbing him are all defenders and thats going to hurt his rating as well. Its just a stupid stat, the knicks have the 8th best defense and the guy with the overwhelming best draptor is derrick rose, who teams are actively looking to get matched up on their best player. Measuring something happening with the ball on offense is one thing, but measuring the absense of something happening(scoring) which defensive metrics want to do in a game with 5 guys and 1 ball isnt the same thing and theyre trying to make it so. 538 doesnt even think DRAPTOR is a serious way of measuring defensive impact and there isnt a coach in the league that even cares.

Essentially there isn't anything fundamentally flawed with either stat, especially when combined, you just do not like that stats do not back-up the eye test?

Which, that is a fine conclusion to come to. Its just the eye test isn't measurable, it's an opinion. Therefore, trying to discredit stats with no real alternative to factually prove your opinion, is not wise.

Sidebar, the Knicks have the 8th best defense by which metric?

You realize draymond is 68th in draptor and blake griffin is top 10 right?


Depends on the minutes played slider but yes I see through 16 games played Blake has a +6.7 compared to Dray who has a +1.0... However, I'm also aware that Dray is 2nd in DBPM at +3.7 when filtered or 12th when unfiltered versus Blake's +0.1. Hence, why I told you at the outset that I use these stats in conjunction with each other. I do not want to rely strictly on box metrics alone, why I incorporate a stat that has tracking data embedded in its calculation.

Therefore, I'm not sure this is a great gotcha moment, Blake isn't some awful defender like RJ is.

P.S. the Knicks are 18th in Drtg, 17th in defensive efficiency, and 18th in Drtg/A. Not sure where you pulled the 8th place ranking from, I guess leaning on the eye test while watching film... But 8th is wrong and inaccurate.
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#62 » by Kobe187 » Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:12 pm

BoatsNZones wrote:
Kobe187 wrote:Curry’s a good defender, he’s so quick and has great stamina, doesn’t take plays off, hustles for loose balls, has fast hands that cause disruption and gets a lot of deflections and steals, only weak point defensively is 1-on-1 iso, especially when teams get the switch on him and bigger players can take advantage of the lack of physical size and strength.

GS does a great job as a team defensively, they’re always moving, quick to switch and help-out teammates. Curry is a good defender but not close to all defensive-team. Green deserves to be on the all defensive team, Wiggins is also a very good defender.

RE ISO D, I'd just point out that it's a bit overblown in the modern NBA. Unless you're a big who is guarding a classic post-up big, isolations might happen for a player one to three times a week (certain players like Harden will hunt it, but they're often against multiple different players and end up containing some sort of help). I'm looking at last seasons ISO defensive stats on NBA.com (not sure I entirely trust them but it's what I have to work with), and Curry only averaged 0.6 ISO's per game defensively. He ranked in the 93rd percentile though (he's not a 93rd percentile level ISO defender, but it goes to show how much noise you can get in the stat when it happens at such a low rate). Harden is the only guy I've really seen have consistent success on Curry in ISO, and even that has backfired on the Rockets in the post-season at times. And Harden might be the best ISO guard in the game of the past 20 years when you factor in his foul rate.

So while I agree it's generally the weakest part of his defensive game, I think ISO D for guards is generally over-hyped based on just how infrequently it occurs. I'm much more concerned with a player having a high motor and high BBIQ of both his own defensive schemes + the opposing teams tendencies. You basically just want your defenders to have as few leaks as possible while being active/engaged/proactive, and that is what Curry does very well (especially considering just how much energy he has to emit on the other end).


Agree with this take, iso-ball defence for guards is so infrequent it’s pretty irrelevant, unfortunately it’s what many fans base their judgment of a players defence on, as optics for team defence and off-ball defence isn’t as easy to notice and understand.
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#63 » by Lockdown504090 » Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:12 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
Lockdown504090 wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:Essentially there isn't anything fundamentally flawed with either stat, especially when combined, you just do not like that stats do not back-up the eye test?

Which, that is a fine conclusion to come to. Its just the eye test isn't measurable, it's an opinion. Therefore, trying to discredit stats with no real alternative to factually prove your opinion, is not wise.

Sidebar, the Knicks have the 8th best defense by which metric?

You realize draymond is 68th in draptor and blake griffin is top 10 right?


Depends on the minutes played slider but yes I see through 16 games played Blake has a +6.7 compared to Dray who has a +1.0... However, I'm also aware that Dray is 2nd in DBPM at +3.7 when filtered or 12th when unfiltered versus Blake's +0.1. Hence, why I told you at the outset that I use these stats in conjunction with each other. I do not want to rely strictly on box metrics alone, why I incorporate a stat that has tracking data embedded in its calculation.

Therefore, I'm not sure this is a great gotcha moment, Blake isn't some awful defender like RJ is.

P.S. the Knicks are 18th in Drtg, 17th in defensive efficiency, and 18th in Drtg/A. Not sure where you pulled the 8th place ranking from, I guess leaning on the eye test while watching film... But 8th is wrong and inaccurate.

so hes 12th? or 68th or somewhere between? when they describe these numbers they even say theres a lot that they dont take into account that ive previously mentioned. youre defending these numbers harder than the people who make them :lol:
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#64 » by JujitsuFlip » Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:22 pm

Lockdown504090 wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
Lockdown504090 wrote:You realize draymond is 68th in draptor and blake griffin is top 10 right?


Depends on the minutes played slider but yes I see through 16 games played Blake has a +6.7 compared to Dray who has a +1.0... However, I'm also aware that Dray is 2nd in DBPM at +3.7 when filtered or 12th when unfiltered versus Blake's +0.1. Hence, why I told you at the outset that I use these stats in conjunction with each other. I do not want to rely strictly on box metrics alone, why I incorporate a stat that has tracking data embedded in its calculation.

Therefore, I'm not sure this is a great gotcha moment, Blake isn't some awful defender like RJ is.

P.S. the Knicks are 18th in Drtg, 17th in defensive efficiency, and 18th in Drtg/A. Not sure where you pulled the 8th place ranking from, I guess leaning on the eye test while watching film... But 8th is wrong and inaccurate.

so hes 12th? or 68th or somewhere between? when they describe these numbers they even say theres a lot that they dont take into account that ive previously mentioned. youre defending these numbers harder than the people who make them


Well, what is the alternative? Watching a couple highlight clips of a player and forming some inaccurate opinion that cannot be substantiated by facts or stats and then claiming it is reality? No thanks, amateur film study is not something that carries any weight in conversations or debates.
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#65 » by Duke4life831 » Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:45 pm

a8bil wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:
atlantabbq99 wrote:
This is true. Tony Allen and Jru Holiday never averaged 2.0 steals per game in any season, but by far elite defenders. Its all about opponents' FG%, which Curry is leading in the league right now.


No it’s not. There is no proven stat that shows who’s a great defenders. If we go by opponents FG%

Derrick Rose and Luke Kennard would be 1st team all defense at the guard positions.

This isn’t that hard. Watch Warriors games and tell me Curry is all defense caliber. Watch his defense compared to Payton’s, tell me he’s a better defender than Payton. Then watch a Bulls game and tell me he’s a better defender than Lonzo or Caruso. He’s not. There is a clear difference between the elite defensive guards and Curry.


It seems to me that any discussion that treats steals or opponents' FG% as irrelevant has gone hyperbolic. Sure, no single stat tells you who is an elite defender, but all of these stats, in context, are relevant.


I never said they’re irrelevant. I responded to a post that literally said “it’s all about opponents fg%”.

All I said in my post was, no it’s not all about opponents fg%. If that was the case Luke Kennard would be an elite defender this year. I never made the argument that opponents fg% shouldn’t be used.
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#66 » by alebaba » Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:16 pm

Draymond is carrying that defense.
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#67 » by a8bil » Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:24 pm

alebaba wrote:Draymond is carrying that defense.
He always is...and he's the field general, but that defense doesn't work without everyone contributing, which is easily observed by its effectiveness when, for example, guys like Oubre were on the floor. It's a switching defense and everyone plays their roles.
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#68 » by BoatsNZones » Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:30 pm

alebaba wrote:Draymond is carrying that defense.

He has 477 minutes on court and 344 minutes off court (59/41 split). The Warriors defense has actually been worse with Draymond on the floor to start the year (either way it has been elite... roughly equal to the Jazz' defensive rating with Gobert on the floor, as a comparison). So while he's the defensive QB and it is definitely his ship, no, he is not carrying/anchoring them. They are a well oiled machine. A "carry" job would be comparing the teams offensive rating of 118 with Curry on the floor (#1 in the NBA is the Jazz at 115) to their 106.5 offensive rating with him off the floor (would rank 23rd in the NBA). They actually have a better defensive rating with Curry on the floor and Draymond off then they do with Draymond on the floor and Curry off (granted, plenty of noise in these samples).
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#69 » by floppymoose » Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:43 pm

He definitely is the most important defensive piece for GS. His on court minutes are against different players and situations than his off court minutes. You can't draw too many conclusions from the split other than Green is being used intelligently by the coaching staff.
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#70 » by floppymoose » Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:54 pm

Also, I question the numbers quoted above. GS as a team is only +160 on the season. Green is +121. He's played 59% of the minutes but correlates to 76% of the winning. It's very heard to separate out defense from offense in nba stats. If you juice the offense enough you help the defense simply by reducing fast breaks for the opposition. That's why on Dirk's best season he was an amazing "defender". (I'm not trying to compare Green to Dirk, rather I'm saying we should look at overall impact because DBPM etc are unreliable at separating out defense.)

As for the original question, I think Curry would be in the running if the goal is to have a true PG on the defensive team. Not saying he would get it, just that he deserves consideration. But if you are going to just have a pair of bigger shooting guards instead than there are clearly better choices.
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#71 » by BoatsNZones » Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:22 pm

floppymoose wrote:Also, I question the numbers quoted above. GS as a team is only +160 on the season. Green is +121. He's played 59% of the minutes but correlates to 76% of the winning. It's very heard to separate out defense from offense in nba stats. If you juice the offense enough you help the defense simply by reducing fast breaks for the opposition. That's why on Dirk's best season he was an amazing "defender". (I'm not trying to compare Green to Dirk, rather I'm saying we should look at overall impact because DBPM etc are unreliable at separating out defense.)

As for the original question, I think Curry would be in the running if the goal is to have a true PG on the defensive team. Not saying he would get it, just that he deserves consideration. But if you are going to just have a pair of bigger shooting guards instead than there are clearly better choices.

It's hard to parse +/- like that though. Curry for example is a league leading +224. I know he's great and all, but I'm not sure we can argue he is correlated with 140% of the winning. You're right though that you have to take opposing lineups into account and it stands to reason that he is on the floor as much or more than anyone on the team against the other teams best offensive options (and tasked with much of the defensive attention that they create... indirectly or otherwise). He's clearly their best and most important defender, but I think my point that he does not "carry" their defense has merit and that the on/off offensive ratings for their opposition bear that out. This is a VERY smart/active/capable team defense (as virtually all truly great defenses have to be).
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#72 » by floppymoose » Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:09 pm

Yes, i understand that my wording on the player vs team plus/minus was loose. I do think Curry and Greens numbers within the team context provide some evidence of their importance, though, as opposed to just saying “the whole team is as good as Green”.
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#73 » by Lockdown504090 » Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:23 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
Lockdown504090 wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
Depends on the minutes played slider but yes I see through 16 games played Blake has a +6.7 compared to Dray who has a +1.0... However, I'm also aware that Dray is 2nd in DBPM at +3.7 when filtered or 12th when unfiltered versus Blake's +0.1. Hence, why I told you at the outset that I use these stats in conjunction with each other. I do not want to rely strictly on box metrics alone, why I incorporate a stat that has tracking data embedded in its calculation.

Therefore, I'm not sure this is a great gotcha moment, Blake isn't some awful defender like RJ is.

P.S. the Knicks are 18th in Drtg, 17th in defensive efficiency, and 18th in Drtg/A. Not sure where you pulled the 8th place ranking from, I guess leaning on the eye test while watching film... But 8th is wrong and inaccurate.

so hes 12th? or 68th or somewhere between? when they describe these numbers they even say theres a lot that they dont take into account that ive previously mentioned. youre defending these numbers harder than the people who make them


Well, what is the alternative? Watching a couple highlight clips of a player and forming some inaccurate opinion that cannot be substantiated by facts or stats and then claiming it is reality? No thanks, amateur film study is not something that carries any weight in conversations or debates.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/5/11/22423517/nba-defense-analytics-nikola-jokic

im just saying, dont hold up amateur statistics as if they are any better than amateur film study. Just watch the games. the guy had zach last night and the dude went 7-20 largely with RJ there. 3 of those were in transition as well. Its not that hard.
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#74 » by JujitsuFlip » Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:56 pm

Lockdown504090 wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
Lockdown504090 wrote:so hes 12th? or 68th or somewhere between? when they describe these numbers they even say theres a lot that they dont take into account that ive previously mentioned. youre defending these numbers harder than the people who make them


Well, what is the alternative? Watching a couple highlight clips of a player and forming some inaccurate opinion that cannot be substantiated by facts or stats and then claiming it is reality? No thanks, amateur film study is not something that carries any weight in conversations or debates.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/5/11/22423517/nba-defense-analytics-nikola-jokic

im just saying, dont hold up amateur statistics as if they are any better than amateur film study. Just watch the games. the guy had zach last night and the dude went 7-20 largely with RJ there. 3 of those were in transition as well. Its not that hard.

See, this is just one way your argument falls flat. The definition of amateur is "engaging or engaged in without payment; nonprofessional... done in an incompetent or inept way".

538 are professionals, lol... The founder Nate Silver is a statistician, that is his profession... He has an undergraduate degree in economics where he graduated with honors. Econmics is a lot about what? Numbers, you guessed it!

Sports reference or more directly basketball reference are professionals, lol the founder Sean Forman is a professional researcher... He has an undergraduate degree in mathematics and a doctorate in applied mathematics. I'd say this guy understands numbers.

So, I'm supposed to throw out these guys who have been studying math probably longer than you have been alive, in favor of "just watch the games"... That is the most absurd conclusion one could reach.

What credentials do you have that make your "film study" valid? You can watch one game and come away with a completely different opinion than some other guy watching the same game... How do you reconcile that difference? You go by who is older? Or do you go by who played at a higher level? Do you go by who is more formally educated? What is the measure to reach the correct conclusion on the tape just watched?

It's all hoopla, if you don't understand stats, that is perfectly okay. No one in their right mind believes just "watching games" is a valid way to reach conclusions, it can not objectively be cross examined; your film watching is not quantifiable.
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#75 » by Pennebaker » Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:35 am

Curry will never make an all-defensive team.

In general, once you get his reputation for defense it never changes in terms of all-defensive votes.
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#76 » by Rodwilliams » Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:17 pm

rtiff68 wrote:
Rodwilliams wrote:
rtiff68 wrote:
This.


I’m surprised you’re agreeing with a Anti Curry post.


I seek to have objective takes on all players and teams, whether I’m a fan of them or not.

It’s the opposite of deciding what you want your conclusion to be at the start, then trying to force reality to reflect that pre-determined conclusion.

You should give it a try. ;)



Lol ok I can respect that. That’s fair. Just don’t have a Harry Garris type of meltdown on me.
Harry Garris wrote: Curry can turn non playoff teams into title contenders.

Not if the team doesn’t have elite defenders[/quote]
What a pointless statement.Every Finals team had elite role players[/quote]
Rodwilliams wrote:Duh!Thats what I just said. Eat your own words
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#77 » by axeman23 » Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:50 pm

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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#78 » by nate33 » Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:54 pm

atlantabbq99 wrote:Currently the in the last 15 games, the opposing PG or whoever Curry is guarding is only shooting 32FG%, with only Trea Young and Ja Morant able to shoot above 50FG% in their games against Curry.

Source?

Is this from player tracking data with Curry isolated against these guys? Or are you just looking at box scores that show these guys haven't scored well when facing the Warriors? There's a big difference between the two. First, is Curry actually guarding these guys, or are they parking Curry onto a secondary offensive player? And how much help is Curry getting from teammates? And how often is it Gary Payton who is actually shutting these guys down?
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#79 » by HabsAndDubs » Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:54 pm

No, but he’ll get votes. It would be super cool to add an all-defence team now to his resume though. He’s been excellent defensively this year, and has improved drastically over the last few years.

Basically if Steph is your worst defender on the court, you probably have elite defence.
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Re: Will Curry make the All Defensive Team in 2022 

Post#80 » by bbalnation » Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:02 pm

nate33 wrote:
atlantabbq99 wrote:Currently the in the last 15 games, the opposing PG or whoever Curry is guarding is only shooting 32FG%, with only Trea Young and Ja Morant able to shoot above 50FG% in their games against Curry.

Source?

Is this from player tracking data with Curry isolated against these guys? Or are you just looking at box scores that show these guys haven't scored well when facing the Warriors? There's a big difference between the two. First, is Curry actually guarding these guys, or are they parking Curry onto a secondary offensive player? And how much help is Curry getting from teammates? And how often is it Gary Payton who is actually shutting these guys down?


Gary Payton II is averaging 14 minutes a game.

I dont know about the other stats as im curious too (not so much about how much help he's getting: the Warriors play team defense and remain first despite the surrounding personnel changes), but keep in mind, you're asking the other poster to bring sources and/or context to the stats hes presenting, then bringing up a player who plays a quarter of a game up in the context of superstar guards who play 33+ mins.

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