Are the Suns a cautionary tale of ignoring analytics?

[GameOver25]

Booker just isn't that guy. He was shut down way to easy. I haven't heard anyone call him out, but he really needs to expand his game. Right now he's just an above average volume shooter.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

If the Suns were losing close games by a few points I'd take these arguments more seriously but when you are getting blown out by 30 at the half there is something else much bigger that is wrong.

That's what I was going to say.
They collapsed, this is not about a small math advantage at the margins, they obviously had much, MUCH bigger issues.
No defense can keep the suns at 27 point in one half without some help from the offense.

[enigmatics]

Something else is going on behind the scenes that we aren't aware of yet.

That being said - not having players who can consistently take the ball to the hoop and/or get to the free throw line kills teams in the playoffs.

[SelfishPlayer]

Didn't the Warriors win a championship while dominating the midrange?

[Patches Perry]

I appreciate the OP's post because I've seen a fixation lately on the idea that the midrange is still the thing that determines who wins the chip due to the fact that great playoff defense is more likely to force you to take shots from the midrange.

The logic is essentially: If we're going to have to make shots from the midrange to win, then we should make sure to have the best midrange shooters!

But there's a difference between being able to hit from midrange when you need to, and settling for the midrange as a matter of course.

This is right, and as I said at the end of my OP, being midrange heavy is only a problem if you're one dimensional and unable to beat teams other ways. I vaguely remember Houston going all in on the threes/fts/layups offense and when the defense funneled them into midrange shots, their offensive effectiveness suffered. Can't remember who that was against, Spurs maybe?

It sounds basic to just say "be good at everything" but ultimately when you're at the top of the standings, you need to have the capability to produce offense and win games multiple ways.

[Los_29]

If you look at the previous champions in recent memory Bucks Lakers Raptors none of those teams where analytic darlings Bucks and Lakers had dominated players in AD Lebron and Giannis while the Raptors caught every break in the book from Embiid's injury to catching a decimated Warriors team in the finals. Id argue the only analytic darling type team that won a ring ever was the Warriors and maybe the 2014 Spurs but they still had Tim Duncan playing at a significantly high level. Advanced Analytics say take this shot or that shot over this shot or that shot but the eye test says have the best players.

I have to chime in here. Joel Embiid wasn’t injured in 2019. He just got locked down by a former DPOY winner in Marc Gasol. Embiid played all 7 games of that series. Maybe you thought he was injured because the Raptors defense made him such a non factor in that series. He was invisible out there.

KD got hurt. That’s obviously a huge loss but the Raptors still thoroughly dominated the original GSW championship squad of Draymond, Steph and Klay.

There is an element of luck for every championship team. Bucks would’ve lost to the Nets had they been healthy, Warriors would have beaten the Cavs if Dray didn’t get suspended, Cavs would’ve beaten the Warriors had Love and Kyrie not been hurt.

So no, Raptors didn’t catch every break in the book. That’s absurd. What’s even more absurd is singling out the Raptors and not even mentioning the Bucks. Let’s be a little bit more objective here. Lol.

[DonaldSanders]

I don't think the Suns lost because of shot selection, they lost because they don't have a true star, or superstar. It's always been the knock I've had against them and it still is the problem. Devin Booker is not 1st team all-nba worthy, that was always ridiculous and was just given to him because of the Suns' record. Paul is a borderline 2nd banana, more like a 3rd because he is always "injured."

So it was really about having a great ensemble for the RS, but not enough top end for the playoffs when rotations and defenses tighten.

If you look at the previous champions in recent memory Bucks Lakers Raptors none of those teams where analytic darlings Bucks and Lakers had dominated players in AD Lebron and Giannis while the Raptors caught every break in the book from Embiid's injury to catching a decimated Warriors team in the finals. Id argue the only analytic darling type team that won a ring ever was the Warriors and maybe the 2014 Spurs but they still had Tim Duncan playing at a significantly high level. Advanced Analytics say take this shot or that shot over this shot or that shot but the eye test says have the best players.

I have to chime in here. Joel Embiid wasn’t injured in 2019. He just got locked down by a former DPOY winner in Marc Gasol. Embiid played all 7 games of that series. Maybe you thought he was injured because the Raptors defense made him such a non factor in that series. He was invisible out there.

KD got hurt. That’s obviously a huge loss but the Raptors still thoroughly dominated the original GSW championship squad of Draymond, Steph and Klay.

There is an element of luck for every championship team. Bucks would’ve lost to the Nets had they been healthy, Warriors would have beaten the Cavs if Dray didn’t get suspended, Cavs would’ve beaten the Warriors had Love and Kyrie not been hurt.

So no, Raptors didn’t catch every break in the book. That’s absurd. What’s even more absurd is singling out the Raptors and not even mentioning the Bucks. Let’s be a little bit more objective here. Lol.

Lol, the distorted view Raptors fans bring about this title is good for a laugh.

- Game 6 Klay on fire swings the game in W's direction and leaves with an injury, clinching the Series for the Raps
- Klay missed game 3 at home for the Warriors
- Acquiring KD meant that we lost a bunch of depth and David West retired the season before. Livingston was cooked and retired the next year. The bench was the worst it was the entire run, and we needed it most when Klay and KD were out.

So no, it really is not fair to say that the Raptors "dominated" the Warriors original squad that year, makes you sound like a homer. Klay missed time and the bench was the thinnest it was the entire GS run. You did not beat the a healthy 2014-15 Warriors squad.

I'm 100% confident that our 2014-2015 team would beat the Raptors in 5-6 games.

[Lalouie]

I heard JJ Redick mention this on a show and I thought it was interesting. Analytics are always a hot topic, and I think there is merit to some of the arguments on both sides. There is no question that some of the concepts have become commonplace in how NBA teams build their teams and offenses, and I think some take it too far. Just to be clear, I am definitely playing both sides of the fence in setting this up lol.

Some general principles of modern NBA analytics place value on:
1. Layups/Dunks
2. Three pointers
3. Free throws

With mid-range jumpers being the least desirable shot in the shot profile.

Suns were the best team in the regular season by an 8 game margin, but their offense did it in a way that is outright sinful to those analytic principles:
1. 29th out of 30 in shots attempted within 0-5 feet from the hoop (28th in made attempts)
2. 26th out of 30 in three pointers attempted (21st in made attempts)
3. 27th out of 30 in free throws attempted (24th in made attempts)

In the playoffs, these numbers haven't really changed:
10th out of 16 in shots attempted within 0-5 feet from the hoop (9th in made attempts)
15th out of 16 in three point attempts (14th in made attempts)
15th out of 16 in free throw attempts (14th in made attempts)

Obviously They won a lot of games and had a top 5 offense all year, which means they absolutely dominated the midrange 5-23 ft range, but it seems like Dallas was able to run them off the three, protect the paint, keep them off the free throw line and live with hopefully contested midrange shots. If you are a primarily 2 point team, it seems like playing against a good defensive team who has hot 3point runs can be demoralizing, because your jumpers don't seem any less difficult than theirs but yours are only scoring 2 points at a time.

It's also possible that it's more fair to say they were not anti-analytical, but rather just one-dimensional. We've seen teams take the threes/layups/free throws thing too far and flop in the playoffs as well. It's good to have every type of scoring play as an element of your offense, because in the playoffs, teams will take everything they can away from you and try to force you to live by your weakest option. Suns were near the bottom in every shot type except the mid-range, which seems like a recipe for disaster in hindsight.

Do you think the Suns built their offense without enough respect for analytics?

here is a stat i want to see BUT i'll bet there are no analytics for it!!

my opinion - analytics only show CUMULATIVE numbers. that is, totals at the end of the season. that is the 3pt analytics are only valid in the following way - "if you take 1000 3's it is more productive than taking 1000 2's". i want to see the per game analytics...or the per situation analytics. that is,,,,if a team is behind by 1pt with 10seconds to go, is it better to take a 35% 3pointer or a 48% 2pointer. IN THE WHOLE panoply of situations when such a scenario presents itself, what is the success rate of the 3 versus the 2 in producing a win. that is again,,,how many times have we seen a team shoot itself in the foot by taking unnecessary 3s when the 2 in those situations would have been more efficient.

bottom line, my point is PHX IS RIGHT, and that you are a prisoner of the moment. cp3 sucked, booker sucked, ayton sucked, and the rest of the team sucked, and that's why they lost

imo, the 3 is a frontrunner's shot. it is not a clutch shot unless you are lillard. to wit: i see curry brick more clutch 3s than frontrunner 3s.

[Duke4life831]

I think 3 things all popped up at once for them

1. CP3 being 37 and not being able to bring high energy every night. He was beginning to break down in the 1st round where he would have drastically up and down games. Then he finally just completely broke down in the 2nd round.

2. Ayton being Ayton. This has been Ayton's thing since he was in high school. When he brought it, the dude looks like once in a decade kind of big. But there were way too many times he just didn't show up. Well the Ayton that doesn't show up, popped up.

3. Booker isn't that guy that is going to be able to put the team completely on his back. Not even saying he's not on the Giannis/Jokic level. But look at what Luka did the last couple games to close out the series, look at what Tatum did the last couple games to close out his series. Booker just didn't rise to that level.

So ya I really think it was just a domino effect for this team. Ayton's success and him bringing energy to the game seems so tied to CP3. So once CP3 broke down, there went Ayton as well. Which meant Booker needed to put the entire team on his back and I don't think he's that player.

Not an analytical problem, just a roster breaking down all at once problem.

[og15]

I don't think their problem was that they shot a lot of mid-range necessarily. I think their problem was that they weren't enough of a threat from 3PT range IF NEEDED to dissuade and counter certain defensive schemes.

The Suns counter to how the Mavs were playing was either another playmaker who could attack after CP and Booker are loaded up on, or shooters who would consistently make them pay. One of Bridges main weaknesses is that he's not a consistent 3PT shooter, but also not a guy who can put up volume from 3 due to his type of release.

Suns didn't have the right personell to consistently counter the Mavs defense for sure, but CP and Booker shooting more three's is not what would have done it, it's the guys around them who needed to be big threats.

[bwgood77]

I think 3 things all popped up at once for them

1. CP3 being 37 and not being able to bring high energy every night. He was beginning to break down in the 1st round where he would have drastically up and down games. Then he finally just completely broke down in the 2nd round.

2. Ayton being Ayton. This has been Ayton's thing since he was in high school. When he brought it, the dude looks like once in a decade kind of big. But there were way too many times he just didn't show up. Well the Ayton that doesn't show up, popped up.

3. Booker isn't that guy that is going to be able to put the team completely on his back. Not even saying he's not on the Giannis/Jokic level. But look at what Luka did the last couple games to close out the series, look at what Tatum did the last couple games to close out his series. Booker just didn't rise to that level.

So ya I really think it was just a domino effect for this team. Ayton's success and him bringing energy to the game seems so tied to CP3. So once CP3 broke down, there went Ayton as well. Which meant Booker needed to put the entire team on his back and I don't think he's that player.

Not an analytical problem, just a roster breaking down all at once problem.

Ayton had pretty good games outside of the one he was in foul trouble and the last one where he got benched, but was playing as good or better than anyone else when that happened.

In the 5 games outside of those 2 he averaged over 19 a game on over 60% shooting, 10 rpg, and played pretty good D..he got switched on a lot but contested shots even if many of them went in because those guys were hot.

In the Pelicans series he averaged over 20 on 70% shooting and 10 boards a game and even though JV got lots of rebounds,he held him to terrible shooting %s...JV just rebounded a lot of his own misses while Ayton was contesting.

[Johnny Bball]

Their defense went to ****.

[Patches Perry]

bottom line, my point is PHX IS RIGHT, and that you are a prisoner of the moment. cp3 sucked, booker sucked, ayton sucked, and the rest of the team sucked, and that's why they lost

imo, the 3 is a frontrunner's shot. it is not a clutch shot unless you are lillard. to wit: i see curry brick more clutch 3s than frontrunner 3s.

Counterpoint: Not only is Phoenix near the bottom in three pointers attempted among both regular season and playoff teams, but out of 16 playoff teams, the top 4 in three point attempts per 100 possessions are the 4 conference finalists.

[Duke4life831]

I think 3 things all popped up at once for them

1. CP3 being 37 and not being able to bring high energy every night. He was beginning to break down in the 1st round where he would have drastically up and down games. Then he finally just completely broke down in the 2nd round.

2. Ayton being Ayton. This has been Ayton's thing since he was in high school. When he brought it, the dude looks like once in a decade kind of big. But there were way too many times he just didn't show up. Well the Ayton that doesn't show up, popped up.

3. Booker isn't that guy that is going to be able to put the team completely on his back. Not even saying he's not on the Giannis/Jokic level. But look at what Luka did the last couple games to close out the series, look at what Tatum did the last couple games to close out his series. Booker just didn't rise to that level.

So ya I really think it was just a domino effect for this team. Ayton's success and him bringing energy to the game seems so tied to CP3. So once CP3 broke down, there went Ayton as well. Which meant Booker needed to put the entire team on his back and I don't think he's that player.

Not an analytical problem, just a roster breaking down all at once problem.

Ayton had pretty good games outside of the one he was in foul trouble and the last one where he got benched, but was playing as good or better than anyone else when that happened.

In the 5 games outside of those 2 he averaged over 19 a game on over 60% shooting, 10 rpg, and played pretty good D..he got switched on a lot but contested shots even if many of them went in because those guys were hot.

In the Pelicans series he averaged over 20 on 70% shooting and 10 boards a game.

I agree he was very good in the Pels series. Im talking about more on what happened in the Mavs series where he ended up averaging 15/8 with a total of 7 assists, 1 steal, and 3 blocks for the entire 7 games. Even if you take away the last game, its still 17/8 average for the series. I just dont think he was that impactful in this series.

[tbp82]

If you look at the previous champions in recent memory Bucks Lakers Raptors none of those teams where analytic darlings Bucks and Lakers had dominated players in AD Lebron and Giannis while the Raptors caught every break in the book from Embiid's injury to catching a decimated Warriors team in the finals. Id argue the only analytic darling type team that won a ring ever was the Warriors and maybe the 2014 Spurs but they still had Tim Duncan playing at a significantly high level. Advanced Analytics say take this shot or that shot over this shot or that shot but the eye test says have the best players.

I have to chime in here. Joel Embiid wasn’t injured in 2019. He just got locked down by a former DPOY winner in Marc Gasol. Embiid played all 7 games of that series. Maybe you thought he was injured because the Raptors defense made him such a non factor in that series. He was invisible out there.

KD got hurt. That’s obviously a huge loss but the Raptors still thoroughly dominated the original GSW championship squad of Draymond, Steph and Klay.

There is an element of luck for every championship team. Bucks would’ve lost to the Nets had they been healthy, Warriors would have beaten the Cavs if Dray didn’t get suspended, Cavs would’ve beaten the Warriors had Love and Kyrie not been hurt.

So no, Raptors didn’t catch every break in the book. That’s absurd. What’s even more absurd is singling out the Raptors and not even mentioning the Bucks. Let’s be a little bit more objective here. Lol.

Correct me if I am wrong but wasn't Embiid dealing with some stomach/sickness injuries? In a series that close and him being sick made a huge difference Im sure.

[Lalouie]

bottom line, my point is PHX IS RIGHT, and that you are a prisoner of the moment. cp3 sucked, booker sucked, ayton sucked, and the rest of the team sucked, and that's why they lost

imo, the 3 is a frontrunner's shot. it is not a clutch shot unless you are lillard. to wit: i see curry brick more clutch 3s than frontrunner 3s.

Counterpoint: Not only is Phoenix near the bottom in three pointers attempted among both regular season and playoff teams, but out of 16 playoff teams, the top 4 in three point attempts per 100 possessions are the 4 conference finalists.

ummm...well. i don't see this as a "counterpoint" to my point but ok

again, my whole diatribe was about the validity of the analytics as a situational versus cumulative number. the fact that phx flopped is because the players themselves choked.

i don't think there's been presented the FULL comprehensive stat sheet on analytics. for instance,,,in playoffs which takes a deeper nose dive 3's, free throws, midrange, or points is the paint? or what kind of 3 is more successful, the frontrunner 3 or the clutch 3? is the "and 1 midrange" or "in the paint and 1" a better shot than the 3?

[og15]

bottom line, my point is PHX IS RIGHT, and that you are a prisoner of the moment. cp3 sucked, booker sucked, ayton sucked, and the rest of the team sucked, and that's why they lost

imo, the 3 is a frontrunner's shot. it is not a clutch shot unless you are lillard. to wit: i see curry brick more clutch 3s than frontrunner 3s.

Counterpoint: Not only is Phoenix near the bottom in three pointers attempted among both regular season and playoff teams, but out of 16 playoff teams, the top 4 in three point attempts per 100 possessions are the 4 conference finalists.

Yea, I don't think people should dismiss the 3PT shooting factor, there's a reason the league has valued 3PT shooting in recent years. There's a reason their opponent played their rim rolling C who doesn't space the floor only 13 mpg with his highest mpg coming in the game where they were up 40.

Spacing and the threat of the three changes how teams can defend you. The Suns actually did very well maximizing their more modest 3PT shooting and it was a strength unless as I said earlier it also meant they couldn't scale up the 3PT shooting if needed. Dallas took +12 3PA/G and shot the same percentage as Phoenix, which means you have to make it up somewhere else.

Bridges for the series was only able to get up 2.6 3PA/G in 35.6 mpg and shot 27.8% 3PT. He's a guy most don't want to criticize, but he was a guy they needed a lot more from in the series. It was too easy for Dallas to help off him, run him off the line and then force him into something contested inside the arc. He basically became a non-threat offensively which then makes it easier on defense for Dallas.

[Patches Perry]

bottom line, my point is PHX IS RIGHT, and that you are a prisoner of the moment. cp3 sucked, booker sucked, ayton sucked, and the rest of the team sucked, and that's why they lost

imo, the 3 is a frontrunner's shot. it is not a clutch shot unless you are lillard. to wit: i see curry brick more clutch 3s than frontrunner 3s.

Counterpoint: Not only is Phoenix near the bottom in three pointers attempted among both regular season and playoff teams, but out of 16 playoff teams, the top 4 in three point attempts per 100 possessions are the 4 conference finalists.

Yea, I don't think people should dismiss the 3PT shooting factor, there's a reason the league has valued 3PT shooting in recent years. There's a reason their opponent played their rim rolling C who doesn't space the floor only 13 mpg with his highest mpg coming in the game where they were up 40.

Spacing and the threat of the three changes how teams can defend you. The Suns actually did very well maximizing their more modest 3PT shooting and it was a strength unless as I said earlier it also meant they couldn't scale up the 3PT shooting if needed. Dallas took +12 3PA/G and shot the same percentage as Phoenix, which means you have to make it up somewhere else.

Bridges for the series was only able to get up 2.6 3PA/G in 35.6 mpg and shot 27.8% 3PT. He's a guy most don't want to criticize, but he was a guy they needed a lot more from in the series. It was too easy for Dallas to help off him, run him off the line and then force him into something contested inside the arc. He basically became a non-threat offensively which then makes it easier on defense for Dallas.

I agree. This is not a league where you deal in absolutes, so a team like the Suns could win but for me, it did feel sometimes like the Suns/Mavericks games were the Suns playing by 2s and the Mavericks playing by 3s. As I said in my OP, if a team rattles off several threes over nearly as many possessions, it has to be demoralizing for a team that primarily shoots 2s. It's a lot of pressure to be near perfect offensively just to keep up. The 3 is such a backbreaking shot.

A lot of people in here are writing off the Suns failure to just sucking or not showing up, but the kind of morale killer I reference above can contribute to those failures of effort/drive.

[bwgood77]

I think 3 things all popped up at once for them

1. CP3 being 37 and not being able to bring high energy every night. He was beginning to break down in the 1st round where he would have drastically up and down games. Then he finally just completely broke down in the 2nd round.

2. Ayton being Ayton. This has been Ayton's thing since he was in high school. When he brought it, the dude looks like once in a decade kind of big. But there were way too many times he just didn't show up. Well the Ayton that doesn't show up, popped up.

3. Booker isn't that guy that is going to be able to put the team completely on his back. Not even saying he's not on the Giannis/Jokic level. But look at what Luka did the last couple games to close out the series, look at what Tatum did the last couple games to close out his series. Booker just didn't rise to that level.

So ya I really think it was just a domino effect for this team. Ayton's success and him bringing energy to the game seems so tied to CP3. So once CP3 broke down, there went Ayton as well. Which meant Booker needed to put the entire team on his back and I don't think he's that player.

Not an analytical problem, just a roster breaking down all at once problem.

Ayton had pretty good games outside of the one he was in foul trouble and the last one where he got benched, but was playing as good or better than anyone else when that happened.

In the 5 games outside of those 2 he averaged over 19 a game on over 60% shooting, 10 rpg, and played pretty good D..he got switched on a lot but contested shots even if many of them went in because those guys were hot.

In the Pelicans series he averaged over 20 on 70% shooting and 10 boards a game.

I agree he was very good in the Pels series. Im talking about more on what happened in the Mavs series where he ended up averaging 15/8 with a total of 7 assists, 1 steal, and 3 blocks for the entire 7 games. Even if you take away the last game, its still 17/8 average for the series. I just dont think he was that impactful in this series.

He wasn't as impactful as he could have been with more touches and shots...the averages went up with the shots. I mentioned he was 19/10 taking out the last game and the foul trouble game with 18 minutes. Actually in one game he only played 22 and had 20 and 9 on 69% shooting. He was on pace if he played his normal 33 minutes in that game to have like a 30 pt, 14 reb game.

The thing is, looking at the team, Paul was turning it over and not trying to score and didn't get many assists in the last 5 games. Bridges played poorly as did Cam and Book in the last two. Ayton was the only guy to show up in game 6.

Ayton could have been more impactful but pretty much the whole team played poorly and he was probably as good as anyone outside of a few big moments for Paul in game 2 (and Booker once it was decided) and Book in games 4 and 5 (though Book had 5 turnovers in game 4).

[CS707]

Something might have been wrong behind the curtains.

I tend to think this albeit with no real evidence to support it other than the Ayton thing. It just wouldn’t surprise me if things started slowly trickling out. Book and Paul are obviously tight but who knows where the rest fall. This was just so weird though. More than an upset, they looked like they quit.