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Inspired by chat Bill Simmons had with Kirk Goldsberry. Last 6 MVP awards were won by International players, in :
2019 Giannis
2020 Giannis
2021 Jokić
2022 Jokić
2023 Embiid
2024 Jokić

Right now top 5 MVP candidates are not American (Jokić, Dončić, SGA, Embiid, Giannis), Wemby is also coming.
Do you think it could actually happen, an entire decade without USA MVP? No matter the current horizon, it seems very unlikely, but then, who do you think will be next American NBA MVP? The most likely guys are Ant, Tatum, Brunson, maybe even Ja? Maybe someone not in the league yet, like Flagg or Ace Bailey?
Current streak is 6, can internationals extend it further?

P.S. This thread is not an attack on American basketball or anything, just intended for fun debate. No matter if you are US homer or not, I think at least most will agree that it is cool this sport is growing internationally and has become a global sport. Before current 6 year streak, ever since 1956, Non USA guy has won NBA MVP only 4 times in history (Hakeem 94, Nash 05, 06, Dirk 07), the landscape has obviously changed.

The only one i could possibly see doing it right now is Tatum, and even then his team is stacked which in my opinion means he shouldn't be considered. The rest of them are just not Top 5 player MVP level, Edwards maybe in 2-3 years but not right now. My guess would be none, and that the next American MVP isn't drafted yet.

I picture the next 2-3 seasons being a 5 horse race for MVP (Jokic, Giannis, Luka, Embiid, and Shai) that brings us to the 2028+ before an American joins that race likely

I think eventually american media will not be able to take it anymore and vote an american, probably tatum, probably this year to retroactively reward last years ring.


If the selecion was made with NO interference it could be a long draught with Giannis, Jokic still prime, Doncic not even at peak yet and if wembayama does not get injured he could add another 15 yeaers after thatr.

i really feel like brunson has a strong shot if the knicks finish either 1st or second in the east

I like Halliburton here. The Pacers made moves in the offseason, but if they make a leap I think there will still be a surprise factor, which leads to star getting credit. I think we’ve basically seen Tatum’s ceiling. Whoever does it needs to win soon before it’s Wemby every year.

DaGawd wrote:i really feel like brunson has a strong shot if the knicks finish either 1st or second in the east

Brunson is in a very good position to have an Iverson style MVP, where the team is positioned to rack up wins with defense while requiring one player to do all the fun scoring/playmaking. He's got spacing and finishers to boost him, and his secondary scorers (KAT and Bridges) are unlikely to take any of that main character energy.

At the end of the day, he's still a small scoring guard who gets most of his value from on-ball scoring. Jokic/Giannis/Embiid do a lot more, while even Luka/Shai have more elements to their game than Brunson. Brunson would need to have a crazy, show stopping season while the resident top 5 players have quiet/boring years.

I still think Brunson is the best bet though, unless we see a huge leap from Ant, Tatum, or maybe Morant.

Brunson and Tatum has the best chance this year but Edwards has the best chance for this decade among current usa player

Tatum, Edwards, Paulo, and Zion are the only current NBA players with both the talent and a good enough surrounding team to win MVP.

I think Brunson should be in the conversation if the Knicks have one of the best records, but for various reasons I don't think he'll get much love from the people who vote for MVP.

Other guys like Haliburton I don't think are at that level. And players like Morant and LaMelo have the talent, but haven't been healthy enough and/or don't have a good enough team around them.

The fact that Doncic and Shai haven't won yet, and that Wemby could be in the conversation as early as this season makes me think it's not going to happen.

DamnSon and Ant have the best shot in the sense that they have the gaugy numbers to go alone with projected team success. Paulo and Zion are dark horses.

I thought it was going to be Tatum last year, so he'd be my first guess. Problem is the rest of his team is so good it makes it harder for him to shine.

cupcakesnake wrote:

DaGawd wrote:i really feel like brunson has a strong shot if the knicks finish either 1st or second in the east

Brunson is in a very good position to have an Iverson style MVP, where the team is positioned to rack up wins with defense while requiring one player to do all the fun scoring/playmaking. He's got spacing and finishers to boost him, and his secondary scorers (KAT and Bridges) are unlikely to take any of that main character energy.

At the end of the day, he's still a small scoring guard who gets most of his value from on-ball scoring. Jokic/Giannis/Embiid do a lot more, while even Luka/Shai have more elements to their game than Brunson. Brunson would need to have a crazy, show stopping season while the resident top 5 players have quiet/boring years.

I still think Brunson is the best bet though, unless we see a huge leap from Ant, Tatum, or maybe Morant.

I think we underestimate how much Thibs loves KAT. I expect Brunson's shot attempts to take.

The answer is Ja. Ant isn't good enough, Ja can realistically lead Memphis to 55 wins and get MVP hype from that if others tank. I got him 3rd in my MVP standings for the preseason just off narrative alone.

Zion is also being slept on. He's in shape again finally lol.

E-Balla wrote:

cupcakesnake wrote:

DaGawd wrote:i really feel like brunson has a strong shot if the knicks finish either 1st or second in the east

Brunson is in a very good position to have an Iverson style MVP, where the team is positioned to rack up wins with defense while requiring one player to do all the fun scoring/playmaking. He's got spacing and finishers to boost him, and his secondary scorers (KAT and Bridges) are unlikely to take any of that main character energy.

At the end of the day, he's still a small scoring guard who gets most of his value from on-ball scoring. Jokic/Giannis/Embiid do a lot more, while even Luka/Shai have more elements to their game than Brunson. Brunson would need to have a crazy, show stopping season while the resident top 5 players have quiet/boring years.

I still think Brunson is the best bet though, unless we see a huge leap from Ant, Tatum, or maybe Morant.

I think we underestimate how much Thibs loves KAT. I expect Brunson's shot attempts to take.

The answer is Ja. Ant isn't good enough, Ja can realistically lead Memphis to 55 wins and get MVP hype from that if others tank. I got him 3rd in my MVP standings for the preseason just off narrative alone.

Zion is also being slept on. He's in shape again finally lol.

I feel pretty opposite on a lot of this.
Thibs was not good for KAT. Their main season together (the one with Jimmy and Jeff Teague) was a career low in usage for KAT and near career low in FGA (only his rookie season tied that). There was a real problem getting the ball to KAT in Thibs' offense, especially in high-leveage moments. When the playoffs rolled around, Teague/Rose/Butler all ignored KAT and Thibs seemed fine with that.

Thibs has always empowered ball handlers to be aggressive scorers. It's the reason a lot of random players have thrived under THibs (Nate Robinson, Alec Burks types). With bigs, his favorite is the DHO big (Joakim, iHart) and if he can't get that he prefers rim runners (Mitch Robinson, Nerlens Noel, Omer Asik). His offense has never made room for a post up hub. Towns is versatile, and I prefer seeing him in pick & roll and on the perimeter anyways. Maybe he'll do more DHO this year. In terms of KAT's usage though, I'd be pretty surprised to see him prioritized in the offense.

I'm not sure Ja has enough in his game to predict and MVP level season. Peak Ja falls short of MVP-level so he'd have to show us something completely new. A 3-point shot or upgraded playmaking. It's hard to see him having a better season than Luka and SGA as a rim pressuring playmaker. Ja is electric and fun, but it takes more than a narrative to win MVP these days. You need to pair narrative with a pretty nice statistical case. Ja has never been an amazingly efficient scorer, and his playmaking is good rather than great. I feel like an amazing season from Ja puts him on MVP ballots, but not at the top of the ballot in a league with Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, Luka, and SGA.

If Zion can stay healthy and upgrade his defense, I could see him getting into the conversation.

cupcakesnake wrote:I feel pretty opposite on a lot of this.
Thibs was not good for KAT. Their main season together (the one with Jimmy and Jeff Teague) was a career low in usage for KAT and near career low in FGA (only his rookie season tied that). There was a real problem getting the ball to KAT in Thibs' offense, especially in high-leveage moments. When the playoffs rolled around, Teague/Rose/Butler all ignored KAT and Thibs seemed fine with that.

KAT has 2 years over 25ppg, one is under Thibs.

The Jimmy year as we know included a lot of off the court stuff. Teague on his pod said they damn near begged Jimmy to takeover the team because KAT and Wiggins weren't ready.

Thibs has always empowered ball handlers to be aggressive scorers. It's the reason a lot of random players have thrived under THibs (Nate Robinson, Alec Burks types). With bigs, his favorite is the DHO big (Joakim, iHart) and if he can't get that he prefers rim runners (Mitch Robinson, Nerlens Noel, Omer Asik). His offense has never made room for a post up hub. Towns is versatile, and I prefer seeing him in pick & roll and on the perimeter anyways. Maybe he'll do more DHO this year. In terms of KAT's usage though, I'd be pretty surprised to see him prioritized in the offense.

Watch the preseason game. KAT was super involved in the offense mainly due to the screen and roll and the DHO game. Unlike Noah and Hart KAT has a greenlight to launch it off the DHO. We ran a lot of offense through him.

I'm not sure Ja has enough in his game to predict and MVP level season. Peak Ja falls short of MVP-level so he'd have to show us something completely new. A 3-point shot or upgraded playmaking.

You watch him last year? It was only 9 games but it was 100% something new, he's added like 15 lbs of muscle (posted a pic of a scale at 188 lbs) without losing any speed or burst so his balance and strength on drives was WAAAAY improved. Like to the point of making him past a prime Westbrook/prime Rose level threat at the rim. Like he's closer to D. Wade headed downhill now.

It's hard to see him having a better season than Luka and SGA as a rim pressuring playmaker. Ja is electric and fun, but it takes more than a narrative to win MVP these days. You need to pair narrative with a pretty nice statistical case. Ja has never been an amazingly efficient scorer, and his playmaking is good rather than great. I feel like an amazing season from Ja puts him on MVP ballots, but not at the top of the ballot in a league with Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, Luka, and SGA.

If Zion can stay healthy and upgrade his defense, I could see him getting into the conversation.

55 wins, 28/6/9, 50% shooting and he can be there. And it doesn't take more than a narrative to win, if it did Embiid wouldn't have one. Embiid won't get it (injury), the Nuggets are going to lose more than expected so he's out, it's between Giannis, Shai, Luka, and Ja IMO. I got Shai winning, Giannis runner up, Ja third.

He's got a perfect squad around him, and he's just as good of a driver as Luka and Brunson. If his finishing is improved like it seemed to be last year he's going to kill it. Usually his TS% on drives is average, if he can get up to 60-62 TS% on drives instead of 55% he's going to be cooking.

Unbiased take on the next 5 MVPs. Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Tatum, Tatum, Jordan Walsh.

It's a sad list.

E-Balla wrote:

cupcakesnake wrote:I feel pretty opposite on a lot of this.
Thibs was not good for KAT. Their main season together (the one with Jimmy and Jeff Teague) was a career low in usage for KAT and near career low in FGA (only his rookie season tied that). There was a real problem getting the ball to KAT in Thibs' offense, especially in high-leveage moments. When the playoffs rolled around, Teague/Rose/Butler all ignored KAT and Thibs seemed fine with that.

KAT has 2 years over 25ppg, one is under Thibs.

The Jimmy year as we know included a lot of off the court stuff. Teague on his pod said they damn near begged Jimmy to takeover the team because KAT and Wiggins weren't ready.

Thibs has always empowered ball handlers to be aggressive scorers. It's the reason a lot of random players have thrived under THibs (Nate Robinson, Alec Burks types). With bigs, his favorite is the DHO big (Joakim, iHart) and if he can't get that he prefers rim runners (Mitch Robinson, Nerlens Noel, Omer Asik). His offense has never made room for a post up hub. Towns is versatile, and I prefer seeing him in pick & roll and on the perimeter anyways. Maybe he'll do more DHO this year. In terms of KAT's usage though, I'd be pretty surprised to see him prioritized in the offense.

Watch the preseason game. KAT was super involved in the offense mainly due to the screen and roll and the DHO game. Unlike Noah and Hart KAT has a greenlight to launch it off the DHO. We ran a lot of offense through him.

I'm not sure Ja has enough in his game to predict and MVP level season. Peak Ja falls short of MVP-level so he'd have to show us something completely new. A 3-point shot or upgraded playmaking.

You watch him last year? It was only 9 games but it was 100% something new, he's added like 15 lbs of muscle (posted a pic of a scale at 188 lbs) without losing any speed or burst so his balance and strength on drives was WAAAAY improved. Like to the point of making him past a prime Westbrook/prime Rose level threat at the rim. Like he's closer to D. Wade headed downhill now.

It's hard to see him having a better season than Luka and SGA as a rim pressuring playmaker. Ja is electric and fun, but it takes more than a narrative to win MVP these days. You need to pair narrative with a pretty nice statistical case. Ja has never been an amazingly efficient scorer, and his playmaking is good rather than great. I feel like an amazing season from Ja puts him on MVP ballots, but not at the top of the ballot in a league with Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, Luka, and SGA.

If Zion can stay healthy and upgrade his defense, I could see him getting into the conversation.

55 wins, 28/6/9, 50% shooting and he can be there. And it doesn't take more than a narrative to win, if it did Embiid wouldn't have one. Embiid won't get it (injury), the Nuggets are going to lose more than expected so he's out, it's between Giannis, Shai, Luka, and Ja IMO. I got Shai winning, Giannis runner up, Ja third.

He's got a perfect squad around him, and he's just as good of a driver as Luka and Brunson. If his finishing is improved like it seemed to be last year he's going to kill it. Usually his TS% on drives is average, if he can get up to 60-62 TS% on drives instead of 55% he's going to be cooking.

I did watch the preseason game, and loved seeing Towns stationed above the break. He's so dangerous with his combination of deep range and long straight line drives. I tend to not overreact to the actions teams run in preseason because it's pretty common to see some funky stuff in preseason and then see a team lock in very different schemes once the games start counting. Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for Towns and New York to have all the success in the world (they're in my top 3 teams I'd like to see win it all), I'm just cautiously non-optimistic and I'm very biased against Thibs.

Yeah Towns had put up nice numbers in his first year with Thibs, but we also had Ricky Rubio, who was genius level at getting bigs the ball. Rubio also needed big man finishers because he wasn't a scoring threat. Wiggins and Lavine chucked all they want in Thib's offense, and I have a hard time giving Thibs credit for Rubio doing Rubio things, especially because he prioritized getting Rubio out and Teague in. That next year, with the team Thibs had built as president, entry passes were over. In fact passing was over, lol. Conservative but effective, low-turnover offense built around drives. I look at New York, and I see a lot of guys who prefer the same strong drives and pull ups. Brunson is a good playmaker, but he's a great driving scorer and that's what he's most wired to do.

I don't get what you mean about Embiid. He had insane stats the year he won MVP. 33ppg on 65%ts, massive on/off numbers, strong defensive metrics. I'm not saying his numbers were better than Jokic's, I'm saying Biid had a strong statistical case in his own right. Ja would have to take a huge leap in some area to get into that tier. It's not just boxscore and fg% anymore, a lot voters want to see who all the stats say are the elite players. Ja has to have stats at least in that conversation. He definitely looked great for the minute he was back, and I'd be really excited to see him take another step forward in his career. He's still young and he should be healthy and fresh.

I think Edwards could keep getting better and win one. He's only 23, he'll be in his prime by the end of the decade.

cupcakesnake wrote:I did watch the preseason game, and loved seeing Towns stationed above the break. He's so dangerous with his combination of deep range and long straight line drives. I tend to not overreact to the actions teams run in preseason because it's pretty common to see some funky stuff in preseason and then see a team lock in very different schemes once the games start counting. Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for Towns and New York to have all the success in the world (they're in my top 3 teams I'd like to see win it all), I'm just cautiously non-optimistic and I'm very biased against Thibs.

Yeah Towns had put up nice numbers in his first year with Thibs, but we also had Ricky Rubio, who was genius level at getting bigs the ball. Rubio also needed big man finishers because he wasn't a scoring threat. Wiggins and Lavine chucked all they want in Thib's offense, and I have a hard time giving Thibs credit for Rubio doing Rubio things, especially because he prioritized getting Rubio out and Teague in. That next year, with the team Thibs had built as president, entry passes were over. In fact passing was over, lol. Conservative but effective, low-turnover offense built around drives. I look at New York, and I see a lot of guys who prefer the same strong drives and pull ups. Brunson is a good playmaker, but he's a great driving scorer and that's what he's most wired to do.

I agree with all this, but Thibs just really likes Towns. Everything I've seen him say about Towns even when Towns was bashing him he was super positive about his talent and ability.

I don't get what you mean about Embiid. He had insane stats the year he won MVP. 33ppg on 65%ts, massive on/off numbers, strong defensive metrics. I'm not saying his numbers were better than Jokic's, I'm saying Biid had a strong statistical case in his own right.

If they weren't better than Jokic he had no statistical case. By definition.

Ja would have to take a huge leap in some area to get into that tier. It's not just boxscore and fg% anymore, a lot voters want to see who all the stats say are the elite players. Ja has to have stats at least in that conversation. He definitely looked great for the minute he was back, and I'd be really excited to see him take another step forward in his career. He's still young and he should be healthy and fresh.

Ja wouldn't need a huge leap. His advanced non boxscore numbers are closer to Luka than Luka is to the other MVP candidates. Even in boxscore stats like LEBRON he was 11th and Luka was 9th their last full seasons.

Going from 27 to 55 wins will 100% put you in the conversation.

bronny

SGA has the best chance...and don't nitpick, he's close enough.