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Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 12:05 am
by Ursusamericanus
Looking at the NBA's leading individual BPG season-by-season, there's a clear downtrend since 84-85 (MJ's rookie year).
Visually:
Data source:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/blk_per_g_yearly.htmlSo what happened? Is it because more fouls are called nowadays? Or are players better with shot selection? More three point shooting?
Or are there just fewer good shotblockers around?
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 12:07 am
by KyRo23
More 3pt shooting.
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 12:08 am
by Wolfgang630
Because the game is more perimeter oriented
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 12:18 am
by Sofia
I imagine the average distance from hoop per shot attempt each year is an inverted version of that graphic.
There’s also a lot of noise in the stat the OP posted,
as it is effectively only measuring 37 players
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 12:19 am
by Ursusamericanus
Sofia wrote:I imagine the average distance from hoop per shot attempt each year is an inverted version of that graphic
Hm yeah might be good to see that, too.
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 12:21 am
by meekrab
Blocked shots are not actually very valuable, aside from the emotional impact. Typically the shooting team just gets the ball back and tries again.
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 12:22 am
by Sofia
Hyaena wrote:Sofia wrote:I imagine the average distance from hoop per shot attempt each year is an inverted version of that graphic
Hm yeah might be good to see that, too.
Oops, I was too slow on my edit.
It would be interesting to see blocks as a per team league average, rather than measuring the individual outlier.
I guess there will be a slight decline until recent years but generally much flatter
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 12:25 am
by Mr Puddles
1. More switching: Centers have to be able to switch on perimeter players all the time now which draws them away from the basket. No longer can you just have a lumbering big under the basket waiting for guys to enter the paint and swat a ball or two away.
2. Advanced statistics: Advanced stats have shed a light on how players can be premier shot blockers but poor defenders. It's similar to how a high amount of steals doesn't necessarily equate good defense, if a defender is gambling too much. A lot of times it's much better defense to just contest a shot rather than jumping around hunting for shot blocks.
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 12:30 am
by Phreak50
meekrab wrote:Blocked shots are not actually very valuable, aside from the emotional impact. Typically the shooting team just gets the ball back and tries again.
Not at all.
It ticks the shot clock down either way, it also mentally puts off shooters knowing a good shot blocker is deterring them from the easiest shot on the court.
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 12:33 am
by Swish1906
A lot of guys prefer to run away from a potential poster instead of challenging it because of Twitter
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 12:36 am
by Ursusamericanus
Sofia wrote:Hyaena wrote:Sofia wrote:I imagine the average distance from hoop per shot attempt each year is an inverted version of that graphic
Hm yeah might be good to see that, too.
Oops, I was too slow on my edit.
It would be interesting to see blocks as a per team league average, rather than measuring the individual outlier.
I guess there will be a slight decline until recent years but generally much flatter
Good point - here it is using the same y-axis scale:
So a downward trend, but much flatter as you predicted.
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 12:36 am
by Ursusamericanus
Phreak50 wrote:meekrab wrote:Blocked shots are not actually very valuable, aside from the emotional impact. Typically the shooting team just gets the ball back and tries again.
Not at all.
It ticks the shot clock down either way, it also mentally puts off shooters knowing a good shot blocker is deterring them from the easiest shot on the court.
Agreed - it leads to a lot of shots being altered, too.
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 12:40 am
by Sofia
Hyaena wrote:Sofia wrote:Hyaena wrote:
Hm yeah might be good to see that, too.
Oops, I was too slow on my edit.
It would be interesting to see blocks as a per team league average, rather than measuring the individual outlier.
I guess there will be a slight decline until recent years but generally much flatter
Good point - here it is using the same y-axis scale:
So a downward trend, but much flatter as you predicted.
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 1:03 am
by YogurtProducer
Partially I think teams realize chasing blocks isn’t necessarily good defence.
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 1:10 am
by Lalouie
everyone's looking for the soft unguarded 3
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 1:13 am
by Egg Nog
I would love to see 3fga overlaid on top of that graph.
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 1:16 am
by Tor_Raps
Seems very straight forward and obvious no? 3 point spamming and less real centers in the NBA.
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 1:19 am
by pacers33
because Roy Hibbert made someone upset
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 1:25 am
by maxpower8888
Hyaena wrote:Sofia wrote:Hyaena wrote:
Hm yeah might be good to see that, too.
Oops, I was too slow on my edit.
It would be interesting to see blocks as a per team league average, rather than measuring the individual outlier.
I guess there will be a slight decline until recent years but generally much flatter
Good point - here it is using the same y-axis scale:
So a downward trend, but much flatter as you predicted.
I'm a little confused by the second chart. Is it saying that the BPG mean of all of the players in the league is that high? Because nobody is averaging close to those.
Re: Why has shotblocking declined so much?
Posted: Sun Apr 3, 2022 2:02 am
by MrBigShot
More perimeter shots, teams going smaller, bigs stepping out into the perimeter on switches