RealGM

Once again, I am carrying the torch for Filthadelphia's annual Top 25 Player poll this offseason.

Your favorite offseason debate is back by popular demand!
Thanks to everyone who voted last go around I'm excited to see where the 5th annual edition ends up.

Here are the Rules:
-Vote ONE player per poll. You'll be able to change your vote just like in previous years so you can self-implement rank choice voting.
-The criteria of ranking the players is YOUR OWN. The whole point of bringing this to the GB is to attract the widest amount of votes/perspectives on the game as possible to form a true consensus. Some people value shooting over defense, team success over individual prowess etc. Filthadelphia wanted to bake all that into this poll set no matter how chaotic.
-Each poll a player will win and then be taken out of the field. There will be 25 polls in all.
-There are only 10 possible poll options so I will start with last year's Top 10.
-As each poll commences I ask you to COMMENT IN THE THREAD your vote for who should be added in the next poll. There will be a large list of players yet to be added to the field below that you can look over to make your vote. I will tally up the votes in the comments at the end of each poll and add the winner accordingly. For example, if you want Xavier Tillman added in the next poll just comment "Nominate: Xavier Tillman"
-If a poll is overwhelmingly skewed towards one guy I will try, time willing, to edit it early and move on to the next one.
-If there is a tie in the poll. There will be a run-off poll created with just the tying parties to determine a winner. The losers of the runoff will then be added back into the field of 10 for the next poll.
-Feel free to ask any questions via pm or comment
-Feel Free to comment on your reasoning for a pick and why
There may be days when I am not able to quickly add the next poll. Just be patient!

THANKS AGAIN TO EVERYONE FOR PARTICIPATING!!!!

Winner of Previous Poll: Zion Williamson (NOP)
Added to Poll: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)

RealGM Top 25 Players 2022-23:
1) Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) - 57%
2) Nikola Jokic (DEN) - 57%
3) Luka Doncic (DAL) - 43%
4) Steph Curry (GSW) - 49%
5) Joel Embiid (PHI) - 37%
6) Kevin Durant (BKN) - 40%
7) LeBron James (LAL) - 44%
8) Kawhi Leonard (LAC) - 46%
9) Jayson Tatum (BOS) - 51%
10) Jimmy Butler (MIA) - 53%
11) Ja Morant (MEM) - 23%
12) Anthony Davis (LAL) - 28%
13) Rudy Gobert (MIN) - 24%
14) Paul George (LAC) - 19% (Tiebreaker: 62%)
15) James Harden (PHI) - 23%
16) Devin Booker (PHX) - 27%
17) Damian Lillard (POR) - 34%
18) Trae Young (ATL) - 25%
19) Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) - 33%
20) Pascal Siakam (TOR) - 40%
21) Jaylen Brown (BOS) - 30%
22) Chris Paul (PHX) - 25%
23) Zion Williamson (NOP) - 27%

Yet To Be Added: (If someone is not here that you want here comment THAT and I will add them)
John Collins (ATL)
Dejounte Murray (ATL)
Ben Simmons (BKN)
Gordon Hayward (CHA)
LaMelo Ball (CHA)
Zach Lavine (CHI)
Jarrett Allen (CLE)
Evan Mobley (CLE)
Jamal Murray(DEN)
Cade Cunningham (DET)
Jaden Ivey (DET)
Klay Thompson (GSW)
Andrew Wiggins (GSW)
Jalen Green (HOU)
Jabari Smith (HOU)
Myles Turner (IND)
Tyrese Haliburton (IND)
John Wall (LAC)
Russell Westbrook (LAL)
Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM)
Desmond Bane (MEM)
Dillon Brooks (MEM)
Khris Middleton (MIL)
Jrue Holiday (MIL)
CJ McCollum (NOP)
R.J. Barrett (NYK)
Jalen Brunson (NYK)
Paolo Banchero (ORL)
Franz Wagner (ORL)
Wendell Carter (ORL)
Tobias Harris (PHI)
Tyrese Maxey (PHI)
DeAndre Ayton (PHX)
Mikal Bridges (PHX)
Jusuf Nurkic (POR)
Jerami Grant (POR)
De'Aaron Fox (SAC)
Domantas Sabonis (SAC)
Keegan Murray (SAC)
Fred VanVleet (TOR)
Scottie Barnes (TOR)
Collin Sexton (UTA)
Kristaps Porzingis (WAS)

Previous Results:

I get to be lazy and copy/paste:

Vote: Draymond Green. Draymond Green has as much defensive impact as Gobert. He's obviously not quite as good in the paint, but much more versatile. On offense, he's much better than what the 7/7/7 stats show. He's an offensive hub. He knows how to rn the offense, he knows where to be, and he sets the picks that make the whole thing work. I don't understand how Gobert is (rightfully) 13th but Dray is just now entering the conversation.

Nominate: Jrue Holiday. Of the Top 11 players using 538's RAPTOR metric, 10 have already secured their spot in the RealGM Top 25...ALL of them in the top 13 except for poor lonely Jrue.

Top 11 RAPTOR (RealGM Top 25 ranking)
1. Jokic (2nd)
2. Antetokounmpo (1st)
3. Embiid (5th)
4. Gobert (13th)
5. Curry (4th)
6. Doncic (3rd)
7. Butler (10th)
8. Tatum (9th)
9. Holiday (Where art thou?)
10. James (7th)
11. Durant (6th)

Vote: Bam
Nominate: Evan Mobley

V: Donovan
N: La Vine

Garland

Middleton

Voted Irving, but I won't mind if Bam or Green win here.

Donovan
Holiday

Vote Mitchell
Nominate Middleton

Voted: Irving

Nominate: Sabonis

Vote Garland.

Nominate Holiday.

yoyoboy wrote:Vote Garland.

Nominate Holiday.

My man, you've also got to push the button. There's one Garland vote there and it's mine.

Almost at the end here, just wanted to give a shout out to ElectricMayhem for doing this again

Nominate LaVine

To the people voting Mitchell over Garland, which lineups do you expect to perform better this year: the Mitchell without Garland ones or the Garland without Mitchell ones? I think it’ll be pretty Garland and I think in general DG will prove himself to be the more impactful player overall. He’s a more solid defender, a much better playmaker, moves better off the ball, and less likely to shoot you out of a game with poor shot selection.

The noms dont really matter at this point since there's only one more spot to fill. So with that said, nominate Rob Williams. Yolo.

Vote: Bam
Nom: Jrue

The 24-year0old defensive anchor of a top 5 defense last year while averaging 19 and 10. I still think he has room to grow on offense by developing his skill set further. He's shown flashes of shooting and passing. He averaged over 5 assists per game 2 seasons in a row before last season. He was a good midrange shooter 2 years ago. I think Bam had a down year and knowing what a hard worker he is, he's going to bounce back and put it all together in time to hit his prime. The Heat ran him ragged as a switcher this year, and I think they leaned on that a bit too much. Bam still absolutely bullies smaller or slower players. He needs that skillset to still make an impact on offense when he's going up against guys like Giannis or Embiid. He's still the premier switching 5 in the NBA and that is a crazy valuable asset.

Last player nominated needs to be a Buck. I went Jrue but feel Middleton should be on this list too. Whoever voted Derozan in, congratulations on your achievement.

Looking at the player ranking in this project, I feel the tiers are:

Tier 1: Top 5 players
Tier 2: 6-11 (fighting to stay in the top 10 or get into the top 5 with a big season)
Tier 3: 12-19 (top 20 locks)
Tier 4: 20-30 (fighting to be top 20 locks)

Is it me or is Brandon Ingram starting to get really underrated? He was balling for the pelicans especially late in the season. He looked unstoppable at times against the Suns in the first round. He’s right there with Brown and Siakam. Personally don’t see how Bam should be ranked higher imo.

yoyoboy wrote:To the people voting Mitchell over Garland, which lineups do you expect to perform better this year: the Mitchell without Garland ones or the Garland without Mitchell ones? I think it’ll be pretty Garland and I think in general DG will prove himself to be the more impactful player overall. He’s a more solid defender, a much better playmaker, moves better off the ball, and less likely to shoot you out of a game with poor shot selection.

I think only one of these things is true, he's a better playmaker. Donovan *can* be a solid defender when he is locked in, he is an incredible athlete and plays passing lanes pretty well. He is also more physical defensively than Garland. Mitchell also moves well off-ball, especially earlier in his career we had a ton of packages to spring him open at the rim, but the same is true of his off-ball shooting. RE: shot selection, Mitchell has an above-league average TS% (but barely) on extremely high volume, and I disagree that him shooting a team out of games is something that regularly (if really ever) happens. He's also a pretty good playmaker, but obviously Garland has an advantage there. I would be mildly surprised if Mitchell wasn't the most impactful guard on Cleveland's roster.

babyjax13 wrote:

yoyoboy wrote:To the people voting Mitchell over Garland, which lineups do you expect to perform better this year: the Mitchell without Garland ones or the Garland without Mitchell ones? I think it’ll be pretty Garland and I think in general DG will prove himself to be the more impactful player overall. He’s a more solid defender, a much better playmaker, moves better off the ball, and less likely to shoot you out of a game with poor shot selection.

I think only one of these things is true, he's a better playmaker. Donovan *can* be a solid defender when he is locked in, he is an incredible athlete and plays passing lanes pretty well. He is also more physical defensively than Garland. Mitchell also moves well off-ball, especially earlier in his career we had a ton of packages to spring him open at the rim, but the same is true of his off-ball shooting. RE: shot selection, Mitchell has an above-league average TS% (but barely) on extremely high volume, and I disagree that him shooting a team out of games is something that regularly (if really ever) happens. He's also a pretty good playmaker, but obviously Garland has an advantage there. I would be mildly surprised if Mitchell wasn't the most impactful guard on Cleveland's roster.

I appreciate the insight from a Jazz fan, but whether he *can* hardly matters, right? He’s had the best defender in the league behind him (along with a great coach) his whole career and it still didn’t get him to play hard on defense, so we can only take him based on how he’s played. He’s just not good at all at defending penetration. Garland has worse physical tools but he’s smart, doesn’t make many mistakes, and he tries hard, which is why his advanced defensive metrics actually look good. RAPM paints him as a clear positive, whereas Mitchell ranks in the 1st percentile in 3-year Defensive RAPM. 765/775 in standard D-RAPM and 767/775 in Luck-Adjusted D-RAPM. It’s not an exaggeration to say Donovan is one of the very worst defenders in the league.

Offensively I do agree with you that Mitchell is actually pretty good off the ball and probably has even more potential to be unlocked there than he’s shown, but Garland has a real knack for it (especially for his age) that puts him ahead. From what I’ve seen of both, DG is more active in trying to come off screens, pin downs, and such, and I think while Mitchell is obviously a great 3P shooter, Garland is better. Also I have an inkling his cardio is better than Mitchell’s which is probably part of the issue for Donovan on the defensive end, as well. Mitchell seems to have gained some mass after his first couple years, which has helped him bully his way to the rim more than he used to, but imo might be why he’s not as good of a defender as he was his first two years. You can see he’s not quite as explosive at the rim as he used to be either - though the improved 3P shooting has obviously made up for it. I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on that.

Finally I think Mitchell is maybe a bit underrated as a playmaker among the general consensus. He can be a very impressive kick out passer to shooters. But he leaves a lot to be desired in terms of finding guys inside. Garland is the whole package in terms of playmaking. Overall, I would peg Garland as a guy I expect to fall in the top 20-25 range of the league in terms of on-court value this season, whereas Mitchell to me hovers somewhere in the 40-50 range. Garland’s advantages in multiple key areas allow him to provide more impact by comparison than Mitchell’s superior volume scoring on efficiency that’s slightly worse than Garland’s anyways.