Do Mavs stand a chance against Suns?

[spanishninja]

Literally never seen a fan base that’s won squat as cocky as the Suns.

who is being cocky? virtually nobody on this topic is saying easy win for the Suns.

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[cupcakesnake]

Dallas has no size to deal with Ayton,

Am I wrong to expect Maxi to limit Ayton significantly when they're on the floor together? How is Maxi's defense against cutters/offensive rebounders?

[Johnny Firpo]

Dallas has no size to deal with Ayton,

Am I wrong to expect Maxi to limit Ayton significantly when they're on the floor together? How is Maxi's defense against cutters/offensive rebounders?

Probably, yeah. Maxi works best as a help defender, so I don't expect him to be efficient one on one, although he is decent against cutters and usually boxes out.

[Gimli]

Dallas has no size to deal with Ayton,

Am I wrong to expect Maxi to limit Ayton significantly when they're on the floor together? How is Maxi's defense against cutters/offensive rebounders?

I don't think Maxi is a particularly good picknroll defender... He might actually be a rather poor one. The Mavs play a lot of switching and a lot of help defense (*so he can be hidden like Doncic, in case he isn't a good picknroll defender), so I'm not sure. And last year their defense was non existent anyway, so I'm not sure if he can be judged based on last season.

I think his main strength is giving a player the jumpshoot instead of letting him in the paint. So, imagine that Butler gets a screen and tries to get rid of DFS and get's Maxi on him. It might seem a better matchup for Butler, but he actually won't be able to get in the paint and Maxi will stay in front of him the whole time and at the end Butler would just have to make a jumper over him. Maybe Maxi will come handy against Booker and CP3, because letting people shoot over him is his bread and butter, imo. Unless you've got Kawhi, Kawhi just abused him with his jumpers...

I think Maxi can do a good job on Ayton, if it's 1 vs 1 in the midrange and Ayton wants to shoot over him. If it's picknroll, Maxi alone can't really do anything and in the low post, Maxi will be solid enough to stay in front of Ayton, but Ayton can bully him to the basket very easily, if he wants. And then it's up to Ayton, if he hits his jumphook.

With regards to offensive rebounding, he will box out cutters and so on, but apart from that, he won't help you win the rebounding war. The Mavs were losing the rebounds pretty heavily until Doncic came back. I'm not sure if he can even box out Ayton, because Ayton will just keep pushing him to the basket. He couldn't really stop Gobert.

Anyway, the Mavs play on defense as a team quite a lot. So it's not gonna be just Maxi vs Ayton, even if Maxi is guarding Ayton.

I think the Mavs will use the same strategy as with the Jazz. Prevent 3 pointers and prevent low post play from Ayton, everything else is fine.

[One Last Shot]

Having the best player in the series didn't prevent the Nuggets from getting swept by the Suns last year. And Jokic not only took Kawhi and PG to 7 games, but he even beat them!

The difference is Luka has a pretty good team around him, Jokic was on a team starting Campazzo and Austin Rivers when he faced the Suns.

Yeah having the best player won’t mean too much when the team outside of that guy is at a comical disadvantage in talent, but that’s not the case here, Dallas has some real firepower next to Luka.

I wouldn't call it a comical disadvantage. The Nuggets only lost 4 more games than the Mavs (who lost 12 more games than the Suns, for perspective). And last year's Nuggets were better, with a healthy MPJ, and the Suns were worse. All this is saying that this series should be lopsided but that's why you play the games I guess.

How did the Nuggets were better when they don't have Jamal Murray? MPJ wasn't healthy either.


www.sportskeeda.com/amp/basketball/news-is-michael-porter-jr-playing-tonight-phoenix-suns-game-3-2021-nba-playoffs-round-2


The Nuggets team that Suns sweep last year wasn't the same Nuggets team who beat Clippers that needed 7 games to eliminate Doncic, they also don't have Grant, Harris etc. in that Nuggets squad they have Campazzo and Austin Rivers. You keep repeating that in this thread and it's wrong. Maybe let's wait some games to be played first before declaring the Suns winner before Game 1. Booker was hurt this year and if Mavs somehow find a way to defend properly against Suns, we can have a great series that any basketball fans will enjoy.

[spanishninja]

Dallas has no size to deal with Ayton,

Am I wrong to expect Maxi to limit Ayton significantly when they're on the floor together? How is Maxi's defense against cutters/offensive rebounders?

I don't think Maxi is a particularly good picknroll defender... He might actually be a rather poor one. The Mavs play a lot of switching and a lot of help defense (*so he can be hidden like Doncic, in case he isn't a good picknroll defender), so I'm not sure. And last year their defense was non existent anyway, so I'm not sure if he can be judged based on last season.

I think his main strength is giving a player the jumpshoot instead of letting him in the paint. So, imagine that Butler gets a screen and tries to get rid of DFS and get's Maxi on him. It might seem a better matchup for Butler, but he actually won't be able to get in the paint and Maxi will stay in front of him the whole time and at the end Butler would just have to make a jumper over him. Maybe Maxi will come handy against Booker and CP3, because letting people shoot over him is his bread and butter, imo. Unless you've got Kawhi, Kawhi just abused him with his jumpers...

I think Maxi can do a good job on Ayton, if it's 1 vs 1 in the midrange and Ayton wants to shoot over him. If it's picknroll, Maxi alone can't really do anything and in the low post, Maxi will be solid enough to stay in front of Ayton, but Ayton can bully him to the basket very easily, if he wants. And then it's up to Ayton, if he hits his jumphook.

With regards to offensive rebounding, he will box out cutters and so on, but apart from that, he won't help you win the rebounding war. The Mavs were losing the rebounds pretty heavily until Doncic came back. I'm not sure if he can even box out Ayton, because Ayton will just keep pushing him to the basket. He couldn't really stop Gobert.

Anyway, the Mavs play on defense as a team quite a lot. So it's not gonna be just Maxi vs Ayton, even if Maxi is guarding Ayton.

I think the Mavs will use the same strategy as with the Jazz. Prevent 3 pointers and prevent low post play from Ayton, everything else is fine.

both teams will have to play team defense to try to counter the other's advantage.

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[cupcakesnake]

Dallas has no size to deal with Ayton,

Am I wrong to expect Maxi to limit Ayton significantly when they're on the floor together? How is Maxi's defense against cutters/offensive rebounders?

I don't think Maxi is a particularly good picknroll defender... He might actually be a rather poor one. The Mavs play a lot of switching and a lot of help defense (*so he can be hidden like Doncic, in case he isn't a good picknroll defender), so I'm not sure. And last year their defense was non existent anyway, so I'm not sure if he can be judged based on last season.

I think his main strength is giving a player the jumpshoot instead of letting him in the paint. So, imagine that Butler gets a screen and tries to get rid of DFS and get's Maxi on him. It might seem a better matchup for Butler, but he actually won't be able to get in the paint and Maxi will stay in front of him the whole time and at the end Butler would just have to make a jumper over him. Maybe Maxi will come handy against Booker and CP3, because letting people shoot over him is his bread and butter, imo. Unless you've got Kawhi, Kawhi just abused him with his jumpers...

I think Maxi can do a good job on Ayton, if it's 1 vs 1 in the midrange and Ayton wants to shoot over him. If it's picknroll, Maxi alone can't really do anything and in the low post, Maxi will be solid enough to stay in front of Ayton, but Ayton can bully him to the basket very easily, if he wants. And then it's up to Ayton, if he hits his jumphook.

With regards to offensive rebounding, he will box out cutters and so on, but apart from that, he won't help you win the rebounding war. The Mavs were losing the rebounds pretty heavily until Doncic came back. I'm not sure if he can even box out Ayton, because Ayton will just keep pushing him to the basket. He couldn't really stop Gobert.

Anyway, the Mavs play on defense as a team quite a lot. So it's not gonna be just Maxi vs Ayton, even if Maxi is guarding Ayton.

I think the Mavs will use the same strategy as with the Jazz. Prevent 3 pointers and prevent low post play from Ayton, everything else is fine.

Appreciate the insights!

I agree with the analysis of Maxi as a guy who keeps his man in front of him more than he contests shots. The interesting thing with Ayton is that he's sort of in between. He doesn't need to get all the way to the hoop (most of his finishes at the basket are off passes), but he like to get below the foul line at go into a hook or a floater. So is Maxi going to get into his airspace and take away some of those shots, or will he conceded a lot of those? The Suns 3 main scorers are all happy to stop at the foul line to get their shots up, so Maxi's ability to barricade the rim might not be that useful. I think about Joker last year. Not that he's a similar defender to Maxi but his strength is kind of baiting guys into short midrange shots rather than getting to the rim. Phoenix just murdered that with non-stop midrange pullups.

[Qwigglez]

I have the Suns winning in five. I don’t see how the Mavs match up to Ayton and I think the Suns will allow Luka to do whatever he wants besides getting his teammates involved.

[Texas Chuck]

I agree with the analysis of Maxi as a guy who keeps his man in front of him more than he contests shots.

What has made Kleber such a valuable defender for Dallas has largely been his ability to do both. I mean this is a guy Dallas has assigned to be the primary defender on the league's best iso wings. And mostly to good effect except for Kawhi who dominated him in b2b playoff series.

But he moves his feet incredibly well for a C/PF and he's one of the best on-ball shot blockers I ever remember coming through Dallas. He's a decent shot blocker but very few of his blocks are coming over as a help defender as you mostly see. Most of his are getting his own man. Guys have finally learned and challenge him less than they used to.

His issue with Ayton is going to be mainly physical size/strength. Maxi is not a particularly strong rebounder and he can get pushed around by strong players(see Kawhi who went through him way more than he went around him).

[HMFFL]

If Ayton scores under 20pts and only has two free throw attempts per game I will be very happy. I expect Phoenix to utilize him more in this series. If he has close to 20 field goal attempts Dallas will be in trouble.

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[Los_29]

I think if you have a player as good as Luka, you have a chance against anyone.

[Archx]

Dallas has no size to deal with Ayton,

Am I wrong to expect Maxi to limit Ayton significantly when they're on the floor together? How is Maxi's defense against cutters/offensive rebounders?

I don't think Maxi is a particularly good picknroll defender... He might actually be a rather poor one. The Mavs play a lot of switching and a lot of help defense (*so he can be hidden like Doncic, in case he isn't a good picknroll defender), so I'm not sure. And last year their defense was non existent anyway, so I'm not sure if he can be judged based on last season.

In no playoff series ever were Mavs hidding Doncic, it's just that Kidd knows how to use him better than Rick did.

It might surprise you but according to NBA.com and Bball, Doncic has the best defensive WS% and the best DRTG in the playoffs (so far). And he has the same DBPM and BPM as Giannis at nr1 spot. He's also averaging 1 block per game which is a lot better than Maxi 0.2, plus his DFG% is the same as Ayton's.

Obviously i'm not saying that Luka is somekind of a juggernaut on defense in the paint but i always thought that Maxi's post defense was a bit overrated. He's best used at guarding wings but since Mavs are lacking any real big guys, Kidd has to use him this way.

[dygaction]

There are two potential advantages to the Mavs or at least reduce the seeming gaps.

In the playoffs, Mavs are bad at rebounding due to lack of size (77.2DRB%; Jazz #1 @85.5TRB%), but Suns are the current the worst team surprisingly (65.0DRB%). Ayton's will have rebounding advantage inside but Mavs have just survived from Gobert.

Suns are one of the best fast break teams after forcing turnovers and CP3 takes good care of the ball (2nd lowest turnovers per game @ 11tpg), but Mavs is the slowest team with the lowest turnovers (8.7tpg). Mavs were also the 2nd lowest turnover team in the regular season behind Hawks.

In slow paced half court games, we will see who is more masterful in break down the defense and create easy opportunities for the team, CP3 or Luka.

[irfunk_]

CP3 to Ayton connection is enough to overcome what makes Mavs special. I see this series 4-1 at max.

[dygaction]

Was trying to look at the regular season games since we do not have a playoff series between Mavs and Suns yet.
Luka played against Suns 8 games with 1W-7L in the past three years and he averaged 29.4/7.1r/6.5a/3.8t. A clear decrease from his average in assists and increase in TOs, and his 3pt shooting was limited to 23.9% at 5.75 attempts. Obviously Suns were very effective in forcing him to difficult shots with downside of giving Luka 11.1 FTA, a lot higher than his average against other teams.

This is going to be a very physical game. With a much improved team, Luka should have a lot more room to operate, reduce TOs and shoot more efficiently.

[YourCellarDoor]

of course they have a chance. they're a hot team with the best player in the series. the other team's best player probably isn't starting the series at full strength or all that close to it.

suns are favorites and deserve to be, i like the matchup for them, but waaaaay crazier things have happened.

[Gimli]

Am I wrong to expect Maxi to limit Ayton significantly when they're on the floor together? How is Maxi's defense against cutters/offensive rebounders?

I don't think Maxi is a particularly good picknroll defender... He might actually be a rather poor one. The Mavs play a lot of switching and a lot of help defense (*so he can be hidden like Doncic, in case he isn't a good picknroll defender), so I'm not sure. And last year their defense was non existent anyway, so I'm not sure if he can be judged based on last season.

I think his main strength is giving a player the jumpshoot instead of letting him in the paint. So, imagine that Butler gets a screen and tries to get rid of DFS and get's Maxi on him. It might seem a better matchup for Butler, but he actually won't be able to get in the paint and Maxi will stay in front of him the whole time and at the end Butler would just have to make a jumper over him. Maybe Maxi will come handy against Booker and CP3, because letting people shoot over him is his bread and butter, imo. Unless you've got Kawhi, Kawhi just abused him with his jumpers...

I think Maxi can do a good job on Ayton, if it's 1 vs 1 in the midrange and Ayton wants to shoot over him. If it's picknroll, Maxi alone can't really do anything and in the low post, Maxi will be solid enough to stay in front of Ayton, but Ayton can bully him to the basket very easily, if he wants. And then it's up to Ayton, if he hits his jumphook.

With regards to offensive rebounding, he will box out cutters and so on, but apart from that, he won't help you win the rebounding war. The Mavs were losing the rebounds pretty heavily until Doncic came back. I'm not sure if he can even box out Ayton, because Ayton will just keep pushing him to the basket. He couldn't really stop Gobert.

Anyway, the Mavs play on defense as a team quite a lot. So it's not gonna be just Maxi vs Ayton, even if Maxi is guarding Ayton.

I think the Mavs will use the same strategy as with the Jazz. Prevent 3 pointers and prevent low post play from Ayton, everything else is fine.

Appreciate the insights!

I agree with the analysis of Maxi as a guy who keeps his man in front of him more than he contests shots. The interesting thing with Ayton is that he's sort of in between. He doesn't need to get all the way to the hoop (most of his finishes at the basket are off passes), but he like to get below the foul line at go into a hook or a floater. So is Maxi going to get into his airspace and take away some of those shots, or will he conceded a lot of those? The Suns 3 main scorers are all happy to stop at the foul line to get their shots up, so Maxi's ability to barricade the rim might not be that useful. I think about Joker last year. Not that he's a similar defender to Maxi but his strength is kind of baiting guys into short midrange shots rather than getting to the rim. Phoenix just murdered that with non-stop midrange pullups.

Truth be told, I don't really know what to except specifically against Ayton. This year the matchups between the Suns and the Mavs:

November 17th: 98 - 105 for the Suns, 4th quarter 25-37 for the Suns. Ayton scored 19 points. Kleber and Doncic didn't play.
Ayton had 13 FGA, CP3 12, Booker 20.

November 19th: 104 - 112 for the Suns, 4th quarter 20:33 for the Suns. Ayton scored 8 points. Kleber and Doncic didn't play.
Ayton had 7 FGA, Booker 20, CP3 14.

In January Ayton didn't play, but the Mavs lost by 8 (and Doncic did play), but it was back to back for the Mavs, they won by 4 against Toronto the previous night.

So specifically Kleber vs Ayton matchup hasn't been seen. And in Novemeber the Mavs played with KP and Powell in the lineup at the same time, also THJ played. Now both KP and THJ are missing, so I don't think too much conclusion can be drawn from November. And the Mavs currently play only with one center on the floor. Last year the Mavs didn't play any defense, so I won't even check what happened.

If I go just by my memory about what happened in 2022 vs Embiid (first game only) and against Bam, they've prevented both (against Embiid in 2nd half, I'm not sure about Miami halfs) from entering the paint too much. They were allowed to operate somewhere in the mid post, but not in the low post. Against Embiid they prevented him from getting the ball in the low post, I think Embiid was guarded both by Bullock and Powell, so he couldn't get the ball, and once he did get the ball in the mid post, the Mavs built a wall, so Embiid had to pass. Against Bam I'm not sure what happened, but it was mainly Butler trying to be hero against Maxi and he couldn't do it. For some reason, Bam didn't really do a lot of damage. I don't think he got enough passes, but maybe that's just how Miami plays. I'm not sure why Bam didn't score more points. Anyway, Bam scored 21 points on 10/19 and Embiid 27 on 7/17 (14 FTA).

I don't remember what happened against KAT and Joker didn't have any good teammates anyway. Also the Mavs can often play without energy and focus, and they can lose against anyone, like against Wizards by 30. And the next game they come focused and with energy and defeat the Bucks by 10? on the road... So you have to be careful when analyzing the Mavs, whether they played "for real" or not.

I think the Mavs can stop any center (within limits), as long as he doesn't have too much support. But Ayton does have CP3 and Booker, which are 2 players, not even just 1.

In conclusion, I think Kleber will bother Ayton somewhere around the free throw line, but around the restricted area Kleber won't be able to do anything. Where to draw the line, I don't know. But I think Powell will be the primary defender on Ayton anyway. PS: I don't think Maxi barricades just around the rim. I think he's at his best somewhere between midpost and low post, against smaller attackers.

I think about Joker last year. Not that he's a similar defender to Maxi but his strength is kind of baiting guys into short midrange shots rather than getting to the rim. Phoenix just murdered that with non-stop midrange pullups

I think this is already the "pick your poison" territory. For sure they have to stop Ayton in the low post. But then there are options. They can focus on preventing the 3s, the midrange game or the layups. They also can try something like "let (injured) Booker beat us, but we will stop both Ayton and CP3"... I don't know what the best strategy would be. And we don't really have any relevant history, imo, between these 2 teams. Maybe just letting Booker beat the Mavs would be the best. If they barricade the paint and stick Bullock to CP3 and let Booker play against DFS, they should have enough energy for the offense. Instead of trying to prevent all of CP3, Booker and Ayton from scoring.

[sunsbg]

There are two potential advantages to the Mavs or at least reduce the seeming gaps.

In the playoffs, Mavs are bad at rebounding due to lack of size (77.2DRB%; Jazz #1 @85.5TRB%), but Suns are the current the worst team surprisingly (65.0DRB%). Ayton's will have rebounding advantage inside but Mavs have just survived from Gobert.

Suns are one of the best fast break teams after forcing turnovers and CP3 takes good care of the ball (2nd lowest turnovers per game @ 11tpg), but Mavs is the slowest team with the lowest turnovers (8.7tpg). Mavs were also the 2nd lowest turnover team in the regular season behind Hawks.

In slow paced half court games, we will see who is more masterful in break down the defense and create easy opportunities for the team, CP3 or Luka.

CP3 is called Point God for a reason. Luka sometimes has those high assist, low TO games, but quite often he has 7/5, 9/6, etc.

2022 Regular season

CP3 - 10.8/2.4
Luka - 8.7/4.5

2022 Playoffs

CP3 - 11.3/1.5
Luka - 5.7/4.0

If Luka is still not in best shape after the injury and doesn't improve on this ast/TO ratio, Mavs don't stand a chance.

[wolfram]

Mavs have low TO numbers, better than Suns in the 1st round for example.

[dygaction]

There are two potential advantages to the Mavs or at least reduce the seeming gaps.

In the playoffs, Mavs are bad at rebounding due to lack of size (77.2DRB%; Jazz #1 @85.5TRB%), but Suns are the current the worst team surprisingly (65.0DRB%). Ayton's will have rebounding advantage inside but Mavs have just survived from Gobert.

Suns are one of the best fast break teams after forcing turnovers and CP3 takes good care of the ball (2nd lowest turnovers per game @ 11tpg), but Mavs is the slowest team with the lowest turnovers (8.7tpg). Mavs were also the 2nd lowest turnover team in the regular season behind Hawks.

In slow paced half court games, we will see who is more masterful in break down the defense and create easy opportunities for the team, CP3 or Luka.

CP3 is called Point God for a reason. Luka sometimes has those high assist, low TO games, but quite often he has 7/5, 9/6, etc.

2022 Regular season

CP3 - 10.8/2.4
Luka - 8.7/4.5

2022 Playoffs

CP3 - 11.3/1.5
Luka - 5.7/4.0

If Luka is still not in best shape after the injury and doesn't improve on this ast/TO ratio, Mavs don't stand a chance.

You don't simply compare ass/to like that when Luka also scores two times more points (28.4 vs. 14.7) and the absolute focus of other teams' defense.

CP3 actually ranks #19 at 15.6 TOV% and Luka # 22 @ 15.3 TOV%. The difference comes from their different usage.