Cade Cunningham - Any Concerns?

[Godymas]

Cade is the chosen tank commander this season. Detroit start the season 2-5 en route to what will likely be a bottom 5 finish in the NBA.

This is expected because of how young the team is.

When Cade was first a prospect, the hype was thru the roof, generational player they said. Not Wemby level, but basically a guy that could be an American Luka.

Last season he got injured early, but this season he’s come out the gates swinging.

Let’s start with the good:
Offensively he is mostly good, he’s getting to his spots, showing his feel for the game, finishing and shooting decently enough so far.

He’s dishing it out, 7.3 APG is nothing to mess with. He’s being the offensive facilitator and playmaker, he shows the IQ

Now the bad:
He’s averaging 5.6 TO per a game. This is the second worst in history. When Harden averaged 5.7 he did it on 10 assists.

The defense is trash (assumption here based on #s). He’s got 2 guys that are defensive anchors next to him in Duren and Thompson and even in his lesser role it looks bad.

All the advanced metrics are trash, BPM, WS, TS, Detroit is negative with him on the court. it’s all terrible.

The comparisons for Cade were Harden/Luka, but Harden and Luka became winning players really quickly. Even on bad teams, Harden and Luka showed great promise really quickly. I’m not saying Cade hasn’t shown potential, but any starter is capable of averaging 20 ppg if given Cade’s role.

[bstein14]

Cade's TOs are way too high but:
1. Monty has brought in a new system where he wants playing making quick decisions with the ball, which is going to be harder for young players without as much NBA experience. There are going to be some growing pains with that system for sure.
2. Cade has been getting blizted/doubled a ton this season and he really needs another offensive threat in that starting lineup having Killian Hayes, Ausar, Stew and Duren leaves Cade really lacking a release valve type player which hopefully they will have back soon when Burks and Bojan come back from injury.
3. He still needs to get better at getting to the line to up that TS% as well now he often is crafty in trying to avoid contact to get a cleaner shot up but the smart vet scorers will take that contact and draw a foul and get those FTs.

I think the real numbers to look at for Cade are going to be how he does in January - April once he's had some time to get his legs back, learn the new system, and hopefully has some better offensive player next to him as well... not to mention some of the other young guys on the team learning the system better.

If we get the same Cade all season as we're getting now, no chance I would give him a max rookie extension in 8 months... but I have a feeling we're going to see a much better version of Cade essentially a month from now.

[Maverick41]

He's a very good player but not a #1 option type guy on a championship team. He's a good #2 or a great #3.

[hauntedcomputer]

It's a bit bogus because apparently the Pistons are trying to juice Killian Hayes stats to trade him at the deadline, otherwise there is no excuse to be playing him over Ivey as Hayes is virtually unplayable. Ivey may even be better than Cade. There's some potential to be a solid pro but I've not seen anything even all-starish yet, much less generational.

The trouble is that bad organizations rot from the head first and the stink gets so deep that it can spoil entire careers. Cade will get extended, no doubt, just because there's no choice but to go all in. He did show some slight improvement over his rookie year so there's a chance he will eventually be a decent player--in some other organization.

[dolphinatik]

he hasnt had enough NBA court time to really learn yet. give him time.

[Special_Puppy]

Besides the first one, he hasn't had a good game this season. He's awful shooting around the rim. He can't rebound. He turns over the ball a lot. He can't steal. He can't block

[WargamesX]

He has a year to work out the kinks in his game before his contract year. The points being made here are valid but a bit premature. He just needs to continue to get playing time and in theory figure out his strengths and weaknesses.

[TheZachAttack]

I have been on this take for awhile. I can't speak to his defense, but to me he is a D Lo clone and everything that comes with that as you scale him up or down a lineup. I also can't speak to his mindset in terms of how he will be willing to fit into a role on a team as this is realized.

I don't think he's even shown that he as good of a shotmaker as D Lo yet (who has been a good to great shot maker throughout his career). The rub is that while taking and making smooth buttery midrange shots and splashing 3's might make him your hoopers favorite hooper, it's not a path to be an efficient scorer again even if you are an above average or even really good shotmaker.

Cade, like D Lo, does not have the athleticism to consistently get to the rim or get to the line. This means his game will be reliant on taking and making tough jump shots. Again, I am willing to even concede that Cade has some good feel, is a good shotmaker, and a pretty good passer who occasionally makes great passes, but I would also concede that about D Lo.

My concern is even if he is a talented basketball player, he has foundational limitations in his game that constrain his ability to be a high-impact player. If he has the right team mindset, works hard, and is better on defense than D Lo (or even above average on defense) there's a path to being a solid #3 on a good team but I don't see anything above that. He can be an volume stats can on a bad team as a tank commander.

There are going to be responses that say this is premature, but the problem is Cade couldn't even do these things at the college level against non-NBA athletes. This is not something that can improve, full stop. So, again I agree that Cade can and likely will get better as a shotmaker and at managing games and making good reads and all of that... but his limitations mean he's going to fall into this tweener category by definition.

The best path for him is a Wolves Wiggins to Warrior Wiggins type career and I'm not convinced that's an easy transition to make or that Cade has the athleticism to make the impact Wiggins does for the Warriors in other ways once he put the effort in those areas.

[JustBuzzin]

He's a young Jalen Rose.

He will be solid but I don't think he will ever be a true #1 kind of scorer.

[turnaroundJ]

he depends a lot on mid range shots to get points and not enough 3s or FTs to make up for it. below the rim finisher without burst. i don't think he's a lead playmaker. i could be wrong but as mentioned above, right now he's closer to dlo than james harden or luka. anyone can get counting stats but only really, really, really good players really deserve the usage. my question is - what can he be without the usage? and would that be worth the max extension that most lottery picks feel entitled to?

perhaps he would turn out better if he can try to become a paul pierce/joe johnson/middleton type instead of luka.

[reanimator]

perhaps he would turn out better if he can try to become a paul pierce/joe johnson/middleton type instead of luka.

This is exactly what the Pistons should be grooming him to be. Accept he isn't a heliocentric creator and tank for Flagg/Boozer/AJ.

[K_chile22]

I think he'll be a good starter but my all star belief in him has faded. Shooting far better than he has from three and still absolutely awful efficiency. If that 3pt shooting normalizes at something lower than it's at. Ooof.

Barnes, Franz, Mobley and Sengun looking like the cream of the crop from that draft (if I forgot your favorite player sorry ig)

[RTG HD]

Yes I am very concerned about Cade. Luckily as a Blazer fan we only face him 2 times per year. But seriously the kid is good and can really light it up. I have no idea how he will develop over time but no reason to think he could not be a star for the next decade if things go right.

[TheSuzerain]

Was way over-hyped but most of that died off during his college season.

He'll always be a disappointing #1 overall of course, but seems like he can be a solid contributor so long as the 3-ball is good.

[mattao313]

Mid range to low end Allstar type player imo should not be a PG.

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[TunaFish]

He isn't fat enough.

[Roger Murdock]

There are some alarm bells about him that were basically brushed under the rug because of Luka Doncics success, even though Luka is bigger, stronger, more athletic, more skilled, and more talented.

1. Cade's athleticism is extremely poor for someone who's supposed to be a go-to scorer/playmaker hybrid. These players almost always have great first steps and can almost always beat their man off the dribble comfortably. Cade is horrible at this and needs lots of screens or time to get by his man. This will not improve because he doesnt have the athleticism for it.

2. Because of his lack of athleticism he relies on an extremely difficult shot diet. He couldn't get separation in college, and can't in the NBA. Hes a pretty good shooter but to get his points he needs to make contested jumpers. He doesn't get to the rim and isn't effective finishing close. He doesnt get to the foul line because his defenders can stay in front of him and in position. Basically, Cade cant generate any easy looks for himself. His efficiency should improve as he gets more polished and smarter, but hes not going to be a +TS% high usage player.

3. Hes an overrated passer and playmaker. He's got a loose handle and is very turnover prone. Again, he cannot beat his man off the dribble, which is the #1 skill for a dynamic playmaker. When you get past your man, the defense scrambles and rotates and it leaves people open for easy passes and easy buckets. Cade doesnt make the defense scramble, which means the passing lanes aren't there. Just like Cade relies on a tough shot diet for points, he relies on more difficult passes and less space and as a playmaker.

These three issues are unlikely to improve considerably because the root cause is he is a D-level athlete for his NBA role and isn't a good enough shooter or passer to make up for it.

Cade is great at basketball overall but he is cast for the wrong role. He's dynamic, versatile, high IQ, etc. But you absolutely cannot be this limited and be a 1-man engine on offense or you will be on <30 win teams your entire career. Hes actually a really smart off ball player, and if hes given a role where he runs around off screens he will get more space and the defense will be scrambling which will open up passing lanes and create opportunities for the team.

[CptCrunch]

Cade is a fine player, just overrated and over-drafted.

He is third option with limited vision being played as a first option Luka/Harden/LeBron type role. Of course he will suffer from not being able to create separation, leading to low probability passes and difficult shots. He is actually quite good at shooting the ball.

In a re-draft he is realistically the #4/5 pick behind Mobley, Barnes, maybe behind Wagner, Sengun.

[oldncreaky]

There are some alarm bells about him that were basically brushed under the rug because of Luka Doncics success, even though Luka is bigger, stronger, more athletic, more skilled, and more talented.

1. Cade's athleticism is extremely poor for someone who's supposed to be a go-to scorer/playmaker hybrid. These players almost always have great first steps and can almost always beat their man off the dribble comfortably. Cade is horrible at this and needs lots of screens or time to get by his man. This will not improve because he doesnt have the athleticism for it.

2. Because of his lack of athleticism he relies on an extremely difficult shot diet. He couldn't get separation in college, and can't in the NBA. Hes a pretty good shooter but to get his points he needs to make contested jumpers. He doesn't get to the rim and isn't effective finishing close. He doesnt get to the foul line because his defenders can stay in front of him and in position. Basically, Cade cant generate any easy looks for himself. His efficiency should improve as he gets more polished and smarter, but hes not going to be a +TS% high usage player.

3. Hes an overrated passer and playmaker. He's got a loose handle and is very turnover prone. Again, he cannot beat his man off the dribble, which is the #1 skill for a dynamic playmaker. When you get past your man, the defense scrambles and rotates and it leaves people open for easy passes and easy buckets. Cade doesnt make the defense scramble, which means the passing lanes aren't there. Just like Cade relies on a tough shot diet for points, he relies on more difficult passes and less space and as a playmaker.

These three issues are unlikely to improve considerably because the root cause is he is a D-level athlete for his NBA role and isn't a good enough shooter or passer to make up for it.

Cade is great at basketball overall but he is cast for the wrong role. He's dynamic, versatile, high IQ, etc. But you absolutely cannot be this limited and be a 1-man engine on offense or you will be on <30 win teams your entire career. Hes actually a really smart off ball player, and if hes given a role where he runs around off screens he will get more space and the defense will be scrambling which will open up passing lanes and create opportunities for the team.

I mostly agree with this

The thing that I'm still reserving judgement on is the turnovers. Detroit's line up is a bit of a mess, and short of players with good hands as well as a good shot (i.e won't get crowded) which really messes up the passing angles. He also is playing with a new coach and system after taking most of last season off. If (biggish if) Cade is able to reduce his turnovers in the next year I think it makes a huge difference in his efficiency, but all the other concerns are still there.

[HotelVitale]

When Cade was first a prospect, the hype was thru the roof, generational player they said. Not Wemby level, but basically a guy that could be an American Luka..

I get the reason for this thread, but realgm gotta stop blaming 'hype' for lack of basic sports literacy. No one said 'he will definitely be Luka Doncic,' or at least no one worth listening to did. People said he was a very smart player who had been dominant with his IQ at previous levels and had the size and skills to be a star if things worked out well, but he was still just a prospect with the usual prospect questions--how well will his strengths translate, how will NBA size and spacing effect him, etc. A player like Wemby got the resounding hype he did because everyone was basically sure that he would be very effective at many things even if he had a poor translation and adaptation. That was not the book on Cade, lots of question marks and possible outcomes, even if there was a lot of confidence in him as a leader/creator because of his track record.

Overall I'd say he's been below average but not a disaster for his possible outcomes, like maybe a 3/10. Shooting and TOs have been a little worse than expected but those were definitely concern spots about him as a prospect. He's been able to produce well and sometimes take over, though, so he hasn't been a failure as a pick. Just not been that great at the consistent execution so far.