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Continued from here: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2198752&start=1780

Let's see how tough it is to play in Boston

Celtic's -3.5 is free money tonight boys

Scott Foster vs Draymond is going to be a hoot tonight haha.

azcatz11 wrote:Celtic's -3.5 is free money tonight boys

Last time I saw you said there was free money you lost so Warriors +3.5 it is

The computers continue to be in love with the Celtics...

bisme37 wrote:The computers continue to be in love with the Celtics...

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When is vegas going to switch the odds to reflect these numbers!! If you're a celtics fan I'd be betting the house. 88% and 80%. Geez

Onus wrote:

bisme37 wrote:The computers continue to be in love with the Celtics...

Spoiler:

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When is vegas going to switch the odds to reflect these numbers!! If you're a celtics fan I'd be betting the house. 88% and 80%. Geez

I'm not much of a bettor but my understanding is that Vegas odds don't really reflect who they think will win as much as the odds reflect where the bets are falling.

[quote="bisme37"][/quote]
Yea I know that's why I'm telling celtics backers to make these odds more inline with the computer. If all the celtics backers bet their house on the celtics to win the series, the odds would be changed and then I could get these odds as a warriors better!

Onus wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:Celtic's -3.5 is free money tonight boys

Last time I saw you said there was free money you lost so Warriors +3.5 it is

You will regret it - this time I'm serious

Game day mf’ers!!!! Let’s go!

Celtics 88% chance to win the series based on robots? If the Warriors win this series, we all need to finally and publicly address that data/analytics is a tool/input and not the end result to a decision.

Even though I am a Celtics fan, the basketball purist in me doesn't like how the point spread has changed so much between games 2 and 3. I would love some good journalist not in the pocket of the NBA to question Adam Silver on this since my biggest conclusion is the betting public believes the referees in the NBA isn't on the complete up and up. Not saying fixed but just clearly shaded at times based upon the situation.

What other major sport out there would a team that got a key rotation player back who performed well and got a 29 point lead right before garbage time would go from a 4.5 point favorite at home to a 3.5 point road underdog? Warriors performed well above expectations in game 2 vs the Celtics and their pressure clearly bothered the Celtics at times. Robert Williams didn't look like he moved that well as well. IMO the 8 point change is kind of a sign that gamblers kind of believe the NBA has a bit of a WWF/WWE element to it.

It isn't like Boston is playing in the old Boston Garden that truly was an inhospitable environment for visiting teams. Celtics have lost 4 playoff games at home while winning a lot more on the road. Yes, I know they haven't lost 2 in a row in the playoffs but that isn't as significant IMO as the 4 home losses. The Warriors hadn't lost at home this playoffs and I didn't read that much into it since I thought Boston was better than Denver/Memphis/Dallas. The Warriors haven't done as well on the road but they have still have won at least one game on the road each series.

If the Celtics were playing in the old Boston Garden with those crazier fans, I could see a larger justification for the relatively large movement of the line.

Hopefully less Draymond antics and more basketball tonight!

Celtics live and die by the three. Thats the only way their offense can keep up with the Warriors (if the Warriors are playing up to their standard). So its a must that the Celtics continue to shoot 40% or better from 3.

MindState wrote:Celtics live and die by the three. Thats the only way their offense can keep up with the Warriors (if the Warriors are playing up to their standard). So its a must that the Celtics continue to shoot 40% or better from 3.

Kind of a mischaracterization imo. In the postseason we've played teams like the Bucks and Warriors, which are top defenses that intend to take away drives and give up 3s. So we've been taking what the defense gives us. It's not that we want to take a bunch of 3s as much as we're just taking open shots, and the best looks have often been from 3.

liquidswords wrote:Celtics 88% chance to win the series based on robots? If the Warriors win this series, we all need to finally and publicly address that data/analytics is a tool/input and not the end result to a decision.

They also gave Celtics the best chance to reach the Finals and they did. Are we going to ignore that they got it right?

Also, you do realize 88% chance of winning means there is a 12% chance of losing right?

liquidswords wrote:Celtics 88% chance to win the series based on robots? If the Warriors win this series, we all need to finally and publicly address that data/analytics is a tool/input and not the end result to a decision.

Predictive analytics, the way most sites use them, are almost worthless

Just remember - you almost always get what you pay for

I'd say the Celtics are probably still statistically in the driver's seat, but at an almost 9:1 clip? That seems unlikely

MindState wrote:Celtics live and die by the three. Thats the only way their offense can keep up with the Warriors (if the Warriors are playing up to their standard). So its a must that the Celtics continue to shoot 40% or better from 3.

Celtics and Warriors have attempted the same amount of threes and hit the same percentage in the playoffs: 37.3 attempts on 37% shooting for the Celtics vs 36.2 attempts on 38% shooting for Warriors. In this series, Bos is at 39 attempts on 45% shooting while GSW is at 41 attempts on 42% shooting.

Both teams attempt a lot of 3s and need to hit a good share of them to win it (while limiting the turnovers).