Post Mortem #3 - Washington Wizards

[Clav]

23rd March, 2025

THIRD team eliminated, the Washington Wizards
Previous threads:

Spoiler:

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2446972 = #1 Jazz
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2446975 = #2 Pelicans

Time of death: March 22, 2025
Record at elimination: 15-55

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/washington-wizards/yearly

Contract summary:
Middleton - 34M PO, or extension eligible [was acquired in the Kuzma trade]
Poole - 2 more years at ~32M
Malcolm Brogdon - will become UFA, or extension eligible
Marcus Smart - expires next season, 21M
Richaun Holmes - appears to have a non-guaranteed 13M next season, could be some %age or fully guaranteed-by date. If waived he would go to UFA
Saddiq Bey - 2 years at 6M remain. (was injured much of this year)
Corey Kispert - extension begins next season 13M/per year - 4 years, TO year four
Anthony Gill - 2.5M non-guaranteed contract next season
Justin Champagnie - 2.3M for 3 more years, appears to have non-guaranteed conditions


Rookie Scale/minimums (varies on 2-4 years remaining)
Sarr - 12M
Bilal Coulibaly - 7.2M
Carlton "Bub" Carrington - 4.6M
Kyshawn George - 3M
AJ Johnson - 3M
Colby Jones - 2M non-guaranteed, or extension eligible
Jalen McDaniles (Ten-day)

TW
Jaylen Martin
JT Thor
Tristan Vukcevic

Dead-cap - none retained NEXT season, 7M off the books this season.

25-26 Capspace - ~ -84M, depends on Middleton's opt-in or out by a fair margin. They are a 1st apron team (hard-capped).


PICKS for 2025 draft
WAS 1st (if 1-10), otherwise NYK/via HOU to OKC/
GSW 2nd (there's a 2nd round swap going on here DET/WAS/GSW)
PHX 2nd





A SMALL SEASON REVIEW:

https://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/wsh/washington-wizards

We saw the Wizards pick up two wins in a row in the first week of the season against Atlanta. I'm sure some eyebrows were raised at the .500 club at the time, but the team went on its first 16-game losing streak [the second 16-game streak was in January] to follow that up, firmly at 2-18 by December. It was time to look toward the draft. However the Wiz did put up some fight in the season to-date. Its win #3 vs DEN in a game Jokic went nuclear is testament that there is potential if things go correctly. In fact, Washington can hold its head high that it swept the Nuggets this year, picking up their 15th win [matching last seaon's total] of the season before being eliminated soon after. They had a 3-game win streak in February, @MIN, @ CHA, @ BKN.

After drafting Alex Sarr with the 2nd pick, Wizards fans and I'm sure the franchise too see it as a multi-year project and that he will improve the team in the long run. Sarr's first year was encouraging for me for what was around him. In about 27MPG, 12.7p - 6.7r - 2.3a - 2.2stocks. I think overall, he's on an upward trajectory even if not the most eye-popping numbers, confident shooter, but needs to work hard on that. Bub Carrington has been reliable and I see a solid player there. Poole actually played some decent ball this year. Coulibaly on the wing is a solid foundation to pair with Sarr, and Bilal had some huge games this year. Unfortunately he's hurt to end the season, but should be ready next year.

The Wizards also definitively picked a side on the compete v tank scale. As an outsider I know losing sucks and words mean little, but there's a real chance to see an impactful player join the team via the draft this year. The pick they owe to NYK is protected 1-through-10, and through-8 next, so it kind of behooves the team to take a second year and a second stab at the draft with those conditions.

Also, if Washington has a handful of contracts that surely could be tradeable next year (Smart, Middleton), and finally, Wiz lost a tonne of games to injury but also got out of Kyle Kuzma's contract. Brogdon expires, and there's room to operate. What did you think of the Wizards this year and how should they go forward from here? Don't forget to vote in the poll!

[Godymas]

team is trending in the right direction with the rebuild

For starters, Poole doesn't suck anymore, actually he might have value in the league now, he might be good enough to secure a first round pick from a team looking to beef up their depth.

Now onto the draft, Washington went big in 2024 and honestly all 3 guys at the bare minimum project to be starters.

Let's start with the headliner, Alex Sarr. Sarr still shows the highest ceiling of any player from the draft. I know Castle gets a ton of praise, but for how raw Sarr is, he's already a very good rim protector and defender and he's showing potential to be dominant on the offensive end as well.

Here's some more food for thought on Sarr:

Read on Twitter

Now onto the other two. Bub Carrington showed flashes to start but fell out of the starter position as the season went on. He very much is comfortable distributing and handling the ball, but lacks a lot of refinement with scoring that will come with time. He's able to fill up the stat sheet and 4.1 assists to 1.6 TOV is very much where you want a rookie PG to be.

Kyshawn George is a real dog, shows great two way potential and upside, obviously rookie efficiency is going to drag things down, but he could be a solid starter one day.

Bilal had a slight jump to start the year and started to flash his potential throughout the year. Most notably, when he was starting in place of Kuzma. With Kuzma out the door expect a healthy Coulibaly to make major strides next year.

The trades for vets were much needed. Khris and Marcus Smart inject a new life into the locker room that Kuzma and Poole were incapable of doing. Dropping Kuzma is also a beneficial move in the long term.

With the pieces Washington has, if the balls roll for that #1 pick the defensive potential of this core could be a problem in a few years.

The FO is navigating a tough DC situation well and with time may have a vision for this roster that could create a new era.

Now as far as the coach, Brian Keefe is not the coach for this team to win with. There is nothing wrong with him coaching a bad Wizards team but he is the least permanent fixture on this team.

[Johnny Tomala]

Keep, keep, as expected, treadmill.

[baldur]

keep deni avdija.

[-Luke-]

I have to admit, I had to look up who the Wizards coach is. So I will skip that question.

Definitely keep the front office. They have made a good job in trading Beal's contract and finally becoming really bad after years of mediocre to bad years, but never being bad enough to draft high.

After years in purgatory the Wizards at least have some hope now. The high pick in this years draft, Sarr, Coulibaly, their other young guys like Carrington, that's a solid foundation for the future.

I'm a bit torn between improving and treadmill. I see them bad again next year, but improving in the mid-term. So I went with improving.

[pipfan]

Flagg would look REALLY good next to Bilal and Sarr moving forward

I guess Harper, Bailey and Edgecomb too-
Any of the top guys fit (Bailey the least)
They just need talent and patience-let Smart/Middleton be vet mentors to start next year, use cap space to get assets and move forward

[BruttoNostra]

25-26 Capspace - ~84M, depends on Middleton's opt-in or out by a fair margin.

I guess you used https://www.spotrac.com/nba/washington-wizards/cap/_/year/2025/sort/cap_total or similar source.
They do have the following cap space for Wizards:

Cap Space
$-84,240,538 / 24th

But it's a negative one, like including all the capholds etc.

In reality, with $32M for Poole, $21M for Smart, $6M for Bey, $14M for Kispert and $32M for Rookie scale contracts, they are at $105M.
Cap hold for their FRP will be ~$10M leaving them about $40M in cap space at most.
And it's assuming all free agents are denounced and nothing is owned to Richuan Homes (just because I can't find the guaranteed part of the salary, if there is any).
Bottom line, they aren't a threat for a max salary spot this summer, but if they spend wisely this offseason, next summer (2026) they will have PLENTY of cap space and hopefully a bunch of more experienced rookie salary players to build around.

[Mavrelous]

25-26 Capspace - ~84M, depends on Middleton's opt-in or out by a fair margin.

I guess you used https://www.spotrac.com/nba/washington-wizards/cap/_/year/2025/sort/cap_total or similar source.
They do have the following cap space for Wizards:

Cap Space
$-84,240,538 / 24th

But it's a negative one, like including all the capholds etc.

In reality, with $32M for Poole, $21M for Smart, $6M for Bey, $14M for Kispert and $32M for Rookie scale contracts, they are at $105M.
Cap hold for their FRP will be ~$10M leaving them about $40M in cap space at most.
And it's assuming all free agents are denounced and nothing is owned to Richuan Homes (just because I can't find the guaranteed part of the salary, if there is any).
Bottom line, they aren't a threat for a max salary spot this summer, but if they spend wisely this offseason, next summer (2026) they will have PLENTY of cap space and hopefully a bunch of more experienced rookie salary players to build around.

Holmes guarantee is 250K, practically nothing, I think they'll waive him to have flexibility to take on salary and stay below the tax.
They'll be over 150 with their draft picks.
They won't have any cap space unless they dump someone which is unlikely...
They will be strong FA player in 26 off season though unless they do another deal to take on future salary.

[jbk1234]

They need to rebuild for one more season. Hopefully next season is the last year not trying to win. Assuming Smart and Middleton are healthy to start next season, audition both of them. On expiring contracts, those two should have suitors.

I strongly disagree that Poole has any trade value. I don't think he's movable until the summer of 26 after the big FAs sign elsewhere. They won the Beal trade and then got robbed in the Poole one. Eating that much salary for a top 20 pick was ridiculous and it's not like the Warriors had a bunch of other options.

[Jadoogar]

They have finally gone down the rebuild path but i still don't see an A level prospect on the team. They need to hit this draft pick out of the park and maybe they'll be able to turn it around. Right now, all they have are supporting players, and not even great supporting players.

[Catchall]

They have finally gone down the rebuild path but i still don't see an A level prospect on the team. They need to hit this draft pick out of the park and maybe they'll be able to turn it around. Right now, all they have are supporting players, and not even great supporting players.

Sarr has a lot of potential. It took Evan Mobley several years to really find his groove. Sarr could conceivably get to that level.

[jasonxxx102]

The Wizards were the team I watched the most this year behind the Cavs. They were bad obviously but just so much fun.

They have a lot of interesting young pieces but I think are still several years away from being good (unless they get Flagg).

They are pretty clearly missing a 1a type piece.

[Doctor MJ]

Honestly it's all wait & see right now. They were supposed to be bad and they were.

[Jadoogar]

They have finally gone down the rebuild path but i still don't see an A level prospect on the team. They need to hit this draft pick out of the park and maybe they'll be able to turn it around. Right now, all they have are supporting players, and not even great supporting players.

Sarr has a lot of potential. It took Evan Mobley several years to really find his groove. Sarr could conceivably get to that level.

Mobley's rookie season (15/8/2/1.7 on 50% from the field) was much better than Sarr (13/7/2/1.5 on 39% from the field).
I think Sarr will be a fine player but he's likely a good defensive center.

[jasonxxx102]

They have finally gone down the rebuild path but i still don't see an A level prospect on the team. They need to hit this draft pick out of the park and maybe they'll be able to turn it around. Right now, all they have are supporting players, and not even great supporting players.

Sarr has a lot of potential. It took Evan Mobley several years to really find his groove. Sarr could conceivably get to that level.

Mobley's rookie season (15/8/2/1.7 on 50% from the field) was much better than Sarr (13/7/2/1.5 on 39% from the field).
I think Sarr will be a fine player but he's likely a good defensive center.

Mobley and Sarr aren't even remotely similar as players.

Sarr isn't a great defender but tricks people into thinking he is with some good looking STK box scores.

Sarr's value is going to be if he can be an elite offensive player with some average to above defense. Mobley is the exact opposite

[Jadoogar]

Sarr has a lot of potential. It took Evan Mobley several years to really find his groove. Sarr could conceivably get to that level.

Mobley's rookie season (15/8/2/1.7 on 50% from the field) was much better than Sarr (13/7/2/1.5 on 39% from the field).
I think Sarr will be a fine player but he's likely a good defensive center.

Mobley and Sarr aren't even remotely similar as players.

Sarr isn't a great defender but tricks people into thinking he is with some good looking STK box scores.

Sarr's value is going to be if he can be an elite offensive player with some average to above defense. Mobley is the exact opposite

if he's an "elite offensive player", his career isn't off to a good start.
39 FG%, 32% from three, 66% from the line. 48.9 TS%, that's awful for a center.

[Chuck Everett]

All depends on the lottery. If they end up picking 4th, the rebuild continues.

[donkeylips]

id keep the coach and front office. no one expected much from the team. theyre young players actually have potential and they should continue to improve.

[9 and 20]

Wiz fan here. Season went as expected. And we already expect another tank job next season.

Sarr established a very low bar for himself after summer league, and he's surpassed that. Looks like a wing trapped in a center's body, in all the best and the worst ways possible. Moves and handles well and shoots a decent percentage from 3, but afraid of contact. Not a good rebounder.

George looks like a stalwart starting/complimentary wing. Same-ish for Bub Carrington. They got AJ Johnson who's got some star potential (maybe a 2% chance?) but is very raw. Tristan Vukcevic looks like a decent big, can develop into a rotation-level guy. The real potential is in this year and next year's draft picks though, like others have said.

Bilal was the biggest disappointment this year. Not enough development from him. I expected a big jump. Second was Kuz, who was maybe trade able last year for a fair amount of draft capital but played like some trash this year.

Middleton and Smart were good additions to the locker room, especially after dumping Kuz. Poole might be the biggest surprise in his return to decent-ish play.

Should have held on to Deni, who is worth more now than when they traded him. Otherwise, all on track for a long, boring rebuild.

[jasonxxx102]

Mobley's rookie season (15/8/2/1.7 on 50% from the field) was much better than Sarr (13/7/2/1.5 on 39% from the field).
I think Sarr will be a fine player but he's likely a good defensive center.

Mobley and Sarr aren't even remotely similar as players.

Sarr isn't a great defender but tricks people into thinking he is with some good looking STK box scores.

Sarr's value is going to be if he can be an elite offensive player with some average to above defense. Mobley is the exact opposite

if he's an "elite offensive player", his career isn't off to a good start.
39 FG%, 32% from three, 66% from the line. 48.9 TS%, that's awful for a center.

well I didn't say I was, I said if he can be.

I think he's basically Marvin Bagley 2.0 but I'm leaving the possibility open