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Obviously lots of teams are looking to improve in the win column this season. For that to happen, those wins need to come from elsewhere. So which teams do you think will regress or underperform this season compared to last?

The most obvious ones are the Utah Jazz as they’re selling off for a rebuild and Pacers for similar reasons. But beyond that, if you look around the league, most of the playoff teams and non playoff teams from last year are hoping for a step forward this year.

Let’s look at the good teams that should be obviously better in regular season wins:
LA Clippers
LA Lakers
Minnesota Timberwolves
Atlanta Hawks
Brooklyn Nets
Orlando Magic

These teams all got all-star level players via trade, draft or back from injury, so that will have a major impact in the wins column.

So which teams will actually regress compared to last year? Who didn’t do enough this off season to even maintain their status quo?

Heat? Lost tucker? But still have good young talent.
Mavericks lost their top 2 scorer, but added a center and Luka looks in shape.
Memphis? Did they over perform? But they’re team is so young and talented.

Hard to see where the wins come from, which playoff teams will regress?

Looking at title odds, to me Los Angeles Clippers seem to be the most overrated. Also Boston, but Boston will be good, I just dont see them as best team.

Celtics and HEAT

Celtics, I doubt they will go to the finals again. Barely made it there this year.
The bar is very high for them, so it is easy to pick them.

I think Memphis is a good bet to be honest. There's a lot of depth and youth on that team, and as guys put themselves firmly on the track of come uppance, egoes and ambition get in the way. I don't see 56 wins and a 2 seed during their 22-23 campaign.

Phoenix is also vulnerable given Chris Paul's age.

Utah will find out that Gobert is a much larger part of their success than they realize. They will miss the playoffs altogether.

Memphis missing JJJ is going to hurt them especially early so I think they fall back.

I think with Chris Paul aging I think the Sun's win a few less.

I also expect the Warriors record take a step back this year, between playing to older veterans less during the regular season and so many teams looking better I think they save it for the playoffs.

Memphis won 56 games last year, i think that's going to drop pretty significantly especially with the JJJ injury

For non injury related regression (aka the Knicks of this year), my pick would be Chicago. Derozan had a career year and they came back to earth in the second half of the season. I expect them to be in the playoff hunt this year.

skones wrote:I think Memphis is a good bet to be honest. There's a lot of depth and youth on that team, and as guys put themselves firmly on the track of come uppance, egoes and ambition get in the way. I don't see 56 wins and a 2 seed during their 22-23 campaign.

Phoenix is also vulnerable given Chris Paul's age.

Utah will find out that Gobert is a much larger part of their success than they realize. They will miss the playoffs altogether.

I think Utah wants to miss the playoffs......by a huge margin. In other words, tank.

I'll go with regression for fully half of these teams ...

Nets, Sixers, Knicks, Bulls,
Hawks, Clippers, Portland, Lakers

partially for age and injury issues ... but more importantly too much drama distracting from the real task

Last Year in the East..

Bucks
Heat
Celtics
Sixers
Raptors
Bulls
Nets

This year..
Bucks
Celtics
Sixers
Raptors
Bulls
Heat

Which 2 are we going to put in here.. I say Cavs and Hawks

Magic
Pistons
Hornets
Nets

East is good now... Heat may not look better on paper..but it's their system that will keep them in the playoff hunt..if Jimmy and Lowry get injured again..they could be out..

Celtics have the most depth.. Bucks have a lot of experience with the same team.. Raptors are running it back with a healthy Siakam starting this season along with an improved Scottie Barnes..adding Otto Potter helps with depth..
Bulls will be healthy finally...Ball..Lavine and Derozan are a good combo.. Hawks have the best 2 guard combo right now. Magic might surprise a few teams this year, so will the Pistons..

heat for sure

Brooklyn will have a better regular season, but struggle in the postseason again

Charlotte with their player issues and non-movement.

Heat - losing Tucker, ageing Butler & Lowry (who already declined)
Suns - certainly not picking them to 1st, weird team "chemistry" now with Ayton & I just don't believe CP3 will hold up anymore
Hornets - lose Bridges with nothing to replace him
Jazz - because obviously loss of Gobert & eventually Mitchell, clearly want to tank
Spurs - they clearly want to tank too lol
Grizz - not so much they regress as others are healthy again ie/ LAC & DEN who are actually better than them
Mavs - maaaybe but obviously Luka gets hurt and the season is a wrap lol

Hoop Heavy wrote:I'll go with regression for fully half of these teams ...

Nets, Sixers, Knicks, Bulls,
Hawks, Clippers, Portland, Lakers

partially for age and injury issues ... but more importantly too much drama distracting from the real task

Atlanta is a very odd inclusion. they already regressed quite a bit last year and made the play in. You think there’s a chance they don’t even make the play in this year? Keep in mind they just added a certified all star guard in the off season.

Yea very odd to even suggest there’s a chance they would regress this year.

skones wrote:Utah will find out that Gobert is a much larger part of their success than they realize. They will miss the playoffs altogether.

I'm pretty sure the Utah front office is well aware that their entire scheme was built around Gobert. That's probably why they asked for a bazillion picks in return. They know his value. They're basically rebuilding it all because they know they had reached the peak of what that particular team could accomplish.

It's also why they have Mitchell on the trade block, even though the urgency to trade him right now is lower than Gobert's because he's younger.

UcanUwill wrote:Looking at title odds, to me Los Angeles Clippers seem to be the most overrated. Also Boston, but Boston will be good, I just dont see them as best team.

The topic is related to regressing this season, not who is “overrated” by Vegas.

Anyway… I don’t see Memphis being as good. Teams now will be more prepared for them, and the Nuggets+Clippers could flat out be the best team in the conference. Combine that with the Lakers likely improving, Pelicans likely improving and they get moved down a few seeds.

shakes0 wrote:

Hoop Heavy wrote:I'll go with regression for fully half of these teams ...

Nets, Sixers, Knicks, Bulls,
Hawks, Clippers, Portland, Lakers

partially for age and injury issues ... but more importantly too much drama distracting from the real task

Atlanta is a very odd inclusion. they already regressed quite a bit last year and made the play in. You think there’s a chance they don’t even make the play in this year? Keep in mind they just added a certified all star guard in the off season.

Yea very odd to even suggest there’s a chance they would regress this year.

They lost two shooters in Gallo and Huerter. Plus, we have yet to see how Trae/Murray is going to work.

jbk1234 wrote:

shakes0 wrote:

Hoop Heavy wrote:I'll go with regression for fully half of these teams ...

Nets, Sixers, Knicks, Bulls,
Hawks, Clippers, Portland, Lakers

partially for age and injury issues ... but more importantly too much drama distracting from the real task

Atlanta is a very odd inclusion. they already regressed quite a bit last year and made the play in. You think there’s a chance they don’t even make the play in this year? Keep in mind they just added a certified all star guard in the off season.

Yea very odd to even suggest there’s a chance they would regress this year.

They lost two shooters in Gallo and Huerter. Plus, we have yet to see how Trae/Murray is going to work.

Yeah, lots of flash and style ... not so sure about the heart and the D. Anyway, I had seven teams but had already written "half" so I felt compelled to add one more ... did think of Charlotte and New Orleans.

With all three of those teams - like you say - you should be better to call it "regression" now .

Da bullz