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At first this might sound ridiculous.

But SGA and Jokic were both slow starters in their career and both respectively popped up around 24 years of age.

Now in 3 seasons SGA is tracking similarly to Jokic at the same age in PER and impact stats.

But SGA has a a few extra things in his pocket:
- scoring titles threat
- will make some all-defense teams (considered 2-way)
- looks to be the best player on a potential juggernaut for the next decade



So, how likely do you think it might be for SGA to jump Jokic?
What would it take in your mind?

As a Thunder fan, the possibility is close to 0.

3 MVPs is a juggernaut achievement that only nine players in the history of the league possess.

I trust in Shai to be a consistent performer, but this is a very tough bar to clear overall.

I think it is likely. SGA in my opinion is similar to Kobe, and a lot of people rank Kobe higher than Shaq, altho Shaq was definitely better player at his absolute peak. So to me I see Shaq Kobe parallel in SGA and Jokic, in a sense Jokic is kinda most dominant player, but SGA will retire in insane scoring stats, seems like he will have more team success, more titles, and he is all time great guard, and all time great guards seem to get more universal appraisal.

Very unlikely.

Above Jokic? 2%. Above KD? 85%.

UcanUwill wrote:I think it is likely. SGA in my opinion is similar to Kobe, and a lot of people rank Kobe higher than Shaq, altho Shaq was definitely better player at his absolute peak. So to me I see Shaq Kobe parallel in SGA and Jokic, in a sense Jokic is kinda most dominant player, but SGA will retire in insane scoring stats, seems like he will have more team success, more titles, and he is all time great guard, and all time great guards seem to get more universal appraisal.

I would say SGA is likely to be further ahead of Kobe at the end of his career than Jokic is above Shaq, but Kobe’s a wild card. He has Tebow-esque popularity for reasons that have nothing to do with basketball. And in terms of the popularity-type reasons that make Kobe get ranked so high, SGA doesn’t rank that high at all.

For actual fair rankings due to their basketball abilities, I’d expect that when SGA retires, Jokic will be top 5, Shaq will be top 10, SGA will be top 20, and Kobe will be top 30.

Jokic has 5 top 2 MVP seasons, 3 MVPs, ring and WCF + unquestionable best offensive player in the league, and strong case for best offensive peak ever, with only competition being Curry.
It's a high bar to jump, SGA will never be considered the dominant offensive force Jokic is, SGA is not the defender he is reputed to be, and will have to prove it in context where he doesn't have at least 3 better defenders (Dort, JDub, Chet, Caruso, Wallace) than him on the court most of the time.
Jokic has the least PO success among top 10 all time, this is the Achillis heal SGA will have to compensate with, he can cover with titles, MVPs and scoring titles, the pathway is:
1. Beat Jokic this year and reach the finals, if Jokic wins this series, the gap becomes enormous, he would beat SGA with much inferior roster.
2. Go to at least 3 finals, win at least 2 titles, another scoring title, another MVP and another 3 years of top 3 MVP.

Improbable.

The only chance I see for this to happen is if Jokic starts to decline in the next 1-2 seasons. Based on his playstyle I easily see him otherwise still competing for MVPs in his mid 30s. I wouldn't be surprised if Shai actually starts to decline before Joker.

A non-zero amount that is basically negligible.

This is like comparing Kobe to LeBron all over again. It looks close on a surface-level but the other guy is just on a whole 'nother stratosphere

Not ridiculous at all.

Assuming he gets one, he is already on the same tier or close. Thunder are the next potential dynasty as well. If he wins 2 titles and another MVP, its pretty much not a debate.

Shai's team is set up to win multiple championships in the next five or so years they may be the favorite every year. He will at least win another MVP or two if the Thunder do what they are set up to do. Denver just fired their coach and GM and have all their money tied up into Murray and MPJ. OKCs outlook looks significantly better.

So if he can come within a MVP of Jokic and overlap him in Championships while beating him head to head numerous times in the playoffs, I could see it.

It feels like it there could be a possibility, but like was mentioned, 3 MVPs and more top 5 is not an easy achievement along with 1 championship.

As was also mentioned, Jokic would have to start declining quickly. There is a sliver of a chance but that is a tough bet right now.

CodeBreaker wrote:This is like comparing Kobe to LeBron all over again. It looks close on a surface-level but the other guy is just on a whole 'nother stratosphere

Ehh, the comparison doesn't work because SGA has an edge on Jokic in defensive impact. With Kobe and LeBron it was the reverse, LeBron had a comfortable edge on both. Here, Jokic is better, but the gap isn't as large.

I don’t count chickens before they hatch, SGA could be a first ballot HOFer and still be below Jokic

Not gonna happen. He should try to have a better individual career than Harden/Westbrook/CP3...can't reach Jokic/Steph/KD level.

iggymcfrack wrote:

UcanUwill wrote:I think it is likely. SGA in my opinion is similar to Kobe, and a lot of people rank Kobe higher than Shaq, altho Shaq was definitely better player at his absolute peak. So to me I see Shaq Kobe parallel in SGA and Jokic, in a sense Jokic is kinda most dominant player, but SGA will retire in insane scoring stats, seems like he will have more team success, more titles, and he is all time great guard, and all time great guards seem to get more universal appraisal.

I would say SGA is likely to be further ahead of Kobe at the end of his career than Jokic is above Shaq, but Kobe’s a wild card. He has Tebow-esque popularity for reasons that have nothing to do with basketball. And in terms of the popularity-type reasons that make Kobe get ranked so high, SGA doesn’t rank that high at all.

For actual fair rankings due to their basketball abilities, I’d expect that when SGA retires, Jokic will be top 5, Shaq will be top 10, SGA will be top 20, and Kobe will be top 30.

I do think Kobe has that delusional cult in particular, fans who think Kobe is GOAT candidate, but overall, I would not say Kobe has popularity that has nothing to do with Basketball, I mean he has 5 titles, no matter what you think, he had one of the most winning careers in history. I think SGA could be better player than Kobe, but very long shot he is as successful. Kobe is also a one team superstar, and pretty much every one team superstar is remember far greater than when they were playing. Thinking Dirk, MJ, Bird, all these guys were hated, but now they are universally beloved. I mean, I know MJ played for Washington, but it was so insignificant, no body cares. If Kobe was traded in 2006, I do not think he is remembered the same. This is already SGA's second team, but no one will remember his Clippers stint, if he sticks with OKC for the rest of his days, he could join that club of one team superstars.

It’s tough to say, because 3 MVPs is pretty crazy.

Ofc SGA, likely gets 1 MVP this year.

He seems likely to be in MVP conversations for maybe 5 more years.

I think the real argument for SGA would be if he and OKC win multiple rings and prevent Jokic from winning more.

Very premature until SGA gets a couple of chips and some other hardware. But I think overall just pretty unlikely.

There are other players though that I think Shai is a lot closer to that people will have some trouble accepting.