Would a full lottery with even odds for non-playoff teams fix tanking?

Effigy · Post #1 » by **Effigy** » Thu May 19, 2022 7:35 pm

If all 15 lottery teams had the same odds, and all 15 picks were in play, would that fix tanking? This would mean that there would literally be no reason to lose on purpose for anyone already in the lottery. You wouldn't see bad teams just sitting healthy players and trying to lose. There'd be no reason to. I don't even think you would see playoff teams trying to lose on purpose If you have a 7 or 8 seed are you really going to try to lose? You'd just get a 9 or 10 seed and be in the nationally televised playin tournament with nationally where everyone would see if you tried to lose on purpose.

What I am picturing is a system similar to how it used to be. 15 ping pong balls in a hopper. One with each team on it. It spits out one at a time. The first one gets the 15 pick, the next the 14th, etc to build up the drama (because of course it would be televised) All lottery teams have an equal shot at all picks. Playoff teams would choose by record as always.

Now I get the argument against, that the worst teams need the most help, but I'm not sure we're really getting that now. We have teams losing on purpose (my Blazers, included, obviously) and some aren't losing on purpose, and that's skewing things, as well as teams with long odds jumping up 7-8 places and getting a top pick. And really, anyone who missed the playoffs needs help. I'm also aware that this WAS the system until the Magic won it in back to back years and got Shaq and Penny and teams didn't like that. But my real question, is would it fix tanking, not would it hurt the feelings of other bad teams?

KokoKaizer · Post #2 » by **KokoKaizer** » Thu May 19, 2022 7:43 pm

Effigy wrote:If all 15 lottery teams had the same odds, and all 15 picks were in play, would that fix tanking? This would mean that there would literally be no reason to lose on purpose for anyone already in the lottery. You wouldn't see bad teams just sitting healthy players and trying to lose. There'd be no reason to. I don't even think you would see playoff teams trying to lose on purpose If you have a 7 or 8 seed are you really going to try to lose? You'd just get a 9 or 10 seed and be in the nationally televised playin tournament with nationally where everyone would see if you tried to lose on purpose.

What I am picturing is a system similar to how it used to be. 15 ping pong balls in a hopper. One with each team on it. It spits out one at a time. The first one gets the 15 pick, the next the 14th, etc to build up the drama (because of course it would be televised) All lottery teams have an equal shot at all picks. Playoff teams would choose by record as always.

Now I get the argument against, that the worst teams need the most help, but I'm not sure we're really getting that now. We have teams losing on purpose (my Blazers, included, obviously) and some aren't losing on purpose, and that's skewing things, as well as teams with long odds jumping up 7-8 places and getting a top pick. And really, anyone who missed the playoffs needs help. I'm also aware that this WAS the system until the Magic won it in back to back years and got Shaq and Penny and teams didn't like that. But my real question, is would it fix tanking, not would it hurt the feelings of other bad teams?

That was some good times

For the record, we traded the first pick (Chris Webber) for the third (Penny) and got 3 future first from GSW (and we wasted them)

Dick Tate · Post #3 » by **Dick Tate** » Thu May 19, 2022 7:47 pm

It would lead to more tanking. More teams tanking to stay below the 10th seed. 7-10 seeds would tank the play-in, especially if going into the playoffs with injuries.

Homer38 · Post #4 » by **Homer38** » Thu May 19, 2022 7:48 pm

The league are always going to have bad team.Look at the record of the bottom 10 team in the league in the late90s...It was way worst

hauntedcomputer · Post #5 » by **hauntedcomputer** » Thu May 19, 2022 7:49 pm

Non-playoff owners in general have the priority of:
1) Making money
2) winning if it doesn't cost too much

Seems like the weighted lottery is primarily a business decision--the idea is that awful teams need a reason for fans to actually watch games and feed the ticket and sponsorship machine. I.e. sell hope in the form of a young star, whose first seven years are usually wasted before they get to a better team. Very few bad teams actually capitalize on the stacked system. Bad teams tend to stay bad, but if there is a young prospect, there is fan interest and money.

I don't think this would fix the margins of tanking. Decent-ish teams may avoid the playoffs because they'd rather have a shot at a high pick than a first-round bounce and middling pick.

Personally I favor a 30-team lottery, no weighting. Why reward losers and why punish young players by sending them to purgatory, where many fail to develop because of the rot around them?

Synciere · Post #6 » by **Synciere** » Thu May 19, 2022 7:51 pm

Effigy wrote:If all 15 lottery teams had the same odds, and all 15 picks were in play, would that fix tanking? This would mean that there would literally be no reason to lose on purpose for anyone already in the lottery. You wouldn't see bad teams just sitting healthy players and trying to lose. There'd be no reason to. I don't even think you would see playoff teams trying to lose on purpose If you have a 7 or 8 seed are you really going to try to lose? You'd just get a 9 or 10 seed and be in the nationally televised playin tournament with nationally where everyone would see if you tried to lose on purpose.

What I am picturing is a system similar to how it used to be. 15 ping pong balls in a hopper. One with each team on it. It spits out one at a time. The first one gets the 15 pick, the next the 14th, etc to build up the drama (because of course it would be televised) All lottery teams have an equal shot at all picks. Playoff teams would choose by record as always.

Now I get the argument against, that the worst teams need the most help, but I'm not sure we're really getting that now. We have teams losing on purpose (my Blazers, included, obviously) and some aren't losing on purpose, and that's skewing things, as well as teams with long odds jumping up 7-8 places and getting a top pick. And really, anyone who missed the playoffs needs help. I'm also aware that this WAS the system until the Magic won it in back to back years and got Shaq and Penny and teams didn't like that. But my real question, is would it fix tanking, not would it hurt the feelings of other bad teams?

Yes, it would fix tanking, but small market teams would complain day after day about being able to get premier talent since they can't really compete in free agency.

JujitsuFlip · Post #7 » by **JujitsuFlip** » Thu May 19, 2022 7:53 pm

There are only 14 lottery teams.

KawhiSoSerious · Post #8 » by **KawhiSoSerious** » Thu May 19, 2022 7:57 pm

I don't think it would "fix tanking", but rather change the goal of it. Currently we see a race to the bottom for a handful of teams each year. Under the proposed change I think we would see a push for borderline playoff teams, play-in teams and perhaps treadmill teams to try and drop out of the playoffs. If the 14th worst team has the same odds as the worst team, the goalposts will just shift there IMO. Instead of tanking to the bottom teams would be tanking to just below the middle of the pack.

Also, it would likely kill a lot of the joy of the play-in (for those who like it)...and REALLY kill it for those already opposed.

scrabbarista · Post #9 » by **scrabbarista** » Thu May 19, 2022 7:59 pm

Effigy wrote:If all 15 lottery teams had the same odds, and all 15 picks were in play, would that fix tanking? This would mean that there would literally be no reason to lose on purpose for anyone already in the lottery. You wouldn't see bad teams just sitting healthy players and trying to lose. There'd be no reason to. I don't even think you would see playoff teams trying to lose on purpose If you have a 7 or 8 seed are you really going to try to lose? You'd just get a 9 or 10 seed and be in the nationally televised playin tournament with nationally where everyone would see if you tried to lose on purpose.

What I am picturing is a system similar to how it used to be. 15 ping pong balls in a hopper. One with each team on it. It spits out one at a time. The first one gets the 15 pick, the next the 14th, etc to build up the drama (because of course it would be televised) All lottery teams have an equal shot at all picks. Playoff teams would choose by record as always.

Now I get the argument against, that the worst teams need the most help, but I'm not sure we're really getting that now. We have teams losing on purpose (my Blazers, included, obviously) and some aren't losing on purpose, and that's skewing things, as well as teams with long odds jumping up 7-8 places and getting a top pick. And really, anyone who missed the playoffs needs help. I'm also aware that this WAS the system until the Magic won it in back to back years and got Shaq and Penny and teams didn't like that. But my real question, is would it fix tanking, not would it hurt the feelings of other bad teams?

I would prefer this to be the system, because I do believe it would fix tanking. [EDITED at the bottom. Eh, give me a 30-team, equal-odds lotto, or, even better, a Wheel of Time like the one most famously advocated by Zach Lowe, but named after Michael Jordan instead of Robert Jordan.]

The thing about tanking is that perception is all that matters, not reality. If we're all too distracted to notice the abundant tanking that's taking place, then it's basically not taking place. The play-in race has been a very good distraction. Fan attention generally follows media attention (the chicken and the egg, really), though, and both are pretty fickle, so maybe tanking will become a story again in the future. For now, I'll just reiterate: it was absolutely rampant this season, but no one seemed to care. [Actually, a lot of media were saying it was curbed and under control and at reasonable levels. Hilarious.] And if no one cares, then it doesn't really matter.

All that said, as someone who is very suspicious of how the league operates in general, I would assume an equal odds system would be easier to rig. That is, it might be a little easier to rig logistically, but it would - in theory, which is probably worthless in this case - definitely be easier to say, "X team won two top-three picks in a row with odds of 21% each time," rather than, "X team won two top-three picks in a row with odds of 3% each time." I say "in theory," of course, because most people don't really look that deeply into stuff like this. It's funny how a team picking #1 two years in a row causes a ruckus big enough to get the rules changed, but a team could move way up into the top three for two or three straight seasons and hardly anyone would bat an eye. But I digress.

TL:DR
I like it, but it's a long way from happening, if it ever even does, which it probably won't.

EDIT: Looks like I'm the one who didn't think deeply enough this time. Yep, it would lead to tanking from teams that tried to get into the lottery instead of the play-in. I'm sure there's a fix for that, but I just ate half of a stuffed-crust pizza, and now is not the time for deep thinking.

UcanUwill · Post #10 » by **UcanUwill** » Thu May 19, 2022 8:01 pm

It wouldn't cause teams around 7 and 8 spot would start tanking. Even odds in lottery > first round exit

YogurtProducer · Post #11 » by **YogurtProducer** » Thu May 19, 2022 8:11 pm

UcanUwill wrote:It wouldn't cause teams around 7 and 8 spot would start tanking. Even odds in lottery > first round exit

Not if you extend the lottery to include those teams as well which IMO would not be the worst thing.

18 teams in the lottery (7-15 seeds in each conference). Teams then have no incentive NOT to try and build a team to win. No more stupid conversations like we got on the Raptors board all year like should we trade away all our talent and purposely lose????

Dominator83 · Post #12 » by **Dominator83** » Thu May 19, 2022 8:11 pm

They would need to add in all the 1st round exit teams as well. That would be perfect and nobody would be trying to lose games

Lenneth · Post #13 » by **Lenneth** » Thu May 19, 2022 8:20 pm

I don't think it will solve the tanking. Instead of lottery teams tanking, I can see lower seed teams with no hope tanking to get into the lottery especially if the lottery has a generational talent. And, the whole purpose of the lottery is to help bad teams bounce back fast with good rookies. If the 14th team gets the #1 pick/the worst team gets the #14 pick, it will only be harder for the worst team to get better. Or, it will create situations like Spurs drafting Duncan one too many times, except that team just need to be in the lottery.

Effigy · Post #14 » by **Effigy** » Thu May 19, 2022 8:20 pm

hauntedcomputer wrote: Bad teams tend to stay bad

I don't think that's true at all. Sure there are SOME bad teams that seem to stay bad. The Kings, the Knicks, the TWolves. But that's pretty much it (And no I am not taking Minny out because of one good year, yet). Everyone else seems like they turn it around. Remember how bad Philly was? They've been a top team in the East for years now. The Lakers won titles in 2009 and 10, were in the lottery for 5 years and then won the title again. OKC is tanking now, but they had never missed the playoffs until LAST year. For the most part, teams cycle. They're good, then they're bad, then they're good again.

hauntedcomputer wrote:
Non-playoff owners in general have the priority of:
1) Making money
2) winning if it doesn't cost too much

I don't think this would fix the margins of tanking. Decent-ish teams may avoid the playoffs because they'd rather have a shot at a high pick than a first-round bounce and middling pick.

By your OWN admittance, teams care more about making money than anything else, and playoff revenue is big business. They always chase that. Even the play in tournament has been lauded because teams in the 9-10 range try to make the playoffs rather than lose on purpose. Just for a CHANCE at playoff money, these owners aren't tanking. Sure there are exceptions to everything, but by and large, Owners are motivated by money and that means they want to make the playoffs. Only if they can't make the playoffs do they sign off on tanking.

Mister Ze · Post #15 » by **Mister Ze** » Thu May 19, 2022 8:24 pm

I think there should be 0 incentive to lose a basketball game. So I like the idea

Effigy · Post #16 » by **Effigy** » Thu May 19, 2022 8:27 pm

UcanUwill wrote:It wouldn't cause teams around 7 and 8 spot would start tanking. Even odds in lottery > first round exit

I don't agree. Teams in the 7-8 range are trying to move up to the 5-6 range, not lose. And even if they DID lose they'd still be in the playin tournament and have a shot at making the playoffs or have to let the whole world watch them try to lose a playin game on purpose. I could maybe see this happening ONCE in a while. A Mark Cuban type might try this, but no way would it be the norm, not like it is now where you have 8 teams trying to lose on purpose every year.

DarkAzcura · Post #17 » by **DarkAzcura** » Thu May 19, 2022 8:28 pm

Tanking isn’t a real problem.

Or the solution to it isn’t anywhere close to playing with the odds if you think it’s a real problem.

Gramercy Riffs · Post #18 » by **Gramercy Riffs** » Thu May 19, 2022 8:30 pm

OP is a solution without a problem because tanking is not a problem.

Dominator83 · Post #19 » by **Dominator83** » Thu May 19, 2022 8:32 pm

Lenneth wrote:I don't think it will solve the tanking. Instead of lottery teams tanking, I can see lower seed teams with no hope tanking to get into the lottery especially if the lottery has a generational talent. And, the whole purpose of the lottery is to help bad teams bounce back fast with good rookies. If the 14th team gets the #1 pick/the worst team gets the #14 pick, it will only be harder for the worst team to get better. Or, it will create situations like Spurs drafting Duncan one too many times, except that team just need to be in the lottery.

I would rather reward the teams stuck in the middle for atleast trying than the teams that are awful. If you don't wanna be awful then don't trade good players for picks and make some veteran FA signings in the summer. It's not hard to be in the middle. The rewards should start once you get to that point.

Jadoogar · Post #20 » by **Jadoogar** » Thu May 19, 2022 8:36 pm

tanking is barely a problem anymore. The bottom 4 teams have the same odds and the odds are flattened now. There is no incentive to do process-style bottom of the barrel tanking anymore, you can just be run of the mill bad and have the same odds as OKC.

The teams with the bottom 4 records this year were just the youngest teams in the league. Aside from OKC (and Houston kind of), none of them were actively tanking. Young teams just lose.