2023 trade deadline (February 9)

[Richard4444]

Lets see:
2016
LeVert: 20th
Siakam: 27th
DMurray: 29th

2017
JarretAllen 22th
OG: 23th
Kuzma 27th
DWhite 29th
Hart 30th

2018
Grayson Allen 21th
Afernee Simons 24th
TimeLord 27th

2019
Brandon Clarke 21th
Grant Williams 22th
Jordan Poole 28th
Keldon Johnson 29th
KPJr 30th

2020
Tyrese Maxey 21th
Immanuel Quickley 25th
Jaden McDaniels 28th
Desmond Bane 30th

2021
Quentin Grimes 25th
Nashon Hyland 26th
Santi Aldama 30th

Lot of good players in the 20s in the last years.

So you have about a ~30% chance of getting someone who may be a starter depending on fit and a higher percentage chance you get a bench player. Never said the draft ended after 15, but the chances of you getting a certified starter (i.e. they start on the majority of NBA teams) let alone a star is low in this range. No GM is betting on anyone in that draft range to be any more than a role player or a specialist. Especially if the picks are coming from big market teams that can sign guys in FA or have established superstars on their team.

2-3 bench players and older salary filler for a star doesn't sound as sexy as 3 FRP (lottery protected) and filler.

No to mention only two of those players were all stars, not even superstars. So that’s a 3% hit rate on allstars with lower picks. I think teams might try to rethink trading young lottery picks in the superstar trades. For example including Shai in the Paul George deal seems like a mistake, maybe Cavs should have tried to keep Markkanen (but then the deal probably falls apart). Lakers trading both Lonzo and Ingram set them back.

This chart is pretty nifty for seeing which picks produce the best players.

I don't like to use stats from the last decades because the game changed so much. The skills of players are too much different. The NBA is becoming younger and fast. There are more international players. Teams use to tank more and they are more patient with rookies.

[Dadouv47]

Lets see:
2016
LeVert: 20th
Siakam: 27th
DMurray: 29th

2017
JarretAllen 22th
OG: 23th
Kuzma 27th
DWhite 29th
Hart 30th

2018
Grayson Allen 21th
Afernee Simons 24th
TimeLord 27th

2019
Brandon Clarke 21th
Grant Williams 22th
Jordan Poole 28th
Keldon Johnson 29th
KPJr 30th

2020
Tyrese Maxey 21th
Immanuel Quickley 25th
Jaden McDaniels 28th
Desmond Bane 30th

2021
Quentin Grimes 25th
Nashon Hyland 26th
Santi Aldama 30th

Lot of good players in the 20s in the last years.

So you have about a ~30% chance of getting someone who may be a starter depending on fit and a higher percentage chance you get a bench player. Never said the draft ended after 15, but the chances of you getting a certified starter (i.e. they start on the majority of NBA teams) let alone a star is low in this range. No GM is betting on anyone in that draft range to be any more than a role player or a specialist. Especially if the picks are coming from big market teams that can sign guys in FA or have established superstars on their team.

2-3 bench players and older salary filler for a star doesn't sound as sexy as 3 FRP (lottery protected) and filler.

No to mention only two of those players were all stars, not even superstars. So that’s a 3% hit rate on allstars with lower picks. I think teams might try to rethink trading young lottery picks in the superstar trades. For example including Shai in the Paul George deal seems like a mistake, maybe Cavs should have tried to keep Markkanen (but then the deal probably falls apart). Lakers trading both Lonzo and Ingram set them back.

This chart is pretty nifty for seeing which picks produce the best players.

This chart is weird. 0% of bust in players drafted in the top 8?

[hoosierdaddy34]

The Rudy Gobert trade seems to have broken the brains of many GM's. Like two first for Caruso? Good luck with that

Probably has something to do with his bargain contract and how ridiculously good his defense has been this year.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=nASexaX0orRww-fuEr76iw

He plays 25 mins a game, cant seem to shoot whenever I see him play. Sorry, not giving up two first for that.

He is about league average true shooter at 56%. Can’t shoot seems pretty extreme. He doesn’t shoot much because he’d rather get the ball to the elite scorers on his team. He’s the prototypical role player you’d want on a great team. To a title contender that probably will be drafting late anyway? Two protected firsts may be ok to grab an elite defender like him if that’s what you need to help you win a chip.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

So you have about a ~30% chance of getting someone who may be a starter depending on fit and a higher percentage chance you get a bench player. Never said the draft ended after 15, but the chances of you getting a certified starter (i.e. they start on the majority of NBA teams) let alone a star is low in this range. No GM is betting on anyone in that draft range to be any more than a role player or a specialist. Especially if the picks are coming from big market teams that can sign guys in FA or have established superstars on their team.

2-3 bench players and older salary filler for a star doesn't sound as sexy as 3 FRP (lottery protected) and filler.

No to mention only two of those players were all stars, not even superstars. So that’s a 3% hit rate on allstars with lower picks. I think teams might try to rethink trading young lottery picks in the superstar trades. For example including Shai in the Paul George deal seems like a mistake, maybe Cavs should have tried to keep Markkanen (but then the deal probably falls apart). Lakers trading both Lonzo and Ingram set them back.

This chart is pretty nifty for seeing which picks produce the best players.

This chart is weird. 0% of bust in players drafted in the top 8?

Yeah, it is probably stat generated and too generous. Sure Anthony Bennett played 151 games but most of those were in years 1-2 when he only played due to his draft spot. I don't think anyone would call him a role player.

[sfernald]

1. Who will be the buyers?
Wizards (play-in or bust as usual)
Lakers
Suns
Clippers
Timberwolves

2. Who will be the sellers?
Toronto
Magic
Hornets
Jazz (they've fallen back to earth)
Spurs

3. Who are the big names that will be traded?
FVV

There's always a few surprise players/teams. I didn't think Kings would trade Haliburton or the Bulls would make such a stupid offer for Vuc.

Just out of interest, who do you think the Magic would be shopping in this scenario?

I would offer Bamba and actually all their guards. They need to just start over in the guard position, hopefully with Scoot their draft pick next year. I would sell Fultz or Harris for the right price. I would also listen to offers for Suggs and Anthony. The ideal scenario would be to consolidate to a really high quality vet point guard. I would like Fred V or to a much lesser extent Mike C.

I'd like to see next year starting lineup:

Carter / Isaac
Banchero
Wagner
Scoot
Fred V

[MavsDirk41]

I think Mavs trade for Cam Reddish but i wish they would make a move for Mo Bamba. We need some rebounding and shotblocking.

[Pointgod]

I think Mavs trade for Cam Reddish but i wish they would make a move for Mo Bamba. We need some rebounding and shotblocking.

Why not both? But I can’t imagine that’s the type of help Luka is looking for.

[Exp0sed]

I think Mavs trade for Cam Reddish but i wish they would make a move for Mo Bamba. We need some rebounding and shotblocking.

Why not both? But I can’t imagine that’s the type of help Luka is looking for.

they don't have the assets to get the help he is "looking for"

Bamba would help them and doesn't seem to be much of a market for him, so they just might get him

[ChumboChappati]

Saw that Magic is interested in trading for Fred VanVleet if he is available. The first idea that came to mind was that they are crazy as they have a logjam at PG. But then I realized that none of their guards is projected to have an equal or better ceiling than Fred VanVleet. This trade makes a lot of sense for Magic. But what they will need to give up?

Bamba, Harris, Cole Anthony (or Suggs maybe) and the lesser of their and Chicago's 1sts.But I'm not sure Raps would do that and I'm not sure Orlando would give more than that...

Harris + Bamba should be enough.

[Tripod]

Saw that Magic is interested in trading for Fred VanVleet if he is available. The first idea that came to mind was that they are crazy as they have a logjam at PG. But then I realized that none of their guards is projected to have an equal or better ceiling than Fred VanVleet. This trade makes a lot of sense for Magic. But what they will need to give up?

Bamba, Harris, Cole Anthony (or Suggs maybe) and the lesser of their and Chicago's 1sts.But I'm not sure Raps would do that and I'm not sure Orlando would give more than that...

Harris + Bamba should be enough.

Nope, just watch 2 weeks.

[Pointgod]

So you have about a ~30% chance of getting someone who may be a starter depending on fit and a higher percentage chance you get a bench player. Never said the draft ended after 15, but the chances of you getting a certified starter (i.e. they start on the majority of NBA teams) let alone a star is low in this range. No GM is betting on anyone in that draft range to be any more than a role player or a specialist. Especially if the picks are coming from big market teams that can sign guys in FA or have established superstars on their team.

2-3 bench players and older salary filler for a star doesn't sound as sexy as 3 FRP (lottery protected) and filler.

No to mention only two of those players were all stars, not even superstars. So that’s a 3% hit rate on allstars with lower picks. I think teams might try to rethink trading young lottery picks in the superstar trades. For example including Shai in the Paul George deal seems like a mistake, maybe Cavs should have tried to keep Markkanen (but then the deal probably falls apart). Lakers trading both Lonzo and Ingram set them back.

This chart is pretty nifty for seeing which picks produce the best players.

This chart is weird. 0% of bust in players drafted in the top 8?

Well the term bust is highly subjective but the sample size evaluated is large enough that the definition fits across all the players so I’m not as concerned here if it doesn’t meet a persons particular definition. The chart is meant to show trends and I think it does the job

[Tor_Raps]

Saw that Magic is interested in trading for Fred VanVleet if he is available. The first idea that came to mind was that they are crazy as they have a logjam at PG. But then I realized that none of their guards is projected to have an equal or better ceiling than Fred VanVleet. This trade makes a lot of sense for Magic. But what they will need to give up?

Bamba, Harris, Cole Anthony (or Suggs maybe) and the lesser of their and Chicago's 1sts.But I'm not sure Raps would do that and I'm not sure Orlando would give more than that...

Harris + Bamba should be enough.

Harris + Bamba won't get you crap, let alone Fred lol. It's gotta be Suggs + Fillers.

[jehosafats]

Some team will nab Josh Hart, I'm sure. $12 million guaranteed though. Among the top 5 role players in the league in my opinion.

[MavsDirk41]

I think Mavs trade for Cam Reddish but i wish they would make a move for Mo Bamba. We need some rebounding and shotblocking.

Why not both? But I can’t imagine that’s the type of help Luka is looking for.

Mavs dont have the draft picks or players to acquire another star player to pair with Luka. They missed their shot with the Porzingis trade a few years ago. Bamba is better than Powell and McGee. He would give them shotblocking and rebounding at least.

I could also see Mavs do a Wood and Bullock for Rose, Reddish, and Toppin deal with NY. Numbers match.

[Raptors Realtor]

Saw that Magic is interested in trading for Fred VanVleet if he is available. The first idea that came to mind was that they are crazy as they have a logjam at PG. But then I realized that none of their guards is projected to have an equal or better ceiling than Fred VanVleet. This trade makes a lot of sense for Magic. But what they will need to give up?

Bamba, Harris, Cole Anthony (or Suggs maybe) and the lesser of their and Chicago's 1sts.But I'm not sure Raps would do that and I'm not sure Orlando would give more than that...

Harris + Bamba should be enough.

C'mon now, Bamba who can barely crack the Magic's rotation after 5 years and Harris who's an injury prone one trick pony for a starting calibre pg.

[Pointgod]

I think Mavs trade for Cam Reddish but i wish they would make a move for Mo Bamba. We need some rebounding and shotblocking.

Why not both? But I can’t imagine that’s the type of help Luka is looking for.

Mavs dont have the draft picks or players to acquire another star player to pair with Luka. They missed their shot with the Porzingis trade a few years ago. Bamba is better than Powell and McGee. He would give them shotblocking and rebounding at least.

I could also see Mavs do a Wood and Bullock for Rose, Reddish, and Toppin deal with NY. Numbers match.

The Mavs would need to get creative with their deals to get impact players without trading firsts. Think about the Clippers deal with Portland for Powell and Covington or the ironically the Porzingis for Dinwiddie and Bertans deal. Or a similar trade like the Lakers did for Hachimura.

They have roughly they have about 15 million in expiring contracts with Powell and other smaller contracts. Hardaway Jr is a guy they should explore moving, but I think Woods is an absolute keeper unless you’re getting back a significant upgrade. I also like Josh Greene and don’t know why he doesn’t get more minutes, but he’s another piece they can move in the right deal.

[Ballerhogger]

Read on Twitter

?s=20&t=P55T3bwdpkUea0yL_gxU0A Should they trade fvv

[Ballerhogger]

Read on Twitter

?s=20&t=9x_Wja2IY5_ayo-YLXZLew

[Harry Garris]

Some team will nab Josh Hart, I'm sure. $12 million guaranteed though. Among the top 5 role players in the league in my opinion.

I haven’t gotten that impression watching him play this year. But I hope whatever teams are offering to trade for him feel that way.

[Creativetran]

If I'm Denver GM I'd be listening in the Toronto area (Siakam or OG).

Denver is looking for a bench piece not a starting level talent. Jokic, Gordon, MPJ, KCP and Murray are looking like a true contender level group with good chemistry. Bones and Brown are great in reserve. None of these guys are available.

Backup center is an issue and the only likely trade target but Denver has little to trade back after protecting the above (also no picks are available). If they find a bench piece it will have to come cheap.

I would like to see the magic trade Bamba do you guys, hopefully it unlocks him like AG