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continued from here: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2455915

Before the start of the series, I thought both the teams were pretty evenly matched but I felt Lakers had a slight edge as I'd probably trust Luka/Lebron way more than Ant/Randle in the crunch time...mind you, Wolves were one of the worst teams in crunch time in RS, which is they main reason they were 6th seed rather than 2nd seed as they lost lot of close games. So far in this series, exact opposite happened where Wolves have been executing better in crunch time. Happy to be wrong but yeah definitely didn't expect Wolves to do so much better than Lakers in 4th qtrs.

Being down 3-1 is tough, BUT:

1. Lakers regained homecourt advantage. (see below)
2. Lakers now only have to win one game on the road to win the series.
3. JJ figured out how to beat MIN for long stretches of game 4.
4. Austin has been pretty bad this series, but has shown potential as the next Tony Parker in the NBA. I think we'll see him rise to the occasion.

So I think this is 50/50.

Which team has more home games left? LAL.

Also by not having won any road games yet, they put themselves in position to win the last road game, because you almost never see a higher seed lose every road game. So the Lakers have 2 home games and a road game they should be heavily favored in.

I picked the wolves in 5 before the series, and after game 1. So I'm sticking to it. The lakers just don't have an answer for all of minnesota's size & weapons. LAL will outsmart them, but as long as the Wolves don't beat themselves, they are too much for this undersized california team...just like I think they will be for GSW, if the warriors get past Houston.

UglyBugBall wrote:Being down 3-1 is tough, BUT:

1. Lakers regained homecourt advantage.
2. Lakers now only have to win one game on the road to win the series.
3. JJ figured out how to beat MIN for most of the game.

So I think this is 50/50.

Which team has more home games left? LAL.

Also by not having won any road games yet, they put themselves in position to win the last road game, because you almost never see a higher seed lose every road game. So the Lakers have 2 home games and a road game they should be heavily favored in.

That's not what anyone else means when they say homecourt advantage. HCA is if you don't need to win any road games to win a series. So LAL lost it in game 1 and failed to regain it in games 3 & 4. If they can win game 5, they'll have a chance to regain it in game 6.

Mavrelous wrote:I don't think Luka is that diffetent than last year Luka, supporting cast and depth made the whole difference, Lakers 25 Vs Mavs 24 is a perfect lesson in the importance of team building, it sucks that LeBron is caught in the middle.of roster shift in LA, this is way too good of a performance at 40 y/o to be wasted, but the team was short on big men depth before the trade and had 0 bigs after the trade, and 0 POA players, Christie isn't that good but would have contributed 20 MPG in this matchup...

Yeah there was a lot of pre-season analysis citing Mavs Luka's performance last year, and talking about it like it was completely replicatable. By far the most obvious difference was those Mavs getting 48 minutes of high-level rim protection, while the Lakers have 0 minutes of that. On the offensive side, Luka is so thirsty to throw lobs to Livley and Gafford, and neither are on the floor. Lakers give him 7 minutes of Jaxson Hayes (good but not Lively or Gafford level as a lob threat), and then maybe a few minutes of Vando, who isn't a strong lob threat. Luka even tried to throw one to DFS and looked angry when Finney-Smith didn't immediately grow 3 inches of heigh and 10 inches of vertical.

I think the thing the Lakers and 24 Mavs do have in common is the strong bodied wings building a shell around the paint. DFS/Lebron/Vando do a half-decent impression of PJ/DJJ, but without the rim protection behind them, it's an empty shell.

Series isn't over. I still believe the Lakers could unlock an advantage on offense, and the Wolves don't always play well when they're supposed to. I think defensively, the Lakers have always been super low on options and the advantages have always been on the Wolves side.

cupcakesnake wrote:

Mavrelous wrote:I don't think Luka is that diffetent than last year Luka, supporting cast and depth made the whole difference, Lakers 25 Vs Mavs 24 is a perfect lesson in the importance of team building, it sucks that LeBron is caught in the middle.of roster shift in LA, this is way too good of a performance at 40 y/o to be wasted, but the team was short on big men depth before the trade and had 0 bigs after the trade, and 0 POA players, Christie isn't that good but would have contributed 20 MPG in this matchup...

Yeah there was a lot of pre-season analysis citing Mavs Luka's performance last year, and talking about it like it was completely replicatable. By far the most obvious difference was those Mavs getting 48 minutes of high-level rim protection, while the Lakers have 0 minutes of that. On the offensive side, Luka is so thirsty to throw lobs to Livley and Gafford, and neither are on the floor. Lakers give him 7 minutes of Jaxson Hayes (good but not Lively or Gafford level as a lob threat), and then maybe a few minutes of Vando, who isn't a strong lob threat. Luka even tried to throw one to DFS and looked angry when Finney-Smith didn't immediately grow 3 inches of heigh and 10 inches of vertical.

I think the thing the Lakers and 24 Mavs do have in common is the strong bodied wings building a shell around the paint. DFS/Lebron/Vando do a half-decent impression of PJ/DJJ, but without the rim protection behind them, it's an empty shell.

Series isn't over. I still believe the Lakers could unlock an advantage on offense, and the Wolves don't always play well when they're supposed to. I think defensively, the Lakers have always been super low on options and the advantages have always been on the Wolves side.

What kind of odds do you give this going to 7?

Lakers win game 5 in a convincing fashion I think but I just don't think JJ is savvy enough yet nor is the team deep enough to rattle off 3 victories. I think Minny takes it in 6. If they take it in 5 then they actually have a more contender pedigree than I would have given them credit for and are a better team than I give them credit for. It is not impossible for the Lakers to win out.... but they don't have enough depth. I am less worried about the minutes played honestly than the lack of depth and looks the Lakers have. To be fair the Wolves strategy of the doubles hurt them. I had the Lakers in 6 easily if not 5 before the start of the series but I have not liked what I have seen. Still if LeBron and Luka click magic can absolutely happen.

cgf wrote:I picked the wolves in 5 before the series, and after game 1. So I'm sticking to it. The lakers just don't have an answer for all of minnesota's size & weapons. LAL will outsmart them, but as long as the Wolves don't beat themselves, they are too much for this undersized california team...just like I think they will be for GSW, if the warriors get past Houston.

The problem is that it's not nearly as easy to outsmart the Wolves this year than last. Ant has leveled up in controlling the game and minimizing mistakes. He's only had like 6 turnovers the entire series. If he's controlling the flow of games without making mistakes then waiting for or expecting Minny to implode or give up easy runs becomes a tenuous strategy at best.

I could see Jimmy Butler or one of Houstons guys forcing him into more mistakes but the Lakers just don't have the defenders to stress this years version of Ant.

UglyBugBall wrote:Being down 3-1 is tough, BUT:

1. Lakers regained homecourt advantage. (see below)
2. Lakers now only have to win one game on the road to win the series.
3. JJ figured out how to beat MIN for long stretches of game 4.
4. Austin has been pretty bad this series, but has shown potential as the next Tony Parker in the NBA. I think we'll see him rise to the occasion.

So I think this is 50/50.

Which team has more home games left? LAL.

Also by not having won any road games yet, they put themselves in position to win the last road game, because you almost never see a higher seed lose every road game. So the Lakers have 2 home games and a road game they should be heavily favored in.

I love your thought on the home court thing but it doesn’t make sense man

When you say REgain, it means they lost it at one point. With your definition of it, home court can never be lost if you went into the series with it.

I get the whole they have 3 games left and 2 are home, but that’s what having 4 home games in a series means, but it doesn’t mean it’s homecourt advantage when you’re down in the series. Technically Minny has home court because if they win ONE home game, they win the series. LA had to win 2 home games minimum

UglyBugBall wrote:Being down 3-1 is tough, BUT:

1. Lakers regained homecourt advantage. (see below)
2. Lakers now only have to win one game on the road to win the series.
3. JJ figured out how to beat MIN for long stretches of game 4.
4. Austin has been pretty bad this series, but has shown potential as the next Tony Parker in the NBA. I think we'll see him rise to the occasion.

So I think this is 50/50.

Which team has more home games left? LAL.

Also by not having won any road games yet, they put themselves in position to win the last road game, because you almost never see a higher seed lose every road game. So the Lakers have 2 home games and a road game they should be heavily favored in.

Shocked you imported this take from the last thread. This belongs in a fan optimism hall of fame.
I'm not saying Lakers can't win it, but to claim being down 3-1 is actually and advantage is comedy. Are you doing comedy?

People keep explaining to you what HCA is, so I wont repeat that. The rest of your argument hinges on this idea of: Lakers haven't done X yet so they'll have to do X at some point. Games aren't randomly generated math outputs. Sometimes a team doesn't do something for a basketball reason. Austin has struggled because he's slow and small against the Wolves defenders.

Anyways, again, I think LA can get right back into this if they can blow open the Wolves defense in the next game. But a new Laker fan claiming 50/50 when one team only has to win 1 game, and the other has to win 3 in a row... is pretty fun stuff!

This series feels over. Minnesota is just the better more deeper team. Lakers playing their starters the entire 2nd half should tell you how they feel about their depth.

KFC, UFC, ABC Wolves in 5!

UglyBugBall wrote:

cupcakesnake wrote:

Mavrelous wrote:I don't think Luka is that diffetent than last year Luka, supporting cast and depth made the whole difference, Lakers 25 Vs Mavs 24 is a perfect lesson in the importance of team building, it sucks that LeBron is caught in the middle.of roster shift in LA, this is way too good of a performance at 40 y/o to be wasted, but the team was short on big men depth before the trade and had 0 bigs after the trade, and 0 POA players, Christie isn't that good but would have contributed 20 MPG in this matchup...

Yeah there was a lot of pre-season analysis citing Mavs Luka's performance last year, and talking about it like it was completely replicatable. By far the most obvious difference was those Mavs getting 48 minutes of high-level rim protection, while the Lakers have 0 minutes of that. On the offensive side, Luka is so thirsty to throw lobs to Livley and Gafford, and neither are on the floor. Lakers give him 7 minutes of Jaxson Hayes (good but not Lively or Gafford level as a lob threat), and then maybe a few minutes of Vando, who isn't a strong lob threat. Luka even tried to throw one to DFS and looked angry when Finney-Smith didn't immediately grow 3 inches of heigh and 10 inches of vertical.

I think the thing the Lakers and 24 Mavs do have in common is the strong bodied wings building a shell around the paint. DFS/Lebron/Vando do a half-decent impression of PJ/DJJ, but without the rim protection behind them, it's an empty shell.

Series isn't over. I still believe the Lakers could unlock an advantage on offense, and the Wolves don't always play well when they're supposed to. I think defensively, the Lakers have always been super low on options and the advantages have always been on the Wolves side.

What kind of odds do you give this going to 7?

33.3% as an optimistic likely closer to 25%. Still can't count out the big 2 though.

UglyBugBall wrote:Being down 3-1 is tough, BUT:

1. Lakers regained homecourt advantage. (see below)
2. Lakers now only have to win one game on the road to win the series.
3. JJ figured out how to beat MIN for long stretches of game 4.
4. Austin has been pretty bad this series, but has shown potential as the next Tony Parker in the NBA. I think we'll see him rise to the occasion.

So I think this is 50/50.

Which team has more home games left? LAL.

Also by not having won any road games yet, they put themselves in position to win the last road game, because you almost never see a higher seed lose every road game. So the Lakers have 2 home games and a road game they should be heavily favored in.

Some could say the Lakers have just one home game left

cupcakesnake wrote:

Mavrelous wrote:I don't think Luka is that diffetent than last year Luka, supporting cast and depth made the whole difference, Lakers 25 Vs Mavs 24 is a perfect lesson in the importance of team building, it sucks that LeBron is caught in the middle.of roster shift in LA, this is way too good of a performance at 40 y/o to be wasted, but the team was short on big men depth before the trade and had 0 bigs after the trade, and 0 POA players, Christie isn't that good but would have contributed 20 MPG in this matchup...

Yeah there was a lot of pre-season analysis citing Mavs Luka's performance last year, and talking about it like it was completely replicatable. By far the most obvious difference was those Mavs getting 48 minutes of high-level rim protection, while the Lakers have 0 minutes of that. On the offensive side, Luka is so thirsty to throw lobs to Livley and Gafford, and neither are on the floor. Lakers give him 7 minutes of Jaxson Hayes (good but not Lively or Gafford level as a lob threat), and then maybe a few minutes of Vando, who isn't a strong lob threat. Luka even tried to throw one to DFS and looked angry when Finney-Smith didn't immediately grow 3 inches of heigh and 10 inches of vertical.

I think the thing the Lakers and 24 Mavs do have in common is the strong bodied wings building a shell around the paint. DFS/Lebron/Vando do a half-decent impression of PJ/DJJ, but without the rim protection behind them, it's an empty shell.

Series isn't over. I still believe the Lakers could unlock an advantage on offense, and the Wolves don't always play well when they're supposed to. I think defensively, the Lakers have always been super low on options and the advantages have always been on the Wolves side.

I agree mostly, but I think LAL lack a DJJ, his ability to navigate screens, help and still close out doesn't exist on LAL roster, that's why I think Christie would have gotten 20 MPG in this series despite not being that great really, but it's Lively they miss the most.
This Lakers team is close to the 22 Mavs, LeBron/DFS mimic the Kleber/DFS tandem, and they can deal with skilled team very well, like they handled the Suns, but they just can't handle the combination of athleticism, size and speed the Wolves have.
I don't the Lakers have a chance with their 5 deep + 30 minutes of bench, either JJ trusts a bench player and he pays dividend or this is a done series, it's a long shot either way, the 2 bench guys, DDV and Reid, are outplaying the non Luka/LeBron Lakers, including Reaves, Wolves 8th man, NAW, would be a starter on the Lakers instead of Reaves because he fits better.

I think Luka and LeBron will do everything to not lose at their homecourt, in game 6 they'll be ran off the floor very quickly.

Mavrelous wrote:

cupcakesnake wrote:

Mavrelous wrote:I don't think Luka is that diffetent than last year Luka, supporting cast and depth made the whole difference, Lakers 25 Vs Mavs 24 is a perfect lesson in the importance of team building, it sucks that LeBron is caught in the middle.of roster shift in LA, this is way too good of a performance at 40 y/o to be wasted, but the team was short on big men depth before the trade and had 0 bigs after the trade, and 0 POA players, Christie isn't that good but would have contributed 20 MPG in this matchup...

Yeah there was a lot of pre-season analysis citing Mavs Luka's performance last year, and talking about it like it was completely replicatable. By far the most obvious difference was those Mavs getting 48 minutes of high-level rim protection, while the Lakers have 0 minutes of that. On the offensive side, Luka is so thirsty to throw lobs to Livley and Gafford, and neither are on the floor. Lakers give him 7 minutes of Jaxson Hayes (good but not Lively or Gafford level as a lob threat), and then maybe a few minutes of Vando, who isn't a strong lob threat. Luka even tried to throw one to DFS and looked angry when Finney-Smith didn't immediately grow 3 inches of heigh and 10 inches of vertical.

I think the thing the Lakers and 24 Mavs do have in common is the strong bodied wings building a shell around the paint. DFS/Lebron/Vando do a half-decent impression of PJ/DJJ, but without the rim protection behind them, it's an empty shell.

Series isn't over. I still believe the Lakers could unlock an advantage on offense, and the Wolves don't always play well when they're supposed to. I think defensively, the Lakers have always been super low on options and the advantages have always been on the Wolves side.

I agree mostly, but I think LAL lack a DJJ, his ability to navigate screens, help and still close out doesn't exist on LAL roster, that's why I think Christie would have gotten 20 MPG in this series despite not being that great really, but it's Lively they miss the most.
This Lakers team is close to the 22 Mavs, LeBron/DFS mimic the Kleber/DFS tandem, and they can deal with skilled team very well, like they handled the Suns, but they just can't handle the combination of athleticism, size and speed the Wolves have.
I don't the Lakers have a chance with their 5 deep + 30 minutes of bench, either JJ trusts a bench player and he pays dividend or this is a done series, it's a long shot either way, the 2 bench guys, DDV and Reid, are outplaying the non Luka/LeBron Lakers, including Reaves, Wolves 8th man, NAW, would be a starter on the Lakers instead of Reaves because he fits better.

I think they have a DJJ defensively, but it's one they can't keep on the floor due to offense. Vando is a ferocious screen navigator, but he's had a tight leash and everyone knows Vando hurts your offense in the playoffs. Vando made a couple ugly mistakes in game 3, got pulled, and had his minutes cut in game 4. I feel like the Lakers aren't generating team offense anyway, so they might as well have another tool to mess up the Wolves offense.

Agree with everything you're saying here though.

Sealab2024 wrote:

cgf wrote:I picked the wolves in 5 before the series, and after game 1. So I'm sticking to it. The lakers just don't have an answer for all of minnesota's size & weapons. LAL will outsmart them, but as long as the Wolves don't beat themselves, they are too much for this undersized california team...just like I think they will be for GSW, if the warriors get past Houston.

The problem is that it's not nearly as easy to outsmart the Wolves this year than last. Ant has leveled up in controlling the game and minimizing mistakes. He's only had like 6 turnovers the entire series. If he's controlling the flow of games without making mistakes then waiting for or expecting Minny to implode or give up easy runs becomes a tenuous strategy at best.

I could see Jimmy Butler or one of Houstons guys forcing him into more mistakes but the Lakers just don't have the defenders to stress this years version of Ant.

The Lakers also haven't found any easy offense so far. They're reliant on Luka and Lebron doing heroic things on the ball. The Luka pick & rolls aren't opening up rim attempts or open 3s, they almost all end in Luka taking tough shots (which he hits plenty of).

On the other end, the Wolves are getting the things they like. Ant and Randle are collapsing the defense at will, Jaden is destroying as that weakside secondary driver, and we're generating open 3s for Naz and Conley. The only thing the Lakers have taken away is Gobert's rim finishing, which the Wolves have been able to live with.

I think the Lakers are playing smarter, and toughing out little micro advantages on more possessions, but the advantages all lie with the Wolves.

cupcakesnake wrote:

Mavrelous wrote:

cupcakesnake wrote:
Yeah there was a lot of pre-season analysis citing Mavs Luka's performance last year, and talking about it like it was completely replicatable. By far the most obvious difference was those Mavs getting 48 minutes of high-level rim protection, while the Lakers have 0 minutes of that. On the offensive side, Luka is so thirsty to throw lobs to Livley and Gafford, and neither are on the floor. Lakers give him 7 minutes of Jaxson Hayes (good but not Lively or Gafford level as a lob threat), and then maybe a few minutes of Vando, who isn't a strong lob threat. Luka even tried to throw one to DFS and looked angry when Finney-Smith didn't immediately grow 3 inches of heigh and 10 inches of vertical.

I think the thing the Lakers and 24 Mavs do have in common is the strong bodied wings building a shell around the paint. DFS/Lebron/Vando do a half-decent impression of PJ/DJJ, but without the rim protection behind them, it's an empty shell.

Series isn't over. I still believe the Lakers could unlock an advantage on offense, and the Wolves don't always play well when they're supposed to. I think defensively, the Lakers have always been super low on options and the advantages have always been on the Wolves side.

I agree mostly, but I think LAL lack a DJJ, his ability to navigate screens, help and still close out doesn't exist on LAL roster, that's why I think Christie would have gotten 20 MPG in this series despite not being that great really, but it's Lively they miss the most.
This Lakers team is close to the 22 Mavs, LeBron/DFS mimic the Kleber/DFS tandem, and they can deal with skilled team very well, like they handled the Suns, but they just can't handle the combination of athleticism, size and speed the Wolves have.
I don't the Lakers have a chance with their 5 deep + 30 minutes of bench, either JJ trusts a bench player and he pays dividend or this is a done series, it's a long shot either way, the 2 bench guys, DDV and Reid, are outplaying the non Luka/LeBron Lakers, including Reaves, Wolves 8th man, NAW, would be a starter on the Lakers instead of Reaves because he fits better.

I think they have a DJJ defensively, but it's one they can't keep on the floor due to offense. Vando is a ferocious screen navigator, but he's had a tight leash and everyone knows Vando hurts your offense in the playoffs. Vando made a couple ugly mistakes in game 3, got pulled, and had his minutes cut in game 4. I feel like the Lakers aren't generating team offense anyway, so they might as well have another tool to mess up the Wolves offense.

Agree with everything you're saying here though.

Agree on Vando, forgot about him, and he's dirty which makes him even more effective defender, but JJ doesn't trust him, and I kinda get it, he's a very odd fit offensively, DJJ unblocked cutting angles for Luka that made him useful offensively even with the bad shooting.

Mavrelous wrote:

cupcakesnake wrote:

Mavrelous wrote:
I agree mostly, but I think LAL lack a DJJ, his ability to navigate screens, help and still close out doesn't exist on LAL roster, that's why I think Christie would have gotten 20 MPG in this series despite not being that great really, but it's Lively they miss the most.
This Lakers team is close to the 22 Mavs, LeBron/DFS mimic the Kleber/DFS tandem, and they can deal with skilled team very well, like they handled the Suns, but they just can't handle the combination of athleticism, size and speed the Wolves have.
I don't the Lakers have a chance with their 5 deep + 30 minutes of bench, either JJ trusts a bench player and he pays dividend or this is a done series, it's a long shot either way, the 2 bench guys, DDV and Reid, are outplaying the non Luka/LeBron Lakers, including Reaves, Wolves 8th man, NAW, would be a starter on the Lakers instead of Reaves because he fits better.

I think they have a DJJ defensively, but it's one they can't keep on the floor due to offense. Vando is a ferocious screen navigator, but he's had a tight leash and everyone knows Vando hurts your offense in the playoffs. Vando made a couple ugly mistakes in game 3, got pulled, and had his minutes cut in game 4. I feel like the Lakers aren't generating team offense anyway, so they might as well have another tool to mess up the Wolves offense.

Agree with everything you're saying here though.

Agree on Vando, forgot about him, and he's dirty which makes him even more effective defender, but JJ doesn't trust him, and I kinda get it, he's a very odd fit offensively, DJJ unblocked cutting angles for Luka that made him useful offensively even with the bad shooting.

Ya, DJJ is a bad shooter, but Vando is still a big drop off to non-shooter. DJJ was also able to operate as a secondary rim-runner, something Vando could probably do too... if there was a primary rim runner on the Lakers. DJJ being able to spot up a little, meant you could play him with Lively or Gafford, and he could punish collapses with timely cuts. Vando being a non-shooter means there's no way you play him with Jaxson Hayes, and there's no big rim gravity for Vando to sneak in after.