Why did Jokic drop all the way to the 2nd round?

[DLoMor]

Was he not expected to be good? and was a rare one that actually kept improving after being drafted? or what. Anyone have the details, as to why he was not like a top 10 pick.

[maxpower8888]

Nobody expected him to be as good as he was. I'm sure he had a lot of skills even back then, but just looking at his pudgy figure, you can't blame a lot of GMs on passing on him. Who here can honestly say that 8 years ago, they thought Jokic would even be a top 20 player in the league, let alone the best?

[Pharmcat]

aNalYtics

[EmpireFalls]

Because he looks like Nikola Jokic, for one. Tall, chubby, awkward gait, unorthodox shooting form, scoring on weird touch shots and tips that just don't look like an NBA star. And even now, he doesn't look like star NBA centers - it's not that just that there was no frame of reference for Nikola Jokic - there still is no frame of reference for him.

Importantly though, he didn't play much in 13-14 at Mega and his stats were bad. The biggest single statistical reason is that he shot poorly on 3s (22%) and FTs (66%) at Mega, and only averaged 2 assists per game, which hurt him a lot as it meant he wasn't viewed as a floor spacer. Teams didn't buy his shooting at all as a result.

People forget but he was actually a draft and stash player - he stayed another year in the Adriatic League after being drafted by Denver in 14-15 and got significantly better and put up significantly better stats. Had 2015 Jokic entered the draft he almost certainly would've gone first round.

Everyone says 'oh what a miss' and they're right, but if you look at his stats in 13-14 it's hard to project that he'd be anything close to this.

[Masigond]

Was he not expected to be good? and was a rare one that actually kept improving after being drafted? or what. Anyone have the details, as to why he was not like a top 10 pick.

Lack of athleticism, slow and fat, no trust that his offense would translate to the NBA (especially as back then many thought that a big would still need to play with the back to the basket most of the time), many doubts about his defense.

Here's an article with many assessments of Jokic by many scouts prior to the draft.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nikola-jokic-draft-scouting-reports-proved-experts-wrong/l8ofma2jt2huy5b53gooxrkr

[ForeverTFC]

Fat out of shape Serbian dude with a 10" vertical and lateral quickness of a sloth, playing in the Adriatic league. What do you think happened?

[lambchop]

Because he looks like Nikola Jokic, for one. Tall, chubby, awkward gait, unorthodox shooting form, scoring on weird touch shots and tips that just don't look like an NBA star. And even now, he doesn't look like star NBA centers - it's not that just that there was no frame of reference for Nikola Jokic - there still is no frame of reference for him.

Importantly though, he didn't play much in 13-14 at Mega and his stats were bad. The biggest single statistical reason is that he shot poorly on 3s (22%) and FTs (66%) at Mega, and only averaged 2 assists per game, which hurt him a lot as it meant he wasn't viewed as a floor spacer. Teams didn't buy his shooting at all as a result.

People forget but he was actually a draft and stash player - he stayed another year in the Adriatic League after being drafted by Denver in 14-15 and got significantly better and put up significantly better stats. Had 2015 Jokic entered the draft he almost certainly would've gone first round.

Everyone says 'oh what a miss' and they're right, but if you look at his stats in 13-14 it's hard to project that he'd be anything close to this.

Yep, he only shot well at Nike hoop summit and when asked about it he actually blamed his shooting percentages on the rims in Serbia. To be fair, there are some countries and regions in Europe with horrible rims.

[TinmanZBoy]

Same as Why Tom Brady dropped to 6 rounds 199

[Special_Puppy]

"i have seen jokic prior to the hoop summit. last yr at the U19s he didn't really stand out to me. he was like the 3rd best big on the team. i really like micic so i have managed to catch a couple of mega vizura games, which, btw is a very interesting european team to watch because its like 2 salty vets surrounded by a bunch of kids. jokic has looked a little better in this setting. he obviously knows what he's doing. he knows how to play pick n roll and pop. he's an accurate shooter. he's not an over the top finisher, but he does have tricky little finishes like scoops, floaters and up n unders in the paint. i know he measured well at the hoop summit, but he does not play as big as those measurements would indicate, imo, at least not yet. i think he's a bit soft and he's really unathletic. there is no pop in anything he does. laterally he looks slow, doesn't change ends well, has poor elevation and agility. even on his jumpers he looks like he barely jumps. he measures out to be C size, but i don't know if he has the physicality to match up with NBA C's. the thought of him being a back line defender with his athleticism would scare me. i can't say that i find him all that intriguing." This RealGM Comment from April 2014 sums it up.

[chudak]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABA_League_MVP

He was also the MVP of Adriatic league in 2014-15 season, playing against two Euroleague teams (Partizan and Zvezda) at 19 years old

But he did not play in the Euroleague like Doncic did, and was also not very athletic looking and had a relatively poor outing at hoopsummit I guess, because for some reason that is more important than playing grown up professionals in ABA

[NyKnicks1714]

Wasn't it partly that he was under contract at the time? Remember he didn't get to the NBA until a year afterwards.

[EmpireFalls]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABA_League_MVP

He was also the MVP of Adriatic league in 2014-15 season, playing against two Euroleague teams (Partizan and Zvezda) at 19 years old

But he did not play in the Euroleague like Doncic did, and was also not very athletic looking and had a relatively poor outing at hoopsummit I guess, because for some reason that is more important than playing grown up professionals in ABA

Yeah but that was the year after he was drafted.

Basically it would be like a college freshman having an innocuous year kind of struggling to make consistent impact and then declaring for the draft, but then coming back his sophomore year and becoming one of the best players.

The issue is that Nikola Jokic the prospect that got drafted was the freshman not the sophomore.

[jkvonny]

Slow, tall, chubby European with an odd lookin shooting style might have had something to do with it. lol

Diamond in a rough.

Now, one of the best players out there. Hard working.

[MrGoat]

He wasn't nearly as good 10 years ago. Remember he used to have to come off the bench for Nurkic early on in his NBA career. He was fat (Marc Gasol also dropped to the 2nd round because of his man breasts), unathletic, not particularly long, and his skills weren't nearly as pronounced. Nothing about him stood out, ironically he was only even drafted because he was a 7 footer

[XTC]

These are his draft year stats

25.0 MPG
11.4/6.4/2.0/0.8/1.0 on 51.9/22.1/66.7 (He had a TS of 56.7%)

The stats showed a guy who was an interior scorer, who couldn't shoot 3's, and didn't really show he had potential in that area as evident by his FT%. Add in his pudgy physique, akward shooting, and lack of defense its not surprise he wasnt on peoples radar. Like someone mentioned above he was drafted as a draft & stash. No one expected Jokic to be this good.

Year 2
30.5 MPG
15.4/9.3/3.5/1.5/0.9 on 50.3/34.6/66.7 (He had a TS of 58.4%)

In his second year he improved significiantly. This Jokic goes first round IMO. He's now shooting and attempting 3's and hes vastly improved as a passer. Jokic tries to come across as a guy who doesn't train hard, but he worked really hard to transform his body, become one of the best shooting & passing big men, and a MVP candidate.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Aesthetically, his various shots looked absolutely terrible for the time and scouts didn't buy his percentages at all as they thought he was just getting lucky.

Ball handling centers were also not really a thing back then either.

So it was unclear how he would utilize any of his passing (and he was always viewed as an elite passer) and he had major question marks about his defense.

[Sgt Major]

Fatness. The reason was fatness.

[SA37]

Fat out of shape Serbian dude with a 10" vertical and lateral quickness of a sloth, playing in the Adriatic league. What do you think happened?

[Bloodbather]

I was more into following draft prospects back then than I am now, and I remember Jokić's scouting reports. Most of the things we know him for weren't really there heading into the draft. He just had size, soft touch, rebounding ability, and scoring around the rim. His playmaking game wasn't there at all, neither was his dribbling. He averaged 2 APG. His shooting percentages were below average at 22% 3PT and 66% FT, he wasn't a shooter at all. He looked out of shape, very unathletic, had an unorthodox gait, and projected as a terrible defender at the NBA level.

It's really not surprising that he fell all the way to the 2nd round, if anything he could've gone even lower and even go undrafted. He was only featured in mock drafts as a late-2nd rounder. The Nuggets took a gamble on him as a draft & stash player, probably giving him a chance because of his soft touch. It was the following season after his draft, his stash season, where he exploded as a player and started showing off the skillset we know him for.

[og15]

The Jokic that was drafted was not the Jokic that came into the NBA btw, I don't think a lot of people acknowledge this. He was stashed for a season. The version that was drafted was in worse shape than the earlier versions of Jokic who people still called out of shape.

Jokic took a big leap the year after he was drafted, not just production, but also in being in better shape (probably went hand in hand). If Jokic went into the draft a year later he would have gone much higher.

The version that was drafted averaged 11.3 / 6.3 / 2
5 and shot 65.6% FT in the Adriatic.

The next season before he came to the NBA, he averaged 16.7 / 9.2 / 3.2, 1.4 stl, 1.0 blk, though still only 69% FT. His first NBA season, he shot 81% FT, so something obviously gave a nice boost there.

Guys like Frank Kaminski were drafted in the lottery, so it's not like teams don't value skill that is paired with height and size, but they need more data than what they had with Jokic.

Steven Adams though athletic was a one and done lottery pick who averaged 7/6 and shot 44% FT because he had size.

Aesthetically, his various shots looked absolutely terrible for the time and scouts didn't buy his percentages at all as they thought he was just getting lucky.

Ball handling centers were also not really a thing back then either.

So it was unclear how he would utilize any of his passing (and he was always viewed as an elite passer) and he had major question marks about his defense.

Playmaking C's have been a thing in the NBA for probably it's whole history, coming in and out of vogue now and then.

Noah the year Jokic was drafted was actually 4th in MVP voting due to defense and being a ball handling/playmaking C. Of course we also had many in the recent past, not going too far back, Diaw technically in the small ball C role, both Gasol's, Bogut, Divac, Brad Miller, Duncan himself liked to push and make passes in the open court (Magic was just favorite player growing up).

I don't know if any scouts would conclude that a player is getting lucky over seasons worth of data lol, if it was one game, sure.