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Cavs
Knicks
Magic
Bucks
Pistons
Hawks
Celtics
Pacers

Toronto for their sake better over perform and exceed the consensus expectations because for the amount of money they have tied in their “core” they should be in contending conversations.

As the rosters stand right now, I'd probably go with the following. Feel pretty good about the top 2 and 3 and 4, after that, who knows.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. New York Knicks
3. Orlando Magic
4. Atlanta Hawks
5. Miami Heat
6. Detroit Pistons
7. Milwaukee Bucks
8. Philadelphia 76ers

9. Toronto Raptors
10. Boston Celtics
11. Chicago Bulls
12. Indiana Pacers
13. Charlotte Hornets
14. Washington Wizards
15. Brooklyn Nets

1. Magic
2. Knicks
3. Cavs
4. Hawks
5. Pistons
6. Raptors
7. Heat
8. Sixers

9. Boston
10. Bucks

I'll do tiers.

Knicks / Cavs / Magic / Pistons
Hawks / Bucks / Heat
Pacers / Raptors / Celtics
6ers / Bulls
Nets / Hornets / Wizards

You should take out Clev, NY, Orl (all clearly playoff teams), plus BRK, Wash and list the other 10. Let people vote 5 times (assuming Clev, NY, Orl are locks)

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:Toronto for their sake better over perform and exceed the consensus expectations because for the amount of money they have tied in their “core” they should be in contending conversations.

Should they though? The team is in the upper end of mid-pack in salaries right now, it's not like they went out there and loaded up on max players to compete, they have a roster with half the guys on rookie deals. They'll probably end up being a play-in team or lower playoff seed and that's right around where the salaries would project them to be (not that salary spending = wins, but whatever).

kwajo wrote:

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:Toronto for their sake better over perform and exceed the consensus expectations because for the amount of money they have tied in their “core” they should be in contending conversations.

Should they though? The team is in the upper end of mid-pack in salaries right now, it's not like they went out there and loaded up on max players to compete, they have a roster with half the guys on rookie deals. They'll probably end up being a play-in team or lower playoff seed and that's right around where the salaries would project them to be (not that salary spending = wins, but whatever).

Top-12 payroll in the league (among teams that are clearly contending).

Top-6 in the East.

Neck and neck in payroll with teams like Denver/LAC/Philly

If you have this much money allocated to your core and do NOT having contending aspirations something is terribly terribly wrong.

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:

kwajo wrote:

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:Toronto for their sake better over perform and exceed the consensus expectations because for the amount of money they have tied in their “core” they should be in contending conversations.

Should they though? The team is in the upper end of mid-pack in salaries right now, it's not like they went out there and loaded up on max players to compete, they have a roster with half the guys on rookie deals. They'll probably end up being a play-in team or lower playoff seed and that's right around where the salaries would project them to be (not that salary spending = wins, but whatever).

Top-12 payroll in the league (among teams that are clearly contending).

Top-6 in the East.

Neck and neck in payroll with teams like Denver/LAC/Philly

If you have this much money allocated to your core and do NOT having contending aspirations something is terribly terribly wrong.

I think there's a bit more nuance than this.

Duffman100 wrote:

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:

kwajo wrote:
Should they though? The team is in the upper end of mid-pack in salaries right now, it's not like they went out there and loaded up on max players to compete, they have a roster with half the guys on rookie deals. They'll probably end up being a play-in team or lower playoff seed and that's right around where the salaries would project them to be (not that salary spending = wins, but whatever).

Top-12 payroll in the league (among teams that are clearly contending).

Top-6 in the East.

Neck and neck in payroll with teams like Denver/LAC/Philly

If you have this much money allocated to your core and do NOT having contending aspirations something is terribly terribly wrong.

I think there's a bit more nuance than this.

I'm sure you're right, but still.... the money is the money.

Being expensive and bad is a terrible combination.

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:Toronto for their sake better over perform and exceed the consensus expectations because for the amount of money they have tied in their “core” they should be in contending conversations.

I "guaranteeee" Toronto will overperform this season. After all, we have the Serbian Ted Lasso as our coach. Everything is positive with Darko.

kg01 wrote:

Duffman100 wrote:

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:
Top-12 payroll in the league (among teams that are clearly contending).

Top-6 in the East.

Neck and neck in payroll with teams like Denver/LAC/Philly

If you have this much money allocated to your core and do NOT having contending aspirations something is terribly terribly wrong.

I think there's a bit more nuance than this.

I'm sure you're right, but still.... the money is the money.

Being expensive and bad is a terrible combination.

The problem with the Raptors is we don't know if they're 'bad'. This where some of (and not all) of the nuance comes into play.

We know a team that wasn't trying to win last year and was playing their rookies and 3rd stringers high minutes won 30 games. We know that a lot of the upcoming season is dictated by the health of Quickley and Ingram.

They're the biggest range of outcome teams in the NBA. They could win 32-34 games, they could be in the 43-48 range. It's really tough to say.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2. New York Knicks
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
3. Atlanta Hawks
4. Orlando Magic
5. Milwaukee Bucks
6. Boston Celtics
7. Detroit Pistons
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
8. Indiana Pacers

aad wrote:Cavs
Knicks
Magic
Bucks
Pistons
Hawks
Celtics
Pacers

The last 2 teams in your list (Celtics and Pacers) have a big drop off in talent for next season, so I don't expect them to be among the top 8 teams in East. Instead of them, I will pick 76ers and Raptors/Heat.

Magic_Johnny12 wrote:Toronto for their sake better over perform and exceed the consensus expectations because for the amount of money they have tied in their “core” they should be in contending conversations.

The Suns had one of the highest payrolls last season and could not even make the play in.

1. Knicks
2. Cavs

I have no clue about the rest.

Pacers lost Haliburton and Turner...not sure if they are in the top 8, but will be on the cusp.

Celtics lost Tatum, Holiday, Porzingis and likely will lose Horford...not sure they are top 8 either. Losing top tier talent at the point guard, center and small forward is a huge loss.

Philly is a team that is loaded with talent and if Embiid or George can stay healthy, they should be in the top 6.

I would say Miami and Toronto will be competing in that 7-9 range. Miami still has a great coaching staff, and some talent with Bam, Herro, Wiggins, Powell, Rozier etc.

Eastern Conference -

Regular Season:

1. Cavs
2. Knicks

3. Magic
4. Hawks
5. Pistons
6. Heat

7. Pacers
8. Celtics
9. Bucks
10. Sixers

Playoffs:

1st round: #1Cavs beat #8 Celtics, #2Knicks beat #7Pacers, #6Heat beat #3Magic, #5Pistons beat #4Hawks

2nd Round: #1Cavs beat #5Pistons, #6Heat beat #2Knicks

ECF: #1Cavs beat #6Heat in 6 games

Duffman100 wrote:

kg01 wrote:

Duffman100 wrote:
I think there's a bit more nuance than this.

I'm sure you're right, but still.... the money is the money.

Being expensive and bad is a terrible combination.

The problem with the Raptors is we don't know if they're 'bad'. This where some of (and not all) of the nuance comes into play.

We know a team that wasn't trying to win last year and was playing their rookies and 3rd stringers high minutes won 30 games. We know that a lot of the upcoming season is dictated by the health of Quickley and Ingram.

They're the biggest range of outcome teams in the NBA. They could win 32-34 games, they could be in the 43-48 range. It's really tough to say.

Thanks for elaborating. I can see where a believer may think the roster just hasn't been sort of 'activated' towards winning yet.

I'm kinda down on some of the players (Barnes particularly) so I just don't see it. But I get where you're coming from.

Tier 1: Cavs and Knicks. I don't trust Mike Brown but Knicks just made the ECF, so they have talent. As for the Cavs, it's Finals or break that core up; they're miles beyond the 2nd apron.

Tier 2: Magic and Pistons. Regular season try-hards but their coaches can't coach their way out of a wet paper bag.

Tier 2.5: Hawks. They seem to have a deep squad, with tons of length. We'll see if they can stay healthy and put it all together.

Tier 3: Pacers, Celtics, and Bucks. Wildcards due to losing key pieces to health or transactions. Carlisle is a heck of a coach, so he can probably coach up what is there.

Honorable Mention: 76ers, if these guys can stay healthy, and that's a big if, they could easily be a top 4 seed in the East. I just don't want to bet on it if Embiid's knees are bone on bone and if PG13 is actually washed.