Why the Future of NBA Contracts Might Ruin the League | The Bill Simmons Podcast

[BigDan245]

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[HiDef]

Hopefully, there's going to be so much talent to go around that it doesn't become a huge problem.

Bill is probably right, and it doesn't seem good for fans. Putting together enough talent to win a title, or getting a top 5 player happens once in a long time. Those teams deserve to extend their title windows and compete for as long as they can.

[big-shot-ROB]

So easy to make 125% extensions count 100% against the cap. How are you going to penalize teams for drafting 2-3 all-nba guys?
It's so stupid.

Specially after 4 yers of the league being WIDE open. We're already 5-6 years away from the Warrios and Heat "dinasties". The league was at a perfect place and now you're gonna have the Nuggs, the Cs, the Grizz, the Kings and the Pelicans dilute their roster cause they drafted studs?

[DaddyCool19]

The contracts of guys who drafted, once they sign their 2nd extension on a max/super max should only count as 25%.

That way you can help smaller franchises and players who value loyalty and don't cripple their franchise with their contract, and can still get some help to contend.

[Statlanta]

I think it will usher in more parity but more chicanery like good teams doing uncompetitive things to get under the aprons

[Yank3525]

I don't think this hurts the league at all. Teams will now have to think about spending their cash on two guys or having one mega star and surrounding him with role players. It actually helps the small market teams with a superstar and makes it easier for them to build around him and be competitive.

[Michael Jordan]

I think the new contracts will have players retiring early, which is good for them.

Take a guy like Wemby for example, after his rookie deal he's probably making 60-80M/year in his mid-late twenties. By the time he's like 30 he'll have almost half a billion in career earnings.

Whose playing basketball into their mid-late 30s if they've already clinched that kind of money? Some definitely will but I feel like others will just say hey its been great.

[Big J]

I think the new contracts will have players retiring early, which is good for them.

Take a guy like Wemby for example, after his rookie deal he's probably making 60-80M/year in his mid-late twenties. By the time he's like 30 he'll have almost half a billion in career earnings.

Whose playing basketball into their mid-late 30s if they've already clinched that kind of money? Some definitely will but I feel like others will just say hey its been great.

Guys will still play into their late 30s for the fame. Once they retire they become nobodies. Plus with the amount of load management they get nowadays it's not as much of a grind for them.

[FluLikeSymptoms]

I’ve been hoping for a 2-star system for a long time. 3 monsters on a team when there’s 29 others is BS. If you draft 3 supermax guys, make a choice. You’ll still improve your team’s position by drafting and moving someone like that. The OKC predicament would still exist as it always has for the less-rich teams, you just need to keep Harden and not Westbrook.

[big-shot-ROB]

I’ve been hoping for a 2-star system for a long time. 3 monsters on a team when there’s 29 others is BS. If you draft 3 supermax guys, make a choice. You’ll still improve your team’s position by drafting and moving someone like that. The OKC predicament would still exist as it always has for the less-rich teams, you just need to keep Harden and not Westbrook.

Who are the 3 star teams though right now?

[big-shot-ROB]

This is going to create an even bigger disparity! It's been clear for the last decade you're not going nowhere if you're max player is not a top-5 player in the league. It's also been clear you're not going anywhere if your star player isn't a SF unless you get lucky and you get a top-10 offensive player of all time like Curry or Jokic.

[big-shot-ROB]

Also, if small and mid market teams can't overpay for their role-players when they have 2 max guys, what's stopping them from joining the popular teams? If I'm not going to make more money, why should I stay in Minnesota when I can go to LA?

[GSWFan1994]

I wrote this on the Warriors board, posting it here as well:

I have 3 takeaways from this new CBA:

- Unless you have a certified All-NBA 1st team-kind of player, it will be extremely hard to build a contender around a supermax player. If you have 2 then... impossible.

- The middle class will get shattered. Lots of guys in this range (let's say, players who are currently top 60-180) will be underpaid. The good thing is, it lowers the probability of giving mind-blowing contracts to these guys, who will later underperform relative to expectations... though we still will have the same crazy GMs who pay 30 mi/year to a guy who will be your 4th best player and unplayable when you need to close games.

- Directly related to the previous bullet: a market opportunity will arise due to that. Dozens of players will be steals in the free agency/trade market, if you have a front office who can identify guys who can outperform their contract and/or fit with your system and can be easily gettable.

[NZB2323]

Hopefully, there's going to be so much talent to go around that it doesn't become a huge problem.

Bill is probably right, and it doesn't seem good for fans. Putting together enough talent to win a title, or getting a top 5 player happens once in a long time. Those teams deserve to extend their title windows and compete for as long as they can.

But which fans is it good for?

The Bird right rule from the 80s led to the Celtics and Lakers being able to keep their stacked teams and dominate the league. It was good for Celtics and Lakers fans. Was it good for fans of small market teams?

I don’t think the average fan cares that if the Celtics have Tatum and Brown they won’t be able to add as many good players around them, and the Celtics will be worse next year. For fans of other teams in the East, they prefer that the Celtics are worse next year.

What this is really in place to prevent is superteams, like the big 3 in Miami or KD in Golden State, and I think that’s good for most fans.

[payton2kemp]

Disagree with Simmons, this helps parity and makes it harder for teams to get stacked. Its better for the NBA.

[payton2kemp]

This is going to create an even bigger disparity! It's been clear for the last decade you're not going nowhere if you're max player is not a top-5 player in the league. It's also been clear you're not going anywhere if your star player isn't a SF unless you get lucky and you get a top-10 offensive player of all time like Curry or Jokic.

Not really, in Bill's example this make it harder for a finals team like the celtics to keep Grant Williams. They are tied up with Tatum and Brown, as such teams that don't have superstars can sign those lower quality players and pay them more. Houston/Spurs/OKC/Utah can all add those types of guys.

[mastermixer]

I’ve been hoping for a 2-star system for a long time. 3 monsters on a team when there’s 29 others is BS. If you draft 3 supermax guys, make a choice. You’ll still improve your team’s position by drafting and moving someone like that. The OKC predicament would still exist as it always has for the less-rich teams, you just need to keep Harden and not Westbrook.

Who are the 3 star teams though right now?

LeBron, AD, and Reeves.

[Cassalien]

...The league was at a perfect place and now you're gonna have the Nuggs, the Cs, the Grizz, the Kings and the Pelicans dilute their roster cause they drafted studs?

While the league is undoubtedly is in a solid place right now, it can be much better. You have a team like the Nuggets offer a crazy contract to MPJ who has proven nothing but role player qualities in his career so far. Tobias Harris in Philly is another example of overpaid guys and the list can be extended very easily.

What the new CBA will allow to happen is maybe a year or two of players and agents trying to play hard ball to get unreasonable amounts of money in contracts and once the dust settles you will find a much more balanced market. A market that actually has players paid much more accoding to their value to teams.

This will start at the very top of the player food chain with max contracts being less likely to just get distributed to fraud max players, sixth men, role players etc. You will find FO's actually having to decide whether they want to keep their core players at a solid price tag or maybe sacrifice their talent for more depth.

What you may also find is start players taking less of a share of the cap of a team. One might not look for simply the highest amount of money like Harden and Melo did. These guys wont be able to take max money and then complain about not having enough help.

In short, I just don't see enough good players on the Teams you have listed that would require the Team to break up their whole core.

Spoiler:

Nuggets have Jokic and Murray deserving big money but thats it, the rest are just role players thriving. AG is a servicable starter I suppose but that should not require a max contract or anything even remotely close to it.

Who on the Celtics should earn big money? Tatum and Brown for sure. Next highest paid player should be Smart or Brogdon? You tell me who is more valuable. All of those decisions will have a major impact on the market (if you were in the C's FO).

Grizz? Ja deserves money for his on the field work, off court could and probably should cost him a lot to set a precedent. Who else deserves big money? JJJ? A dude who won DPOY, sure but he averages 18.6 PTS, 6.8 REB, 1 AST on .58 2PT% and .35 3PT%. That is not max money and everyone else comes after. Desmond Bane can show how good he is next season.

[big-shot-ROB]

...The league was at a perfect place and now you're gonna have the Nuggs, the Cs, the Grizz, the Kings and the Pelicans dilute their roster cause they drafted studs?

While the league is undoubtedly is in a solid place right now, it can be much better. You have a team like the Nuggets offer a crazy contract to MPJ who has proven nothing but role player qualities in his career so far. Tobias Harris in Philly is another example of overpaid guys and the list can be extended very easily.

So let's put this scenario. Both LBJ+AD make the same as JOKIC+MURRAY. If DEN can't offer the max to MPJ because of the second apron, and given the two main salaries for both teams this means MPJ can get the same from both teams, how is he going to chose the Denver over the Lakers or any big market cities whose stars make the same as Jokic+Murray?

[payton2kemp]

...The league was at a perfect place and now you're gonna have the Nuggs, the Cs, the Grizz, the Kings and the Pelicans dilute their roster cause they drafted studs?

While the league is undoubtedly is in a solid place right now, it can be much better. You have a team like the Nuggets offer a crazy contract to MPJ who has proven nothing but role player qualities in his career so far. Tobias Harris in Philly is another example of overpaid guys and the list can be extended very easily.

So let's put this scenario. Both LBJ+AD make the same as JOKIC+MURRAY. If DEN can't offer the max to MPJ because of the second apron, and given the two main salaries for both teams this means MPJ can get the same from both teams, how is he going to chose the Denver over the Lakers or any big market cities whose stars make the same as Jokic+Murray?

Or he goes to a 3rd team with cap space that can pay him more than both. So that 3rd team gets better. It's not as simple as you're putting it. Lets say this summer hes a free agent, he would look great on OKC which has cap space.