RealGM

A loss to the Pacers coupled with New Orleans' drubbing of San Antonio has left Houston with faded hopes for a championship this season. We shall now cut them open and see what's inside...

Here is the data from last year's Post-Mortems:
Post-Mortem Results I: GM Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results II: Coaching Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results III: Performance Compared to Expectations
Post-Mortem Results IV: Rising/Treadmill/Waning

Team Name: Houston Rockets
Record at Time of Death: 17-53 (.243)
GM: Rafael Stone (2020- )
Coach: Stephen Silas (2020- )

Offensive Rating: 27th
Defensive Rating: 30th
Rebound %: 28th
Turnover %: 30th

GM: Change or keep?
Coach: Change or keep?
Relative to expectations, how did they fare this year?
Rising, falling, or treadmill?
If you were in charge, what would you do this offseason?

Notes:
Players under contract next year:
Eric Gordon ($20m)
Christian Wood ($14m)
Jalen Green ($9m)
David Nwaba ($5m)
Kevin Porter Jr. ($4m)
Alperen Sengun ($3m)
Usman Garuba ($2m)
Josh Christopher ($2m)
Garrison Matthews ($2m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Kenyon Martin Jr. ($2m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Daishen Nix ($2m)

Team Options:
Jae'Sean Tate ($2m)

Player Options:
John Wall ($47m)

Free Agents:
Dennis Schroder
Bruno Fernando

Dead Money:
D.J. Augustin ($333k)
Troy Williams ($122k)

Previous Post-Mortems:
30. Orlando Magic
29. Detroit Pistons

I have no idea what's happening with John Wall. He's most certainly going to opt in, because $47 million isn't something you walk away from. Will that result in another year of mutual exile?

The Rockets have a couple nice pieces in Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun. Green has had flashes of being that great scorer he was expected to be. They'll get one of the top picks and that should help them. They'll still be bad next year, but their young players are getting as many minutes as anyone. My big worry is whether guys like KPJ and Christian Wood are good for helping them develop the right way. Rocket fans would know better than I.

It's never good to have 5 lottery picks starting and fighting to "be that guy". The ideal situation would be Wall playing a backseat mentoring role like CP3 does with the Suns, and let Green and Sengun shine. I am sure Wall is capable of doing that, not sure he is willing to though.

The first move I'd like to see is KPJ gone as he is just not your ideal PG going forward. Then instead of landing some high flying rookie this summer, I hope them use the BKN/MIA pick to find a solid late 1st or even a 2nd rounder, like Draymond, Batum, Parsons who can be a complimentary piece around Green and Sengun. I don't see that in Tate.

ken6199 wrote:The first move I'd like to see is KPJ gone as he is just not your ideal PG going forward. Then instead of landing some high flying rookie this summer, I hope them use the BKN/MIA pick to find a solid late 1st or even a 2nd rounder, like Draymond, Batum, Parsons who can be a complimentary piece around Green and Sengun. I don't see that in Tate.

You've put a finger on what I've felt in my limited opportunities watching Houston. They seem to have a lot of talented players who want to be the man. I agree that it will help them having more guys who fulfill specific roles.

I have no idea why John Wall did not play a single game for this team. With 0 meaningful games left he likely doesn't play at all this season.

As far as performance, this was the first year that the Rockets had two young rookies and both have showcased the kind of potential you want to see. Sengun and Green are projecting upwards to be solid NBA players with star potential each.

Christian Wood had another solid season which showcased his growth. That contract was great when they signed him and continues to stay great.

Eric Gordon also showed a ton of value playing for the Rockets I would not be shocked if a team like Philly came knocking to scoop him up considering the former chemistry he already had with Harden and the great 3 point shooting he showcased this year. Likely he gets moved in the off season in a deal that involves Tobias Harris if Fertita can get over his grudge with Morey. Otherwise expect some 3-4 team trades happening where maybe Indiana gets involved, Orlando, OKC, Houston, Philly, etc.

I expect Schroder will sign a deal to stay in Houston next year. This team needs veterans. Schroder showcased in OKC that he is a very much capable 6MoTY player. He could easily come off the bench while the rookies get the starting minutes.

The real question for Houston is how high is the ceiling of their young core. Jalen Green and Sengun look good, maybe they blossom more and take additional steps. Guys like Tate and KPJ show promise in their own right but it remains to be seen if they would ever get close to the level that the PHX Suns young role players have achieved with Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson. It would be great for Houston to get that real nice complementary lottery player this draft.

Off Season moves would be to move Eric Gordon, possibly Christian Wood, find nice vets for their core, find their Pat Bev/Ricky Rubio basically. No clue how they could move John Wall, at all unless OKC wanted to bite for no reason. But the money Houston has could be used as filler in a multi team trade.

The Rockets should build around Green, Sengun and whoever they draft in the top 5-7.

So, keep GM, keep coach, get veterans who know how to win in the building, get rid of Wood and Porter.

They are a rising team but it will take some time. They were about as expected this year.

They have somthing with jalen and segun so build around them . Doesn’t seem they will get off John wall contract so . Don’t waste lottery pick to get off his deal .

Too early to ‘build around’ Sengun for sure, and Jalen Green in some ways too. They can’t pencil in Sengun as definitely one of their 3 key players going forward, he’s just a promising player who may or may not become a definite good starting quality guy within the next couple years. Green you can probably be more sure about that, but even then you’re not sure how foundational he’ll be and what you can for sure count on him to do at a very high level.

That all means they have to approach this season with a pretty open mind and stay open for many opportunities. Keep taking swings, keep playing around with roles, keep looking for some vets who can help shepherd the team in different directions, etc. Keep looking around for your direction rather than committing to one.

HotelVitale wrote:Too early to ‘build around’ Sengun for sure

This for sure.
Sengun is not ready to be the guy.
He's not even ready to start right now because Wood is a much better player.
I wish they would finish the season with Wood at 4 & Sengun at 5.
The season is over and they have time to experiment & Bruno has proven that he can be a capable backup C.
The current starting forwards are 6'3 and 6'4 (Gordon & Tate, shorter than the starting guards).
I would move KPJ to 3 and go after a true PG next season.
Young talent, huge cap space potentially in 2023 and the unprotected Nets picks have the future looking bright.

KPJ just seems like a losing player. I’m a big believer in Green long term, but he definitely needs a vet mentor. Wall clearly isn’t into the idea.

Wood has some of the same issues as KPJ, but he’s a better player. I’d move them both, but I’d want real value for Wood on that contract.

As for the rest… keep building. Two pieces and maybe more seem to be in place.

They've made a lot of mistake in terms of assets. The Harden trade was a bad start, should've found a way to get Allen from Brooklyn instead of another late first round pick. They should've traded Gordon and Wood to playoff teams looking for help. Allen could've been their center of the future.

Keep everyone and stay the course. Green and Sengun are very promising prospects.

HotelVitale wrote:Too early to ‘build around’ Sengun for sure, and Jalen Green in some ways too.

Disagree. you need to tell sengun is the cornerstone player to build around or its too late by the time he gets maxed. dump green for a top 5 pick next yr and get chet. what sengun is doing is not normal for a rookie he has floor of all star i see him reaching sabonis at least because he never hit a wall. his lack of production is due to lack of starting they need to get rid of all the high usage guys like wood. Max ceiling he can be joker lite i dont see his skillset inferior to him at the same age.

if you pick sengun, you need to get rid of green he plays no defense for someone like a mobley mold.

keep
keep
to expectation
treadmill

Rockets are in a good spot. They got some intriguing prospects in Green and Sengun and some players to flip for future assets in Gordon and Wood. Continue to let the young guns develop and try to get another top pick in next years draft.

ElectricMayhem wrote:

ken6199 wrote:The first move I'd like to see is KPJ gone as he is just not your ideal PG going forward. Then instead of landing some high flying rookie this summer, I hope them use the BKN/MIA pick to find a solid late 1st or even a 2nd rounder, like Draymond, Batum, Parsons who can be a complimentary piece around Green and Sengun. I don't see that in Tate.

You've put a finger on what I've felt in my limited opportunities watching Houston. They seem to have a lot of talented players who want to be the man. I agree that it will help them having more guys who fulfill specific roles.

This is fine for their goals right now, though, which are:

1. Retain your first round pick

2. Have that pick be as high as possible

Keep Gm / Coach ?
Did worse than expected
Waning team


Not a fan of what H-town did this year. It was in a position to be a respectable matchup with an exciting core led by a duo of veteran guards - and hungry young guys - including Wood, Theis and rookie Garuba in the post. Ended up being a doormat most nights with a few good wins and a few instances of dysfunction that made it to the court, and to the media's ears.

I guess HOU pretty much has to keep their GM and coach for optics, because both are new hires it would make sense to give one more year to see if this team is going anywhere. No trade-deadline moves that made sense at all, not moving Gordon for assets, not taking on salary for picks when they need more, and not getting rid of Kevin Porter Jr.

PLUS - not playing Wall is a doubled edged problem. Play - worse draft pick, don't? lose cred and games.

When watching the Rox play, major defensive issues all over the court (size/speed/tactics) and a lot of guys that are hustling out there, getting their cuts at the NBA, but need seasoning to be solid NBA defenders. First half of the year, the intended lineup of Wood/Theis backline was being destroyed so they had to play 4-out and Green struggled / injured. Garuba injured. All wing players sans Gordon are young streaky shooters (Maybe Garrison Mathews makes a home for HOU as a bench sharpshooter - he looked pretty good).

Jaysean Tate and Sengun are probably my favourite prospects to watch out for. Wood got a lot of PT and put up numbers, but nothing indicates he's a playoff closer or going to push your team past a .500 winning mark.

Gordon admirably stayed the course and made it count. You can't say that about everyone on the roster.

Next year will be predicated on their offseason acquisitions in the draft and Free Agency, because it would be pretty sad to trade for John Wall only to never play him in a single game over two years.

Trade Wood, Gordon and KPJ.
Add more veterans.

I haven't watched a ton of Rockets but every time i have watched, i absolutely hated Kevin Porter Jr. He's definitely not the right fit with Green, they need a proper point guard, not another gunner.

One of Banchero or Jabari Smith will be perfect for this team. Agree with some of the sentiment here that KPJ needs to go. Move KPJ and Wood for a point guard who can facilitate for the young guns and see if you have a star player or not.

Sort of played out of it, But a lot of dumb mistakes and worrying signs

It's like they need a vet Point guard for 10-15MPG. Christian Wood their best asset looks uninterested again