Stars in their mid 30s, minutes per game

[cupcakesnake]

TLDR version: Stop playing 30mpg when you hit age 35.

Right now in the NBA we have 2 absolute all-timers in the mid-to-late 30s who are still All-NBA level players, and hugely important to teams with championships aspirations.

- We just watched Chris Paul limp out of the playoffs, playing 35mpg after playing 32mpg in the regular season. Chris Paul has regularly been injured in the playoffs.
- Lebron was allowed to play 37mpg lol, despite the fact that he kept getting injured all year, managing only 55 games. James has been mostly injured the past 4 seasons but keeps putting up lofty minutes per games.

I can't help bit think about the Spurs. Starting in his age 34 season, Tim Duncan was kept under 30 mpg in every season but one (he played 30.1mpg in 2013). Manu played his last 30mpg season at age 33. Parker stopped at 31. The Spurs managed to stay pretty healthy on deep playoff runs with super old rosters, getting productive minutes from their big 3 + other old dudes like Boris Diaw, Michael Finley, Brent Barry, and David Robinson. It wasn't just the Spurs either. Kareem stopped playing huge minutes (relative to era) at age 34-35. Shaq stopped at 34 (but was probably a little late for him with his health issues). Dirk slowly ramped down his minutes from age 32-36.

Most mid-late 30s guys who don't do this, tend to end their championship windows slightly earlier than they wanted. Kobe, Hakeem, Barkley all ended up busted over their last seasons, still trying to keep their minutes as high as possible. Most of the super successful late-career guys scaled back their roles and minutes and saved something strategically for the playoffs.

I think it should be more of a thing that you just stop playing 30mpg in the regular season at age 34-35, even if you're still elite. If your team is that dependent on you in the regular season, you probably aren't a realistic contender. Lebron, Paul, and Kyle Lowry are the only guys over 34 playing over 30mpg. They allllll hurt their teams with injury problems. CP3 played amazing until he started actively hurting the Suns a few games ago. Al Horford and PJ Tucker are the guys still helping their teams in part because they played under 30mpg all season (both have upped their minutes in the playoffs. Al is playing 36mpg in the playoffs and helped swing the series against the Bucks).

It's a tough pill to swallow, and hard to get buy in from a star (especially one like Lebron, who is clearly hungry for that scoring title). But if you want to get to the finals, stop thinking you can play over 30mpg as a 35+ guy. I'm not saying come off the bench, just spend the season in cruise control/preservation mode. Your old ligaments can take this 82-game season. Not every star is lucky enough to reach their mid-30s and still be a star. If you're one of the privileged few, be humble and preserve that!

Next year this means Kevin Durant, Steph Curry... you should be decoys until the playoffs. Russ? Chill. Jimmy Butler... you're a year away from scaling it down. If you're serious about playing in the finals and trying to win a championship. Not take the minute cut I think is sort of a failure of strategy or ego.

[tsherkin]

Adding on to the OP, there are only 8 20+ ppg seasons from dudes 37+ in NBA history playing 30+ mpg. 2 of them are MJ. 3 of them are Karl Malone.

If you change that to 33+, you still only get 66 player-seasons across NBA history, and in only 35 of those did the player managed 70+ GS, though in 50 of them, 71+ GP.

You add 55%+ TS and there are only 32 player-seasons in NBA history of a dude 33+, playing 30+ mpg and scoring 20+ ppg. 5 from Karl Malone, 5 from Lebron, 6 from Kareem, 2 each from Dan Issel, Dirk and Hakeem. No one else has done it twice. You add a 70+ GP filter and you lose 9 of those player-seasons. Lebron's suddenly only on there once. Malone's still there 4 times. Kareem's still there 6 times. Issel's still there twice.

It's a pretty rare thing to see dude's in their mid/late 30s managing to score efficiently in volume while playing decent minutes. Guys who did it at all are outliers.

[Lockdown504090]

especially in todays game with how much faster you have to move and how much more ground you have to cover on defense. i think 33 minutes per game should be how high you let the minutes go for these guys. on minutes 20-30ish, there isnt much difference in how the body feels, but like the last few extra minutes there when the muscles get tired are absolute hell on your body. i remember when coach wanted me to go 37 out of the 40 minutes, those last couple minutes destroyed me and i was 23, i could imagine a guy whos pushing 40 doing that.

[tsherkin]

especially in todays game with how much faster you have to move and how much more ground you have to cover on defense. i think 33 minutes per game should be how high you let the minutes go for these guys. on minutes 20-30ish, there isnt much difference in how the body feels, but like the last few extra minutes there when the muscles get tired are absolute hell on your body. i remember when coach wanted me to go 37 out of the 40 minutes, those last couple minutes destroyed me and i was 23, i could imagine a guy whos pushing 40 doing that.

Doing it once, not a huge deal. Elevating minutes come the playoffs (to a point), not a huge deal. But load management on the aging athlete's body is a thing for a reason. Recovery is slower, injury is more likely. Got to be a bit more cautious. Ego gets in the way, and sometimes obviously team context. The paragon model for this, of course, is how Pops manages the Spurs, but everyone has to buy in top down for that to happen. And it needs to work out to team success. On a team like LA, it just wasn't an option because the team wasn't really going to win without Lebron being Lebron, and unfortunately, he burned out because even he is ultimately human.

[timO]

wtf, players are soft now

in the past they play +38 minutes

Jordan at 34 was playing that, and in playofos +41

im tired of pussy soft players, they already coast in RS a lot, they dont play D, they miss back to backs etc

[Warriorfan]

wtf, players are soft now

in the past they play +38 minutes

Jordan at 34 was playing that, and in playofos +41

im tired of pussy soft players, they already coast in RS a lot, they dont play D, they miss back to backs etc

Players now in their late 30s will be making 50million a year they should extend it as much as possible.

[Harry Garris]

wtf, players are soft now

in the past they play +38 minutes

Jordan at 34 was playing that, and in playofos +41

im tired of pussy soft players, they already coast in RS a lot, they dont play D, they miss back to backs etc

If you don't like the modern NBA then don't watch it.

[MoneyTalks41890]

wtf, players are soft now

in the past they play +38 minutes

Jordan at 34 was playing that, and in playofos +41

im tired of pussy soft players, they already coast in RS a lot, they dont play D, they miss back to backs etc

[tsherkin]

wtf, players are soft now

in the past they play +38 minutes

Jordan at 34 was playing that, and in playofos +41

im tired of pussy soft players, they already coast in RS a lot, they dont play D, they miss back to backs etc

The game is different. The nature of defense is different. The energy necessary to fill certain roles on the court is different. This isn't the 60s, when Wilt ran from box to box all night and then didn't move much once he got there, you know what I mean? Like, 40+ mpg is still impressive, but it does also erode playoff stamina. It puts more wear and tear on the body than is strictly necessary, and it isn't hot for end-of-game or end-of-season performance.

And of course, for career longevity, it makes a lot more sense to do it the way modern coaching and medicine are dictating than it does to blow guys out after 10, 12 years the way they did in the earlier time periods of the league.

[timO]

wtf, players are soft now

in the past they play +38 minutes

Jordan at 34 was playing that, and in playofos +41

im tired of pussy soft players, they already coast in RS a lot, they dont play D, they miss back to backs etc

Players now in their late 30s will be making 50million a year they should extend it as much as possible.

jordan at 34 earns like 36M$ equivalent as today 70M$?

Jordan played all 82 games his last 3 bulls seasons

jordan at 39 played 82 games his last season

[MoneyTalks41890]

Giving CP3 Cam Payne and Shamet as his relief was massively disrespectful. He needed a guy that could spell him and keep him under 30mpg in the RS, and take some burden in the playoffs.

[timO]

wtf, players are soft now

in the past they play +38 minutes

Jordan at 34 was playing that, and in playofos +41

im tired of pussy soft players, they already coast in RS a lot, they dont play D, they miss back to backs etc

If you don't like the modern NBA then don't watch it.

Sure i watch it less.

And maybe the MY less is more than yours, so...

[timO]

Giving CP3 Cam Payne and Shamet as his relief was massively disrespectful. He needed a guy that could spell him and keep him under 30mpg in the RS, and take some burden in the playoffs.

sure he need a nurse to play the 65 games

like Suns need him to be seed 1 with +8w vs grizz

[timO]

wtf, players are soft now

in the past they play +38 minutes

Jordan at 34 was playing that, and in playofos +41

im tired of pussy soft players, they already coast in RS a lot, they dont play D, they miss back to backs etc

they now brick 3s with 20 seconds on the clock

amazing PACE

[MrGoat]

wtf, players are soft now

in the past they play +38 minutes

Jordan at 34 was playing that, and in playofos +41

im tired of pussy soft players, they already coast in RS a lot, they dont play D, they miss back to backs etc

Players now in their late 30s will be making 50million a year they should extend it as much as possible.

jordan at 34 earns like 36M$ equivalent as today 70M$?

Jordan played all 82 games his last 3 bulls seasons

jordan at 39 played 82 games his last season

Jordan also retired for 3 years after his age 34 season.

[tsherkin]

Jordan played all 82 games his last 3 bulls seasons

He also took most of two seasons off. The entire 93-94 season, and all but 17 games in the RS the year after, before participating in the playoffs. That's a lot of grind missed. ANd earlier in his career, he played only 18 games in the RS of 85-86. So the mileage on his body wasn't quite as you're indicating. Certainly high, particularly given his playoff load. But then he also took off three seasons, came back and played 60 games (53 starts) in 01-02, and then started 67 of his 82 games in his final season.

Context matters.

[timO]

Players now in their late 30s will be making 50million a year they should extend it as much as possible.

jordan at 34 earns like 36M$ equivalent as today 70M$?

Jordan played all 82 games his last 3 bulls seasons

jordan at 39 played 82 games his last season

Jordan also retired for 3 years after his age 34 season.

Jordan has 6 rings can do that, cp3 have 0

but hey dont focus on him, Take KARL MALONE for example

[Michael Jackson]

wtf, players are soft now

in the past they play +38 minutes

Jordan at 34 was playing that, and in playofos +41

im tired of pussy soft players, they already coast in RS a lot, they dont play D, they miss back to backs etc

Players now in their late 30s will be making 50million a year they should extend it as much as possible.

jordan at 34 earns like 36M$ equivalent as today 70M$?

Jordan played all 82 games his last 3 bulls seasons

jordan at 39 played 82 games his last season

Jordan had 2 retirements by that time and he was just a rare physical specimen where he never got hurt. He is an outlier in health not a standard

[cupcakesnake]

On a team like LA, it just wasn't an option because the team wasn't really going to win without Lebron being Lebron, and unfortunately, he burned out because even he is ultimately human.

I found myself questioning this narrative a lot all season, with everyone saying the Lakers had no choice and that Lebron going all out like this gave them the best shot at a win. But hypothetically...if Lebron's minutes were cut to 32 and that resulted in him avoiding injury a little bit more, (let's say he plays 15 more games because of it) would you rather 56 games of Lebron playing 37 minutes, or 71 games of Lebron playing 32? That's 200 more minutes of Lebron over a full season.

Obviously it isn't automatic that he plays enough games to increase his minute total like in the example I just gave. But I do think it increases his chances.

I'm fine with the idea that the Lakers were doomed regardless, so just let Lebron chase his scoring title. But I never bought that this 37mpg Lebron was a winning strategy for LA.

[timO]

Players now in their late 30s will be making 50million a year they should extend it as much as possible.

jordan at 34 earns like 36M$ equivalent as today 70M$?

Jordan played all 82 games his last 3 bulls seasons

jordan at 39 played 82 games his last season

Jordan had 2 retirements by that time and he was just a rare physical specimen where he never got hurt. He is an outlier in health not a standard

is false, and he got hurt in rookie or sopho season

and take another players of the past

all played big minutes in their mid 30s, so cp3 minutes is not an excuse for his 43434 CHOKE JOB

and all of that is about this post, CP3 CHOKEs AGAIN, thats it, no excuses, no more lies iron maiden