RealGM

2021 Stats:
7.8ppg, 1.4 apg, 1.2 rpg on 42/43/80 splits

2022 Stats (Overall):
16.4 ppg, 3.8 apg, 2.7 rpg on 44/40/88 splits

2022 Stats without Lillard:
22.9 ppg, 6.1 apg, 2.9 rpg on 46/41/84 splits


If he averages exactly his current post-Lillard production, he will end up with ~19ppg/5apg/2.8rpg

He will have increased his PPG by 11.2, APG by 3.6, and RPG by 1.6 while becoming more efficient from the field.

Looking at recent historical MIP winners, none of them had jumps that big.

https://theanalyst.com/na/2021/10/nba-most-improved-and-breakout-player-candidates-in-2021-22/

Improvement comes in many forms, but this is a scoring award. Those winners from the past 22 seasons averaged 12.33 points in the season prior to being named MIP, then 19.97 in the year they won – an average increase of 7.64 points.

I'm asking this as a guy who picked him up at +8000 and +7000 odds and recently started digging into the history of the award, and taking into account Simons is now the #1 option on the Blazers, I think he's got a good shot at finishing around 20ppg.

I can't imagine voting for anyone other than Ja Morant for MIP

Cubbies2120 wrote:2021 Stats:
7.8ppg, 1.4 apg, 1.2 rpg on 42/43/80 splits

2022 Stats (Overall):
16.4 ppg, 3.8 apg, 2.7 rpg on 44/40/88 splits

2022 Stats without Lillard:
22.9 ppg, 6.1 apg, 2.9 rpg on 46/41/84 splits


If he averages exactly his current post-Lillard production, he will end up with ~19ppg/5apg/2.8rpg

He will have increased his PPG by 11.2, APG by 3.6, and RPG by 1.6 while becoming more efficient from the field.

Looking at recent historical MIP winners, none of them had jumps that big.

https://theanalyst.com/na/2021/10/nba-most-improved-and-breakout-player-candidates-in-2021-22/

Improvement comes in many forms, but this is a scoring award. Those winners from the past 22 seasons averaged 12.33 points in the season prior to being named MIP, then 19.97 in the year they won – an average increase of 7.64 points.

I'm asking this as a guy who picked him up at +8000 and +7000 odds and recently started digging into the history of the award, and taking into account Simons is now the #1 option on the Blazers, I think he's got a good shot at finishing around 20ppg.

Josh hart and winslow might want to explore their games in a way they havent really gotten to do, but im not sure that hurts Simons THAT much.personally i think he goes 20 and 5 on similar splits to the ones you have there. idk what that does for his averages, but if he does what i think, does that get him the award? probably.

what are the odds like for the other players right now? i think that sounds like a steal of a bet if portland dont shut him down, and the voters disregard the tanking.

He Filled it Up wrote:I can't imagine voting for anyone other than Ja Morant for MIP

If you're a legit MVP candidate, I'd imagine it disqualifies you from MIP? He's a top 5 MVP candidate by betting odds right now.

Jokic went from 19.9 --> 26.4, he won MVP, Ja went from 19.1 --> 26.4 and is a legitimate MVP candidate.

Lockdown504090 wrote:

Cubbies2120 wrote:2021 Stats:
7.8ppg, 1.4 apg, 1.2 rpg on 42/43/80 splits

2022 Stats (Overall):
16.4 ppg, 3.8 apg, 2.7 rpg on 44/40/88 splits

2022 Stats without Lillard:
22.9 ppg, 6.1 apg, 2.9 rpg on 46/41/84 splits


If he averages exactly his current post-Lillard production, he will end up with ~19ppg/5apg/2.8rpg

He will have increased his PPG by 11.2, APG by 3.6, and RPG by 1.6 while becoming more efficient from the field.

Looking at recent historical MIP winners, none of them had jumps that big.

https://theanalyst.com/na/2021/10/nba-most-improved-and-breakout-player-candidates-in-2021-22/

Improvement comes in many forms, but this is a scoring award. Those winners from the past 22 seasons averaged 12.33 points in the season prior to being named MIP, then 19.97 in the year they won – an average increase of 7.64 points.

I'm asking this as a guy who picked him up at +8000 and +7000 odds and recently started digging into the history of the award, and taking into account Simons is now the #1 option on the Blazers, I think he's got a good shot at finishing around 20ppg.

Josh hart and winslow might want to explore their games in a way they havent really gotten to do, but im not sure that hurts Simons THAT much.personally i think he goes 20 and 5 on similar splits to the ones you have there. idk what that does for his averages, but if he does what i think, does that get him the award? probably.

what are the odds like for the other players right now? i think that sounds like a steal of a bet if portland dont shut him down, and the voters disregard the tanking.

Odds for players ahead of him:
Ja Morant -475
Miles Bridges +700
Darius Garland +1100
Dejounte Murray +1800
Desmond Bane +4500
Jarrett Allen +6000

Ja morant already has this locked up.

Now for whether who “should” win it.. that may be a different discussion. But Ja has already won the award

Jurassic_Park wrote:Ja morant already has this locked up.

Now for whether who “should” win it.. that may be a different discussion. But Ja has already won the award

There's a full post all-star break to go, it'll be hard to deny Simons if he continues making that leap...at least based on precedent set in previous years.

Cubbies2120 wrote:

Jurassic_Park wrote:Ja morant already has this locked up.

Now for whether who “should” win it.. that may be a different discussion. But Ja has already won the award

There's a full post all-star break to go, it'll be hard to deny Simons if he continues making that leap...at least based on precedent set in previous years.

Lol I know you have a bet. But the odds are that high for a reason…. GL.

Jurassic_Park wrote:

Cubbies2120 wrote:

Jurassic_Park wrote:Ja morant already has this locked up.

Now for whether who “should” win it.. that may be a different discussion. But Ja has already won the award

There's a full post all-star break to go, it'll be hard to deny Simons if he continues making that leap...at least based on precedent set in previous years.

Lol I know you have a bet. But the odds are that high for a reason…. GL.

Embiid was +5000 to win MVP just over a month and a half ago, now he's +180 a lot can change in a couple months.

It may also be a big assumption that Simons will continue to put up the numbers that he's putting up though. And if Ja ends up being a top 3 MVP candidate, do the voters give him MIP? If so, shouldn't Jokic have gotten it last year as well?

Cubbies2120 wrote:

He Filled it Up wrote:I can't imagine voting for anyone other than Ja Morant for MIP

If you're a legit MVP candidate, I'd imagine it disqualifies you from MIP? He's a top 5 MVP candidate by betting odds right now.

Jokic went from 19.9 --> 26.4, he won MVP, Ja went from 19.1 --> 26.4 and is a legitimate MVP candidate.

Why would it disqualify you? If anything, it serves as proof of how much he improved his game.

Julius Randle finished 8th last year in MVP voting, and won MIP.

Gorilla Monsoon wrote:

Cubbies2120 wrote:

He Filled it Up wrote:I can't imagine voting for anyone other than Ja Morant for MIP

If you're a legit MVP candidate, I'd imagine it disqualifies you from MIP? He's a top 5 MVP candidate by betting odds right now.

Jokic went from 19.9 --> 26.4, he won MVP, Ja went from 19.1 --> 26.4 and is a legitimate MVP candidate.

Why would it disqualify you? If anything, it serves as proof of how much he improved his game.

Julius Randle finished 8th last year in MVP voting, and won MIP.

I don't think the argument is that it "should" disqualify you. It's just that historically going from good to great isn't something that is awarded for the MIP award. It's normally won by guys going from servicable/average (or below) to good/really good.

I think MIP is a particularly tough award and I tend to think on it a lot toward the end of the year.

I will say that Darius Garland is the name in my head. He went from a guy I wasn't even thinking about to an all-star, which is generally more impressive to me than going form a guy I wasn't even thinking about to not being an all-star Simons, or from being a "soon to be all-star" to an all-star like Ja.

Gorilla Monsoon wrote:

Cubbies2120 wrote:

He Filled it Up wrote:I can't imagine voting for anyone other than Ja Morant for MIP

If you're a legit MVP candidate, I'd imagine it disqualifies you from MIP? He's a top 5 MVP candidate by betting odds right now.

Jokic went from 19.9 --> 26.4, he won MVP, Ja went from 19.1 --> 26.4 and is a legitimate MVP candidate.

Why would it disqualify you? If anything, it serves as proof of how much he improved his game.

Julius Randle finished 8th last year in MVP voting, and won MIP.

Is there a single player in NBA history who finished top 5 in MVP voting and also won MIP?

Jokic made roughly the same statistical improvement from 2019-2020 to 2020-2021 than Ja did this year, yet he wasn't even considered for MIP.

Like, literally, Jokic got zero votes.

https://www.nba.com/news/julius-randle-named-2020-21-kia-nba-most-improved-player

Heres a spreadsheet comparing their statistical improvements from the year prior

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRxRQX8IKerOq6DS9CjuijS7m64_P_jYzmmRSKvR__2Ogi9Xpp6QT1RHnyeNYnsPwY9xb25F3W6eJ-b/pubhtml

Jokic, with his improvements, got ZERO votes. Morant with the similar improvements is a runaway for MIP?

Just dropped 16 points in 7 mins in 2nd quarter, on fire from 3

Simoms with 26 points in 27 minutes (10/18 FG, 6/12 3FG). And, he's doing it against a guy who is 1st team all defense.

?s=21

now imagine he will avg 30 for the rest of the year and got Portland to that 8th and upset everyone to win the NBA champion. that would be good story for Oscar

Great game by Simons, after having 2 points in the first 17 minutes of the game, he finished with 31/6

If he needed a roster change to show his improvements than maybe he isn't most Improved and just Most Usage Changed Player of the League.