Post-Mortem: 2021-22 Washington Wizards

[ElectricMayhem]

Tonight, the Atlanta Hawks beat three teams in one fell swoop. They decimated Cleveland on the court and also beat the Washington Wizards' and New York Knicks' playoff hopes to a bloody pulp. When, if ever, will Washington become Ishington? We shall now cut them open and see what's inside...

Here is the data from last year's Post-Mortems:
Post-Mortem Results I: GM Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results II: Coaching Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results III: Performance Compared to Expectations
Post-Mortem Results IV: Rising/Treadmill/Waning

Team Name: Washington Wizards
Record at Time of Death: 33-43 (.434)
GM: Tommy Sheppard (2019- )
Coach: Wes Unseld Jr. (2021- )

Offensive Rating: 21st
Defensive Rating: 25th
Rebound %: 19th
Turnover %: 11th

GM: Change or keep?
Coach: Change or keep?
Relative to expectations, how did they fare this year?
Rising, falling, or treadmill?
If you were in charge, what would you do this offseason?

Notes:
Players under contract next year:
Kristaps Porzingis ($34m)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($14m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Kyle Kuzma ($13m)
Rui Hachimura ($6m)
Deni Avdija ($5m)
Ish Smith ($5m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Corey Kispert ($4m)
Daniel Gafford ($2m)
Vernon Carey Jr. ($2m)
Isaiah Todd ($2m)

Team Options:

Player Options:
Bradley Beal ($37m)

Free Agents:
Thomas Bryant
Raul Neto
Anthony Gill
Tomas Satoransky
Jordan Schakel
Cassius Winston

Dead Money:

Previous Post-Mortems:
30. Orlando Magic
29. Detroit Pistons
28. Houston Rockets
27. Indiana Pacers
26. Oklahoma City Thunder
25. Washington Wizards
24. New York Knicks

[FAH1223]

Tommy Sheppard got an extension after the 10-3 start. I wonder what things would look like if Ted Leonsis waited.

Wes Unseld Jr was a rookie HC. I give him a C grade as the first month of the season showed me that he prepares well and has shown the ability to make adjustments. Unfortunately as the season went on, roles weren’t clearly established for certain guys and the defense slipped big time as the lack of talent and capable personnel was evident. Wes also is attempting to bring the offensive system from Denver here. Porzingis has played well at the high and low post. His facilitating has been a nice sight to see.

A starting level PG like Tyus Jones is a huge need. A defender at SF is also a big need.

Hachimura, Avdija and Kispert have big summers in front of them. Rui has improved shooting. He needs a similar leap on his team defense, rebounding and ability to playmake.

I don’t see Beal leaving. He will enjoy being courted but it’s clear his heart and wallet are here in DC.

Satoransky and Gill are bench guys I’d love to retain. I wouldn’t mind Ish as my 4th or 5th guard. But the guard and wing spots need infusion of talent this offseason.

[nate33]

Sheppard has done a very good job under the constraints he is dealing with. Leonsis won't let him trade Beal so he is being forced to build around him. In 2 years, he turned John "Worst Contract In The League" Wall into Porzingis, Kuzma and KCP, all while resisting the temptation to trade away a pick or young player for a veteran who wouldn't be good enough to lift the Wizards into contention anyhow.

The Wizards have a decent foundation of young role players. Hachimura, Gafford and Kispert just turned 23, and Avdija just turned 21. All are rotation caliber players with the potential to be quality full time starters with just a little bit more improvement. But none of them have star potential except perhaps Avdija. The Wizards also have veterans Porzingis, KCP, and Kuzma under contract next season. Isaiah Todd and Vernon Carey Jr. are also under contract but don't factor into the future. Beal has a player option. Ish Smith is non-guaranteed.

Beal had an awful season and looks to have peaked. It's a terrible situation because he is coddled like an All-NBA superstar by management and Beal believes the hype. They allow him to get away with lazy defense and not getting back on D, and it generally makes it impossible for the coach to instill discipline for the younger players. One would hope that these downsides were offset by Beal delivering in iso situations in the clutch, but he has never been able to do that either. It's the worst of both worlds. Beal is still a very good player, but he needs a change of scenery where he isn't coddled as a superstar and is allowed to be the 2nd best player behind a clear #1 option. Unfortunately, it's not going to happen. Beal is staying.

Porzingis has been terrific since arriving here, averaging 28 points, 11 boards, 4 assists and 2 blocks per 36 minutes on a TS% of 60%. He is living at the FT line, averaging 9.6 FTA's per 36. If he can keep playing like this going forward, he's a fine 2nd option star. But as we all know, the issue with Porzingis is health.

The team needs a starting PG. If they get one, they are probably good enough to compete for the play in spot in upcoming years, but they really have no hope of truly contending in the Beal era unless they find a legit superstar in the draft (picking late lottery). They have the luxtax room to spend the full MLE on a guy like Tyus Jones. And they have enough depth at forward to trade Kuzma for a PG. I expect they will acquire a veteran PG by free agency or trade, and then draft a guard or wing when they pick at #11 or so.

[Statlanta]

OP you called the Wizards the Thunder in your post.

[ElectricMayhem]

OP you called the Wizards the Thunder in your post.

Noted and edited. Thank you!

[Clav]

Gotta find a way to balance the offense for the Wiz. Keep the GM and Coach, promising signs after jettisoning Westbrook for solid players that made an impact, even if Harrell was traded. The get of Porzingis helps their trajectory as does getting rid of Bertans, for real, who was not the greatest fit here...

So the Wiz for me did as expected, some nice wins and when Beal was playing, this team was a lot more dangerous, but him being out, put this team in a hard spot. Beal was in the conversation for Scoring Title last year and this year was not in the media storylines much at all except for the trade rumours or his injury, all peripheral stuff, so you hope to see a 1-2 punch of KP and Beal {plus} a solid growth of the younger guys.

If Wash should replace some of the journeymen they have hung onto for a few years now (Neto, Smith, Bryant, Satoransky again) with other players and bring a new life into the franchise. I like Thomas Bryant, but Gafford and Zinger give you everything you need there. A two-way contract player can replace what a 3rd string bench big brings for most of the season. Rising team if development of the guys like Advija, Hachimura, and Gafford goes well!

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Sheppard has done a very good job under the constraints he is dealing with. Leonsis won't let him trade Beal so he is being forced to build around him. In 2 years, he turned John Worst Contract In The League Wall into Porzingis, Kuzma and KCP, all while resisting the temptation to trade away a pick or young player for a veteran who wouldn't be good enough to lift the Wizards into contention anyhow.

The Wizards have a decent foundation of young role players. Hachimura, Gafford and Kispert just turned 23, and Avdija just turned 21. All are rotation caliber players with the potential to be quality full time starters with just a little bit more improvement. But none of them have star potential except perhaps Avdija. The Wizards also have veterans Porzingis, KCP, and Kuzma under contract next season. Isaiah Todd and Vernon Carey Jr. are also under contract but don't factor into the future. Beal has a player option. Ish Smith is non-guaranteed.

Beal had an awful season and looks to have peaked. It's a terrible situation because he is coddled like an All-NBA superstar by management and Beal believes the hype. They allow him to get away with lazy defense and not getting back on D, and it generally makes it impossible for the coach to instill discipline for the younger players. One would hope that these downsides were offset by Beal delivering in iso situations in the clutch, but he has never been able to do that either. It's the worst of both worlds. Beal is still a very good player, but he needs a change of scenery where he isn't coddled as a superstar and is allowed to be the 2nd best player behind a clear #1 option. Unfortunately, it's not going to happen. Beal is staying.

Porzingis has been terrific since arriving here, averaging 28 points, 11 boards, 4 assists and 2 blocks per 36 minutes on a TS% of 60%. He is living at the FT line, averaging 9.6 FTA's per 36. If he can keep playing like this going forward, he's a fine 2nd option star. But as we all know, the issue with Porzingis is health.

The team needs a starting PG. If they get one, they are probably good enough to compete for the play in spot in upcoming years, but they really have no hope of truly contending in the Beal era unless they find a legit superstar in the draft (picking late lottery). They have the luxtax room to spend the full MLE on a guy like Tyus Jones. And they have enough depth at forward to trade Kuzma for a PG. I expect they will acquire a veteran PG by free agency or trade, and then draft a guard or wing when they pick at #11 or so.

Basically this. Incompetent ownership has handcuffed any one else deemed to be "in charge" in making a serious basketball decisions, most glaringly apparent in how it has approached Beal's impending free agency despite Beal's lack of serious option (at this point in time). Only hope is some combination of massive growth from at least 2 of the 4 young guys (Hachimura, Avidja, Gafford, and Kispert), getting real lucky in the draft lottery, and Beal resurrecting his career to being and at least a fringe All-NBA caliber player because he was bad this past season. Unfortunately the franchise looks intent on paying him like it never happened.

[kenwood3333]

Trade Beal for a promising young player and rebuild.

[falcolombardi]

i was high on hachinura when he was in the ncaa but i have not followed wizards much

how is he looking these days? what do you guys think is his potential?

[queridiculo]

Gotta find a way to balance the offense for the Wiz. Keep the GM and Coach, promising signs after jettisoning Westbrook for solid players that made an impact, even if Harrell was traded. The get of Porzingis helps their trajectory as does getting rid of Bertans, for real, who was not the greatest fit here...

So the Wiz for me did as expected, some nice wins and when Beal was playing, this team was a lot more dangerous, but him being out, put this team in a hard spot. Beal was in the conversation for Scoring Title last year and this year was not in the media storylines much at all except for the trade rumours or his injury, all peripheral stuff, so you hope to see a 1-2 punch of KP and Beal {plus} a solid growth of the younger guys.

If Wash should replace some of the journeymen they have hung onto for a few years now (Neto, Smith, Bryant, Satoransky again) with other players and bring a new life into the franchise. I like Thomas Bryant, but Gafford and Zinger give you everything you need there. A two-way contract player can replace what a 3rd string bench big brings for most of the season. Rising team if development of the guys like Advija, Hachimura, and Gafford goes well!

Not the kind of levelheaded analysis I expect to read about the Wizards on the general board.

Agreed on Neto, Bryant and to an extent Smith, but Satoransky has shown something after a forgettable season for him prior to the trade.

He's somebody I'd have a hard look at bringing back.

I don't know if I'd go as far as calling Washington a team on the rise.

Between the Beal decision, Porzingis health and the development of some of the young players there's just too many variables, but if things break right for this franchise they could very well be a story as early as next year.

Sheppard's done a tremendous job as the GM considering what he had to work with when he started and maybe this is the year he gets lucky in the lottery.

[Green Backpack]

I remember that hot start and it was a fairly easy prediction to know the Wizards would eventually cool off, but they really fell off a cliff. I'd assume here you would want Beal to commit to next season to pair up with KP and see what happens. Beal missing half this season obviously didn't help.

[ElectricMayhem]

With teams like New York, Washington, and Sacramento, it's hard to say what should be done at the front office and coaching levels because the true rot is at the ownership level. It's hard to see anything changes until they get a more committed ownership group in. Trust me, as a Lions fan, I know (though extremely happy with Sheila Ford Hamp now, thanks for asking).

Leonsis seems like a guy big on loyalty without accountability. Ernie Grunfeld was GM for WAY too long. Scott Brooks was coach for way too long. They've been swimming in no-man's land with Beal for too long. Until Leonsis is gone, I don't see anything more than the marginal success they've achieved in the past.

Wizards fans seem content with Sheppard, so I guess keep him around. My personal feeling is that they aren't a team that gets a lot of value out of their draft picks. I haven't watched Kispert. Are Washington fans high on him? I wasn't big on Hachimura, but he's been more impressive since he came back. I am impressed that they were able to unload Wall's contract, then unload Westbrook for smaller digestible contracts of average players. That's a huge win. I guess they'll run it back next year and just hope that Beal and Porzingis' games complement each other enough to become a playoff team. I mean, obviously, if they want to become a championship team, all they need to do is start Cassius Winston, but that would be unfair to the rest of the league.

[Godymas]

sad i missed the thread and poll when it dropped.

Wiz will likely end the season with 36 wins because no way New York plays a halfway serious line-up on Friday.

Considering that Brad Beal became injured..early in 2022. I would say this season was a success. Going into the season there were low expectations for the roster and then we pulled out a few nice wins but anyone who watched the Wiz knew this was not a case of the Wiz being an elite team but rather just an overall low level of play in those early games. Then there was a huge loss streak, for some reason Dinwiddie decided to go from being really good to awful. From the outside looking in any team with Montrezl Harrell as the best offensive and defensive player cannot seriously be THAT good and it became the case very quickly. Trez was probably the guy that was looked at as "playing for his next contract". He took a HUGE pay cut to play on the Lakers and ring chase. It didn't work out so now he is just looking to get paid and live back home in NC. Good for Trez but past a point it became obvious that he wasn't there for the long term growth of the team.

It's hilarious btw that the Lakers will end the season with less games won than the Wiz. In that case both teams got worse because of the trade but for the Wiz it doesn't feel like a total L because Kuzma and KCP still give nice production and Beal was never able to integrate and fully unlock. Right before he went down with injury it was clear Beal was getting back into form so that's unfortunate. Maybe with Beal healthy the team makes a nice late season push for the play-in but I'm happier with being out because this gave crucial time to the young talent the Wiz have to get back into rhythm. Speaking of them

Kispert - Great pick-up, he was slow to start but showed a ton of promise and hustle making defensive plays in his limited minutes. With Beal out he got a much bigger role and while the efficiency started to improve. Expect next season he'll be a solid 37-38% 3 point shooter on 5 attempts a game.

Deni - At the start of the season he was playing All NBA defense, one particularly memorable game was a win vs Milwaukee where Deni locked out Giannis multiple times at the end. He shows a ton of promise and hustle and it's great to see that he's clearly going to be an important defensive contributor moving forward. The offensive side of the ball was frustrating. He could be easily above average if he learned to make all the open looks and free finishes he gets at the rim on a consistent basis. A lot of people say it's confidence and I agree. He's clearly able to get there he just needs to be able to finish consistently and suddenly you've got a really good wing player.

Rui - I'll admit I didn't watch as much of Rui this season because by the time he came back the Wiz really started to slow down. He came back and it really wasn't that good but he seems to have gotten back in the rhythm offensively with good efficency and scoring. He still isn't a good defender but expect next season he will take a bigger jump and get a bigger offensive role on the team. Hopefully he takes the off-season seriously and comes back with something to prove. One thing to say is that the FO was fine with Rui taking personal time off which means that we are invested in Rui's growth as a key member of this team's future which is also good.

Outside of that Kuzma and KCP were good pickups and played crucial minutes and got buckets when needed. Kuzma was incredibly impressive as basically the most clutch player on the team. I hope Kuzma stays for a while on this team as he is clearly someone that can have a big role and even be a star moving forward.

Now for the big one, Brad Beal. I truly expect Beal to sign the supermax if offered and I'm willing to believe that DC will pull together at least 2 50 win seasons with Beal as the #1 but it's a matter of letting the talent develop and getting the right pieces. Otherwise I think there are 2 teams that Beal would leave for. The first would be obviously Boston. Beal and Tatum are boys that go insanely far back. I'm sure that Beal dreams of being able to win a ring with Tatum and Tatum would welcome it too. I'd expect Boston the refuse to let Jaylen Brown go unless Tatum comes to the FO and says "do it or I'm out" and we'd happily take Jaylen Brown to pair with Porzingis in DC as a really exciting future for this team. Obviously Boston wants to keep Brown with Tatum and Beal. Ultimately I don't think DC pulls the trigger unless Jaylen Brown is included. The other person that I believe Beal would want to win with would be Damian Lillard as they have a very similar mentality. Giannis himself stated that if he left Milwaukee it would be to play with Dame. Beal was at Dame's wedding, they are friends off the court too. With CJ gone Dame needs a new running mate in the back-court and him and Beal would be absolutely deadly offensively. What would Portland send in return? Well 100% we take back Anfernee Simons who had a very under the radar year proving to be a 20+ PPG scorer in the league. Probably take on Eric Bledsoe's expiring as well. There may be more to go with it but these are the two teams to watch. I guess Philadelphia could be tossed in as the third in which case we probably take on Tobias Harris which would be whatever. I wouldn't like it just because Tobias would take away minutes from Deni but that might be another position where Beal leaves. Philly would have to send over young talent to pair with Tobias of course since DC doesn't want that contract without incentives. That or picks.

So to summarize, the young talent projects a bright future and hopefully a good lottery selection helps that. Beal is expected to stay but may be willing to join teams to play with people he wants to play with but otherwise the future looks to be a Brad Beal future as he at the very least will cement a legacy with Washington and get 3 retired here even if he never ends up winning. The WB trade is a lowkey win. Porzingis is going to be a great return as long as he stays healthy. The depth on this team is underrated, Daniel Gafford, Satoransky, Ish Smith, all solid contributors. For the love of god I pray that Raul Neto gets 5 mpg next season I cannot bear to watch 20 minutes of him doing absurd stuff on the floor trying to hang with the big guys.

[Ruma85]

There's rumors that the wizards are looking to trade the 10th pick, i wonder what kind of deal they could get.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/267336/Wizards-Weighing-Possible-Trade-Options-For-No-10-Pick

[Ray Donovan]

Sign & trade Beal for Wiggins, Payton jr & Moody from G St

[whatisacenter]

Sign & trade Beal for Wiggins, Payton jr & Moody from G St

I never wanted Beale on GS and wouldn't trade Wiggins for him straight up. Wiggins defensively fits so well on this GS team.

[Ray Donovan]

Or take the Power Forward that starts w/a K from the G League along w/Wiggins & Moody & Payton Jr stays w/Warriors, along w/Beal... thoughts .

[Ray Donovan]

Or take the Power Forward that starts w/a K from the G League along w/Wiggins & Moody & Payton Jr stays w/Warriors, along w/Beal... thoughts .

[giberish]

Or take the Power Forward that starts w/a K from the G League along w/Wiggins & Moody & Payton Jr stays w/Warriors, along w/Beal... thoughts .

Totally DOA for two reasons.

First, it just doesn't work under the CBA. Adding Beal in a S&T deal would hard cap the Warriors and they're now way over the apron.

Second, adding another marginal defensive guard at the expense of good defensive forward(s) leaves GS wildly unbalanced.