There's no way around it, and I think this should be a separate post from the Giannis trade request. The Bucks are in deep, deep trouble.
2025 – 2nd Round (own): from Detroit via Pistons/Clippers/Portland/Washington chain
2026 – 1st round pick that New Orleans Pelican can swap, 2nd Round (own): top‑55 protected via Utah, but still directly theirs
2028 – 2nd Round (own): retained, no outgoing conditions noted
2031 – 2nd Round (own): part of long-term retained assets
2030 – 1st Round (own with swap rights): Portland holds swap rights but Bucks keep the pick
2031 – 1st Round (own): Bucks retain this unless traded
For their cap space:
2025–26:
Total salary: ~$164.8M
Still over the cap
No cap space (above 1st apron, possibly under 2nd apron
2026–27:
Total salary: ~$144.4M
Salary cap (projected): ~$152–155M
Slightly below cap possible, but likely still over due to hold/cap mechanics
Best-case space with cuts: ~$5–10M (still not "true" cap space for big moves)
2027–28 (Major Opportunity Year)
Total salary (projected): ~$65.3M
Giannis player option: $62.8M
Cap projection for 2027–28: ~$160–170M
Estimated cap space: ~$95–105M
Even with Giannis on the roster at ~$63M, they could:
Sign another max free agent
Fill out roster with high-level role players
So in the grand scheme of things, the only time that the Bucks will be able to field a decent competitive roster is in 2027-28 off season. They don't have their own first round pick until 2031, and 2027 /29 are swap right protected. If they bank on fielding a good team, there is a chance that Giannis might not opt in to his player option. In that case he'll walk away completely free to choose where he wants to play. Although I think Bucks are able to offer him the most salary
The Bucks best case scenario is if New Orleans gets in the lottery next year and so are the Bucks. New Orleans getting like a top 3, and the Bucks are drafting after that. Better yet they find a way to get out of Lillards contract. Then in 2027 they somehow sign free agents and a star max guy. They'll have to do some efficient cap spending though. Oh, and Giannis re-signs.
That's a tremendous amount of If's.
If I was a GM or a manager, I'd be working with GIannis to see the best option for the team, Giannis, and how to turn around the franchise. Cause let's be honest, this is a horrible horrible situation right now. You can roll the dice to try to get cap space in two years, but Giannis might simply have enough and want to compete again at his age. On the other hand, would your team be marketable to sign a free agent? Could you have the ability to without overpaying guys?
What the Bucks are doing now, "Business as usual" is a really, really bad choice of managing the team. And the onus is on the GM and management that got the team there.
