Washington Wizards: what's your RealGM analysis?

[GSWFan1994]

Seems like this franchise is a ghost, there is very few talk about them here in the GB.

How do you fine gentlemen assess the direction this team is going?

What about the Bilal/Sarr/Carrington future core? Could any of them become All-Star caliber down the road?

Johnny Davis has looked like one of the biggest busts in recent memory... is he salvageable as a role player?

Could the front office get any relatively valuable assets for Poole, Kuzma, Valanciunas, Brodgon, Kispert, Bagley, Bey and the other players?

Where do you see this team 5 years from now?

Let's talk about the Wizards, gentlemen.

[kodo]

Mostly as expected, they'll be bad by design for draft positioning.
Carrington did get voted as the steal of the draft in an ESPN poll.

ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo polled 20 NBA executives and scouts, asking for their predictions and opinions on the league's incoming rookies.

Which rookie will turn out to be the biggest draft steal?
Bub Carrington, Wizards: 5 votes
Kel'el Ware, Miami Heat: 3
Terrence Shannon Jr., Timberwolves: 3
Matas Buzelis, Chicago Bulls: 2

[SA37]

Assuming stealing Sam Presti is not an option, I still think the Wizards need to hire a GM and a coach for the long-term.

What they need to focus on is developing a franchise that offers stability from the GM and coach that can then build a development system they can hopefully churn out NBA rotation players from. If I were them, I'd be looking to pluck assistant coaches/front office guys/scouts from teams like San Antonio, Miami, Toronto, or OKC. I'd also make sure to focus on bringing in high-quality NBA vets who could help mentor the younger players they're bound to bring in.

[SkyBill40]

It seems as though they're moving in the right direction, but I think there's still questions to be answered before a more definitive view can be applied. How their picks fit in and play out, in addition to the moves made during free agency, is going to really show if they're serious about improving or just kicking the can along. That said, I do see them as having improved over the prior season's end total and getting closer to somewhere nearer the middle of their division than at the bottom of it.

[Scalabrine]

Heres there Projected Depth Chart
Valanciunas/Bagley/Holmes
Kuzma/Sarr/*Bey
Coulibaly/Kispert
Poole/Davis
Brogdon/Carrington/Butler

Whats the actual plan here? I mean, it's very clearly going to be one of the worst teams in the league. This will be a big development year, but they don't have a ton of blue chip prospects to develop.

They should start the season trying to increase the value of their vets and then offload some of them for draft capital and teams unwanted contracts.
- Brogdon has value, but he's often injured.
- Poole has cratered his value and is now considered a very bad contract.
- I can't really think of a good team that Kuzma really fit's well on.
- Val/Holmes/Bag should all be tradable but it's unclear what type of value they'd get back for them, trade at least one of them and make a clear path for minutes for Sarr.

They need to just be bad for a few more years, collect assets, and get high picks. That's the best way to get out of this mess.

[Dan Z]

Did the Wizards try to trade Kuzma this off season?

I think theyre better off without Kuzma and Poole (whose value is low so theyre probably stuck with him for now) and focus on the young players.

[HotelVitale]

Part of it was obviously not rebuilding like 7 years ago and playing out the Brad Beal string, but part is being pretty bad at rebuilding in the past 4 years. They were still indecisive about a full rebuild when Beal wasn't even playing, and they've also just not approached core-building in the simplest or most direct way.

I'm usually pretty skeptical of the idea of draft skill (since GMs generally bascially agree on where prospects should go and since no GM is ever consistently both out of step with consensus and right about it) but I do think some teams have bad draft processes/strategies, and the Wizards have been one of those teams recently. They've consistently chosen players whose upside was weak or overstated, and/or guys with long paths to being good, and that's left them open to the situation they're in now. Johnny Davis and Corey Kispert were well-liked prospects in the late lotto but both were unlikely to be core starting guys, and Coulibaly and Sarr are pretty prototypical guys who look the part but need a ton of good development luck to even be starters. (I thought Rui by contract was a solid pick for them that just didn't work out). Even granting pretty bad luck with how well those guys translated, all 4 were very questionable choices for a team like the Wizards. And even though they have good PT and roster opportunities, they also haven't played the margins well--haven't churned through interesting UDFAs to see who had some NBA skills, haven't hunted well for under-valued younger guys, have mostly just ignored the 2nd round, etc. Don't want to say it's all their fault since so much of that is luck is luck, but they've had one of the worst approaches of any team to improving their chances at luck in the past 5 years IMO.

That said, most teams more or less luck into their core guys (either by getting the right high pick or by some random guy developing WAY better than anyone anticipated), and there's no reason WAS won't do that. They just should probably give themselves more opportunities than they have in the past.

[Scalabrine]

Did the Wizards try to trade Kuzma this off season?

I think theyre better off without Kuzma and Poole (whose value is low so theyre probably stuck with him for now) and focus on the young players.

I was just playing with the trade machine and trying to find some good logical deals for Kuzma and it's just not as easy as you'd think.

He's 29. He makes 23.5 million dollars for three more seasons. He's not a great defensive player. He's not a great 3 point shooter. He's not a great rebounder. He's undersized as a C, but he's also a little slow for a SF. He can put the ball in the hoop, but he's has had a below average TS% every year of his career, what good team is gonna give him the ball over some of their other options.

Here's the trade's I came up with:
Kuzma for Wiggins and two 2nds - Warriors save a little money and they get a player that they can rely on a little more.
Kuzma for Duncan Robinson and Kevin Love. - Heat upgrade the K.Love minutes and get a guy who can help put the ball in the hoop during the regular season.
Kuzma for Ousman Dieng and Isiah Joe - Thunder add some more size that can play with Chet and iHart and getting a solid scoring option off the bench.
Kuzma for Kevin Huerter and Colby Jones - Kings add some better fitting bench depth as they lean harder into their All-Gas, No-Brakes roster construction (I'd much rather them try to get Jerami Grant).

I don't know that any of these trades actually make any of the teams better, but that's the best I could think of.

[God Squad]

I personally didn't like the drafting of Sarr. Some say future Mobley, I see future Wiseman. Something about his hands catching passes gives me concern.

But I liked the Coulibaly and Carrington selections very much.

[Fadeaway_Jumper]

It seems like this team has been rebuilding since the Gilbert Areanas days. Even when they had Wall I felt they were still a long way away from being a true contender

They are one of those teams like Charlotte & Clippers that have bad mojo around them and can’t get right

[Scalabrine]

It seems like this team has been rebuilding since the Gilbert Areanas days. Even when they had Wall I felt they were still a long way away from being a true contender

They are one of those teams like Charlotte & Clippers that have bad mojo around them and can’t get right

There was recently a thread bumped from like 15 years ago on the front page about biggest laughing stocks in the NBA and the Knicks were the consensus. Not too long ago, the Thunder were thought of as a team with no way to improve and I remember reading about people wanting them to relocate after Durant/Westbrook left. Both teams are currently contenders. Teams can have historically bad mojo and then turn it around. It just takes planning, patience, lack of panic and some luck.

There is a blueprint for them to follow, they just need to stick to it and not panic. The writing was on the wall years ago, but they are now finally doing it. It's gonna take a little bit.

[Clav]

I have yet to be convinced that they have a solid plan. I'm by no means catching Wiz games on the regular in the last 2 years but in the ones I did watch I thought Avdija was a massive cornerstone piece and they traded him for way below what I thought his value was.

that move really left a bad taste in my mouth and hesitance on their development over the next 3 years because a lot of roster movement will happen.

Big guys like Sarr take a few years to reach solid potential as they adjust to the game's defensive work, and he's not a stellar offensive player so WAS is gonna rely heavily on streaky shooters for a few years. In that sense, when Poole and Kuzma's contracts are gone, WAS has a great opportunity to snag players in FA, so not all hope is lost, but they will need 1-2 more years of marinating before we see the team getting back into play in contention. They will need a big FA splash.

I'm not thrilled, but I'm not seeing a doomsday situation here either, so I voted ""so so"

[Wingy]

Voted very bad, but it can turn around quickly. If they land the touted stars of the next two drafts and those guys live up to the hype, it can turn around very quickly. If not, well, very bad.

[LaLover11]

MJ needs to make another comeback and teach Jordan Poole how to takeover during the regular season

[pipfan]

I think they REALLY need Flagg. Let's say Sarr is not a bust, and becomes a decent center-good on D and weak on O
Bilal looks nice, as does Carrington

A frontcourt of Bilal/Flagg/Sarr could be REALLY good on D

Kuzma might be able to bring a bit of an asset. Just need that 14% hit

[playoffs]

Voted only "bad" and not "very bad" only because the terrible moves they have made this offseason *might* end up netting them Flagg, but if they don't get him, it's really not a good situation. Traded Avdija, who is still very young, on an upward trajectory, and on a VERY team-friendly contract for what seems like a lot on paper, but realistically it's a mid first rounder in a very bad draft and a mid-late first rounder in a future draft of unknown quality, plus two second rounders. Could've and should've gotten a lot more for him from a contender if they wanted to trade him to tank for Flagg, or they could've gotten this year's mid-first by trading Kuzma. Didn't like that decision at all. Not impressed with the Sarr pick, and I guess theoretically one or more of their many young guys *could* develop into stars, but I'm not really excited about any of them and I don't think that just throwing as many young guys out there without any leadership from more experienced guys is the right way to develop them anyway. Kinda reminds me of the Kings in 2009 when they just decided Tyreke Evans is their future and gave him the keys while getting rid of all their vets.

[kg01]

People make fun of the Kangs but the Zards haven't won 50 games in a season since the 70's.

Yikes

[MrGoat]

Blowing it up and going full tank last season actually was choosing a direction. It's better than being on that treadmill, but it could be a painful process if they have bad luck (like Detroit). They're better off now than if they kept Beal

[mhd]

Look, owner Ted Leonsis (we call him Turd on the Wizards board) is easily the worst owner in the NBA. He mandated trying to compete for the play in versus rebuilding and trading Beal before the horrendous extension he authorized. Once he even saw the folly of that move, he canned the entire previous regime and brought in an entire new FO. They are tanking by design.

It’s an entire new regime led by Michael Winger and Will Dawkins. They didn’t draft anyone before Bilal last summer on the roster.

[Lucky Once]

I voted "Yes, a little" because as MrGoat said above, they actually chose a direction.

This was a treadmill team for a long time that consistently wasted assets for players that didn't move the needle (Morris, Ariza, etc.). Ted Leonis' goal was just to make the playoffs and seemingly more recently just to make the play in. The team waited too long to rebuild after Wall got injured and for some reason decided to give Beal a NTC which lowered his value even more on top of the huge salary.

The direction is seemingly to bottom out for multiple years. The Sarr pick isn't looking good but I thought he was a high ceiling guy so I liked it at the time. As fans we expect them to compete for last place again this season and get a shot at Flagg/Bailey. Unfortunately by the time the team finally decided to rebuild they really didn't have much to work with. There isn't some huge war chest like OKC. They're going to need to be smart working on the fringes of the roster and then get lucky enough to draft an All Star. I wouldn't be on them being good anytime soon, but at least there is a direction.