Post-Mortem: 2021-22 Oklahoma City Thunder

[ElectricMayhem]

The New Orleans Pelicans pulled away from Chicago tonight, pulling the championship aspirational rug out from underneath Oklahoma City. The Thunder will have to wait until next year.. We shall now cut them open and see what's inside...

Here is the data from last year's Post-Mortems:
Post-Mortem Results I: GM Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results II: Coaching Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results III: Performance Compared to Expectations
Post-Mortem Results IV: Rising/Treadmill/Waning

Team Name: Oklahoma City Thunder
Record at Time of Death: 21-52 (.288)
GM: Sam Presti (2007- )
Coach: Mark Daigneault (2020- )

Offensive Rating: 30th
Defensive Rating: 16th
Rebound %: 26th
Turnover %: 12th

GM: Change or keep?
Coach: Change or keep?
Relative to expectations, how did they fare this year?
Rising, falling, or treadmill?
If you were in charge, what would you do this offseason?

Notes:
Players under contract next year:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($30m)
Josh Giddey ($6m)
Darius Bazley ($4m)
Ty Jerome ($4m)
Aleksej Pokusevski ($3m)
Tre Mann ($3m)
Kenrich Williams ($2m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl ($2m)
Theo Maledon ($2m) (Partially GuaranteeD)
Luguentz Dort ($2m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Aaron Wiggins ($2m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Vit Krejci ($2m) (Partially Guaranteed)

Team Options:
Mike Muscala ($4m)
Ty Jerome ($4m)
Isaiah Roby ($2m)

Player Options:
Derrick Favors ($10m)

Free Agents:
Gabriel Deck
Olivier Sarr
Lindy Waters III

Dead Money:
Kemba Walker ($27m)
Kyle Singler ($1m)

2022 Draft Picks:
Own 1st
Clippers 1st (Unprotected)
Suns 1st (will convey)
Own 2nd

Previous Post-Mortems:
30. Orlando Magic
29. Detroit Pistons
28. Houston Rockets
27. Indiana Pacers
26. Oklahoma City Thunder

[falcolombardi]

-keep the GM
-keep the coach
-worse than expected
-rising team

i like daigneault as an X and O coach where he has felt good to me, is Up in the air how good he will be in other aspects of the job going forward

giddey looks good, Dort is progresing fantastically. shai stagnating a bit but not a big worry yet and he is still excellent

i also like tre mann but worry about poku lack of improvement

[ElectricMayhem]

The Thunder obviously have the draft capital to make a move whenever they want. I wonder if all those picks are devalued with other teams knowing they can't keep them all. People are starting to get impatient, wondering when they'll pivot from collection mode to spending mode. I think it's generally difficult to appease fans who see all those picks and expect it to turn into something glorious.

I don't see Poku developing into a player who contributes on a good team, but OKC does have some nice pieces like SGA, Giddey, Dort, and Mann. I think they'll start to turn the corner in about two years, but what they do with all their picks can move that backwards or forwards.

[John Murdoch]

Its crazy how Presti can go scorched earth yet Hinkie got crucified

[Upperclass]

Team can be the grizz next season if they want to be.. Very good coach and some hard to contain offensive pieces

[BloodNinja]

Its crazy how Presti can go scorched earth yet Hinkie got crucified

76ers had 3 seasons with fewer than 20 wins including a 10 win season. The Thunder are in their 2nd year of being bad and have recorded 22 and 21 wins (with a few games to spare). Not the same comparison.

[Clav]

Thunder have intentionally sacrificed wins these last two seasons for the future, and this season shows how poorly they have played as a whole. Big losses, noteworthy ones, including the NBA record for largest margin of defeat, and a lot of losing streaks have landed them in the bottom four of the league. I haven't been impressed by their play, really. Okay, some grit to come back from being down, and hustle by young players, but really they are outmatched skill-wise each night, that only goes so far.

I watch a lot of other teams play each night, but obviously, catch a handful of OKC games, and what can you say... pretty poor play overall, offensively unable to really play at an NBA level without SGA on the court. Defensively, surprising, but they use a squad, not an 8-man rotation.

However, some strides in the young guys, (Tre Mann looks nice, Poku...still a few years away from being MVP ) and they've hung their hat on being scrappy, as young teams should. Talent-wise, probably one of the worst teams in the NBA, but still found ways to scratch out a handful of wins when they had no real place being competitive. Other games were terrible blowouts where no one wants to watch real NBA players score at will vs G-League call ups.

If you want to pick out players and talk highly of them, go ahead, but there's the other side of the picture -- where OKC had no business even in the conversation of contender, and a lot of teams played down thinking it would be an easy win, only to let a scrappy team fight back.

With some tough defense, OKC held its own and surprised some squads. A locked-in team will beat the Thunder by 30 if they are playing on-point, or do like Memphis did, and win by 73.

But keep GM and coach, I think they're both operating well and Daigenault seems decent for now without pressure. Get draft picks or angle for FA and see what happens. I want OKC to forgo caution and compete next year, I'm not a fan of playing to lose.

[timO]

They are fcking the tank again in the last games of the RS.

So they pick again in the #5-7 range and be bad more years than necesary.

[Madhouse]

- Keep GM
- Keep coach
- about as expected
- not sure there exactly. They are definitely rising but I'm not too sure about the ceiling here. I think they need to score really big in the next 1,2 drafts.

I think stealth tank for the 23 draft is the best option for OKC but at the same time you need to build a winning culture to keep SGA. I think they really need to luck out in this draft and get the best player in the 22 draft to have a really bright future.

The backcourt has a lot of promise but other than that, basically everything else is missing.

Get Banchero/Holmgren/Smith for the frontcourt and that core suddenly looks a lot better though.

[Patches Perry]

Its crazy how Presti can go scorched earth yet Hinkie got crucified

76ers had 3 seasons with fewer than 20 wins including a 10 win season. The Thunder are in their 2nd year of being bad and have recorded 22 and 21 wins (with a few games to spare). Not the same comparison.

Part of why the Sixers were so criticized too is because if I recall correctly, they shut down their top picks for the entire season what, 2-3 times? I recall Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid missing their entire 1st seasons and not even entertaining the possibility of them returning until the following season. Then Fultz only played a few games before being shut down.

It may be the case that those injuries were very legitimate and required that amount of missed time, but it definitely created the perception that they were punting on 1st down. Teams like OKC are doing a diet version of that, where SGA, Dort and Giddey have all missed 20ish games at different times, but they still played 50+ so it's not as blatant.

[Patches Perry]

Keep the GM
Keep the Coach
As expected
Rising team (for lack of a better option)

Presti is still riding the wave of assets, but each year, those assets need to materialize into something. In tanking mode, he can't really afford to strike out one year. Giddey was a good pick for the draft spot they had, but one bad draft could put him on the block, and one really good draft could put OKC back in the playoffs as soon as next year. When you put so much stock into draft picks, there is a lot of pressure to make something out of them. As an OKC fan I hope he comes through.

[PlatinumState]

They have a lot of talent (thats young and inconsistent), feels like theyre tanking every year
Hopefully Poku makes big jump this summer and they draft someone that can contribute right away like Banchero

[cupcakesnake]

We're all waiting to see what they do next but still mostly in the realm of transactions, ping pong balls, and draft picks. Hopefully we'll have a clearer idea of the direction of this team after his offseason. They'll likely have 3-4 FRP and it seems unlikely they'll continue to roster everyone.

I watched maybe a dozen OKC games this year. Some of their big wins (those early season Lakers victories before we knew how bad LA was, both their victories against Denver), and a lot of bad losses. I was more interested in watching them when Shai was playing, but a big part of their "tank" is Shai missing games. He's missed 17 so far and no one would be surprised if they shut him down again. Not that they were world-beaters with him on the floor, but they were more like a cuspy bubble team than a total basement dweller. OKC was an okay watch when they had some combination of Shai/Dort/Giddey out there. Daigneault looks confident and kept the defensive respectable. I'm optimistic about him as a coach.

Shai was part of that early-season shooting slump that many perimeter stars struggled with (D'Lo, Tatum, Lillard etc.), but he's been back to his normal killer self for a while. Post all-star break he's at 63% TS with 54/39/80 shooting splits. But who else on this team is a keeper? Dort, JRE, and Bazley are all pretty fun and I hope they stick. But they all project as helpful role players not stars. Giddey is awesome but might be a complicated fit unless he develops a jump shot. A lot of their prospects did not encourage this year (Poku, Maledon). I like the look of Tre Mann sometimes.

This team could clearly win some games right now if they wanted to. In times when they played a shooting big (Mike Muscala) in lineups with their young guards, they looked like a real team. The Thunder's tank strategy is to limit how much those functional role players play. It's not like Mike Muscala is a rare piece.

As a fan I'm a bit impatient. As a Canadian fan, I'd like to see Shai playing on a real basketball team. But I think OKC's strategy is solid, I just hope they don't drag it out too much longer.

[cupcakesnake]

Its crazy how Presti can go scorched earth yet Hinkie got crucified

76ers had 3 seasons with fewer than 20 wins including a 10 win season. The Thunder are in their 2nd year of being bad and have recorded 22 and 21 wins (with a few games to spare). Not the same comparison.

Part of why the Sixers were so criticized too is because if I recall correctly, they shut down their top picks for the entire season what, 2-3 times? I recall Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid missing their entire 1st seasons and not even entertaining the possibility of them returning until the following season. Then Fultz only played a few games before being shut down.

It may be the case that those injuries were very legitimate and required that amount of missed time, but it definitely created the perception that they were punting on 1st down. Teams like OKC are doing a diet version of that, where SGA, Dort and Giddey have all missed 20ish games at different times, but they still played 50+ so it's not as blatant.

Exactly. Despite the broad strategy being similar, there's not big similarity in the results. I also think Presti pivoted into this as a matter of pseudo-necessity. The Westbrook/Paul George pairing was not working out, Paul George wanted out. Houston's owner (or Harden) forced Houston into making a Chris Paul trade at any cost. Presti saw a chance to extract maximum assets out of those situations and put the team in an unprecedented position of value. He's been operating from a point of advantage ever since and using all the opportunity that comes with that (being able to absorb dead cap and extract draft picks). OKC is 2 years removed from the playoffs and casual fans are already like enough is ENOUGH! In the big picture, OKC might end up completing a historically quick rebuild of this type.

By contrast, Phili was treadmill team built around prime Iguodala, over the hill Elton Brand, young Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner and Thaddeus Young. The team had been plucky in the playoffs but also felt like that they had reached a bit of a ceiling without being a contender. They tried trading Iggy for Andrew Bynum and it was a disaster that ruined the plucky playoff ceiling. Hinkie gets elevated, announces "the process" and trades Jrue Holiday in the summer of 2013. The team went 4 seasons fielding brutal rosters and only ever offering hope. But only reason it went on that long was Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons early injuries. Sixers ownership lost their stomach for losing and aborted Hinkie before he got a chance to show their results.

Also OKC has never fielded a roster like this.

If OKC has bad luck like that, Presti could easily lose popularity. But losing 3 full seasons of star rookies is unprecedented and extremely unlikely to occur.

[Dadouv47]

Keep the GM
Keep the Coach
Better than expected
Rising team

I like our team. SGA was terrible before ASG but playing like last season lately so it's good to see. Giddey is a good consolation price after our bad lottery luck (even if he won't reach Mobley or Cade level and i'm not sure he will be better than Kuminga). Mann was a very good pick at #18. Poku and Maledon draft in 2020 was terrible though so we still lack a lot of young talent.

We basically need a #1 option and that's the most difficult thing to do for any franchise so gotta have some draft luck and draft well to find that future superstar. Once we get him we have enough young players and assets to build a great team (SGA is fine as a #2 and Giddey should be a solid start as well). In the meantime I except us to slowly improve to a 10-12 seed in the West.

[falcolombardi]

They have a lot of talent (thats young and inconsistent), feels like theyre tanking every year
Hopefully Poku makes big jump this summer and they draft someone that can contribute right away like Banchero

we have tanked literally 2 seasons

2009 was a bad team with young players, it was not tanking per se

2010-2019 we made every playoofs in the west except for a 48 win season while injured (2015)

[PlatinumState]

They have a lot of talent (thats young and inconsistent), feels like theyre tanking every year
Hopefully Poku makes big jump this summer and they draft someone that can contribute right away like Banchero

we have tanked literally 2 seasons

2009 was a bad team with young players, it was not tanking per se

2010-2019 we made every playoofs in the west except for a 48 win season while injured (2015)

Youre right, somehow it feels like youve been tanking since westbrook left to me
I wish OKC well

[falcolombardi]

They have a lot of talent (thats young and inconsistent), feels like theyre tanking every year
Hopefully Poku makes big jump this summer and they draft someone that can contribute right away like Banchero

we have tanked literally 2 seasons

2009 was a bad team with young players, it was not tanking per se

2010-2019 we made every playoofs in the west except for a 48 win season while injured (2015)

Youre right, somehow it feels like youve been tanking since westbrook left to me
I wish OKC well

thanks bro, good luck in the playoffs to warriors too!

[giberish]

IMO they need to transition out of hard tank mode and into at least partly trying. It's been 'only' 2 years, but 2 years is a pretty long time. Especially with SGA already in place and with enough experience to be on a winning team.

Not major mortage the future moves, but at least using their cap space to get some quality rotation players rather then just selling it for even more late 1sts. Try for .500 with upside going forward rather then another non-competitive year.

[macNcheese3]

Keep the GM - he’s made some good moves
Keep the Coach - young coach and has done a good job

Have played better than expected looking at their roster. They should continue to add assets and retool as needed.