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Game 4: Friday June 13, 8:30pm ET on ABC





Continued from here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2462792

At least we don’t have to wait 4 days until the next game

Pacers in 6, it's over.

OKC can't match Pacers physicality on the road because our bench is terrible. Pacers doing a terrific defensive job on Shai so JDub gotta step up but he's scared to attack.

Dadouv47 wrote:Pacers in 6, it's over.

OKC can't match Pacers physicality on the road because our bench is terrible. Pacers doing a terrific defensive job on Shai so JDub gotta step up but he's scared to attack.

I respect what you are attempting to do here

Dadouv47 wrote:Pacers in 6, it's over.

OKC can't match Pacers physicality on the road because our bench is terrible. Pacers doing a terrific defensive job on Shai so JDub gotta step up but he's scared to attack.

Lol. Nice reverse jinx attempt.

azcatz11 wrote:

Dadouv47 wrote:Pacers in 6, it's over.

OKC can't match Pacers physicality on the road because our bench is terrible. Pacers doing a terrific defensive job on Shai so JDub gotta step up but he's scared to attack.

I respect what you are attempting to do here

sad part is that I really think it. Been like this for 4 series...I don't see why it would change now.

Dadouv47 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:

Dadouv47 wrote:Pacers in 6, it's over.

OKC can't match Pacers physicality on the road because our bench is terrible. Pacers doing a terrific defensive job on Shai so JDub gotta step up but he's scared to attack.

I respect what you are attempting to do here

sad part is that I really think it. Been like this for 4 series...I don't see why it would change now.

OKc are literally still the betting favorites at -250 lol. They haven't lost back-to-back games the Playoffs and only did it twice in the regular season. They bounce back better than any team the league after a loss. They went down 2-1 to Denver too and we all know how that turned out. I fully expect a Game 4 victory and a big game from SGA and even J-Will and Caruso.

OKC lacks scareless guys on their bench like Mathurin, Mcconnell or Toppin to a lesser extent. Wiggins and Joe are good regular season players but they played terrible all postseason (yeah Wiggins had an incredible game 3 but it was his only good game this postseason). We have a 7 players rotation with only one guard coming off the bench in Caruso and the only true scorer not named Shai is JDub but he's scared and unreliable.

Good news for OKc.

Castle Black wrote:

Dadouv47 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:
I respect what you are attempting to do here

sad part is that I really think it. Been like this for 4 series...I don't see why it would change now.

OKc are literally still the betting favorites at -250 lol. They haven't lost back-to-back games the Playoffs and only did it twice in the regular season. They bounce back better than any team the league after a loss. They went down 2-1 to Denver too and we all know how that turned out. I fully expect a Game 4 victory and a big game from SGA and even J-Will and Caruso.

so what? Pacers were underdogs almost all POs. I wanted to bet money on the Pacers before last night game because I thought it was +EV but I just didn't want to bet against my team. I just don't trust our squad enough. Pacers are mentally stronger and physically stronger and we are one road lose away of being 1-3 so yeah it's a tough situation. I think we win the championship if somehow we can win tomorrow but I just don't like the odds. At this point I think it's more likely Pacers just gets scared of winning than OKC figures it out.

I'm hoping IND comes out swinging and this is a blowout.

OKC look shook and tired in that 4th and I didn't see any easy adjustments they can use. They know this is must win, and they know the only thing that has worked for them is forcing TO's, but they weren't able to just mug IND on their homefloor like they were able to do in OKC.

I understand why Dags continue to start Wallace but I think we see the switch to Caruso starting in this must win game. It's the only answer they have to all the off ball picks/movement IND is throwing at them. Dork is just getting passed around from 1 hot hand to the other, having Caruso might give them the ability to smother a lot of that action early, especially with his and JWill showing they can guard Pascal and Toppin. At this point, OKC's bench could use another scorer like Wallace, and I think Dags needs to experiment a little more with Wiggins or Joe. They need a heat check off the bench, similar to what Obi or Mathurin have been able to do, but it's not their with Alex putting everything into defense.

I'm still waiting for Turner to have a big game. He's been spectacular on defense for most of this series, and has been decent in the post on offense, but he is missing so many wide open 3s. Same with Chet. Both these dudes need to make their 3s, and whichever does, it just opens everything up. I'll def. be looking out for this game 4, as I see it being the X factor.

Another thing i'm looking out for is the adjustments the Thunder make on offense. Low key IND is looking more and more comfortable on that end, and without the bailout regular season whistle OKC really hasn't looked good on that end outside of SGA in the midrange, and Dort making a ton of shots.

Hoping Pacers protect the ball, match the physicality, and dont get frustrated at easy calls early. I want this to be a good game, but an easy W for the Pacers. Everyone knows this game is essentially for the trophy, so it's going to be a game 7 atmosphere.

Refs, just let them f'in play please

Castle Black wrote:Good news for OKc.

Read on Twitter

Sonics won in 1979 being the lower seed, after losing G1. So they were 2-1, and won. That on top of my head, so I doubt that stat.

Well, G3 was interesting, for sure.

Going back to the West semifinals, I still think Denver slightly dominated from 3 to 6, just to lose due to their lack of depth at the end of games. This led to lack of bench production AND Jokic, Murray and Gordon mostly being gassed and/or somehow injured. That also made them not able to compete in the decisive G7.

Yesterday game I felt the same. Pacers were in control, meaning that the game was played on their terms. And the stats confirm this.

They won by 9 despite that they generated 1.12 xPTS/shot vs 1.07 made, so they shot worse that expected. And OKC shot better than expected, 1.05xPTS/shot vs 1.09 made. So, almost +10 points in favor of OKC just for shot discrepancy or performance.

Also, Indiana lost the rebound battle. The key, as it was before, as it will be until the end, the TO's battle.

So Mark Daigneault has work to do if he doesn't want to be in the 3-1 hole after G4, with the better roster. Also SGA should look at himself, this kind of games is where he just cannot play within his comfort zone, and be ok with a loss.

G4 is the new G7. Pacers better think they have not accomplished nothing yet, if they split at home OKC regains the odds.

Castle Black wrote:

Dadouv47 wrote:

azcatz11 wrote:
I respect what you are attempting to do here

sad part is that I really think it. Been like this for 4 series...I don't see why it would change now.

OKc are literally still the betting favorites at -250 lol. They haven't lost back-to-back games the Playoffs and only did it twice in the regular season. They bounce back better than any team the league after a loss. They went down 2-1 to Denver too and we all know how that turned out. I fully expect a Game 4 victory and a big game from SGA and even J-Will and Caruso.

I don't really care what the Vegas odds say. The pacers also haven't lost B2B in more than 3 months. I feel like it's a 50/50 series at this point. At some point we have to acknowledge this is an elite team

OKC favored by 6. i do think they wang to prove that near-70 win regular season was not a fluke + they were in a similar spot against the Nuggets with a mighty Jokic. Cheering for the Pacers here but really not confident betting on them, heck Thunder might even get the easy cover here.


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I am very confused. Hard to believe the Pacers are two games away from NBA championship. Didn't see this coming. This was the game where it looked like Pacers are truly serious, its two evenly matched teams, but one now has the lead. Even when it was 1-1, I was taking OKC all the way to the bank, now I am truly scared,

SGA should be happy Nico is not the GM of OKC.

Chuck Everett wrote:OKC is the youngest team in the entire league. It is incredible that they were as dominant as they were during the season because the youngest team in the NBA is usually a borderline playoff team at best.

However, if they do lose the series, it's just another reminder that the regular season records no longer mean much. And the Thunder might be missing a guy who is around 6-9, who could slide into the 4 spot when they go small and let Jalen Williams be a 3-man more often. Their small ball against Indiana is legit small even with guys having long wingspans and is thus completely negated against this particular opponent.

Thinking about it though, those kinds of guys might be on Portland's roster unfortunately.

It's really hard for a young team to win a championship in their first deep run. It's an absolutely exhausting mental and physical grind, you have to adjust to the adjustments in real time, and you don't really know how to do it until you do.

Andri wrote:

Castle Black wrote:Good news for OKc.

Read on Twitter

Sonics won in 1979 being the lower seed, after losing G1. So they were 2-1, and won. That on top of my head, so I doubt that stat.

That was under the 2-3-2 format. It was changed to 2-2-1-1 recently in 2014 so that stat itself is useless

As i kept saying thoughout these playoffs, very much depends on the agenda the officals want to project on the game. I felt in game 3 already all 50/50 calls went against the home team - but that was surprising to noone. Indiana has done a good job at adjusting the physicality early in game 3, and not get scared by the multitude of early foul calls on them (and none on OKC). They just kept going with the same level and only one player really fouled out. I think that is the key to beating OKC. As blatant as the officiating difference is on both ends, it doesnt fit in the narrative to foul a complete starting lineup out. No other opponent of OKC figured that out before this series.