2021-22 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt. 1)

[jg77]

Curry well on his way to a MVP at age 33/34... simply amazing. He just gotta stay healthy.

[TwoStarz]

I think it'll come down to Giannis and Curry. For some reason I don't see the Nets holding on to the top seed and plus I think Nash and Nets management want to make sure that KD/Harden are completely healthy for the playoff run especially if Irving isn't coming back by all accounts. Only reason Jokic can't win it is because his team record probably won't be good enough(needs to be at least 3 seed). Lavine won't win it but he's going to get a lot of love because the Bulls basement to me in the East is no lower than 4 and who knows how high they could finish.

Curry and GSW have to watch out for the Suns/Jazz for the top record so it won't be easy and I expect Curry to miss about 10-15 games this season eventually. Giannis and the Bucks will only get better as they start to heal and get players back and gel. And the Bucks as it currently stands right now have the best big 3 in the league and the wins will only increase as they start to play more.

They likely ain't catching Golden State in wins no matter how well their "Big 3" plays.

[TwoStarz]

Curry will likely set a new single season record for threes made plus the all time in the same season. He has a lot of the narrative working for him and its something voters remember. No one is going to take a deep dive into Jokics advance numbers to cast a vote...

Only ones with a real chance IMO are Giannis and KD with Giannis likely finishing second. Giannis was my pick before the season started, for whatever its worth.

[scrabbarista]

Curry will likely set a new single season record for threes made plus the all time in the same season. He has a lot of the narrative working for him and its something voters remember. No one is going to take a deep dive into Jokics advance numbers to cast a vote...

Only ones with a real chance IMO are Giannis and KD with Giannis likely finishing second. Giannis was my pick before the season started, for whatever its worth.

Not like they'd have to dive that deep: he has the highest PER and BPM in NBA history, and all of the impact stats to back up those records.

But you're actually right. Nobody's going to look past a losing record. DEN's roster is at a point where guys are playing over 20 minutes literally the same day they sign their contract. The team is about +13 when Jokic is on the court and -15 when he's off the court.

MVP has always been a team award, though, so it's not like it would break precedence for Curry to win it. He's got pretty much the typical MVP resume right now.

[nikster]

Curry will likely set a new single season record for threes made plus the all time in the same season. He has a lot of the narrative working for him and its something voters remember. No one is going to take a deep dive into Jokics advance numbers to cast a vote...

Only ones with a real chance IMO are Giannis and KD with Giannis likely finishing second. Giannis was my pick before the season started, for whatever its worth.

I dont know its likely he breaks his record. He would have to keep this pace up for 73 games

[Ron Swanson]

I mean, no. Record isn't basically the only thing that matters, but you'd think it was based on how most people are already crowning Steph a quarter way into the season. His overall numbers (PER, WS/48, on/off) aren't really that close to either of his two previous MVP campaigns (2015 and 16). Guys like Jokic and Giannis are annihilating him in box and impact metrics outside of scoring, and only one of those guys has the "team record" working against him at this point.

If that continues then GS is either gonna have to run away with the #1 seed (mid-60ish wins) or Steph is gonna have to really elevate his numbers and avoid those meh and stinker type games (3 out of the last 4 he's been pretty mediocre). This is actually shaping up to be an incredibly intriguing race between Steph and Giannis, with Jokic having a remote shot if the Nuggets can start getting healthy and make serious run.

[jokeboy86]

I think it'll come down to Giannis and Curry. For some reason I don't see the Nets holding on to the top seed and plus I think Nash and Nets management want to make sure that KD/Harden are completely healthy for the playoff run especially if Irving isn't coming back by all accounts. Only reason Jokic can't win it is because his team record probably won't be good enough(needs to be at least 3 seed). Lavine won't win it but he's going to get a lot of love because the Bulls basement to me in the East is no lower than 4 and who knows how high they could finish.

Curry and GSW have to watch out for the Suns/Jazz for the top record so it won't be easy and I expect Curry to miss about 10-15 games this season eventually. Giannis and the Bucks will only get better as they start to heal and get players back and gel. And the Bucks as it currently stands right now have the best big 3 in the league and the wins will only increase as they start to play more.

They likely ain't catching Golden State in wins no matter how well their "Big 3" plays.

Wait, so we're only 24 games in the season and the Bucks are 4.5 games back but GSW is uncatchable? And apologies to GSW but their only impressive victories imo are beating CHI and a PHX team that beat them earlier in the week and were missing their 2nd most important player for the entire 2nd game. Otherwise they like the Bucks and Suns have done what they're supposed to do and beat the bad-to-mediocre teams. Before we crown GSW let's see how they look against other good(and healthier) teams. I'm not of the opinion they're just head and shoulders above everyone else like this is '16 or '17..

[BoatsNZones]

I tend to trust RAPTOR and EPM more than the other catch all stats and looking at it now Curry actually ranks #1 in RAPTOR War and #2 in EPM to Jokic. He’s also #1 in WinShares. This following a down-week for him is still more than solid enough to appease the advanced # crowd despite trailing in some other more common statistics. Giannis is the guy I said will make the best push to catch him (assuming health for everyone), and he’s begun to do so already.

Preseason expectation/narrative wise it’s still Curry and rest as is though, and worth noting I suppose that the Bucks have currently had the easiest strength of schedule in the NBA.

[Doctor MJ]

I mean, no. Record isn't basically the only thing that matters, but you'd think it was based on how most people are already crowning Steph a quarter way into the season. His overall numbers (PER, WS/48, on/off) aren't really that close to either of his two previous MVP campaigns (2015 and 16). Guys like Jokic and Giannis are annihilating him in box and impact metrics outside of scoring, and only one of those guys has the "team record" working against him at this point.

If that continues then GS is either gonna have to run away with the #1 seed (mid-60ish wins) or Steph is gonna have to really elevate his numbers and avoid those meh and stinker type games (3 out of the last 4 he's been pretty mediocre). This is actually shaping up to be an incredibly intriguing race between Steph and Giannis, with Jokic having a remote shot if the Nuggets can start getting healthy and make serious run.

I think you also have to factor in the "narrative wind".

I said before the season the wind was blowing favorably for Durant & Curry but against Jokic, and I stand by that. Love both players, but voters are ready to give Curry another MVP and not ready to give Jokic another one, hence, if there's anything resembling a tie, the votes probably break Curry's way.

Giannis doesn't have an obvious wind the same way. Last year the wind against Giannis was HARD against him, but after winning the title, I think voters would be fine giving Giannis the MVP again so long as he has all the regular season things going for him. It will be tough unless the Bucks end up with an elite record - which granted, they might.

For Durant it's interesting because I think people are eager to give him another MVP...but I think his team really needs an elite record in order to get him there especially with the way his old team looks.

[Mickey8]

Jokic was a really disappointing against Orlando and Chicago , his lack of aggression from the get go, not taking the shots early in the games , got him self into the bad shooting rhythm , he needs to be aggressive from the start in every game , also I think he might re injured his wrist in Chicago game, there was a guy from Denver medical stuff looking at that wrist when Jokic was on the bench and Jokic was holding his hand in the towel too, I don't think his wrist is 100% healed, maybe they rushed him too early to come back, I hope I am wrong.

[MindState]

I mean, no. Record isn't basically the only thing that matters, but you'd think it was based on how most people are already crowning Steph a quarter way into the season. His overall numbers (PER, WS/48, on/off) aren't really that close to either of his two previous MVP campaigns (2015 and 16). Guys like Jokic and Giannis are annihilating him in box and impact metrics outside of scoring, and only one of those guys has the "team record" working against him at this point.

If that continues then GS is either gonna have to run away with the #1 seed (mid-60ish wins) or Steph is gonna have to really elevate his numbers and avoid those meh and stinker type games (3 out of the last 4 he's been pretty mediocre). This is actually shaping up to be an incredibly intriguing race between Steph and Giannis, with Jokic having a remote shot if the Nuggets can start getting healthy and make serious run.

You have to factor in voter fatigue, and the fact that Curry is doing this while 40+ million a year in salary are sitting in street clothes, and hes getting triple teamed or trapped on every posession.

No other player would be able to get their team to the best record in the league while being defended like this and missing this much talent. Which is why Curry is the MVP.

Watch on YouTube

[Ron Swanson]

I mean, no. Record isn't basically the only thing that matters, but you'd think it was based on how most people are already crowning Steph a quarter way into the season. His overall numbers (PER, WS/48, on/off) aren't really that close to either of his two previous MVP campaigns (2015 and 16). Guys like Jokic and Giannis are annihilating him in box and impact metrics outside of scoring, and only one of those guys has the "team record" working against him at this point.

If that continues then GS is either gonna have to run away with the #1 seed (mid-60ish wins) or Steph is gonna have to really elevate his numbers and avoid those meh and stinker type games (3 out of the last 4 he's been pretty mediocre). This is actually shaping up to be an incredibly intriguing race between Steph and Giannis, with Jokic having a remote shot if the Nuggets can start getting healthy and make serious run.

You have to factor in voter fatigue, and the fact that Curry is doing this while 40+ million a year in salary are sitting in street clothes, and hes getting triple teamed or trapped on every posession.

No other player would be able to get their team to the best record in the league while being defended like this and missing this much talent. Which is why Curry is the MVP.

Watch on YouTube

I'm not gonna get into a discussion downplaying Curry, he's been phenomenal. But the Warriors are a +5.3 net-rating with Curry off the court thus far. So I'm not really buying the "carry job" argument with him quite yet. Their bench lineups have been absolutely killing it. At the very least, it's something to monitor going forward.

[Big J]

I mean, no. Record isn't basically the only thing that matters, but you'd think it was based on how most people are already crowning Steph a quarter way into the season. His overall numbers (PER, WS/48, on/off) aren't really that close to either of his two previous MVP campaigns (2015 and 16). Guys like Jokic and Giannis are annihilating him in box and impact metrics outside of scoring, and only one of those guys has the "team record" working against him at this point.

If that continues then GS is either gonna have to run away with the #1 seed (mid-60ish wins) or Steph is gonna have to really elevate his numbers and avoid those meh and stinker type games (3 out of the last 4 he's been pretty mediocre). This is actually shaping up to be an incredibly intriguing race between Steph and Giannis, with Jokic having a remote shot if the Nuggets can start getting healthy and make serious run.

You have to factor in voter fatigue, and the fact that Curry is doing this while 40+ million a year in salary are sitting in street clothes, and hes getting triple teamed or trapped on every posession.

No other player would be able to get their team to the best record in the league while being defended like this and missing this much talent. Which is why Curry is the MVP.

Watch on YouTube

I'm not gonna get into a discussion downplaying Curry, he's been phenomenal. But the Warriors are a +5.3 net-rating with Curry off the court thus far. So I'm not really buying the "carry job" argument with him quite yet. Their bench lineups have been absolutely killing it. At the very least, it's something to monitor going forward.

I think that Curry's leadership has to factor in as well. Every guy on that team seems like they would run through a brick wall for him. I think that is part of the reason that their bench has been going balls out. They don't want to let him down. Don't get that same vibe from Joker honestly.

[MindState]

I mean, no. Record isn't basically the only thing that matters, but you'd think it was based on how most people are already crowning Steph a quarter way into the season. His overall numbers (PER, WS/48, on/off) aren't really that close to either of his two previous MVP campaigns (2015 and 16). Guys like Jokic and Giannis are annihilating him in box and impact metrics outside of scoring, and only one of those guys has the "team record" working against him at this point.

If that continues then GS is either gonna have to run away with the #1 seed (mid-60ish wins) or Steph is gonna have to really elevate his numbers and avoid those meh and stinker type games (3 out of the last 4 he's been pretty mediocre). This is actually shaping up to be an incredibly intriguing race between Steph and Giannis, with Jokic having a remote shot if the Nuggets can start getting healthy and make serious run.

You have to factor in voter fatigue, and the fact that Curry is doing this while 40+ million a year in salary are sitting in street clothes, and hes getting triple teamed or trapped on every posession.

No other player would be able to get their team to the best record in the league while being defended like this and missing this much talent. Which is why Curry is the MVP.

Watch on YouTube

I'm not gonna get into a discussion downplaying Curry, he's been phenomenal. But the Warriors are a +5.3 net-rating with Curry off the court thus far. So I'm not really buying the "carry job" argument with him quite yet. Their bench lineups have been absolutely killing it. At the very least, it's something to monitor going forward.

Net rating, none of that matters. What matters is, hes the best player, on the best team, while also missing multiple players worth 40 million a year in salary. Which means his team is handicapped due to lack of talent, yet hes still got them in 1st place.

Thats all that matters when it comes to the MVP race.

[WarriorGM]

It's Curry's to lose. Giannis may be the star of the defending champion but Curry was the one last year pulling in the viewers and is doing so again this year. Taking into account the disparity with current and preseason expectations and also where they are in their respective careers and it becomes a lopsided case. The Bucks will have to have a better record or Curry to fall off for Giannis to win else the MVP is going to look sketchy.

[The-Power]

I mean, no. Record isn't basically the only thing that matters, but you'd think it was based on how most people are already crowning Steph a quarter way into the season. His overall numbers (PER, WS/48, on/off) aren't really that close to either of his two previous MVP campaigns (2015 and 16).

I think painted with a broad brush it looks quite similar to his 2015 MVP season overall. Numbers are slightly lower but still awfully close: 8.0 to 8.2 OBPM, .266 to .288 WS/48, 25.8 to 28.0 PER, +16.1 to +16.7 on-court net rating, +8.2 to +8.6 Off. RAPTOR). The overall all-in-one numbers are a bit down mainly due to boxscore estimates for defense and I'd guess virtually anyone who has watched Curry closely over the years would have him as a better defender this year compared to 2015. It's probably his best defensive season of his career thus far.

I'm not gonna get into a discussion downplaying Curry, he's been phenomenal. But the Warriors are a +5.3 net-rating with Curry off the court thus far. So I'm not really buying the "carry job" argument with him quite yet. Their bench lineups have been absolutely killing it. At the very least, it's something to monitor going forward.

I'd like to point out that ‘bench line-ups’ don't really exist anymore for the Warriors. Curry has been on the bench for 370 minutes this season. In those minutes, Poole was on the court 89% of the time, Wiggins 55% of the time, and Green 44% of the time. Those three plus Curry are our core players in the starting line-up (Looney is a token starter, minutes-wise).

So you'd expect the non-Curry line-ups to not suck when some combination of starters are on the court most of the time. Of course, we've also had great bench production, that's absolutely true. That does not diminish Curry's value, though. The fact that Curry-led line-ups have a +16.1 net rating is quite insane considering that it's right up there with the 2015-19 Warriors when Curry was on the court, and nobody had the current Warriors team anywhere close to those iterations in terms of talent prior to the season.

In the past, there was also a lot of collinearity with Draymond because Kerr played those two together most of the time. This year, Curry plays fewer minutes with Green than usually and the data suggest that Curry is clearly the driver behind this year's success so far – even though Green is having a great bounce-back season himself.

Green-led line-ups without Curry have a +7.5 net rating in 161 minutes. In 98% of those minutes, Poole is on the court with him. In 75% of those minutes, Wiggins is on the court with him. So that's a lot of minutes shared with the other core players.

Curry-led line-ups without Green have a +23.7 net rating in 254 minutes. In only 9% of those minutes, Poole is on the court with him. In only 18% of those minutes, Wiggins is on the court with him. The players with the highest shares of those minutes are, in order, Porter, Bjelica, JTA, Payton, Lee, and Iguodala.

Now, we can argue how well most of these players have played so far this season in their roles and that's absolutely true – nobody can have that much success on the court without a well-performing support cast. But it doesn't change the fact that Curry is quite literally leading line-ups of minimum players – literally all of the above mentioned guys are on minimum contracts (!) – to a 121.0 ORTG (+23.7 net rating) to date. Curry has simply done an incredible job with this team, far beyond anyone's expectations.

[TwoStarz]

I mean, no. Record isn't basically the only thing that matters, but you'd think it was based on how most people are already crowning Steph a quarter way into the season. His overall numbers (PER, WS/48, on/off) aren't really that close to either of his two previous MVP campaigns (2015 and 16).

I think painted with a broad brush it looks quite similar to his 2015 MVP season overall. Numbers are slightly lower but still awfully close: 8.0 to 8.2 OBPM, .266 to .288 WS/48, 25.8 to 28.0 PER, +16.1 to +16.7 on-court net rating, +8.2 to +8.6 Off. RAPTOR). The overall all-in-one numbers are a bit down mainly due to boxscore estimates for defense and I'd guess virtually anyone who has watched Curry closely over the years would have him as a better defender this year compared to 2015. It's probably his best defensive season of his career thus far.

I'm not gonna get into a discussion downplaying Curry, he's been phenomenal. But the Warriors are a +5.3 net-rating with Curry off the court thus far. So I'm not really buying the "carry job" argument with him quite yet. Their bench lineups have been absolutely killing it. At the very least, it's something to monitor going forward.

I'd like to point out that ‘bench line-ups’ don't really exist anymore for the Warriors. Curry has been on the bench for 370 minutes this season. In those minutes, Poole was on the court 89% of the time, Wiggins 55% of the time, and Green 44% of the time. Those three plus Curry are our core players in the starting line-up (Looney is a token starter, minutes-wise).

So you'd expect the non-Curry line-ups to not suck when some combination of starters are on the court most of the time. Of course, we've also had great bench production, that's absolutely true. That does not diminish Curry's value, though. The fact that Curry-led line-ups have a +16.1 net rating is quite insane considering that it's right up there with the 2015-19 Warriors when Curry was on the court, and nobody had the current Warriors team anywhere close to those iterations in terms of talent prior to the season.

In the past, there was also a lot of collinearity with Draymond because Kerr played those two together most of the time. This year, Curry plays fewer minutes with Green than usually and the data suggest that Curry is clearly the driver behind this year's success so far – even though Green is having a great bounce-back season himself.

Green-led line-ups without Curry have a +7.5 net rating in 161 minutes. In 98% of those minutes, Poole is on the court with him. In 75% of those minutes, Wiggins is on the court with him. So that's a lot of minutes shared with the other core players.

Curry-led line-ups without Green have a +23.7 net rating in 254 minutes. In only 9% of those minutes, Poole is on the court with him. In only 18% of those minutes, Wiggins is on the court with him. The players with the highest shares of those minutes are, in order, Porter, Bjelica, JTA, Payton, Lee, and Iguodala.

Now, we can argue how well most of these players have played so far this season in their roles and that's absolutely true – nobody can have that much success on the court without a well-performing support cast. But it doesn't change the fact that Curry is quite literally leading line-ups of minimum players – literally all of the above mentioned guys are on minimum contracts (!) – to a 121.0 ORTG (+23.7 net rating) to date. Curry has simply done an incredible job with this team, far beyond anyone's expectations.

Great post!

I think a lot of people don't know that Curry is actually playing tons with the bench and he really is carrying a team of cast offs on the court for a good chunk of his minutes.

Like you said, he is carrying minimum players to insane production on the court, solely by just being on the court.

[Ron Swanson]

Net rating, none of that matters. What matters is, hes the best player, on the best team,.

Lol, cool. Better not hear anything about Steph being MVP then if the Suns end up with the 1-seed.

Now, we can argue how well most of these players have played so far this season in their roles and that's absolutely true – nobody can have that much success on the court without a well-performing support cast. But it doesn't change the fact that Curry is quite literally leading line-ups of minimum players – literally all of the above mentioned guys are on minimum contracts (!) – to a 121.0 ORTG (+23.7 net rating) to date. Curry has simply done an incredible job with this team, far beyond anyone's expectations.

Oh absolutely. I said the same thing during Giannis' MVP run in '20. I care way more about how your team performs when you're on the court because to me that's actual "impact". They're an insane +16 net-rating in Curry minutes and he shouldn't be penalized for the Warriors having great depth and coaching. My point was just that this isn't really a '16 Curry or '20 Giannis type run, where both those guys pretty much had sewn up the MVP by January, due to their dominance in both the individual metrics/stats as well as their teams running away with the best record in the league.

[The-Power]

My point was just that this isn't really a '16 Curry or '20 Giannis type run, where both those guys pretty much had sewn up the MVP by January

Oh yeah, the race is far from over, I didn't mean to insinuate otherwise. Giannis, Jokic and Curry are all clearly playing at an MVP level currently and some other players – including Durant – might also break into the conversation if their teams do well enough. I think Curry currently has the edge if people voted today due to GSW's record but the Bucks are likely to catch up and then Giannis will be right up there as a favorite to win MVP. I also hope Denver's record improves so people will properly appreciate what Jokic is doing.

[MindState]

Net rating, none of that matters. What matters is, hes the best player, on the best team,.

Lol, cool. Better not hear anything about Steph being MVP then if the Suns end up with the 1-seed.

Now, we can argue how well most of these players have played so far this season in their roles and that's absolutely true – nobody can have that much success on the court without a well-performing support cast. But it doesn't change the fact that Curry is quite literally leading line-ups of minimum players – literally all of the above mentioned guys are on minimum contracts (!) – to a 121.0 ORTG (+23.7 net rating) to date. Curry has simply done an incredible job with this team, far beyond anyone's expectations.

Oh absolutely. I said the same thing during Giannis' MVP run in '20. I care way more about how your team performs when you're on the court because to me that's actual "impact". They're an insane +16 net-rating in Curry minutes and he shouldn't be penalized for the Warriors having great depth and coaching. My point was just that this isn't really a '16 Curry or '20 Giannis type run, where both those guys pretty much had sewn up the MVP by January, due to their dominance in both the individual metrics/stats as well as their teams running away with the best record in the league.

Suns dont even have a top 10 player. Im not going to explain basic MVP criteria to you. You have 50+ years of it you can look up on google.

The MVP has always been about individual performance, combined with team record. Curry is top 2 in the league in both this season, and thats without factoring in the narrative aspect of him doing this without Klay.