DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023

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Who's on your DPOY ballot? (Pick 3. Change your vote whenever. Last poll reset Jan 22.)

Brook Lopez
17
12%
Bam Adebayo
11
8%
Jarrett Allen
2
1%
Giannis Antetokounmpo
16
11%
Jaren Jackson Jr.
34
23%
Nic Claxton
22
15%
Evan Mobley
5
3%
Joel Embiid
14
10%
Draymond Green
5
3%
Other
20
14%
 
Total votes: 146

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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#241 » by lobosloboslobos » Fri Jan 6, 2023 11:51 pm

MartyConlonJr wrote:
lobosloboslobos wrote:I'm not disagreeing with your conclusions but context helps too. As shown above OG has the hardest defensive assignments in the league, and mostly only rests when the star he is guarding is off the floor. So it's not that surprising that the difference (-2.2 Drtg in/out) between him defending Durant or Giannis or Ja or Luka or Harden on the floor and them being both off the floor is not that big. His impact is the difference he makes when he is on the floor and generally keeping those guys well below their season averages. Just saying.


Are you saying the other top contenders for DPOY are not doing this? Either not being put on the other teams best offensive player or playing bench players?


I'm saying that according to that tweet above - if you click it - OG is in the 99th percentile in matchup difficulty in the league as a defender. That is as high as you can get. And when you combine that with the fact he is also the most versatile defender in the league it shows that on any given night he defends superstars as physically different as Giannis or Embiid or CP3 or Ja or whoever the best offensive player on the other team is regardless of what size they are or what position they play. And sure while there are other guys who do that to some degree, the stats show that nobody does it like OG does. Which makes that 21% shooting average against him in iso all the more sick.

also what cupcakesnake said.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#242 » by DaGawd » Sat Jan 7, 2023 2:49 pm

mitchell robinson needs more mentions
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#243 » by BAMAFREAK » Tue Jan 10, 2023 3:28 am

Again, JJJ. All other answers are wrong. He’s an absolute eraser
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#244 » by Sphynx » Tue Jan 10, 2023 8:07 am

This probably belongs in here and I imagine he’s going to be a contender for this for a very long time.

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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#245 » by Rastas » Wed Jan 11, 2023 7:26 am

Daniels added to Josh Green , Thybulle and Simmons - good luck getting a good shot off against Australia.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#246 » by blargh » Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:00 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:
Exp0sed wrote:
Kurtz wrote:
He's overtaken Lopez as the Vegas favourite for the award now. But how many more games can he afford to miss - can you really give it to a guy who misses say a quarter of the season?


yes, you can
this isn't MVP

I think it's a very natural narrative as well, not like he's in and out of the lineup
He was expected to be a strong DPOY candidate, arguably should have won it last season as well
he underwent an offseason surgery, recovery went well into the start of the season - fine

but bottom line, since the moment he stepped back on the court he's been dominating defensively and leading his team to impressive defence

I think he's well ahead tbh, assuming he plays for the rest of the season (i don't mean every game, just that he doesn't miss any more substantial time)


I've probably said this before in this thread but it's worth repeating:
DPOY has been won with under 65 games 4 times in the last 11 seasons. That's a lot. Gobert won it with 56 in 2018. Kawhi, Giannis, and Tyson Chandler are the other ones. Tyson and Giannis were in slightly shortened seasons, but Kawhi and Gobert's were in full 82 game seasons.


My problem with JJJ’s case now isn’t games played, it’s minutes per game. It’s hard to see how he has more defensive impact than other contenders if he’s playing 26 mpg. If he works that number up (it is trending up this month), then he’s the frontrunner. If he can’t stay on the floor because of his high foul rate, that should obviously count against him. There are a lot of DPOY contenders who could list better per-minute, per-possession, or net-rating defensive stats if they didn’t have to play less aggressive to be available on offense (Giannis, Adebayo, Embiid)
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#247 » by Exp0sed » Thu Jan 12, 2023 3:09 pm

Exp0sed wrote:


My problem with JJJ’s case now isn’t games played, it’s minutes per game. It’s hard to see how he has more defensive impact than other contenders if he’s playing 26 mpg. If he works that number up (it is trending up this month), then he’s the frontrunner. If he can’t stay on the floor because of his high foul rate, that should obviously count against him. There are a lot of DPOY contenders who could list better per-minute, per-possession, or net-rating defensive stats if they didn’t have to play less aggressive to be available on offense (Giannis, Adebayo, Embiid)


comparing JJJ to Giannis or Embiid is apples and oranges

would those guys be better defensively if they weren't also the focal point of their team's offense? offcourse
I would venture to say they would be dramtically better, but that's not relevant to whose the DPOY

that includes being too worried about fouling because their team needs them on the floor (that's true about guys that aren't DPOY candidates but still would be better defenders if they could afford to foul like JJJ like Jokic and Doncic, especially Jokic) or just having less energy to exert on that end because of the heavy load they're carrying offensively

we compare the players by the defense they are actually playing and their role, not based on hypotheticals

personally I think he is way ahead of everyone else per min, so him playing 27 mins isn't a big deal
his impact is tremendous on that end, even in 10% less mins he is doing enough to be ahead

he's actually blocking considerably more shots AND taking more rebounds while committing fewer fouls relative to last season

He is the player to beat imo, in this race
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#248 » by blargh » Thu Jan 12, 2023 5:01 pm

Exp0sed wrote:comparing JJJ to Giannis or Embiid is apples and oranges

would those guys be better defensively if they weren't also the focal point of their team's offense? offcourse
I would venture to say they would be dramtically better, but that's not relevant to whose the DPOY

that includes being too worried about fouling because their team needs them on the floor (that's true about guys that aren't DPOY candidates but still would be better defenders if they could afford to foul like JJJ like Jokic and Doncic, especially Jokic) or just having less energy to exert on that end because of the heavy load they're carrying offensively

we compare the players by the defense they are actually playing and their role, not based on hypotheticals

personally I think he is way ahead of everyone else per min, so him playing 27 mins isn't a big deal
his impact is tremendous on that end, even in 10% less mins he is doing enough to be ahead

he's actually blocking considerably more shots AND taking more rebounds while committing fewer fouls relative to last season

He is the player to beat imo, in this race


Embiid and Giannis are averaging 33mpg, Adebayo is averaging 35 mpg. JJJ isn’t averaging 10% less minutes, he’s averaging 20-25% less minutes.

The point about not fouling is that there are different ways to have impactful defense. Not chasing blocks while still providing rim protection and staying on the floor longer can still be as valuable to the team defense, especially if you account for the negative value of the free throw points from fouls.

Again, i think it’s possible that JJJ will end the season with the strongest case, but i’m reserving judgement till his minutes go up
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#249 » by cupcakesnake » Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:44 pm

blargh wrote:
Exp0sed wrote:comparing JJJ to Giannis or Embiid is apples and oranges

would those guys be better defensively if they weren't also the focal point of their team's offense? offcourse
I would venture to say they would be dramtically better, but that's not relevant to whose the DPOY

that includes being too worried about fouling because their team needs them on the floor (that's true about guys that aren't DPOY candidates but still would be better defenders if they could afford to foul like JJJ like Jokic and Doncic, especially Jokic) or just having less energy to exert on that end because of the heavy load they're carrying offensively

we compare the players by the defense they are actually playing and their role, not based on hypotheticals

personally I think he is way ahead of everyone else per min, so him playing 27 mins isn't a big deal
his impact is tremendous on that end, even in 10% less mins he is doing enough to be ahead

he's actually blocking considerably more shots AND taking more rebounds while committing fewer fouls relative to last season

He is the player to beat imo, in this race


Embiid and Giannis are averaging 33mpg, Adebayo is averaging 35 mpg. JJJ isn’t averaging 10% less minutes, he’s averaging 20-25% less minutes.

The point about not fouling is that there are different ways to have impactful defense. Not chasing blocks while still providing rim protection and staying on the floor longer can still be as valuable to the team defense, especially if you account for the negative value of the free throw points from fouls.

Again, i think it’s possible that JJJ will end the season with the strongest case, but i’m reserving judgement till his minutes go up


The foul thing is an old narrative. Trip doesn't foul like he used to. His current foul rate (5.5 per 100) is similar to Giannis. In past seasons, Trip's foul rate was over 7 per 100!

Now he's still a super aggressive shot blocker, but so far this season the results are undeniable. His block rate is way up (career-high 5.8 per 100). This is a major development because we're talking about someone who has a higher career foul rate (6.5 per 100) than a block rate (3.5 per 100). If Jackson keeps this up, regardless of minutes per game, this is a historic defensive season from a rim protector. His current block percentage of 11% is the highest ever recorded. He has to keep that up over the season obviously, but I just want to make it clear what we're talking about with Jackson.

Blocks aren't everything, but this historical outlier should put the league on notice, and looking at his minutes per game right now feels like quibbling considering he's the NBA in blocks per game by a country mile.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#250 » by yoyoboy » Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:47 pm

Mobley was absolutely stellar on defense in the 4th quarter against the Jazz a couple nights ago, with Allen leaving the game due to illness. Maybe the most I’ve ever seen him take over on that end, having to cover for so many weak links on defense with the team’s best defenders in Allen, Okoro, Wade, and Rubio (who should return tonight!) all out. It’s a shame we couldn’t get the dub to validate the performance. And people will continue to have the impression that Mobley is just along for the ride with Allen doing all the heavy lifting defensively.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#251 » by Dacost » Fri Jan 13, 2023 11:23 am

I don't get why minutes are an issue I actually thing is a positive to be able to impact the game on 10m less then the other guys.

That minutes thing is been use by alot of betting guys who don't really provided the whole story.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#252 » by nikster » Fri Jan 13, 2023 3:05 pm

Dacost wrote:I don't get why minutes are an issue I actually thing is a positive to be able to impact the game on 10m less then the other guys.

That minutes thing is been use by alot of betting guys who don't really provided the whole story.

Availability is important for all awards. JJJ has like half the minutes Lopez and Giannis do for example. That's a pretty large gap
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#253 » by Dacost » Fri Jan 13, 2023 4:56 pm

nikster wrote:
Dacost wrote:I don't get why minutes are an issue I actually thing is a positive to be able to impact the game on 10m less then the other guys.

That minutes thing is been use by alot of betting guys who don't really provided the whole story.

Availability is important for all awards. JJJ has like half the minutes Lopez and Giannis do for example. That's a pretty large gap
yet Jackson has 81 blocks to lopez league leading 103 with just half the minutes.

I understand games played matter but minutes don't in my opinion.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#254 » by ForeverTFC » Sat Jan 14, 2023 4:33 am

Dacost wrote:
nikster wrote:
Dacost wrote:I don't get why minutes are an issue I actually thing is a positive to be able to impact the game on 10m less then the other guys.

That minutes thing is been use by alot of betting guys who don't really provided the whole story.

Availability is important for all awards. JJJ has like half the minutes Lopez and Giannis do for example. That's a pretty large gap
yet Jackson has 81 blocks to lopez league leading 103 with just half the minutes.

I understand games played matter but minutes don't in my opinion.


I think JJJ is the best defensive player in the league, but I totally understand the minutes argument. He's not sitting because they're blowing teams out. He's sitting because he fouls so much and isn't disciplined enough on the defensive end. If people want to hold that against him for a DPOY award, I think it's totally rational.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#255 » by bwgood77 » Sat Jan 14, 2023 4:09 pm

Brook Lopez.

He is 1st by a mile in contested shots. The gap between 1st and 2nd is the same as the gap between 2nd and 44th.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#256 » by bisme37 » Sat Jan 14, 2023 4:45 pm

I think my guy Derrick White deserves some all-defense consideration. Leads the league in blocked shots among guards and has come up with clutch defensive plays all season.

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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#257 » by Johnny Bball » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:56 pm

SpreeS wrote:Drtg (in) Drtg (out) Nrtg

Lopez 108.6 112.6 -4.0
Anunoby 113.2 115.4 -2.2
Adebayo 111.9 113.8 -1.9
Allen 108.7 111.3 -2.6
Giannis 109.4 111.2 -1.8
Jackson 104.9 112.9 -8.0
Claxton 111.8 114.4 -2.6
Mobley 112.1 105.4 +6.7
Embiid 108.7 113.5 -4.8

Green 110.9 119.6 -8.7

DFA DIFF%

Lopez 22.0 -2.3
Anunoby 11.5 -6.1
Adebayo 13.7 -1.9
Allen 16.5 -5.2
Giannis 13.1 -6.3
Jackson 13.1 -6.7
Claxton 14.7 -7.9
Mobley 16.8 -0.3
Embiid 20.6 -2.2

Green 14.7 -6.2

Paint protection DFA FG%

Lopez 7.8 54.3
Anunoby 2.6 56.7
Adebayo 4.1 60.4
Allen 6.0 53.4
Giannis 4.9 53.2
Jackson 6.4 39.6
Claxton 6.3 50.9
Mobley 6.3 63.9
Embiid 8.2 61.7

Green 4.8 48.5

Green is TOP3 defender here


The options behind Green are limited. Bad benches or bad/young positionally can really skew this number.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#258 » by Johnny Bball » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:57 pm

bisme37 wrote:I think my guy Derrick White deserves some all-defense consideration. Leads the league in blocked shots among guards and has come up with clutch defensive plays all season.

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Nah man, you aren't getting both guard spots!
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#259 » by bisme37 » Sat Jan 14, 2023 7:09 pm

Johnny Bball wrote:
bisme37 wrote:I think my guy Derrick White deserves some all-defense consideration. Leads the league in blocked shots among guards and has come up with clutch defensive plays all season.

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Nah man, you aren't getting both guard spots!


Well, at least I got you to consider it haha.
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Re: DPOY and All-Defense Thread 2023 

Post#260 » by cupcakesnake » Sat Jan 14, 2023 8:26 pm

bisme37 wrote:I think my guy Derrick White deserves some all-defense consideration. Leads the league in blocked shots among guards and has come up with clutch defensive plays all season.

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Last time I wrote up an all-defense team I'm pretty sure I had White on it.
It's kind of hard to picture the media giving him votes over his reigning DPOY teammate, but when I watch the Celtics, he's the perimeter disruptor I prefer this season. Diving into the on/off combinations backs up my eye on this one:
White w/o Smart 106.4 DRtg
Smart w/o White 114 DRtg
I've looked at all the combinations involving those 2 with/without Brogdon and Brown, and White is the guy with the most consistent presence in the best defensive lineup combinations.

Boston remains a source of confusion for defensive awards this year, especially as they climb into the top 10 and look to continue ascending. Who will the media rally around? Smart is the big defensive name here (and at the less competitive position), where Tatum is really good and is the big star (some media people are always desperate to put big stars on the team). Time Lord is the best defender at his peak, but he's once again an injury asterisk. Horford was their defensive MVP last year in playoffs but he's a year older and always underappreciated. Grant Williams, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, are all players who you have to at least think about to various degrees.
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