RealGM

I agree with the top 6 choices (in whatever order) but I would have Luka at #1. I think things are set up for him this year.

Jokic is the most dominant advanced statistics player in the league, although Shai was close last year and Embiid could even top Jokic if Embiid stays healthy.

Kareem won 5 MVPs with only one ring, so Jokic is beyond any further "historic precedent" arguments like the one that cost him his third straight award two seasons ago.

Shai was runner-up last year and has to be considered one of the clear favorites.

Embiid and Giannis, previous award winners, should be very much in the mix if healthy.

If Minnesota can duplicate its success from last year then Edwards, one of the newer "it" guys in the league, could take the hardware.

Brunson is a fearless "little man" who is easy to root for IMO. And he plays in New York City. So if the Knicks are strong this year, he's likely to get a massive media push for MVP.

Wemby seems a little misplaced here because of the Spurs record last season. But he is such an anomaly that the Spurs might be able to improve significantly this season, and if they do he may well enter the conversation.

Tatum at 9 makes sense to me. I don't think Tatum is better than 2008 Garnett (DPOY, 3rd in MVP voting) and Garnett appeared to be held back that year by being on a very strong team with other good players as well as by his meh base stats (18/9), although his advanced stats were strong.

Boston won 9 more games that season than MVP Kobe's Lakers yet KG did not get the nod.

We saw a similar dynamic with last year's Celtics and I believe we are likely to see it again this season.

Unlike Tatum, Garnett had already established himself as an MVP-level talent with the Wolves by winning the award in 2004. But that pedigree wasn't enough to put him over the top with the league-leading Celtics in 2008.

It's Luka time.

sga better win it, he was robbed last year

Seems about right except Embiid won’t likely get enough games in

I’ll pick SGA only because OKC is primed to win 65 wins this season with the inevitable breakout of Jalen Williams and Chet to go along with him.

Didn’t small boi basically guarantee that Tatum is winning it? I’d go with his predictions easy money seems like

TravisScott55 wrote:sga better win it, he was robbed last year

No he wasn’t. Okc was one game above Denver but people forget that Okc was like healthiest team in the league. Whereas Murray missed almost a third of the season with injuries. He was not robbed

Saul Goodman wrote:I’ll pick SGA only because OKC is primed to win 65 wins this season with the inevitable breakout of Jalen Williams and Chet to go along with him.

He has a great chance

Luka
SGA
Joker
Edwards
Giannis

Top 5 in that order imo

I'd take a flyer on Tatum at those odds. If Boston is really strong again a narrative could form - best player on best team last two seasons, etc.

I just want all of Jokic, Luka, ANT and Shai to have excellent years.

It's a huge bummer when a player underperforms or seems fatigued in the playoffs (Jokic this year sure looked exhausted to me)

Nowadays everybody wanna talk like they got something to say but nothing comes out when they move their lips but a bunch of gibberish and Mf's act like they forgot about Ja Morant

Jokic fatigue is setting in. SGA is going to win it.

Jokic looks a little high to me. I think that unless his top competition is injured he's going to have a tough time winning. Last season was easy; his top competition was injured (Embiid), and the Thunder won the same as Denver. Jokic was also riding a wave of support from the perceived slight of being robbed in the year he won the title.

This time around he just lost in the 2nd round. There's going to be alot of doubt about giving him yet another MVP for legacy reasons from some voters. Then there's the fact the Nuggets are likely to be way behind the Thunder in the regular season this time. In fact, with the loss of KCP and the addition of win killer Westbrick, you could see the Nuggets drop a bit, particularly early on as they figure out what to do with him (I.e. cut him). Early in the season is when voter narratives start to get formed. The Nuggets will be worse without KCP, but it's also not like Jokic backers can say 'wow Jokic is carrying a team with no talent', because KCP is just a role player at the end of the day.

I'm not sure who wins, but voters will be looking to jump on a non-Jokic bandwagon this time. Luka & SGA are good bets, but I also wouldn't be shocked to see the Bucks win 60 and Giannis get it. Or the Spurs win 50 and Wemby get it. Not something I'd bet on, but possible.

For me Jokic is the best player and will remain so if healthy and the other younger players doesnt take huge leap forward.

But assuming voting fatigue is a thing, Jokic isn't likely to win so soon again. So this next award firmly between Luka and Shai. League will figure it's their time. Luka has more of the dominant it factor. But Shai is his peer and will have way more winning regular season most likely in stacked OKC, so will be tight.


Embiid if he has a healthy season should be closest to Jokic. But he won't have it.

SGA looks like the best value to me.

Wemby is so unknown they couldn't even find a picture of him

TravisScott55 wrote:sga better win it, he was robbed last year

he was definitely in the conversation but also definitely not robbed

Jokic remains as the best player in the NBA, but Luka is probably going to win.

My dark horse would be DamnSon, I think the Knicks are a lot better than people give credit for and if they have a top 2 record, Jalen will be in the conversation.