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tmorgan wrote:C’mon, this is just ridiculous. It’s just comparing regular season net rating to opponents.

The Celtics and Thunder score the lowest because they were the best team in the league for their championship year with the highest net rating. That’s it. Nothing more.

This is the intellectual equivalent of saying the Cavs played the weakest schedule in the NBA last year. They did, but only because the were the best team in the weaker conference. Means nothing.

LeBronSpaghetti wrote:The Celtics did have an extremely weak path, everyone knows this. And everyone they faced was decimated by injuries. They were still an outstanding team and it was as legit a championship as any. Also the Raptors played the warriors without KD in the finals. Do these stats take that into account?

tmorgan wrote:Isn’t this more of a statement that:

Based on regular season results from that year, the Raptors were the biggest overall underdog to win a title recently?

tmorgan wrote:C’mon, this is just ridiculous. It’s just comparing regular season net rating to opponents.

The Celtics and Thunder score the lowest because they were the best team in the league for their championship year with the highest net rating. That’s it. Nothing more.

This is the intellectual equivalent of saying the Cavs played the weakest schedule in the NBA last year. They did, but only because the were the best team in the weaker conference. Means nothing.

YogurtProducer wrote:This is a bad post that still somehow comes to the right conclusion.

Raptors are the strongest championship team since 2019. Only team I say is close and would be a toss up is OKC.

Ssj16 wrote:I noticed on these boards that there have been many claims to weaker vs stronger playoff runs. For instance, I've seen several posters who claim the Denver run was one of the weaker playoff runs in recent history.

I decided to look at the Net Rating of each playoff Champ and the teams they faced and decided to compare how each of the playoff runs stacked up against each other. Net Rating was the best advanced stat I could find that I believe best showcased the current strength of each team during each playoff run. This does not take into account injuries.

Net Rating Score ( Champion net rating subtracting the sum of all the competing team's net ratings; lower score = stronger playoff)
1) Raptors: 5.3
2) Warriors: 6.5
3) Bucks: 15.8
4) Nuggets: 16.3
5) Lakers: 17
6) Thunder: 27.9
7) Celtics: 28

Net Rating Score Weighed based on Rounds (see spoiler for formula; lower score = stronger playoff
1) Raptors: -260.2
2) Warriors: -242.9
3) Bucks: -237.2
4) Nuggets: -226.6
5) Lakers: -219.4
6) Thunder: -214.5
7) Celtics: -213.5

Net Rating with No First Round Score (first round can skew scores since these teams generally have a drastically lower score than teams in further rounds; lower score = stronger playoff
1) Raptors: -9.7
2) Bucks: -4.4
3) Warriors: -1.7
4) Lakers: 6.6
5) Nuggets: 7.1
6) Thunder: 8.6
7) Celtics: 10.8

Opponent Strength Score with No First Round (higher score = stronger playoff)
1) Raptors: 15.3
2) Bucks: 9.7
3) Warriors: 6.9
4) Denver: 1.6
5) Lakers: 0.4
6) Thunder: -0.2
7) Celtics: -2.1

Overall Score based on all above rankings (Ordered from strongest to weakest playoff run; tie breaker in spoiler)
1) Raptors
2) Warriors
3) Bucks
4) Nuggets
5) Lakers
6) Thunder
7) Celtics

Spoiler:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2019.html
2018-2019 Championship Run Net Ratings
Raptors 5.6
Warriors 3.5
Bucks 8.7
76ers 3.1
Magic -15

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2020.html
2019-2020 Championship Run Net Ratings
Lakers 7
Heat 2
Nuggets -2.4
Rockets 0.8
Trailblazers. -10.4

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2021.html
2020-2021 Championship Run Net Ratings
Bucks 5.3
Suns 4.7
Hawks -1.5
Nets 6.5
Heat -20.2

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2022.html
2021-2022 Championship Run Net Ratings
Warrriors 5.2
Celtics 3.7
Mavericks 0.8
Grizzlies 2.4
Nuggets -8.2

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2023.html
2022-2023 Championship Run Net Ratings
Nuggets 8.7
Miami 1.6
Lakers 2.4
Suns -2.4
Timberwolves. -9.2

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2024.html
2023-2024 Championship Run Net Ratings
Celtics 8.7
Mavericks 2.8
Pacers 1.1
Cavaliers -6
Heat -17.2

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2025.html
2024-2025 Championship Run Net Ratings
Thunder 8.4
Pacers 2
Minnesota 2.8
Nuggets -5
Grizzlies -19.3

Formula for Net Rating Score Weighed based on Rounds:
Each net rating was adjusted by adding 21 to ensure all net ratings were positive numbers.
Applied Fibonacci sequence to weight against the net rating of each round the champ faced:
Round 1 multiplied by 1
Round 2 multiplied by 2
Round 3 multiplied by 3
Round 4 multiplied by 5
Subtracted the the sum of the weighted Round 1 through 4 scores from the championship Net Rating score

Formula for Overall Score Tie Breaker
To break tie between Bucks and Warriors the following formula was used:

Net Rating Score + Net Rating Score Weighed based on Rounds + Net Rating with No First Round Score - Opponent Strength Score with No First Round