2023 trade deadline (February 9)

[levon]

Saw that Magic is interested in trading for Fred VanVleet if he is available. The first idea that came to mind was that they are crazy as they have a logjam at PG. But then I realized that none of their guards is projected to have an equal or better ceiling than Fred VanVleet. This trade makes a lot of sense for Magic. But what they will need to give up?

Mo Bamba for sure, Cole Anthony maybe and probably Terrance Ross as filler

As a Raptors fan, don't you feel the team's success is capped by the fact that it's composed solely of clumsy longbois and not enough finesse players? That was my impression when I watched them play this year. There's such a thing as too much of a good thing. Bamba's yet another clumsy longboi.

[rocketsfan100]

My bold prediction is Anthony Edwards is traded. Wolves have underachieved this year and KAT, Edwards, and Gobert are never going to work. Why get rid of Edwards then? Because KAT is the most obvious player that should be traded, but because it's the Wolves they defy what everyone would expect and trade the player they shouldn't.

No chance. Edwards is the only bright spot the Wilves have now and the future. Unless they get a god like offer the chances of him being traded are slim to none

[Inevitable]

Not sure why the Magic want FVV. He's not that floor general pg that I think the Magic need to make the next step, he more of a 2 guard. And it will take the ball out of Franz's hands who is actually projecting to become one of the most cerebral players out of the 2021 draft. And that's before we talk about FVV's durability.

[ChaseDown]

My bold prediction is Anthony Edwards is traded. Wolves have underachieved this year and KAT, Edwards, and Gobert are never going to work. Why get rid of Edwards then? Because KAT is the most obvious player that should be traded, but because it's the Wolves they defy what everyone would expect and trade the player they shouldn't.

No chance. Edwards is the only bright spot the Wilves have now and the future. Unless they get a god like offer the chances of him being traded are slim to none

Don’t underestimate the T’Wolves my friend

[Inspectah Tech]

My bold prediction is Anthony Edwards is traded. Wolves have underachieved this year and KAT, Edwards, and Gobert are never going to work. Why get rid of Edwards then? Because KAT is the most obvious player that should be traded, but because it's the Wolves they defy what everyone would expect and trade the player they shouldn't.

If it wasn't for Edwards we'd be in the running for a top 5 pick, He isn't going anywhere

[shangrila]

My bold prediction is Anthony Edwards is traded. Wolves have underachieved this year and KAT, Edwards, and Gobert are never going to work. Why get rid of Edwards then? Because KAT is the most obvious player that should be traded, but because it's the Wolves they defy what everyone would expect and trade the player they shouldn't.

Jesus wept.

So in this bold prediction of yours, who do they trade him for? Joel Embiid? A jar of pickles?

[knicksNOTslick]

OG Anunoby is going to be the biggest name moved at the deadline is my prediction.

That and Dallas is more active than we expect because Luka forces them to be

Not if Toronto keeps demanding multiple unprotected 1st round picks for a glorified role player.

[hoosierdaddy34]

Fred Van Vleet expected to sign with Klutch this week. Per Marc Stein.

[Ducklett]

Where do you guys think Bamba ends up? It was being reported that 5 teams (Heat, Raptors, Knicks, Clippers, unnamed Western team) are interested in his services.

[lambchop]

Not sure why the Magic want FVV. He's not that floor general pg that I think the Magic need to make the next step, he more of a 2 guard. And it will take the ball out of Franz's hands who is actually projecting to become one of the most cerebral players out of the 2021 draft. And that's before we talk about FVV's durability.

FVV is basically plug and play on any team. He already showed with the Raptors that he was able to play alongside Lowry and Kawhi. He simply became more of a spot up shooter and utilized his dribble game more towards the end of the shot clock when they needed him to create something out of nothing. That team even had Gasol so they really didn't need FVV to generate many plays. Add to that the fact he is an awesome defender with championship experience and he has been around star players, so that veteran presence could help Banchero and Wagner with their development and it's pretty obvious why they want him on the team ASAP.

[ReddoverKobe]

The Rudy Gobert trade seems to have broken the brains of many GM's. Like two first for Caruso? Good luck with that

[hoosierdaddy34]

The Rudy Gobert trade seems to have broken the brains of many GM's. Like two first for Caruso? Good luck with that

Probably has something to do with his bargain contract and how ridiculously good his defense has been this year.

Read on Twitter

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[gavran]

Where are the trades?

I wouldn't expect to see a post like this 2 weeks before the deadline from a poster with a 20 year history.

I wouldn't expect to see a post like this about Pharmcat from a poster with a 17 year history. You should have been expecting even worse things.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

People here rave about how multiple picks for guys isn't worth it yet the 20th-30th pick in the draft normally is a bench guy with the rare starter and even rarer star prospect in that range. People overstate how many actual impactful players there are in the league.

A starter level guy in his mid-late 20's is def worth more than 2 20 year olds rookies that are most likely gonna be middling bench players or in the gleague given the odds. Unless its lottery picks, multiple FRP picks isn't that great of a haul imo.

[Richard4444]

People here rave about how multiple picks for guys isn't worth it yet the 20th-30th pick in the draft normally is a bench guy with the rare starter and even rarer star prospect in that range. People overstate how many actual impactful players there are in the league.
.

Lets see:
2016
LeVert: 20th
Siakam: 27th
DMurray: 29th

2017
JarretAllen 22th
OG: 23th
Kuzma 27th
DWhite 29th
Hart 30th

2018
Grayson Allen 21th
Afernee Simons 24th
TimeLord 27th

2019
Brandon Clarke 21th
Grant Williams 22th
Jordan Poole 28th
Keldon Johnson 29th
KPJr 30th

2020
Tyrese Maxey 21th
Immanuel Quickley 25th
Jaden McDaniels 28th
Desmond Bane 30th

2021
Quentin Grimes 25th
Nashon Hyland 26th
Santi Aldama 30th

Lot of good players in the 20s in the last years.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

People here rave about how multiple picks for guys isn't worth it yet the 20th-30th pick in the draft normally is a bench guy with the rare starter and even rarer star prospect in that range. People overstate how many actual impactful players there are in the league.
.

Lets see:
2016
LeVert: 20th
Siakam: 27th
DMurray: 29th

2017
JarretAllen 22th
OG: 23th
Kuzma 27th
DWhite 29th
Hart 30th

2018
Grayson Allen 21th
Afernee Simons 24th
TimeLord 27th

2019
Brandon Clarke 21th
Grant Williams 22th
Jordan Poole 28th
Keldon Johnson 29th
KPJr 30th

2020
Tyrese Maxey 21th
Immanuel Quickley 25th
Jaden McDaniels 28th
Desmond Bane 30th

2021
Quentin Grimes 25th
Nashon Hyland 26th
Santi Aldama 30th

Lot of good players in the 20s in the last years.

So you have about a ~30% chance of getting someone who may be a starter depending on fit and a higher percentage chance you get a bench player. Never said the draft ended after 15, but the chances of you getting a certified starter (i.e. they start on the majority of NBA teams) let alone a star is low in this range. No GM is betting on anyone in that draft range to be any more than a role player or a specialist. Especially if the picks are coming from big market teams that can sign guys in FA or have established superstars on their team.

2-3 bench players and older salary filler for a star doesn't sound as sexy as 3 FRP (lottery protected) and filler.

[Pointgod]

Read on Twitter

[Pointgod]

People here rave about how multiple picks for guys isn't worth it yet the 20th-30th pick in the draft normally is a bench guy with the rare starter and even rarer star prospect in that range. People overstate how many actual impactful players there are in the league.
.

Lets see:
2016
LeVert: 20th
Siakam: 27th
DMurray: 29th

2017
JarretAllen 22th
OG: 23th
Kuzma 27th
DWhite 29th
Hart 30th

2018
Grayson Allen 21th
Afernee Simons 24th
TimeLord 27th

2019
Brandon Clarke 21th
Grant Williams 22th
Jordan Poole 28th
Keldon Johnson 29th
KPJr 30th

2020
Tyrese Maxey 21th
Immanuel Quickley 25th
Jaden McDaniels 28th
Desmond Bane 30th

2021
Quentin Grimes 25th
Nashon Hyland 26th
Santi Aldama 30th

Lot of good players in the 20s in the last years.

So you have about a ~30% chance of getting someone who may be a starter depending on fit and a higher percentage chance you get a bench player. Never said the draft ended after 15, but the chances of you getting a certified starter (i.e. they start on the majority of NBA teams) let alone a star is low in this range. No GM is betting on anyone in that draft range to be any more than a role player or a specialist. Especially if the picks are coming from big market teams that can sign guys in FA or have established superstars on their team.

2-3 bench players and older salary filler for a star doesn't sound as sexy as 3 FRP (lottery protected) and filler.

No to mention only two of those players were all stars, not even superstars. So that’s a 3% hit rate on allstars with lower picks. I think teams might try to rethink trading young lottery picks in the superstar trades. For example including Shai in the Paul George deal seems like a mistake, maybe Cavs should have tried to keep Markkanen (but then the deal probably falls apart). Lakers trading both Lonzo and Ingram set them back.

This chart is pretty nifty for seeing which picks produce the best players.

[ReddoverKobe]

The Rudy Gobert trade seems to have broken the brains of many GM's. Like two first for Caruso? Good luck with that

Probably has something to do with his bargain contract and how ridiculously good his defense has been this year.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=nASexaX0orRww-fuEr76iw

He plays 25 mins a game, cant seem to shoot whenever I see him play. Sorry, not giving up two first for that.

[Richard4444]

People here rave about how multiple picks for guys isn't worth it yet the 20th-30th pick in the draft normally is a bench guy with the rare starter and even rarer star prospect in that range. People overstate how many actual impactful players there are in the league.
.

Lets see:
2016
LeVert: 20th
Siakam: 27th
DMurray: 29th

2017
JarretAllen 22th
OG: 23th
Kuzma 27th
DWhite 29th
Hart 30th

2018
Grayson Allen 21th
Afernee Simons 24th
TimeLord 27th

2019
Brandon Clarke 21th
Grant Williams 22th
Jordan Poole 28th
Keldon Johnson 29th
KPJr 30th

2020
Tyrese Maxey 21th
Immanuel Quickley 25th
Jaden McDaniels 28th
Desmond Bane 30th

2021
Quentin Grimes 25th
Nashon Hyland 26th
Santi Aldama 30th

Lot of good players in the 20s in the last years.

So you have about a ~30% chance of getting someone who may be a starter depending on fit and a higher percentage chance you get a bench player. Never said the draft ended after 15, but the chances of you getting a certified starter (i.e. they start on the majority of NBA teams) let alone a star is low in this range. No GM is betting on anyone in that draft range to be any more than a role player or a specialist. Especially if the picks are coming from big market teams that can sign guys in FA or have established superstars on their team.

2-3 bench players and older salary filler for a star doesn't sound as sexy as 3 FRP (lottery protected) and filler.

But what are the odds to get very starting material with 6th to 19th picks? After, the Top5 pick, the draft uses to be a crapshoot.

2016
Buddy Hield 6
Jamal Murray 7
Jakob Pearl 9
Sabonis 11
Malik Beasley 19

2017
Isaac 6
Lauri Markennen 7
Monk 11
Donovan Mitchell 13
Bam Adebayo 14
John Collins 19

2018
Wendell Carter 7
Collin Sexton 8
Mikal Bridges 10
Shai 11
MPJ 14
Huerter 19

2019
Cam Johnson 11
PJ Washigton 12
Tyler Herro 13

2020
Onyeka Okongwu 6
Deni Avidja 9
Vassel 11
Haliburton 12
Cole Anthony 15
Stewart 16
Poku 17
Saddiq Bey 19

2021
Giddey 6
Kuminga 7
F Wagner 8
Duarte 13
Sengun 16
Trey Murphy 17

In this projection, the odds would be around 40% to get a good starting player in the 6th-19th zone.

In my projection for 20-30th, the odds to get a good player were 35%.

Lately, there are plenty of good players in the 20s. Almost as much as in the 6th-19th zone.