Post Mortem #24 - Golden State Warriors

Post #1 » by **Clav** » Thu May 15, 2025 4:28 am

Warriors, after losing Curry for the series, fall 1-4 to Minnesota and are the 24th team eliminated.

Previous Threads:

Spoiler:

Time of death: May 14, 2025
Record at elimination: 48-34 (5-7 in playoffs, 1-0 in play-in)
Head coach: Steve Kerr

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/yearly
Contract summary:

Curry – 2yr/120M remain
Butler – 2yr/110M
Draymond – extension eligible, or 2yr/52M remain (final year 27M PO)
Gary Payton II – UFA
Hield – 3yr/30M remain (final year 10M PO)
Looney – UFA
Moody – 3yr/35M remain

Rookie Scale/minimums (varies on 2-4 years remaining):
Jonathan Kuminga – RFA
Brandin Podziemski – 2yr remain
Trayce Jackson Davis – 2yr remain
Gui Santos – 2M TO
Quinten Post – 2M TO
Pat Spencer – UFA
Kevin Knox – UFA
Braxton Key - UFA

TW
Taran Armstrong
Jackson Rowe

Dead-cap – <500k off the books this season, none next.

PICKS for 2025 draft:
MIA 2nd

A SMALL SEASON REVIEW:
https://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/gs/seasontype/2

It was a season of ups and downs for GSW. Here’s a tl;dr version of the year; trade Klay, play .500 ball, trade for Butler, play well-over .500 ball, beat Memphis in the play-in, upset the 2-seed Rockets, and lose Curry to injury, lose grasp on playoff scoring, and exit in 2nd round to Wolves.
The team fought valiantly, I think the ceiling of the team is increased with Butler’s improved fit and defense, but they must have Curry on the court to be in championship conversations, full stop.

Here’s my bigger picture recap…
Early in the offseason, the club was in a perplexing situation with long-tenured sharpshooter, and franchise favourite, Klay Thompson. A legacy contract or a new-era ? They chose the latter and performed an NBA record 6-team sign and trade deal to send Klay to Dallas.
In that deal, the Warriors took on Buddy Hield (the only guy who played in every game this season for GSW) and Kyle Anderson. That iteration of GSW was playing average basketball.

Jimmy Butler’s deteriorating relationship with the Heat had been a massive talking point all season and who swept in to collect the disgruntled star? None other than GSW, sending Wiggins and Anderson to the Heat (this was also a complicated multi-team trade). Props to the GM team in GSW for essentially turning Klay into Butler and giving Curry, Green, Kerr and co. a chance to win it all again.

GSW played a lot better with Butler on the roster and it was a close race to the playoff spots. The Warriors had an epic RS fight with many Western Conf. teams to get the 6th seed or better, but two absolute late-season nail biting losses confirmed them to the play-in.

Those were the Spurs GW shot (Barnes) and the OT thriller on the final day of the season with LAC. Both losses for GSW sent them to the play-in vs Memphis. It was a tough game but GSW showed their overall positive play with Curry/Green/Butler and pieces playing tough basketball. The playoff performances show that as well, handing Minnesota a G1 loss even when Curry exited with his ailment.

We reach the issue at the center of this team; all of the new big-3 are a bit older and these injuries can pop up. It will be 100% critical for the team to retain health and still get positive results in the RS to fight through this stacked conference, and other players will be necessary to shoulder the weight.

Young SG Podziemski played decent in the RS, but not so much in the playoffs. Kuminga had a very sporadic year with positive moments, injury, then benching and re-integration to the Butler lineups. He’s up for a contract this summer. It’s pretty clear that there’s upgrades necessary with the No. 5 through 10 spots on the roster, and that includes Kuminga and Moody’s future with the franchise. They have one pick in the second round to use, unless trades are on the horizon. How do you rate the Warriors' season, and their outlook going forward ?

cpower · Post #2 » by **cpower** » Thu May 15, 2025 4:34 am

It's pretty clear the team does not have enough talent, and lack of shooting. Trade JK/TJD whatever we can add to get more shooting and size.

jack612 · Post #3 » by **jack612** » Thu May 15, 2025 4:39 am

Seems like Jimmy may be cooked

art_tatum · Post #4 » by **art_tatum** » Thu May 15, 2025 4:41 am

Don't see it with their youth.
Podz lack of shooting partly caused the rockets to go to 7
And partly caused the wolves series from being 2-3 instead of 1-4.
Kuminga has talent but was overrated by the team for too long and should've been traded. He just doesn't fit with kerr.
Curry should've tried playing imo. You don't get shots anymore at that age.
They hope they can swing some sort of kuminga + green+ picks+ more for giannis.

We all know the org isn't firing kerr
And outside of curry and maybe butler who was pretty up and down, their team just lacks talent and shooting.

Chuck Everett · Post #5 » by **Chuck Everett** » Thu May 15, 2025 4:42 am

Not sure what they do. Kuminga is probably S&T away. Do Looney and Payton II return? If not, who replaces them? Dunleavy's got his work cut out for him.

Marvin Martian · Post #6 » by **Marvin Martian** » Thu May 15, 2025 4:43 am

Let's be honest. This patchwork team was made to keep Curry happy until retirement. This isn't about championships anymore.

Sealab2024 · Post #7 » by **Sealab2024** » Thu May 15, 2025 4:44 am

Marvin Martian wrote:Let's be honest. This patchwork team was made to keep Curry happy until retirement. This isn't about championships anymore.

There's truth in there a lot of people won't admit.

Mamba81p · Post #8 » by **Mamba81p** » Thu May 15, 2025 4:45 am

They need some tweaks, but mostly for playoffs. Next year, regular season should be much better, since they have Butler from game 1, so they should have a good shot at top 4, and most likely stay out of play-in. They don't need anything special from Butler in RS just like they didn't need it this year, just hold the fort while Steph sits, and move the ball and get from FTs. Without Steph there is no game plan. There was none in RS while Curry was injured, and obviously not in playoffs either.
RS depends a lot on what the other teams are doing. Can the Clippers stay healthy all season? Will the Nuggets look much better under Adelman? What is Houston going to do? OKC is probably the only certain team.

Of course nothing else matters if Curry falls of a cliff, like Harden in 2021/2022 or Hakeem in 1997/1998. There is no fix for that.

But what they can control in the offseason is to improve the supporting cast. Kuminga cannot stay in the team, because he just can't play when they run the offense with Curry in it. He almost never makes the right decision. He is just a trade chip for them at this point: either S&T to get a TPE or sign a short contract to trade in the future. Hopefully for them this series will help with the former. He can score, and he should do well with another playbook/team.
Do they trust Pods to play better in postseason, and write this off as just a first appearance?
Buddy Hield is streaky but also cheap, and he proved he can play defense.
As I said, Spencer, Santos are not NBA players, they belong in G-League.
I think they need to bring Looney and GP2 back, because otherwise there are just too many holes to fill

The old guys can't carry a team in the playoffs game after game. They need to take turns and rest, so they don't have much room for error in playoffs. When an old guys plays great, like Butler in game 3 the supporting cast needs to provide something. You can't win a championship by throwing games away like they did it twice vs Rockets.

giberish · Post #9 » by **giberish** » Thu May 15, 2025 4:45 am

Well my playoff hopes for the team were to:
1) Do better than the Lakers and
2) Be competitive enough that mostly running it back isn't hopeless.

While unfortunate due to Curry's injury the team can say that it was likely to at least be in the WCF with good health. So I'd say both were accomplished (it would help if Minny wins some games against OKC and isn't just crushed).

There isn't a lot the team can do for major moves. The most significant issue is Kuminga. I have to think some other teams see more in him than the Warriors do. He's an RFA so GS can presumably get something back in a S&T, but I wouldn't expect much value. BYC issues make that more difficult to make a deal, especially with the limited cap space. Maybe he ends up resigning with GS due to the limited FA market. While both he and the team would probably prefer a shorter deal due to the difference in salary expectations anything under 3 years doesn't come with Bird rights if traded.

The team needs would be at SG - ideally a strong defender and solid shooter (what Melton looked to be if healthy), a stretch-5 that holds up on defense, and probably an extra PF/SF option if Kuminga is moved. Unfortunately they just don't have a lot of moveable assets or much salary flexibility so they'll have to be bargain hunting.

With reasonably good offseason moves and health luck they should still be a playoff team next year and perhaps a very, very outside title contender (or at least a tough out). The old will catch up to the team soon (perhaps even next year though I think 2026-7 is the year they fall off into the lottery. I believe the team knows this as well which is why they've been very reluctant to move future 1sts during likely rebuilding seasons. They might move the 2026 1st (which they can do after the draft) for some last-ditch help.

Mamba81p · Post #10 » by **Mamba81p** » Thu May 15, 2025 5:06 am

Clav wrote:Warriors, after losing Curry for the series, fall 1-4 to Minnesota and are the 24th team eliminated.

Here’s my bigger picture recap…
Early in the offseason, the club was in a perplexing situation with long-tenured sharpshooter, and franchise favourite, Klay Thompson. A legacy contract or a new-era ? They chose the latter and performed an NBA record 6-team sign and trade deal to send Klay to Dallas.
In that deal, the Warriors took on Buddy Hield (the only guy who played in every game this season for GSW) and Kyle Anderson. That iteration of GSW was playing average basketball.

Jimmy Butler’s deteriorating relationship with the Heat had been a massive talking point all season and who swept in to collect the disgruntled star? None other than GSW, sending Wiggins and Anderson to the Heat (this was also a complicated multi-team trade). Props to the GM team in GSW for essentially turning Klay into Butler and giving Curry, Green, Kerr and co. a chance to win it all again.

GSW played a lot better with Butler on the roster and it was a close race to the playoff spots. The Warriors had an epic RS fight with many Western Conf. teams to get the 6th seed or better, but two absolute late-season nail biting losses confirmed them to the play-in.

Those were the Spurs GW shot (Barnes) and the OT thriller on the final day of the season with LAC. Both losses for GSW sent them to the play-in vs Memphis. It was a tough game but GSW showed their overall positive play with Curry/Green/Butler and pieces playing tough basketball. The playoff performances show that as well, handing Minnesota a G1 loss even when Curry exited with his ailment.

We reach the issue at the center of this team; all of the new big-3 are a bit older and these injuries can pop up. It will be 100% critical for the team to retain health and still get positive results in the RS to fight through this stacked conference, and other players will be necessary to shoulder the weight.

Young SG Podziemski played decent in the RS, but not so much in the playoffs. Kuminga had a very sporadic year with positive moments, injury, then benching and re-integration to the Butler lineups. He’s up for a contract this summer. It’s pretty clear that there’s upgrades necessary with the No. 5 through 10 spots on the roster, and that includes Kuminga and Moody’s future with the franchise. They have one pick in the second round to use, unless trades are on the horizon. How do you rate the Warriors' season, and their outlook going forward ?

Great recap. Only one thing I would add: The record was 25-26 when they traded for Butler, but they were playing much worse than that.
They started the season 12-3 but then teams figured them out and went 13-23 until Butler came in. They were beating only bad teams. They did very well against Wolves ironically, but Wolves were very different then as well. After that start I think they had only 1 quality win vs OKC at home. Celtics beat them by 40, even Suns were destroying them.

facothomas22 · Post #11 » by **facothomas22** » Thu May 15, 2025 5:06 am

The Warriors took their best at trying to win a Championship and for a while they looked like the best team in the Western Conference outside of the Thunder. However the Stephen Curry injury ruined any chance of the them making much noise beyond beating a young inexperienced Rockets team in 7 games. The Warriors are in tough spot going forward. A lot of salary committed to 3 older players. Their young players are fine, but nothing amazing. The Western Conference is only going to get tougher from here. I'm expecting the Spurs, Rockets,Mavericks all will get much better ether by internal growth, by making a major trade, or a combination of both. The Thunder/Nuggets/Timberwolves are Contenders in the West and are here to stay for a while. The Grizzlies are going to be tough team, unless they decide to go for a full rebuild, which is quite doubtful. The Clippers will always be a team that can win 50+ per season if healthy and they are a younger team than the Warriors. There's chance that the Warriors in mid/late February are somewhere around that 10-12 seed range and tough conversation may end up being had if they just should fully punt the season to get a higher pick.

shi-woo · Post #12 » by **shi-woo** » Thu May 15, 2025 5:09 am

It's wild to think that if the front office of this team was even remotely competent after the KD signing Steph probably matches MJ in rings...

This team and Denver have been the poster child of being just one piece away for the a while now. Well, go get that 1 piece Mike!

Steph, Dray, and Butler is the core of this team. You know it works, and on both sides of the ball. You know Kerr has a fantastic offense that anyone who fits it can just be plug and play. Go find those players.

Sign and trade Kuminga. That 30 point game is a blessing and a curse, because some team might sign him to a 30+ mil, but now you have a chance to get a guy in return. I'm expecting a S&T to the Nets for Cam Johnson like most people.

After that, they literally have nothing they can do. Moody, Podz, and Heild are all on below market deals and not worth trading. Same with Trace and Post. All this team can do is hope for the best outcome from a Kuminga deal. Bring back GP2 and Looney for a vet min, and try to find a way to get some of those extra picks teams have floating around in this draft.

This team needs to find a backup pg that can actually play the game, and I would try to use Trace/Post as a way to get a pick in this draft to go after Clayton or another solid upperclass guard that can give them 10-20 mins

Green- Post- Looney
Johnson
Butler- Buddy- Gui
Podz- Moody- GP2
Curry- Clayton

That team can hang with anyone in a 7 game series if healthy.

Mamba81p · Post #13 » by **Mamba81p** » Thu May 15, 2025 5:25 am

shi-woo wrote:
Sign and trade Kuminga. That 30 point game is a blessing and a curse, because some team might sign him to a 30+ mil, but now you have a chance to get a guy in return. I'm expecting a S&T to the Nets for Cam Johnson like most people.

After that, they literally have nothing they can do. Moody, Podz, and Heild are all on below market deals and not worth trading. Same with Trace and Post. All this team can do is hope for the best outcome from a Kuminga deal. Bring back GP2 and Looney for a vet min, and try to find a way to get some of those extra picks teams have floating around in this draft.

This team needs to find a backup pg that can actually play the game, and I would try to use Trace/Post as a way to get a pick in this draft to go after Clayton or another solid upperclass guard that can give them 10-20 mins

Green- Post- Looney
Johnson
Butler- Buddy- Gui
Podz- Moody- GP2
Curry- Clayton

That team can hang with anyone in a 7 game series if healthy.

If they get Cam that would put them in luxury tax, so that means they still have the taxpayer MLE, right?

Gregoire · Post #14 » by **Gregoire** » Thu May 15, 2025 5:26 am

Its a shame that one injury give us different team. Its a testament of Curry greatness. Healthy GSW I see as favorite over any team sans OKC. Just bad luck with injuries, like in 2016 or 2019.

Warriorguy · Post #15 » by **Warriorguy** » Thu May 15, 2025 5:55 am

Young players can get better.
Podz, JK, Moody, Post, Davis are years away from their peak and a can part of a playoff rotation.

GP2 and Looney have deep ties to the organization and I think will resign for team friendly . 1and 1 deals to help the cap.

Can Curry, Green, Butler remain at the level they played after the trade I think they can to get top 4 seed depending on health.

Black Jack · Post #16 » by **Black Jack** » Thu May 15, 2025 6:02 am

I hope the FO goes all in on the next 2 years. Forget timelines let's try to use assets to get enough that Curry can lead a solid run. watching him have to be the rebounder to close out Houston was ridiculous.

vxmike · Post #17 » by **vxmike** » Thu May 15, 2025 6:19 am

They don’t have enough offense. Besides Curry and Butler nobody on this team can create a shot.

Horrific asset management from these guys the last few years. Blown #2 pick on Wiseman and Moody is underwhelming. They failed to trade Kuminga and Podz while these guys had much higher value foe win-now players. Today they have a fraction of the value they did last summer.

Not sure what they can do other than a MLE guy this summer. A Kuminga SnT won’t return much.

DaPessimist · Post #18 » by **DaPessimist** » Thu May 15, 2025 6:28 am

2nd round exit was the expected peak for this team. Adding Jimmy gave the media some hope, but we were never a real contender.

Moving forward, we're pretty much a 2nd round treadmill team, but it is what it is. The ride has to come to an end eventually. I'm still shocked we pulled out that '22 title to be honest. :lol:

Tottery · Post #19 » by **Tottery** » Thu May 15, 2025 6:32 am

Credit is due to the Wolves. Once Curry went down all they had to do was focus on Butler and they coasted. Plenty of times he'd get to his spot only for defenders to collapse on him and other players missing shots.

That said, Warriors will probably avoid the play in next season, but they need to make a change for the post season. Everyone should be on the chopping block except Curry/Green/Butler imo. I would say Green as well, but they will never do it.

Tottery · Post #20 » by **Tottery** » Thu May 15, 2025 6:34 am

DaPessimist wrote:2nd round exit was the expected peak for this team. Adding Jimmy gave the media some hope, but we were never a real contender.

Moving forward, we're pretty much a 2nd round treadmill team, but it is what it is. The ride has to come to an end eventually. I'm still shocked we pulled out that '22 title to be honest.

idk. With Curry this series would still be going imo, but there is much needed improvement to the roster. Butler is a bandaid and definitely helps when Curry goes to the bench, but more is needed.

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