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toooskies wrote:

jasonxxx102 wrote:Franz on the court has a -0.3 net rating (not very impressive) but his on/off is a 10.4 net rating which is 92nd percentile in the league.

You know why? Well it should be obvious.

He’s not blowing away teams when he’s on the court (against other starts primarily) but when he’s off the court the magic are getting blown out because they have no talent.

In comparison Mobley is +1.7 on but on/off is -7.1. For the exact opposite reason

Mobley's on/off is horribly skewed by opponent 3-point percentage luck. It's a textbook case of why on/off isn't stable in small samples.

Edit: for reference...

Read on Twitter

SO anecdotally I can remember a handful of games where the other team was just hitting every single 3, contested or not.

Here are some 3p% for games against the cavs

54%, 54%, 49%, 61%, 60%, 51%

btw this is only going back to the end of december.

The Cavs give up the 3rd least amount of "wide open" 3s, and middle of the road for "open" 3s but opponents are top 10 in shooting% against for both categories.

Cavs are in the top 10 for amount of contested 3s and opponents are still shooting the lights out, points above league average.

The Cavs have had incredibly bad 3pt shooting luck against them this season.

Plenty of 3rd options rank really high in advanced stats. Nic Claxton has WAY better advanced stats than Mobley.

Clayton is neck and neck with Franz. Mobley is way down in the 200's.



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basketballRob wrote:Plenty of 3rd options rank really high in advanced stats. Nic Claxton has WAY better advanced stats than Mobley.

Clayton is neck and neck with Franz. Mobley is way down in the 200's.



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I strongly recommend you stop relying on advanced stats to make your arguments for you if you’re not even going to put any effort in to understand them.

Green has regressed this year and he wasn't that good to begin with.

Rockets really blundered that #2 pick last year! He's not a bust but he is JUST A GUY

basketballRob wrote:

Funny enough, Ben from Thinking Basketball just dropped a video less than half an hour ago about the misleading advanced metrics from Mobley this year resulting from really unlucky opponent 3P shooting luck. As well as his stagnant box-score slash line resulting from just being a lesser option than he was last year without Mitchell in the fold.



And this is why you shouldn’t just toss out a bunch of impact metrics if you’re not going to apply any context or put the effort into understanding what they mean.

v1n5anity wrote:Jalen Green isn’t even top 5 in this draft. He’s overrated on these boards. In no particular order, it would be:

- Barnes
- Mobley
- Cade
- Wagner
- Giddey

Wagner
Sengun
Giddey
Mobley
Barnes

Wagner
Mobley
Cade
Barnes
Green

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basketballRob wrote:Wagner
Mobley
Cade
Barnes
Green

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BTW, every time I watch Barnes, he reminds me of Magic Johnson.

However, it is Magic Johnson without the fierce competitive motivation.

If he ever gets highly motivated, I reserve the right to change the order.

AaronB wrote:

basketballRob wrote:Wagner
Mobley
Cade
Barnes
Green

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BTW, every time I watch Barnes, he reminds me of Magic Johnson.

However, it is Magic Johnson without the fierce competitive motivation.

If he ever gets highly motivated, I reserve the right to change the order.

He looks closer to Lamar Odom than Magic Johnson. Still a good player.

Barnes will probably have some seasons where he averages 18/10/5 with some triple doubles. Odom's best season was 17/10/4.

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AaronB wrote:

basketballRob wrote:Wagner
Mobley
Cade
Barnes
Green

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BTW, every time I watch Barnes, he reminds me of Magic Johnson.

However, it is Magic Johnson without the fierce competitive motivation.

If he ever gets highly motivated, I reserve the right to change the order.

I think the motivational thing is way out of context. Teams were defending him differently and he was struggling like crazy.

He seems to be putting things together over the last 30 days on both ends. He's putting up 18/8/5 with over 1 steal and 1 block a game on solid efficiency. It's even better over the past two weeks. He has so much room to grow on both ends so it's still impressive he's able to put up these numbers without a tight handle and a reliable jumper.

Mobley
Giddey
Cade
Wagner
Barnes

Amusing stat of the day: both Mobley and Franz have exactly .600 TS% at this moment in time.

Yeezus_ wrote:

AaronB wrote:

basketballRob wrote:Wagner
Mobley
Cade
Barnes
Green

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BTW, every time I watch Barnes, he reminds me of Magic Johnson.

However, it is Magic Johnson without the fierce competitive motivation.

If he ever gets highly motivated, I reserve the right to change the order.

I think the motivational thing is way out of context. Teams were defending him differently and he was struggling like crazy.

He seems to be putting things together over the last 30 days on both ends. He's putting up 18/8/5 with over 1 steal and 1 block a game on solid efficiency. It's even better over the past two weeks. He has so much room to grow on both ends so it's still impressive he's able to put up these numbers without a tight handle and a reliable jumper.

Maybe "motivated" is not the best word.

The example I would use is that if 20-year-old Magic had FVV demanding the ball to be the play maker, Magic's competitive nature would not have allowed that, even if his coach insisted on it.

Magic had it from birth.

AaronB wrote:

Yeezus_ wrote:

AaronB wrote:
BTW, every time I watch Barnes, he reminds me of Magic Johnson.

However, it is Magic Johnson without the fierce competitive motivation.

If he ever gets highly motivated, I reserve the right to change the order.

I think the motivational thing is way out of context. Teams were defending him differently and he was struggling like crazy.

He seems to be putting things together over the last 30 days on both ends. He's putting up 18/8/5 with over 1 steal and 1 block a game on solid efficiency. It's even better over the past two weeks. He has so much room to grow on both ends so it's still impressive he's able to put up these numbers without a tight handle and a reliable jumper.

Maybe "motivated" is not the best word.

The example I would use is that if 20-year-old Magic had FVV demanding the ball to be the play maker, Magic's competitive nature would not have allowed that, even if his coach insisted on it.

Magic had it from birth.

Magic only had to compete with Norm Nixon for playmaking duties. Scottie has to compete with Fred and Pascal. Magic didn't start averaging double digit assists until Norm went to San Diego.

I'm very excited that Scottie has started playing better. There are still some games where he takes time to ramp up, especially when teams defend him with their center and sometimes just leave him open. He needs to look to be more aggressive in those situations rather than just be a play maker.

My updated rankings:
- Mobley (just needs to improve that 3 point shot)
- Franz (steady as a rock)
- Barnes
- Giddey
- Cade
- Sengun (could be a Sabonis level player which is great for where he was drafted)
- Green (not my favourite type of player but it's hard to judge anyone on that mess of a roster)

We're not really comparing Barnes to Magic are we? This is pretty outrageous even for RGM

1. Scottie
2. Mobley
3. Giddey
4. Franz

Franz is having the best season on paper, but I'd still take some of the other guys ahead of him based on my assessment of their ceilings. But these 4 have separated themselves from the rest of the pack. We'll see how Cade looks when he comes back too. That doesn't mean the other guys are busts yet, but these 4 will all have productive NBA careers at the very least. For the others, it's more up in the air.

jasonxxx102 wrote:We're not really comparing Barnes to Magic are we? This is pretty outrageous even for RGM

He's got a lot of Magic in his game. There are definitely more similarities than differences.

jasonxxx102 wrote:We're not really comparing Barnes to Magic are we? This is pretty outrageous even for RGM

"We're not really comparing Luka to Bird, are we?"

Every great started their career as a nobody. A comparison doesn't mean they'll match the career of the player they're being compared to. It means there are similarities in their games.

AaronB wrote:Maybe "motivated" is not the best word.

The example I would use is that if 20-year-old Magic had FVV demanding the ball to be the play maker, Magic's competitive nature would not have allowed that, even if his coach insisted on it.

Magic had it from birth.

Scottie is a lot more motivated in the 4th quarter, which, on a lot of nights, is where he does most of his scoring. This is when guys like Pascal and FVV disappear and he has a chance to call his own number. And it shows in his clutch stats, and meets the eye test too (if you watch Raptors games regularly, you'll notice he's super comfortable and engaged at the ends of games).



I agree that he needs to be more assertive throughout the entire game though. But I think that'll come with age.