2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread

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Which 3 rookies impress you the most?

Paolo Banchero
210
35%
Bennedict Mathurin
159
26%
Keegan Murray
44
7%
Jaden Ivey
68
11%
Jabari Smith
6
1%
Jalen Duren
18
3%
Shaedon Sharpe
34
6%
Jeremy Sochan
18
3%
Tari Eason
14
2%
Other
36
6%
 
Total votes: 607

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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1081 » by Mr Peanut » Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:47 pm

76ciology wrote:
Mr Peanut wrote:
76ciology wrote:
How does Duren has a higher offense floor? Williams has better pts per 36 and shows more promise as a shooter.

And defensively, Williams projects to be an elite rim protector, elite in deflections and elite rebounder.

I know how impressive Duren’s physique and athleticism is. But Mark Williams’ got elite length (he’s got a longer standing reach than Bol bol) and has great mobility and athleticism for his size.


You're actually quoting points per 36 for a guy playing 13 minutes per game against predominantly backups? That's bold.


He’s not playing against back-ups recently. He played when Sengun, Okongwu/Capela (both started) and Kessler/Vando (both started) were on the floor in his last 3 games where he averaged 12ppg 4.7rpg 1.7spg and 2.7bpg

Both guys are averaging almost the same number of points despite Mark Williams playing almost half Duren’s minutes.

Duren’s only edge is his superb rebounding. Mark Williams has the edge on rim protection/blks, steals and pts.

Mark Williams has been better than Duren, until proven otherwise which is not impossible.

Im not a Hornets fan. So you can also count me out for being bias.


OK, so he is logging some minutes against starters. Doesn't change the fact that the stats you're deriving are from a fairly limited sample size. He's only played in 17 games and a total of 237 minutes. That's less than a quarter of total minutes than Duren has played this season.

The PPG argument is somewhat irrelevant - Duren is playing the majority of his minutes with starters (i.e. greater offensive talents who require more touches/shots) whereas Williams is playing with the bench where he can throw up a shot to his heart's content. A prime example of this type of misleading stat is Alec Burks on the Pistons bench averaging 13 ppg in 22 mins. If we started him and he played 36 minutes I doubt those numbers extrapolate out to him now scoring 22 ppg where his role and shot attempts would be quite different.

I'm not saying Williams hasn't played well in his limited minutes. But Duren has clearly had the better rookie season, and mine isn't a singular opinion. That is reflected in both the media rookie rankings and will be clear when the All-Rookie teams are released at the end of the season.

All of this while being mindful of the fact that Duren is a full two years younger than Williams.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1082 » by bstein14 » Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:48 pm

I am a Pistons fan but also think Mark Williams has played will in the minutes he has been given in Charlotte.... With the tank on in Charlotte I'm not sure why they aren't playing him even more. Hopefully we'll get to see a lot of Mark and Duren both in the 2nd half of the season. I think these guys will both end up being decent starters by next year(16 to 20 range for starting centers) Duren's age obviously helps him a bit as far as upside goes, but Williams does have an insane wingspan and standing reach. Both of these guys are more mobile than many traditional style centers and that will go a long way in their ability to be impact players at this level.

Honestly, whichever one of these two gets paired with VW next year might have the advantage of playing next to an elite talent and end up better offensively because of it. That said, whichever one gets paired with VW might also get hurt a bit on rebounds since they'll be playing with another big who rebounds so well.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1083 » by City of Trees » Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:01 pm

In the month of January, Keegan Murray is averaging 14.4pts/ 5.8reb/ 1.2ast while shooting 52/51/93, ts% 71. Kings have gone 8-4 and are 3rd in the West.

You can tell a light has gone off for Keegan, who has now posted two double double's in the last 5 games. He's turning it up.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1084 » by Duke4life831 » Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:47 pm

Want to give my guy AJ Griffin a little love. Over his last 20 games

9/2/1 on 56/51/100 (only 4 FTs in this time) shooting (69 TS%) in 21 mpg.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1085 » by thelead » Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:31 am

Mathurin looked great in the 4th quarter tonight. That kid is really good.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1086 » by 76ciology » Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:44 am

City of Trees wrote:In the month of January, Keegan Murray is averaging 14.4pts/ 5.8reb/ 1.2ast while shooting 52/51/93, ts% 71. Kings have gone 8-4 and are 3rd in the West.

You can tell a light has gone off for Keegan, who has now posted two double double's in the last 5 games. He's turning it up.


Big fan of Keegan. I had Keegan and Kessler as my two sleeper picks this draft.

May I know what lead to his struggles earlier in the season?
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1087 » by thelead » Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:25 am

76ciology wrote:
City of Trees wrote:In the month of January, Keegan Murray is averaging 14.4pts/ 5.8reb/ 1.2ast while shooting 52/51/93, ts% 71. Kings have gone 8-4 and are 3rd in the West.

You can tell a light has gone off for Keegan, who has now posted two double double's in the last 5 games. He's turning it up.


Big fan of Keegan. I had Keegan and Kessler as my two sleeper picks this draft.

May I know what lead to his struggles earlier in the season?

Keegan was dealing with personal issues (death of a family member) right after his good start.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1088 » by 76ciology » Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:38 am

thelead wrote:
76ciology wrote:
City of Trees wrote:In the month of January, Keegan Murray is averaging 14.4pts/ 5.8reb/ 1.2ast while shooting 52/51/93, ts% 71. Kings have gone 8-4 and are 3rd in the West.

You can tell a light has gone off for Keegan, who has now posted two double double's in the last 5 games. He's turning it up.


Big fan of Keegan. I had Keegan and Kessler as my two sleeper picks this draft.

May I know what lead to his struggles earlier in the season?

Keegan was dealing with personal issues (death of a family member) right after his good start.


Oh that explains it
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1089 » by mcmurphy » Wed Jan 25, 2023 3:39 pm

I would like to point out that Utah has finally begun to give minutes on the court continuously to Agbaji (actually I was hoping for Fontecchio being Italian but anyway).

before 05 January 17 games 8mpg

since 05 January 10 games 21mpg (2nd from the bench after Sexton)

6.7ppg, 2.5reb, 0.9ast (fg% 0.595, 3p% 0.542, ts% 0.758)

more important in these 10 games has been a dog in defense... I very liked his defence... reminds me of a rookie Jimmy Butler

the eye test is confirmed by DefRtg (-7 point compared to avg team) and from defence dashboard
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1090 » by mcmurphy » Wed Jan 25, 2023 6:55 pm

mcmurphy wrote:in the rookie ladder on nba.com they begin to notice Kessler too

https://www.nba.com/news/kia-rookie-ladder-jan-18-2023-edition


ops, now is in the top3 ;-)

https://www.nba.com/news/kia-rookie-ladder-jan-25-2023-edition
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1091 » by City of Trees » Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:58 pm

76ciology wrote:
thelead wrote:
76ciology wrote:
Big fan of Keegan. I had Keegan and Kessler as my two sleeper picks this draft.

May I know what lead to his struggles earlier in the season?

Keegan was dealing with personal issues (death of a family member) right after his good start.


Oh that explains it
Plus the mysterious thumb injury that's been present for over 1.5 months now. The bandage looks identical to the one Sabonis wears for his thumb fracture. There was never an official release on the injury and Keegan doesn't talk about it but he did say he can't palm the ball because of the injury.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1092 » by City of Trees » Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:03 pm

76ciology wrote:
City of Trees wrote:In the month of January, Keegan Murray is averaging 14.4pts/ 5.8reb/ 1.2ast while shooting 52/51/93, ts% 71. Kings have gone 8-4 and are 3rd in the West.

You can tell a light has gone off for Keegan, who has now posted two double double's in the last 5 games. He's turning it up.


Big fan of Keegan. I had Keegan and Kessler as my two sleeper picks this draft.

May I know what lead to his struggles earlier in the season?


Kessler is so good. Kessler and Jalen Williams command some attention.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1093 » by HotelVitale » Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:41 pm

76ciology wrote:
City of Trees wrote:In the month of January, Keegan Murray is averaging 14.4pts/ 5.8reb/ 1.2ast while shooting 52/51/93, ts% 71. Kings have gone 8-4 and are 3rd in the West.

You can tell a light has gone off for Keegan, who has now posted two double double's in the last 5 games. He's turning it up.


Big fan of Keegan. I had Keegan and Kessler as my two sleeper picks this draft. May I know what lead to his struggles earlier in the season?


He looks pretty perfect on the Kings, like he’s been there for years. I could see him developing a really good midrange shot and upping his ceiling, be interesting to see what his volume can be when he’s not creating for himself almost at all (besides close outs).

(Also can a consensus top 5-6 player really be a ‘sleeper’?)
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1094 » by Vampirate » Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:49 pm

Mr Peanut wrote:
76ciology wrote:
Mr Peanut wrote:
You're actually quoting points per 36 for a guy playing 13 minutes per game against predominantly backups? That's bold.


He’s not playing against back-ups recently. He played when Sengun, Okongwu/Capela (both started) and Kessler/Vando (both started) were on the floor in his last 3 games where he averaged 12ppg 4.7rpg 1.7spg and 2.7bpg

Both guys are averaging almost the same number of points despite Mark Williams playing almost half Duren’s minutes.

Duren’s only edge is his superb rebounding. Mark Williams has the edge on rim protection/blks, steals and pts.

Mark Williams has been better than Duren, until proven otherwise which is not impossible.

Im not a Hornets fan. So you can also count me out for being bias.


OK, so he is logging some minutes against starters. Doesn't change the fact that the stats you're deriving are from a fairly limited sample size. He's only played in 17 games and a total of 237 minutes. That's less than a quarter of total minutes than Duren has played this season.

The PPG argument is somewhat irrelevant - Duren is playing the majority of his minutes with starters (i.e. greater offensive talents who require more touches/shots) whereas Williams is playing with the bench where he can throw up a shot to his heart's content. A prime example of this type of misleading stat is Alec Burks on the Pistons bench averaging 13 ppg in 22 mins. If we started him and he played 36 minutes I doubt those numbers extrapolate out to him now scoring 22 ppg where his role and shot attempts would be quite different.

I'm not saying Williams hasn't played well in his limited minutes. But Duren has clearly had the better rookie season, and mine isn't a singular opinion. That is reflected in both the media rookie rankings and will be clear when the All-Rookie teams are released at the end of the season.

All of this while being mindful of the fact that Duren is a full two years younger than Williams.


Were bound to have many arguments about cade vs Barnes but i'll defend Duren here.

76ciology, you do know Mark is basically a black hole in his offense. He's very 1 dimensional. The guy averages 0.3 assists and 0.8 Turnovers. You can't look at offense while completely ignoring a players ability to play make or pass. Duren isn't a top quality playmaker either but he's averaging 1 assist and 1.2 Turnovers.

I understand that assists can be misleading, however if you basically never record an assist in your games it does speak to your limitations as an offensive player.

Edit: Also I forgot, offensive rebounding, meaning an extra possession on a team miss, Duren easily beats Mark here as well.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1095 » by Adrian Street » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:45 am

thelead wrote:Mathurin looked great in the 4th quarter tonight. That kid is really good.



Loved watching Banchero and Mathurin go head to head tonight. Already two of my favorite players
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1096 » by jayu70 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:01 pm

Duke4life831 wrote:Want to give my guy AJ Griffin a little love. Over his last 20 games

9/2/1 on 56/51/100 (only 4 FTs in this time) shooting (69 TS%) in 21 mpg.


Read on Twitter
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1097 » by Dadouv47 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:55 pm

Read on Twitter


This guy deserves more attention. I wouldn't pick him higher than 6 or 7 in a redraft because of ceiling but he's definitely a top 3 or top 4 rookie of the year.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1098 » by tooler » Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:40 pm

Dadouv47 wrote:This guy deserves more attention.

Same thing applies every time this is mentioned -- if you want your rookie to get more attention, post it up and talk about him! We usually only hear about him when he has a good game.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1099 » by basketballRob » Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:48 pm

I still have Griffin as a top 5 rookie I've seen this season.

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Re: 2022-23 NBA Rookie Discussion Thread 

Post#1100 » by Dadouv47 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:55 pm

tooler wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:This guy deserves more attention.

Same thing applies every time this is mentioned -- if you want your rookie to get more attention, post it up and talk about him! We usually only hear about him when he has a good game.


Well he's very consistent...wouldn't be third on last ROY ranking if not. I think most people are sleeping on him because talks about OKC season has been mostly about SGA, our team don't get much attention which is fine and Jalen isn't a sexy talent like Ivey or Sharpe.

Last night was likely his best game of the season but he's playing very well since day 1. He's scareless and can do everything on both sides of the floor but need to improve his 3 pt% to reach next level. He's a smart kid and I think he will have a great NBA career...not superstar talent but can be an elite 3rd or 4th option for us in the next 7-8 seasons.

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