FiveThirtyEight giving the Celtics an 83% chance to win finals

WarriorGM · Post #1 » by **WarriorGM** » Mon May 30, 2022 5:11 am

The FiveThirtyEight RAPTOR player model has been really high on the Celtics throughout the entire playoffs considering the Celtics just shy of an all-time great team and gives them an 83% chance to win the championship.

Meanwhile it rates the Warriors as more of a playoffs team with only a 17% chance to win.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

GiannisAnte34 · Post #2 » by **GiannisAnte34** » Mon May 30, 2022 5:13 am

By those figures you’d expect the Celtics to be a juggernaut but it doesn’t pass the eye test. When I watch the Celtics its clear they have some exploitable flaws

Also 538 had Hillary as like a 90-99% favorite over Trump depending on what point of the race you look at

AussieCeltic · Post #3 » by **AussieCeltic** » Mon May 30, 2022 5:26 am

538 has been on the Celtics since Jan/Feb. Even the biggest Celtics homers thought it was crazy. But here we are, 4 games away from them being right.

GSWFan1994 · Post #4 » by **GSWFan1994** » Mon May 30, 2022 5:49 am

"Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost: more for support than illumination."

Andrew Lang

celticfan42487 · Post #5 » by **celticfan42487** » Mon May 30, 2022 5:50 am

They'd had the Celtics with like an 80% to win since January lol

Pachinko_ · Post #6 » by **Pachinko_** » Mon May 30, 2022 5:52 am

538 is dumb

dk1115 · Post #7 » by **dk1115** » Mon May 30, 2022 5:52 am

Give me 5:1 on the Warriors winning. I'll put a year's salary on that.

theFireBlanket · Post #8 » by **theFireBlanket** » Mon May 30, 2022 5:52 am

Warriors are going to mop the Cs.

Post #9 » by **zimpy27** » Mon May 30, 2022 5:56 am

I agree actually. I had Celtics winning against GSW and GSW beating Heat.

giberish · Post #10 » by **giberish** » Mon May 30, 2022 6:00 am

GiannisAnte34 wrote:By those figures you’d expect the Celtics to be a juggernaut but it doesn’t pass the eye test. When I watch the Celtics its clear they have some exploitable flaws

Also 538 had Hillary as like a 90-99% favorite over Trump depending on what point of the race you look at

538 has many flaws but this isn't one of them. While many others had Hillary as a 95-99% favorite, 538 only had her as around a 70-75% favorite. They correctly reasoned that while Trump had to do better then expected in several states to win, those states would likely all move together (or that the polling offset was likely not random state to state but strongly correlated).

I always find it weird that a flawed site is most frequently bashed for something that they were far more correct about than most others.

Lenneth · Post #11 » by **Lenneth** » Mon May 30, 2022 6:06 am

538 also predicted Warriors to go 37-45. That didn't go well.

Kvothe22 · Post #12 » by **Kvothe22** » Mon May 30, 2022 6:12 am

That's realistic. I don't see how GSW can win.

narmerguy · Post #13 » by **narmerguy** » Mon May 30, 2022 6:21 am

GSW offense has been very shoddy and I think they will likely get exposed in the Finals. Curry has not been shooting to his usual standards all season, Klay not the same offensively or defensively, Draymond always a non-factor, Wiggins is great but can't be expected to score like a first option. I think combined with Curry's history of not reaching another level in the playoffs, to say nothing of his duds, I can't really see how the Warriors win this one. I actually want them to, but just don't see it. Terrible matchup for them.

JimmyPlopper · Post #14 » by **JimmyPlopper** » Mon May 30, 2022 6:23 am

zimpy27 wrote:I agree actually. I had Celtics winning against GSW and GSW beating Heat.

I had Falcons beating the Mets in football, but questionable on golf.

jpengland · Post #15 » by **jpengland** » Mon May 30, 2022 6:36 am

giberish wrote:
GiannisAnte34 wrote:By those figures you’d expect the Celtics to be a juggernaut but it doesn’t pass the eye test. When I watch the Celtics its clear they have some exploitable flaws

Also 538 had Hillary as like a 90-99% favorite over Trump depending on what point of the race you look at

538 has many flaws but this isn't one of them. While many others had Hillary as a 95-99% favorite, 538 only had her as around a 70-75% favorite. They correctly reasoned that while Trump had to do better then expected in several states to win, those states would likely all move together (or that the polling offset was likely not random state to state but strongly correlated).

I always find it weird that a flawed site is most frequently bashed for something that they were far more correct about than most others.

Absolutely this. But, to build on this again, the fact that they made Clinton the favourite doesn't make them wrong. The odds openly accepted that Trump could win if everything broke right for him and he did.

timO · Post #16 » by **timO** » Mon May 30, 2022 6:50 am

They were a shot away from losing a Big lead in last 2 minutes, gsw will not forgive that.

Dubnation · Post #17 » by **Dubnation** » Mon May 30, 2022 6:52 am

Boston deserves to be the favorite. They've proven over the years with the record. I'm sure they're licking its collective chops.

Hobo4President · Post #18 » by **Hobo4President** » Mon May 30, 2022 6:54 am

jpengland wrote:
giberish wrote:
GiannisAnte34 wrote:By those figures you’d expect the Celtics to be a juggernaut but it doesn’t pass the eye test. When I watch the Celtics its clear they have some exploitable flaws

Also 538 had Hillary as like a 90-99% favorite over Trump depending on what point of the race you look at

538 has many flaws but this isn't one of them. While many others had Hillary as a 95-99% favorite, 538 only had her as around a 70-75% favorite. They correctly reasoned that while Trump had to do better then expected in several states to win, those states would likely all move together (or that the polling offset was likely not random state to state but strongly correlated).

I always find it weird that a flawed site is most frequently bashed for something that they were far more correct about than most others.

Absolutely this. But, to build on this again, the fact that they made Clinton the favourite doesn't make them wrong. The odds openly accepted that Trump could win if everything broke right for him and he did.

Yeah, like do people not understand probability? You can argue that the methodology was incorrect or the data they used was biased but saying they were wrong because Trump won is weird.

Patches Perry · Post #19 » by **Patches Perry** » Mon May 30, 2022 6:57 am

There's no question about how good Boston has been in the calendar year. I think the model overrates them but fans underrate them. It should be a great series.

Post #20 » by **NO-KG-AI** » Mon May 30, 2022 7:08 am

Hobo4President wrote:
jpengland wrote:
giberish wrote:
538 has many flaws but this isn't one of them. While many others had Hillary as a 95-99% favorite, 538 only had her as around a 70-75% favorite. They correctly reasoned that while Trump had to do better then expected in several states to win, those states would likely all move together (or that the polling offset was likely not random state to state but strongly correlated).

I always find it weird that a flawed site is most frequently bashed for something that they were far more correct about than most others.

Absolutely this. But, to build on this again, the fact that they made Clinton the favourite doesn't make them wrong. The odds openly accepted that Trump could win if everything broke right for him and he did.

Yeah, like do people not understand probability? You can argue that the methodology was incorrect or the data they used was biased but saying they were wrong because Trump won is weird.

It's the people on here that tell people stats don't matter, because they don't understand them lol.