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We've had this thread a few times over the years. I want your expert opinion on Greg Oden as a player and a prospect. Show me your basketball knowledge. Thrall me with your basketball acumen.

What was his skillset? What could it have eventually developed into?
What was his true (realistic) ceiling as a player?
What are some apt player comparisons?

I've always thought he shared a lot in common with Dwight physically, minus a difference here and there. Taller and naturally bigger/stronger with a sturdier base, but not quite as athletic.

The more obvious differences lie not with anthropometry and athleticism but in the basketball skillset. Greg was decidedly a better free-throw shooter and more fluid in the post with better hands. His defensive instincts appeared sharper but with a tendency toward fouling.

The free-throw shooting and fluid basketball movements give me confidence he would've eventually developed a more capable jump shot.

In today's game, his offense would mostly consist of rolling, cutting, faking hand-offs, dump-offs, lobs, putbacks, transition buckets, and select post-ups on mismatches and with deep position established. If he develops the mid-range shot, you could add some popping to his PnR game and some mid-post/elbow possessions. Like Anthony Davis but stronger and sturdier, making him a better, more efficient finisher inside.

That being said, I think his true ceiling would've been something of a Tim Duncan/Dwight Howard mix. A perennial rebounding champ and defensive player of the year candidate. A 20-25 ppg, 12-15 rpg, 2.5-3 bpg, 55% FG+, 70%+ FT guy in his prime.

Any thoughts or criticisms toward that?

Here is a comparison of Oden and Howard's combine measurements.

Draft Measurements: (2004 vs. 2007)



Give me your thoughts.

Some additional Oden-related materials:

It's hard to evaluate him based on his NBA play. He was incredibly foul-prone at the NBA level but not at college or high school. Even still, he was starting to turn the corner before fracturing his patella in December 2009. In his last 7 games before the injury he was averaging the following:

- 15.6 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.6 spg, 2.4 bpg, 1.9 topg
- 67.78% TS // 77.5% FT
- 26.1 minutes per game

Foul trouble was the only thing holding him back from starter minutes. For reference, here's what those numbers look like per 36:

- 23.3 ppg, 12.55 rpg, 2.2 apg, 0.83 spg, 3.3 bpg, 2.62 topg
- 67.78% TS // 77.5% FT
- 36 minutes per game

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He was wildly strong. Like if Howard was as strong in his lower body as he was in his upper body.

Super strong, moved very well and deceptively quick. Great timing to block shots with both hands.

Came into the league looking like he had a silky smooth touch and looked a bit robotic in terms of offensive but could still catch and put a **** of pressure on the rim and just bully smaller guys

Once the multiple injuries still looked like he could potentially be a good defender, but just kept re injuring himself.

I was never an Oden believer. He seemed to me like a really good traditional rim protecting, post defending, rebounding center, with not a whole lot of offensive game. Oden had a decent jump hook, especially with the right hand, but that's about all he had away from the rim. He had some offensive skill, so he wasn't a non-scorer, but not a guy I ever expected you could pound the ball into in the low post, or who could face up slower big men as the focus of an offense.

In other words, I never saw him at the overall level of scoring centers like Shaq, Olajuwon, Robinson, Ewing, Duncan, Moses, etc, or even down to Robert Parish/Alonzo Mourning level. He might have been as good or better than some of those guys defensively and/or on the boards, but not as an overall two way player.

He was a good defender, but he was fouling machine. He averaged 6.6 fouls per 36 and 10.1 per 100 possessions and never played more than 24 minutes per game. That's Norvel Pelle territory, although Pelle blocked almost twice as many shots per 100 (6.0 to 3.5). By comparison Jaren Jackson Jr. through last year was 4.9 and 6.5 and was limited to 27.4mpg. So Oden could reduce his fouling by over a third and still probably have it limit his playing time. Compared to say Ewing, he committed twice as many fouls per 100, while blocking slightly fewer shots, and getting slightly fewer steals and defensive rebounds.

Oden definitely had a lot of potential, but I think it gets overblown into legendary proportions that I just don't think are accurate.

Greg Oden had so many potentials as a Blazer. But even though Dwight Howard and his injuries weakened his potential, he had a career.

brutalitops wrote:Super strong, moved very well and deceptively quick. Great timing to block shots with both hands.

Came into the league looking like he had a silky smooth touch and looked a bit robotic in terms of offensive but could still catch and put a **** of pressure on the rim and just bully smaller guys

Once the multiple injuries still looked like he could potentially be a good defender, but just kept re injuring himself.

This is highly accurate. He did look like he’d be a quality foul shooter for a guy that was going to draw a ton of fouls as well.

It was jarring how easily he moved older guys with very strong bases around and got himself easy shots, even if his post game was simple. His lower body power was insane.

He’s just a huge framed guy too. 260 with that low of body fat is wild, and 6’11 legit in socks with huge hands and wingspan. He wasn’t as nimble or as skilled on the ball as Embiid, a guy with a similar huge frame, but his vertical explosion and power was another level up. I think he could have been a bigger and more powerful version of Dwight Howard, with solid free throw shooting (he shot over 60% from the line with his left hand, while he wore a cast on his shooting hand in college, and shot near 80% in hs, iirc)

He wasn’t our Wilt Chamberlain or Kareem kind of talent like some thought when he was young, but I think he was an MVP caliber talent in that time for sure.

I thought he was going to be Ewing 2.0. I can't fault anyone for taking a prospect like him so high. You always have to draft size first if guys are comparable prospects though there's inherently more risk with centers especially those that have dealt with injuries already. I do think drafting for need gets more G.M.s in trouble than anything else in every sport

He compared well to Dwight who was the most dominant center in the league, he was unpolished offensively but he def had some touch that others didn’t. I remember he broke his hand at OSU and shot his FTs pretty well left handed, I think he could have developed his offensive game a lot had he been healthy.

NO-KG-AI wrote:

brutalitops wrote:Super strong, moved very well and deceptively quick. Great timing to block shots with both hands.

Came into the league looking like he had a silky smooth touch and looked a bit robotic in terms of offensive but could still catch and put a **** of pressure on the rim and just bully smaller guys

Once the multiple injuries still looked like he could potentially be a good defender, but just kept re injuring himself.

This is highly accurate. He did look like he’d be a quality foul shooter for a guy that was going to draw a ton of fouls as well.

It was jarring how easily he moved older guys with very strong bases around and got himself easy shots, even if his post game was simple. His lower body power was insane.

He’s just a huge framed guy too. 260 with that low of body fat is wild, and 6’11 legit in socks with huge hands and wingspan. He wasn’t as nimble or as skilled on the ball as Embiid, a guy with a similar huge frame, but his vertical explosion and power was another level up. I think he could have been a bigger and more powerful version of Dwight Howard, with solid free throw shooting (he shot over 60% from the line with his left hand, while he wore a cast on his shooting hand in college, and shot near 80% in hs, iirc)

He wasn’t our Wilt Chamberlain or Kareem kind of talent like some thought when he was young, but I think he was an MVP caliber talent in that time for sure.

I watched him ragdoll Nene in a way I didn't think possible as a rookie. Feels like Ewing or even Ewing+ was on the cards. That Blazers team with Aldridge as third best player would have been bananas even if only for a few years.

Oden did play in the slowest-paced team in the league. In fact, some of the slowest in NBA history (-5.1 and -5.0 relative pace) Also consider that he was playing a role on very competitive playoff teams that weren't far off being considered contenders. Naturally, his numbers should acknowledge these pieces of context, along with his continual injuries disrupting growth and development.

Greg Oden Age 21 and 22 per 75 possessions:

- 17.6 ppg, 13.7 rpg, 1.13 apg, 0.75 spg, 2.7 bpg, 2.85 topg
- 57.7% FG, 66.6% FT, 61.3% TS (112 TS+), 57.7% Free-throw attempt rate

Dwight Howard Age 20 and 21 per 75 possessions:

- 18.3 ppg, 13.58 rpg, 1.88 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.8 bpg, 3.6 topg
- 56.7% FG, 59.0% FT, 59.2% TS (109.5 TS+), 72.1% Free-throw attempt rate

I think Dwight was his ceiling. Which is like it's easy to think of the drama Dwight caused, but pre back injury an all NBA D player without blinking and a top 5 player.

While coming out people said Oden was polished In the post, he did look awkward. I think Dwight naturally was a *better* offensive player, but you kind of want these types of dude not to be running 15-20 post ups a game even back then when post ups were legitimately good offenses. You wanted them on PNR to pressure the rim. Oden was as quick if not quicker then Dwight and a LOT longer.

One of those if he's healthy, Durant still probably ends up better, but you can't fault him or Portland for the pick

Greg Oden played his one college season without his dominant hand. He shot over 60% from the field and from the free throw line with his left hand. So we never really got a great image of what his ceiling was, just that his floor was ridiculous.

Dude could bully most of the people in the league, was quicker than you'd expect for a big man like him, had a great touch around the basket, could hit a FT, and was able to use both hands. Add that to the fact that he projected to be a DPOY type player and yeah, he would have been one HELL of a prospect.

He's so hard to project in terms of ceiling. The guy had injuries he was dealing with basically his whole life. The whole one leg longer than the other just even compounded it all.

The one thing I don't recall ever seeing was any real passing ability which obviously without that you put a cap on offensive value pretty quickly. Had he developed that however, sky was the limit.

He moved well because he played in limited minutes and limited games.

Everyone can move well if they are not tired.

His per 36 numbers is good but he fouls like crazy. And if you let a guy like Nic Claxton foul like crazy he might get you 12-13rpg on 4-6bpg.

On offense, does he play like a guard or a wing? If not, then he will rely on his big man skills on offense.

Can he score 20+pts on high efficiency facing them every other night in a 7 game series, against longer guys like Tim Duncan or Andrew Bynum?

You look at his offense and its mostly finishing around the rim, right hook and up and under. His post skills isn’t advanced nor does he have a good face up game.

I think Oden is far from a sure thing.

Those Portland teams are one of the biggest what ifs from that time. Brandon Roy was a F'n monster.

His footwork and movement reminded me of the Georgetown centers Ewing and Mourning more than Dwight. His touch with his short jump hook and the way he squared up made me think he could have developed more of a perimeter game. He wasn't as much of a pogo stick as Dwight but he got better position on both ends. He might have been bigger than Ewing too. The Georgetown centers developed their offensive game while in the league and they came in older.

Ceiling would have been higher than Dwight for those reasons. But he didn't have Shaq's power or Duncan's elite positioning, footwork, and IQ so a bit lower than them.

Injury free I think he would have been better than Dwight. He was bigger, had better footwork, was almost as quick and was stronger. It was clear he didn't have the IQ of someone like Duncan or KG though, he really struggled with foul issues and the speed of the NBA game was a challenge for him. But Dwight is also someone with mediocre BBIQ, so a reasonable comp.