Where are you more likely to find the best player?
Posted: Fri Jun 27, 2025 9:47 am
This is in relation to the value of tanking vs building from the middle. In the last few decades, where was the best player of each draft found (talking about prime play)?
top5 or mid/late lottery or out of the lottery
Leaving 2024 out...
2003 LeBron James Top5
2004 Dwight Howard Top5
2005 Chris Paul Top5
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge Top5
2007 Kevin Durant Top5
2008 Derrick Rose Top5
2009 Steph Curry mid/late lottery
2010 Paul George mid/late lottery
2011 Kawhi Leonard out of the lottery
2012 Anthony Davis Top5
2013 Giannis Antetokounpo out of the lottery
2014 Nikola Jokic out of the lottery
2015 Davin Booker mid/late lottery
2016 Pascal Siakam out of the lottery (by ws it should be Domas)
2017 Jason Tatum Top5
2018 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander mid/late lottery (even if I still think it should be Luka)
2019 Ja Morant Top5 (whatever, this can be heavily disputed)
2020 Tyrese Haliburton mid/late lottery (or Edwards)
stopping here because it would be too early for other guys.
What is interesting is that, as went deep to the 2000s, you were much more likely to find the best player out of the top5 (5 mid/later lottery, 4 out of it) than in the top5 (3).
If you go further back in time, it was not that common:
1999 Manu
1998 Dirk
1996 Kobe
1989 Kemp or Hardaway
it was linked to the League underrating internationals or high schoolers.
It seems that now it al became much more unpredictable, and this happened after the forced highschoolers to declare one year later.
Why to do you think this is happening?
My take, from a team building perspective, is that the relative value of a top5 over a pick is not that much higher. It might be better to have multiple first rounders rather than one top5.
top5 or mid/late lottery or out of the lottery
Leaving 2024 out...
2003 LeBron James Top5
2004 Dwight Howard Top5
2005 Chris Paul Top5
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge Top5
2007 Kevin Durant Top5
2008 Derrick Rose Top5
2009 Steph Curry mid/late lottery
2010 Paul George mid/late lottery
2011 Kawhi Leonard out of the lottery
2012 Anthony Davis Top5
2013 Giannis Antetokounpo out of the lottery
2014 Nikola Jokic out of the lottery
2015 Davin Booker mid/late lottery
2016 Pascal Siakam out of the lottery (by ws it should be Domas)
2017 Jason Tatum Top5
2018 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander mid/late lottery (even if I still think it should be Luka)
2019 Ja Morant Top5 (whatever, this can be heavily disputed)
2020 Tyrese Haliburton mid/late lottery (or Edwards)
stopping here because it would be too early for other guys.
What is interesting is that, as went deep to the 2000s, you were much more likely to find the best player out of the top5 (5 mid/later lottery, 4 out of it) than in the top5 (3).
If you go further back in time, it was not that common:
1999 Manu
1998 Dirk
1996 Kobe
1989 Kemp or Hardaway
it was linked to the League underrating internationals or high schoolers.
It seems that now it al became much more unpredictable, and this happened after the forced highschoolers to declare one year later.
Why to do you think this is happening?
My take, from a team building perspective, is that the relative value of a top5 over a pick is not that much higher. It might be better to have multiple first rounders rather than one top5.